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NEARUSDT on the Brink: Will You Miss the Next Big Move?Yello, Paradisers! Are you ready for the potential breakout with #NEARUSDT? The charts are heating up, and now’s the time to focus! Let’s dive into what’s happening. 💎#NEARUSDT is currently testing a key resistance zone at $5.473. If the price manages to break above this level, there’s a strong probability of a bullish move ahead. We’ve been tracking #NEARProtocol for some time as it respected a descending resistance, and now, after finally breaking through, the price is testing this critical level amid growing bullish sentiment. 💎 For the bullish scenario to materialize, #NEAR must break above $5.473. Should this happen, the next target lies at the internal resistance zone of $6.524, which could trigger a strong rally. However, if the price fails to break above the resistance, we could see a bullish rebound from the lower demand zone between $4.574 and $4.352. 💎 Stay alert, as a breakdown below the demand area, confirmed by a daily close, could challenge the bullish outlook and lead to further declines. Stay focused, patient, and disciplined, Paradisers! MyCryptoParadise iFeel the success🌴
Long
by MyCryptoParadise
9/24 Markets on Edge: Is the Bull Run Here to Stay?Overview: It might seem like the markets have been rallying for the last four trading days, following the recent interest rate cut. The AMEX:SPY formed a bullish spinning top candlestick pattern on Friday and Monday, followed by another green candle on Tuesday. We remain in a bullish trend with no clear signs of reversal. However, it's worth noting that we still haven’t reached a new all-time high and haven't posted a solid green candle engulfing previous ones. The AMEX:SPY hasn’t even surpassed the highest trading price recorded last Thursday. Essentially, we're hovering at the market's peak, deciding whether to kick off a new bull cycle or face a potential downturn. NASDAQ:QQQ also closed positively, but the candlestick pattern is similar to SPY. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve reported the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, which tracks housing price increases in 20 major U.S. cities. While housing is still appreciating, it’s doing so at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. In July, it rose by 5.9% year-over-year, compared to an expected 6% and the previous reading of 6.5%. The primary driver of home prices is borrowing costs, particularly reflected in mortgage rates. Typically, a 1% increase or decrease in mortgage rates correlates with a 10% change in property values. As interest rates decrease, so do mortgage rates, influencing home prices. Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates dropped from 7.22% in May to 6% in mid-September, translating to a 12.2% increase in housing prices. Therefore, the Case-Shiller Index could see a significant rise, especially if the Fed cuts rates twice more by year-end. The Consumer Confidence Index, distinct from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, also dropped to 98.7 in September, nearing the bottom of its narrow range over the past two years. This is the steepest decline since August 2021, with all five components of the index deteriorating. Consumers’ views on current business conditions and the labor market have turned negative. Additionally, expectations for future labor market conditions, business conditions, and income have all worsened. While this drop is significant, it’s not as severe as during the Dotcom Bubble or the Subprime Mortgage Crisis. Fidelity and Bitwise are slowly dipping their toes into the BTC ETF market, while Grayscale and BlackRock remain on the sidelines. The ETH ETF remains untouched. It’s possible that the recent surge in buying is driven by retail investors. We might need to reconsider the importance of ETF metrics, as they’ve become just another market participant without any apparent insider knowledge. For instance, BlackRock made its largest BTC ETF purchase between February 27th and March 14th when BTC's price ranged from $51K to $73K. On March 12th, they purchased $849 million worth of BTC at a closing price of $71.4K, leaving them in a loss since then. Weekly : This week’s BINANCE:BTCUSD candle is above the Bollinger Band moving average, but it’s still intersecting the $64 k weekly level. If this price holds, it could signal a major bullish trend. For now, it’s still leaning bearish. Daily : Tuesday’s price action pushed us above the weekly $64 k level. The daily candle appears stronger compared to the previous four spinning tops. RSI is approaching overbought territory but hasn’t crossed the 70 mark, and there are no MACD divergences. 4-Hour : The bearish MACD divergence persists, now visible in RSI as well. Three consecutive candles are holding above $64K. Lower timeframes will reveal how many attempts were made to break this level and if previous resistance has turned into support. The price is at the top of the Bollinger Bands. 1-Hour ): On Tuesday, September 24th, at 10 AM, there was a decisive candle indicating an unsuccessful attempt by American bears to break the $62.9K level. The VR VP point of control is precisely at this level, with significant bullish buy orders absorbing the selling pressure. Volume nearly doubled to 1.1 million on Coinbase, compared to an average of 278k. Subsequent candles showed higher volume and a higher low. Once the selling pressure was absorbed, the price began to rise and broke the resistance level. Since the breakout, the price has tested the old resistance level three times but successfully rebounded, closing higher above the Bollinger Band moving average. This breakout was confirmed by a CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) bullish divergence, available on TradingView. It shows the difference between buying and selling pressure in the market, especially on the 1-hour timeframe. During the 10, 11, and 12 AM candles, a higher low was formed compared to the previous price low, but the CVD indicated a lower low. This suggests that even with immense selling pressure, buy orders were absorbing the sell orders, pushing the price higher. Alts Relative to BTC: While major market indices and BTC might appear flat and indecisive, altcoins are experiencing explosive growth. Since the rate cut, the following alts have surged: TAO: +70% SUI: +50% APT: +37% NEAR: +30% RNDR: +30% Alts had ample room for growth as many collapsed faster than BTC. In early September, SUI and NEAR reached their "BTC ETF approval" price levels from January 10th, while APT hit its 2023 bottom price. It still has another 9% to go before reaching its BTC ETF price. Bull Case: BTC holds $64 k, all selling pressure is absorbed, and liquidity floods the market, especially after China joined the rate-cutting spree, reducing their rate from 2.3% to 2.0%. Bear Case: It could all be one big bull trap, with deeper economic issues globally leaving people with less disposable income to gamble on speculative assets. Fear and Greed Index: 52.83. Increasing but still in the neutral zone. There's a notable divergence: check the Fear and Greed Index chart on CoinMarketCap. The last two lows were on August 5th and September 6th, yet BTC posted a higher second low, indicating irrational fear in the market. Keep an eye on this divergence for future reference.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Alikze »» CELR | Triple Bottom🔍 Technical analysis: Triple Bottom - In the weekly time frame, a triple bottom has been formed at Fibo 0.78. - According to the return candle in the mentioned area, we expect at least this motivational wave to continue its growth until the neckline. - This climb can have at least 50 to 60 percent profit yield. 💎 Also, if the 0.78 area is broken, the bullish scenario will be invalidated. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»«««
Long
by alikze
9/23 Crypto Faces Gloomy October.Overview: The AMEX:SPY closed higher last week, but Thursday’s candlestick pattern resembles a bearish abandoned baby. What’s more concerning is the weekly chart showing a bearish MACD divergence—while the price keeps hitting all-time highs, both the MACD and signal lines are trending lower. Has this divergence played out already, as seen in the first week of August, or is it still ahead of us? You may have noticed that we only have two more rate cuts left for the year. Why not three, with three months remaining? The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets only eight times a year. There’s no meeting in October to give time for economic analysis and to avoid overreacting to short-term fluctuations. Conveniently (for bears), September and October are typically weak months for markets. Remember, FTX collapsed in November 2022, bottoming out the crypto market in November-December. The next FOMC rate cut is expected on November 7th, leaving BINANCE:BTCUSD bulls on their own for the next 44 days. However, this cut is not guaranteed. If inflation remains high or increases, the cut could be postponed. Rate cuts are a quantitative easing tool used to support a slowing economy—not one that’s running at full speed. This Friday, the FED will release the PCE index, which could influence their decision. The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows a 55.2% chance of a one-basis-point cut and a 44.8% chance of a two-basis-point cut. In recent letters, we suggested a price increase in late September. Now might be the time to take some profits and wait to see if we can break resistance and establish a new bull trend, or if this is the peak before a downturn. Weekly: BTC closed the week with a strong green candle, slightly above the Bollinger Band Moving Average (BB MA) but still below the highs of late August. The trend remains bearish. Daily: We’re overdue for a correction back to the BB MA, with targets at $61.4k and $60k. The price is hovering around the major resistance level of GETTEX:64K , which is also a key monthly level. The last three days have formed three consecutive dojis, indicating market indecision after 15 days of bullish momentum. Breaking this resistance without first testing the $61.4k support is unlikely. 4-Hour: Weekend price action shows BTC reaching its peak between Thursday and Friday night, pulling back by 2.6% before U.S. bulls prevented further losses. Despite pushing higher on Sunday, Asian bears applied pressure again. Bearish divergence between the price peaks and the MACD-signal line suggests a potential downturn. 1-Hour: At 10:00 a.m. NYC time, BTC posted a big green candle, supported by strong U.S. buying. However, since Monday midnight, the price has been dropping, while the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) line remains green and positive. This indicates that despite strong buying pressure, hidden sell orders are absorbing the demand, suggesting: Absorption by Sellers: Large sell orders are preventing the price from moving up. Distribution Phase: Larger market participants may be offloading positions while smaller traders buy, creating an illusion of demand. Potential Reversal: This could signal a potential reversal if the selling pressure eases. Altcoins Relative to BTC: ETH has outperformed BTC, along with NEAR, TAO, APT, AR, RNDR, and AAVE. SUI, BNB, and FTM showed weaker pumps, while SOL appeared the weakest. Bull Case: If the Fed’s two-basis-point cut doesn’t lead to higher inflation and jobless claims continue to rise, it could boost speculative assets. Other central banks around the world may follow suit, increasing global M2 money supply. Bear Case: Until the next Fed rate cut, there’s little to support BTC’s current price against bearish pressure. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 50.64—neutral sentiment. Overall, the market remains in a delicate balance, while weekly trend is still bearish.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/21 SP500 Retraces from ATH; Crypto Market Faces Weekend RisksOverview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed slightly lower yesterday, printing a red candle after reaching an all-time high. The NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t show much divergence and failed to close above its August 22nd high. ETF flows indicate another day of retail investors buying BINANCE:BTCUSDT , while BlackRock remained inactive. No buying of ETH ETFs either. Weekly: Bitcoin’s price didn’t move much and stayed in the same range on the chart. It continues to hover around the GETTEX:64K weekly resistance level, but so far, has been unable to break above it. Interestingly, this price rejection at GETTEX:64K mirrors a similar pattern observed on August 25th. Unlike the previous rejection where wicks extended above the resistance, this current attempt hasn't even breached the level. With a solid green week behind us, there’s a high probability of a Sunday sell-off as traders might take profits ahead of the weekend. Daily: The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the GETTEX:64K resistance level. If this marks the local top, it will be a lower high compared to August 25th, indicating potential weakness in the bullish trend. The weekend could see some selling pressure as traders lock in gains. 4-Hour: RSI has been in the overbought zone and is now cooling off, but no MACD divergences are indicating a trend reversal at this point. The trend remains upward, but caution is advised. 1-Hour: No visible divergences in either RSI or MACD, suggesting no immediate signs of a trend reversal. Altcoins Relative to BTC: No significant divergences were observed in the altcoin market relative to BTC. However, some coins are showing strong performances, like SUI and APT. Bear case: We've reached a peek, and from now its bear territory. Fear and greed index : 49.76 and started to flatten out the curve. Prediction : Sell off on weekend. Opportunities: TAO broke out of its resistance level. Correction down to $361 level is expected.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/20 SP500 Hits New ATH While QQQ Lags Behind by 4.2%Overview: The SP500 finally broke its all-time high (ATH), despite a red candle on Wednesday. Meanwhile, QQQ still has another 4.2% to go before reaching its record. Fidelity and Ark were busy accumulating their average amounts of BTC yesterday, while Grayscale and BlackRock remained on the sidelines. Only a modest $5.2 million went into ETH from BlackRock, suggesting they’re cautiously dollar-cost averaging into their preferred assets. TA Weekly: Congratulations, Bulls! The $61.4k level was successfully breached, but the price faced resistance at the next level of $64k. It’s impressive to see how the price reacts to the weekly levels shown on our charts. Since the rate cut, Bitcoin has gained up to +6.60%, currently holding at +4.30%. Although these are modest numbers for crypto, they’re certainly better than a downturn. The weekly chart shows a wick above the Bollinger Band MA, but the current closing price sits exactly at the BB MA of $62.6k, keeping the trend bearish. Daily: After reaching $63.8k yesterday, BTC is now retracing, likely aiming to establish new support at $61.4k. 4-Hour: RSI is overbought at 71.55 and has already begun to correct, as evidenced by the last three red candles. 1-Hour: MACD shows a bearish divergence. We expect BTC to dip to $61.4k and form a new support level. Altcoins vs. BTC: TAO and SUI are leading the gains, with SUI reaching an all-time high in volume, signaling potential insider buying. ETH is up 3.79%, SOL up 6.3%, and TAO up 10%. Bull Case: The rate cut has boosted risky assets, but we need to ensure this isn't just a short-term rally and that BTC can hold the support level. Bear Case: This could be a temporary pump. If the U.S. economy remains strong, the Fed may be hesitant to implement additional rate cuts. Fear and Greed Index: The index is at 48.06, finally out of the Fear territory. Overall, the market remains cautiously optimistic, but staying vigilant is key.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/18 Weak pump on Jerome's underpromise and overdelivery.Overview: Thank you, mighty Lord Jerome, for the pump! The Fed under-promised but over-delivered with a full 2 basis point rate cut. Looking at the 15-minute BINANCE:BTCUSD chart, when the decision was announced, the price spiked by just 1.7% before correcting. However, at 7 a.m. Shanghai time, four hours later, the price started to pump and has now broken the key weekly level of $61.4k. The question is, will the bulls defend this line and establish it as new support by bouncing from it? The first news of a possible September rate cut came out in late June. On June 21st, the Financial Times reported, "Fed on course for two cuts in 2024 starting in September" ( link ). At that time, Bitcoin was still correcting from its $72k peak. Fast forward two weeks, and on July 16th, CNBC reported that traders were pricing in a 100% chance of a September cut ( link ). Interestingly, BTC had reached its bottom four days before this news and then started its second-largest bull run wave. Yesterday, the CME FedWatch Tool spiked to indicate a 65% chance of a 0.50% rate cut, compared to just 10% in early August. From now on, we’ll be giving more weight to this indicator. Last Friday, on 9/13, we predicted, "With this week’s meteoric growth, Monday and Tuesday are expected to trade flat or slightly negative due to profit-taking before the volatility." Between Friday evening and Monday evening, BTC corrected by 4.9%. Technical Analysis: W: We’ve passed the important weekly level of $61.4k and need to either bounce from it or close the week above this level. The BB MA sits at $62.5k, so the trend remains bearish until that level is reached. This overlaps with the liquidation heatmap, which shows $22 million in liquidity built up. Indicators suggest we will reach that level. D: Since yesterday, we’ve confirmed a bullish trend after rebounding from $58.2k. RSI hasn’t hit the overbought level yet, and the MACD has been climbing since the sell-off on September 7th. Unfortunately, the volume hasn’t increased, even with this bullish macro event. Both the spot and futures markets are showing a lack of enthusiasm, with Open Interest falling since Friday’s high. 4h: As we mentioned yesterday, Jerome doesn’t care about bearish divergences. The current pump is defying technical analysis, which reminds us to avoid trading around major events like Fed meetings or earnings reports. 1h: RSI is hitting the overbought region for the second time in 36 hours—not a good sign. Altcoins vs. BTC: Weak reactions from ETH and SOL, but NEAR, SUI, and FTM are rocketing higher. Bull Case: Retail traders might see BTC printing lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish trend. Influencers are already preparing content about the next level being $44k and advising on how to stay solvent in a bear market. Remember the saying: “Be greedy when others are fearful.” Bear Case: The economy may not be doing as well as whales think. If it becomes clear that the rate cuts aren’t working, whales could start dumping, driving the price toward $44k. Fear and Greed Index: We’re at 40.44, officially out of Fear territory. Prediction: Expect the pump to continue for the rest of the week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/17 Expectation of two bases points cut increased to 65%. Overview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed higher despite forming a red daily candle, signaling potential intraday weakness or selling pressure, but the broader trend remains positive since the overall price closed higher than the previous day. This pattern suggests buyers were active, but sellers took control after the market opened, creating a bearish candle even with upward movement. Similarly, the NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t break previous highs but printed a similar candle. While BlackRock and Grayscale stayed on the sidelines, all other major funds loaded up on BINANCE:BTCUSD , pushing the day’s total to $186.8 million, 84% higher than the average BTC ETF volume of $102.3 million. Ethereum ( BINANCE:ETHUSD ) continues to struggle, with Grayscale selling ETH even on today’s green market day. Retail sales rose again, showing that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, keeping recession fears at bay. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the number of traders expecting a 0.50% rate cut has risen to 65%, compared to 50% at the end of last week and just 10% in early August. Technical Analysis: W: Despite recent gains, BTC remains in bearish territory, trading below the BB MA. Price touched the $61.4k weekly level during the Asian session but retraced. A rate cut could be a positive event, keeping BTC in its current range without major sell-offs. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains. D: BTC held the $58.4k level and bounced, signaling possible growth after the rate cut. 4h: BTC briefly hit overbought RSI at the $61.4k resistance level but was rejected. MACD shows a bearish divergence, but this may be overshadowed by the upcoming rate cut. 1h: Overbought RSI is cooling off now. Altcoins vs. BTC: Another day of divergence among altcoins. BTC grew by 3.6%, while ETH followed with 2%. SOL printed a doji candle, but NEAR outperformed with a 6.4% gain, bouncing off its support. SUI and TAO saw strong gains of 12.2%. Bull Case: The lack of a large sell-off by whales suggests confidence heading into the rate cut. BTC has been climbing since September 6th, and if the rate cut injects liquidity into the markets, some of that money may flow into risky assets like crypto. A postponement of recession fears could also lead to higher interest rates for longer, but this means more disposable income available for speculative investments. Bear Case: Despite the rate cut, the economy is slowing down, and a 0.50% rate cut represents only a 10% decrease in the current rate. Fear and Greed Index: The index rose slightly to 37.91, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the rate cut. Prediction: Short-term bullish for BTC, but expect range-bound movement or a drop in October.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
9/16 S&P 500 on the Rise: Awaiting Wednesday's Rate DecisionOverview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed higher, challenging its all-time high for the third time this month. At least it's not declining like it typically does in other Septembers. However, the NASDAQ:QQQ is stalling, showing a lower high but also forming a higher low. Both the SP500 and QQQ have seen diminishing volume over the last three days as everyone awaits the Fed’s rate cut decision on Wednesday. Meanwhile, BlackRock clients made a modest purchase of $15.8 million worth of BINANCE:BTCUSD , ending an 11-day stretch of no activity. Considering their average BTC purchase is $122 million, this can be rounded off to negligible. Total BTC flow across all ETFs was $12 million, far below the average of $101 million. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey revealed a growing general business conditions index, which rose by sixteen points to 11.5, turning positive for the first time in 2024. This signals increasing new orders and shipments, while delivery times and supply availability remained steady, and inventories leveled off. This is not ideal for those hoping for a two-basis-point rate cut. Technical Analysis: W: Holding strong at the $58.4k weekly level, which is the point of control for July, August, and half of September. This is a very significant support level. D: Holding the Bollinger Band moving average (BB MA), which, combined with the weekly point of control (POC), is crucial to maintain the short-term bullish trend. 4h & 1h: Both timeframes are holding the weekly level firmly. Alts Relative to BTC: No significant divergence was observed over the weekend or Monday. Previous divergence can be seen when BTC broke the $58.4k weekly level on September 13th. However, both BINANCE:ETHUSD and BINANCE:SOLUSD remain below levels they had broken on September 9th. Bull Case: If the weekly level holds, the price could bounce off support on Tuesday and rally higher in anticipation of lower interest rates. Bear Case: A continued lack of appetite for risky assets may lead to further sell-offs. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 34.15. While BTC holds its critical weekly price level, the Fear and Greed Index continues to decline, creating a divergence. Prediction: Not enough clear signals for a definite prediction. Opportunities: Any technical analysis signals may be invalidated by Wednesday’s price action. Mistakes: BINANCE:FTMUSDT surged, breaking through its resistance and gaining 6.36%, while most other altcoins remained flat.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
NEAR: Current Trends and InsightsNEAR Protocol is currently going through a period of volatility, with its price hovering around $3.89. Recent market trends show a mix of bearish sentiment and some cautious optimism among investors. Let’s break down the key indicators and levels influencing NEAR. Current Sentiment: NEAR is mostly bearish, having dropped 3.5% over the last 24 hours. This follows a minor recovery earlier in the month, highlighting the ongoing struggle to maintain upward momentum. Support and Resistance Levels Key Support: $3.43 – This level has been tested and is crucial in preventing further declines. A break below this could lead to increased selling pressure. Secondary Support: $3.60 – This level serves as an additional buffer in case of further price drops. Key Resistance: $4.08 – A breakout above this level could signal a potential reversal in trend, opening the door for bullish momentum. Secondary Resistance: $4.49 – If NEAR breaks through $4.08, this will be the next target for bullish movement. Short-Term Predictions Looking ahead, NEAR is likely to face challenges breaking through the $4.08 resistance. Analysts predict that if NEAR holds above the key support at $3.43, there could be opportunities for a rebound towards higher resistance levels in the coming weeks. Potential Price Range for September 2024: Minimum Price: $3.32 Average Price: $3.75 Maximum Price: $4.76 Market analysts are watching these levels closely as they may dictate NEAR’s short-term trajectory. Recent News Impacting NEAR Recent developments around partnerships and ecosystem growth in NEAR could help strengthen investor sentiment in the medium to long term. NEAR has been actively involved in collaborations aimed at improving DeFi capabilities and expanding user adoption, which may provide some resilience against the current bearish market. Call to Action For investors eyeing NEAR Protocol, now could be a strategic time to monitor the situation closely. With bearish sentiment dominating and key support levels being tested, it’s important to stay informed about market shifts and potential breakout signals. While NEAR is facing short-term challenges, its long-term potential remains promising due to its ecosystem growth and ongoing developer interest. Stay vigilant and carefully consider your investment strategies!
by MonoCoinSignal
9/15 Weeks Overview. Rate Cut Volatility or Bullish Opportunity?Overview: The VANTAGE:SP500 closed the second week of September with a strong green candle, completely retracing the previous week's red candle. The precision of this price action is impressive: the 1st week's open was at 5623, and the 2nd week's close was at 5626. The 1st week's close was at 5408, and the 2nd week's low was 5406. So, is this a bearish or bullish signal? Neither—it's volatility. There's uncertainty around whether we're headed for a recession or a soft landing. Will the Fed’s rate cut ignite a bull run or crash the market? One factor contributing to this week’s positive performance is favorable macroeconomic data, such as the CPI and PPI, which came in lower than expected and weren't revised down multiple times. Next week, all eyes will be on the Fed's interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM EST. This announcement will overshadow other key macro data, including US retail sales (trending up), building permits (trending down), and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (trending upward since January 2024). Current expectations are split, with a 48% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 52% chance of a 0.50% cut. The expectation of a two-basis-point cut has doubled in just a month. If the odds were skewed more heavily (90/10), the market could avoid volatility as the move would be priced in. However, in the current scenario, even a 0.25% rate cut could trigger a sell-off. Historical Context for Rate Cuts and Risky Assets: Looking back at how NASDAQ:QQQ performed after past rate cuts provides valuable insight: • July 31, 2019 to April 2020: Rates dropped from 2.40% to 0.05%. In the next three trading days, QQQ dropped 6%. However, it reached a new all-time high in 86 days and gained 22% in 202 days. This was supported by a strong labor market, with unemployment falling for eight consecutive years. The temporary decline was due to COVID shutdowns. • September 18, 2007 to December 2008: Rates fell from 5.25% to 0.15%. QQQ soared 1.9% on the day of the cut and gained 12.2% over the next 42 days. However, the Subprime Mortgage Crisis ensued, leading to a 52% drop in 380 days. The labor market was weak, with unemployment rising for four months before the cut. • January 3, 2001 to July 2003: Rates declined from 6.5% to 1%. This marked the collapse of the Dot-com bubble. QQQ had already corrected by 56% over 280 days. While it rallied 32% in the next 21 days, the downtrend resumed, dropping another 61.4% over the next 645 days. Unemployment had bottomed eight months before and started rising one month before the cut. More weight should be given to the 2007 scenario, as the current labor market resembles both 2007 and 2001. The 2001 rate cut holds less relevance since QQQ tracks tech stocks, which were uniquely impacted during the Dot-com bubble. Strategic Outlook: Based on historical data, one could allow the market correction to finish on Monday or Tuesday, then take a long position on your favorite altcoin for 1–2 weeks—but no longer than that. In terms of ETF flows, historically, if weekend was red, Monday opens with more sell off driven by ETFs. BTC Timeframes: W: Needs to stay above $58.4 to maintain short-term bullishness. However, given the upcoming volatility, the chances are slim. D: As of Sunday evening, whales started selling off, likely anticipating next week’s volatility. As mentioned in Friday's forecast, "Short-term correction to $58.4, then volatility during the rate cut week." The current correction from Friday’s highs is 3.5%. 4h: The sell-off began at 4 PM EST and has now corrected to the weekly level of $58.4. 1h: The price has just reached the weekly level, and RSI is oversold, presenting a short-term bullish opportunity back to the $59.8 level. Altcoins Relative to BTC: The divergence continues, with altcoins correcting more than BINANCE:BTCUSD . While BTC has corrected 3.5%, BINANCE:ETHUSD is down 6.7%, and BINANCE:SOLUSDT is down 6.4%. Bull Case: We are in a 2019-like scenario, where speculative assets rise for several months after a rate cut. Bear Case: We are in a 2007-like scenario, where the labor market continues to weaken, corporate revenues shrink, and the recession plays out over a couple of years. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 35.64 and trending down. As long as the index remains below 40, it's a good time to start dollar-cost averaging into top altcoins like ETH, SOL, BINANCE:NEARUSDT , BINANCE:BNBUSDT , and BINANCE:AAVEUSDT . Prediction: We’ve already corrected to a relatively strong weekly level. The only prediction that can be made is a short-term bounce, followed by more volatility. Opportunities: BINANCE:FTMUSDT has reached a higher price on the 4-hour chart, but its RSI and MACD are trending down, signaling a bearish divergence. This could be invalidated by a sudden spike in BTC.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Sept 6. Start DCA'ing these altsOverview: The FRED:SP500 is down, NASDAQ:QQQ is down even more, and COINBASE:BTCUSD has dropped. Everything is red! Or wait… BINANCE:SUIUSDT is up! Could this still be the effects of the Grayscale Trust, and how much longer can SUI defy the overall market? Previous Grayscale picks like BINANCE:NEARUSDT and BINANCE:TAOUSDT aren’t performing as well on red days like yesterday. The Fed reported fewer new jobs added in August—lower than expected, even after multiple revisions. This was also fewer than the job additions in August of the past few years. Quantitative tightening is in full swing! These metrics signal a potential path to a rate cut, but large economies like the U.S. don’t pivot easily, especially not with just a move from 5.50% to 5.25%. Higher unemployment and fewer job openings will likely persist for months, possibly even quarters. Yet, no federal bailouts? No major bankruptcies? Meanwhile, commercial real estate is still struggling, with San Francisco’s office vacancy rate rising to 37%, up from 36.7% in Q1 2024. BTC ETFs are seeing 9 consecutive days of outflows. BINANCE:ETHUSD has seen consistent selling throughout August, except for a slight uptick on August 28th when Blackrock bought slightly above the original Grayscale Trust level. Believe it or not, this is when whales start dollar-cost averaging (DCA) back into the market. So why is the market falling if big players are buying? These deep pockets unloaded their portfolios and secured profits early in the year when green candles were stacking up. The current selling pressure is from retail traders, as reflected in ETF trends. If you still have cash (or those precious paychecks), this could be a good time to spread it out into 10-15 weekly buy orders. Don't try to catch the exact bottom—just remember the old adage: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." W: It’s only the first week of a bloody September, and BTC is already nearing the $52.15k weekly level. Sunday might be calm, with a potential bounce back to $55.9k. But watch out for Sunday evening (U.S. Eastern time) when the Asian bears wake up. D: Friday closed lower than August 5th. This is the third time we’re testing the $52-54k range—July 5, August 5, and now September 6. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. The worrying sign: yesterday’s volume was much lower than the previous two occurrences. No need to look far; volume has been rising over the last 7 days, confirming bearish sentiment. 4h: RSI dipped below 30 at 4 PM Eastern, but since then it’s bounced back 1.5%. Looking back at July 5 and August 5, we can see a key level around $54.4k (though this doesn’t hold on the daily chart). This is the point where decisions must be made. 1h: Price action is moving sideways. Alts relative to BTC: ETH has dropped more than BTC and other altcoins, falling to levels not seen since January 11th when the BTC ETF was approved. The argument that Layer 2 solutions diminish ETH’s "sound money" status isn’t helping. Bearish. On the bright side, APT has been trading below BTC ETF demand for 91 days and could be a good option for DCA. SUI shrugged off the recent sell-off and posted a 5.13% green candle, making it another solid contender alongside APT, as both are already below BTC ETF price levels. Bull case: Everyone who could sell has already sold. Now, only the diamond hands remain. Bear case: The capital allocators have finished realizing gains, and retail traders are finally waking up to the fact that the bull run has been canceled. Fear and Greed Index: 25.97 – an all-time low for 2024 and 2023. Prediction: A short-term rebound over the weekend, followed by further declines next week. Opportunities: Check out weekly and 4-hour divergences in major altcoins. Are you shorting TON yet? Mistakes: The bullish MACD divergence didn’t play out for BINANCE:SOLUSD , BINANCE:ARUSD , and BINANCE:AVAXUSDT . When big brother (BTC) makes a move, it doesn’t matter what the technical analysis says for altcoins.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Trade Setup: NEAR Long Position (Range Support Test)Market Context: NEAR is testing the bottom of the range level of support, providing a favorable opportunity for a long trade. Trade Setup: Entry: Long spot position at $3.50 - $3.80 support level. Take Profit: First target: $4.30 Second target: $5.00 - $5.40 Final target: $6.00 - $6.50 Stop Loss: Just below $3.40 📊 This setup aims to leverage the support level for potential upside, with clearly defined profit targets and a tight stop loss to manage risk effectively. #NEAR #CryptoTrading #SupportLevel
Long
by Richtv_official
Sept 3Overview: As we wrote on Sept 1st: "Tuesday brings a wave of bears." It's been a strong start to the week for bears. The VANTAGE:SP500 is down 2.12%, pushing aside hopes for new all-time highs and forming a pattern resembling a double top. The riskier NASDAQ:QQQ dropped even more, correcting 3.04%, further confirming bearish sentiment. Both of these corrections were preceded by their respective futures ( CME_MINI:ES1! and CME_MINI:NQ1! ) crashing 5 hours before the market opened, wiping out Friday's gains. Immediately after the stock market fell, BTC followed. We are now below the critical $58.4k weekly level, which had been tested many times. BTC even touched and bounced perfectly from the next weekly level of $55.8k. The new trading range is $55.8k - $58.4k. We conclude that this price action is likely due to insiders dumping assets or securing profits ahead of the Fed’s jobs report scheduled for Wednesday. One issue with the new $55.8k level is that it isn’t as strong as the previous level since it hasn't been tested as much. It's also away from the point of control (based on the volume profile) on all timeframes (1h, 4h, W), meaning it's not where the whales are trading. We likely won’t stay at this level for long. Global liquidity has resumed its upward climb after an 8-day decline, which perfectly mirrored the last BTC bull trap (yellow line on our chart). W: The week opened lower than the August 5th closing. Bearish. D: Played out as expected, hitting the BB MA at $59.8k on Monday, then dropping to the lower band at $55.5k. After bouncing off the lower support band, the price should naturally return to $58.4k to establish it as resistance before continuing the downtrend. 4h: At the lower band. RSI is close to 20 and hasn't crossed the 50 mark in the last 7 days. Bullish, unless Wednesday's Fed report knocks out the markets completely. 1h: What is less visible on the 4h chart is clearer on the 1h chart. A bullish MACD divergence is forming, and RSI is below 80. Target: $58.4k. Alts relative to BTC: COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , and BINANCE:TONUSDT have declined lower than the August 4th closing. COINBASE:NEARUSD and BINANCE:ARUSDT haven’t yet, but they’re not far off. Bullish whales are keeping COINBASE:SUIUSD afloat despite strong headwinds. Bull case: All macroeconomic data has already been priced in, and we are at the bottom of the market. Whales have likely finished taking profits and will stop selling to retail traders, easing selling pressure. When the market looks this bearish, that's often when it pulls an "UNO Reverse" and starts pumping to new highs. We need to see full capitulation, like on August 5th, to target at least a short-term rebound. Bear case: Continuous confirmation of bearish sentiment: lower lows, lower highs. Fear and Greed Index: 34. Congratulations! We are officially in the fear zone. Historically, buying at this level tends to be profitable. If you start diligently DCAing while in Fear territory, you won't go broke. Prediction: BTC will likely spike up short-term to either the BB MA or the upper band, followed by a continuation of the downtrend. Opportunities: Weekly and 4h divergences in major altcoins: COINBASE:SUIUSD couldn’t hold its weekly level, which has now become resistance. BINANCE:TONUSDT next target is $2.48 (-46.5%). BINANCE:ARUSDT next target is $10.8 (-50%). COINBASE:SOLUSD and BINANCE:NEARUSDT both show 4h MACD divergence and are both at weekly levels. If BTC can trade sideways for 5-7 days, there are bullish opportunities in these two coins.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
Alikze »» TIA | Ready to pullback to the broken structure🔍 Technical analysis: Ready for a pullback from the liquidity zone to the broken structure - According to the analysis of the previous post , TIA currency is moving in a downward channel. - As can be seen, lower floors and ceilings are forming, which further reinforces the bearish view. - Currently, in the 1D time frame, it is in the liquidity zone, which can target 3.17 with a pullback to the neckline and then the green box zone. - Therefore, in the case of a pullback to the broken structure and selling pressure in the Fibo area of ​​1.618, it can touch the mentioned targets. 💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it can break the neck line, it will have the ability to grow up to the supply area of ​​the previous ceiling and the ceiling of the channel. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:TIAUSDT
Short
by alikze
1
Alikze »» SUI | Daily FVG gap🔍 Technical analysis: Daily FVG gap - According to the analysis presented in the previous post, after creating demand in the green box area, it grew to the supply area. - Currently, according to the structure formed in the supply area, a twin roof with a shorter roof is observed. - But in the 8H time frame, it is moving in a descending channel. Demand has also been met at the bottom of the channel. - Therefore, according to the FVG gap in the 1D time frame, if the selling pressure continues, it can make a correction to the green box area and retest it to fill the gap. 💎 Alternative scenario: also, if he can break the middle of the channel upwards, he can retest the supply area again. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:SUIUSDT
Short
by alikze
Alikze »» FET | Bearish Flag🔍 Technical analysis: Bearish Flag - In the analysis presented in the weekly Time, after a corrective trend up to the major ceiling area, it encountered demand, which led to a growth of more than 80%. - Currently, in the 4H time frame in an ascending channel, in the middle area of ​​the channel, as you can see in the chart, a bearish flag has been formed. - Therefore, due to the failure of the supply zone, which is also recorded as a rejection candle, it can have a correction to the origin of movement after exiting the short-term ascending channel or the flag as high as the previous leg. 💎 Alternative scenario: In addition, if it can stabilize above the supply zone, the bearish flag pattern will be invalidated and it can continue up to the top of the growth channel. 🛑 Resistance: 1.172 🟢 Support: 0.78 »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:FETUSDT
Short
by alikze
Alikze »» BNB | Support zone failure🔍 Technical analysis: Support zone failure - In the 4H time frame, after not being able to break the supply area, it has faced selling pressure. - Currently, a bullish pattern is observed, which has extended to the supply area. - Therefore, any pullback to a broken structure can face selling pressure again. - So we should see an increase in selling pressure in the supply area to continue the corrective lag until the liquidity area. - In addition, in case of breaking the liquidity area, the correction can continue up to the specified areas and Fibo 2.618. Alternative scenario: In addition, if it can break and stabilize the supply area upwards, it can have a retest to the next supply area. 🛑Range of resistance or supply area: 531-547 🟢 Support area: 468-464 »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support. Best Regards,❤️ Alikze. »»»«««»»»«««»»»««« BINANCE:BNBUSDT
Short
by alikze
Sept 2Overview: Labor Day is over, and yesterday the bulls came out strong, pushing COINBASE:BTCUSD back into its trading range, above the $58.4k level. But whose bulls were they—American or Asian? Volume data from Coinbase shows 4.3k for the BTC/USD pair, compared to 10.7k, 8.5k, and 12.1k over the last three Mondays. These numbers are much higher than those for the BTC/USDT pair, indicating it wasn't American bulls who saved the day. On the other hand, Binance reports higher numbers for the BTC/USDT pair, with 23k, 19.4k, 22.8k, and 37.0k for the last three Mondays. Two lessons learned: 1. Check the provider of your chart data and what pair you are analyzing, especially if you're tracking volume or any volume-related indicators such as Volume-Weighted Average Price, volume profile, footprint, cumulative volume delta, etc. 2. The U.S. market honors workdays. Asian bulls came in strong and overpowered the bears. W: Back to the old trading range. Neutral. D: Under BB MA. Possible fake breakout (or fake recovery due to the U.S. holiday?). We'll find out today when the U.S. market opens in a couple of hours. 4h: It was the 5th attempt to break the BB MA, and it succeeded. Now we're at the top of the BB channel, above the most recent high but stalling at the next one, near the point of control. Neutral. 1h: MACD divergence is starting to appear. Bearish. Alts relative to BTC: Altcoin weakness compared to BTC continues to widen. BTC returned to its trading range, and on the daily chart, it looks like a bear trap. However, for major altcoins like COINBASE:ETHUSD , COINBASE:SOLUSD , and COINBASE:SUIUSD , their previous levels have become resistance. Neutral on BTC, bearish on altcoins. Bull case: Since we're holding the weekly range and a bear trend isn't confirmed (at least in the short term), stay bullish. Bear case: Altcoins are weaker, volume is low due to Labor Day, so Asian bulls were pushing up in a less liquid market. Fear and Greed Index: 46.78. Up a couple of points. Neutral. Prediction: The Fed has been revising many data points downward, indicating they might not fully understand what's happening, leading to a lack of trust in their estimates. This week's jobs data might come out much lower, which, combined with other factors, could crash the market. However, before that, we still have a full day of trading during which BTC might trade higher.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital