US100 / NDQWe close this candle below the 786 and I think we visit lows before June.
Gap could fill before moving lower, scaling into QQQ 6/17 puts, $330-340 strike Friday.
If we gap up Monday will add provided upper trend line is in tact.
NDQ
Comparing the Nasdaq, S&P, and the M2 money supplyThe current drawdown in the stock market may not appear like much when looking at a monthly chart, however when comparing to the money supply it tells a different story. From the peak of the dot com bubble the entire market is still down significantly when adjusted for all the money printing the fed has done.
NASDAQ BEARISH BIASNDQ = Current price @ 11,923
The Nasdaq has yet again rejected resistance at 12,560 for the 5th time now
and is heading back to previous support @ 11,699
The Nasdaq has been in a bearish trend since the war in Ukraine started
what is fueling the bearish move is actually inflation worries in the US as well as
poor Q1 reports from companies like Amazon, Netflix, etc.
We expect the Nasdaq to continue its bearish trend to at least 10,999 which is the
next major support level before reversing back to 12,000.
After that we expect a retracement back to 11,699 before continuing its bullish movement
and breaking the major down-trendline.
Short term key Buy levels for day traders
@ 11,699
@ 10,999
Long term the Nasdaq is always a buy if you are holding/Long-term trader
Note: this is just an analysis based on technical analysis & current events. All investments involve risk, our analysis and trading strategy does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make.
$AAPL Giving A Clear WarningAs you can see by the chart, I have labeled every time $AAPL has deviated from its current trend and what follows right after.
This has been a consistent pattern over the last decade and I believe today is no different.
Powell reaffirmed his fight for Price Stability yesterday and will continue to do so until the mission is accomplished.
50 Year High Inflation, War, FED hiking into a slowing economy, QT, Supply Chain shocks, Sanctions/Embargoes, Energy soaring, Gas at $4 in every state in America for the first time in history.
This is not Price Stability .
It is a funny thing really,
One of the most famous quotes in Investing is, "Don't fight the FED",
But everyone only seems to listen when this suggests higher prices.
Markets work in both ways.
I called something similar back on January 20th, you can see it here:
I think we potentially are finally seeing it play out.
Good luck, everyone!
NDX Intraday Upward CorrectionThe Nasdaq 100 index NDX confirmed an inverted head & shoulders pattern breakout on the hourly timeframe to support a short term upward correction that may test 13,100 supply area as a minimum target within the broader downward trend.
Nasdaq 100 climbed 320.53 points or 2.62 percent on Tuesday to settle at 12,564.11, just a few points off the day's high.
$SPX Bearish Harami on Daily chartI'm not that big on candlestick patterns, but a Bearish Harami is essentially a failed continuation of a prior bullish session(s) or rally.
SPX posted a bullish close on the 12th and the 13th, but failed to follow through with a third session on Monday. Instead you saw a choppy session where the bulls and bears tugged a bit intraday, but the SPX lost steam at the end of the session and posted a red candlestick.
It was also fairly indecisive so while one can say that it's a toss up for tomorrow, you'd rather bet on a continuation of the larger downward trend that we're in, rather than some sort of coin flip reversal.
Same daily stick pattern can be seen on the NDQ (Nasdaq 100) and RUT (Russell 2000).
05/16/2022 Pre Market ThoughtsMacro: Bearish
Micro: High Bullish Potential
I am more bullish than bearish currently.
I would like to see a start in APPL above 148.75. I think that can take us to 162 at the top. I think if Appl breaks though, we could see others like Carvana and Bill go up 30% to their respective supports.
I outline more of the specifics in the video.
I hope you all are doing well.
NASDAQ about to repeat the crash of Sept/Oct 2008?The selling in the market seems to be increasing by the day. It looks like we could see some support at the current price, but looking back at Sept 2008 shows that we could still be in for a serious drop. IMO, so far the patterns are similar, except this year's correction is far more aggressive. I noted on the cRSI where they seemed to have a similar pattern. I personally don't think the current trend line will hold for long and expect that we at least hit the 10,000 level. I think 7700 is possible because markets have a tendency to overshoot in both directions, just like the bull rally/bubble of the last 2 years was way above the green trading channel from 2009 bottom.
Here is an interesting look at the NASDAQ stocks above the 200 day SMA. As you can see, we still have more stocks that can go below the 200, and it can stay there for a while.
Nasdaq Timing a BounceZone of Major Support from 12130-12380 (Buy Zone)
Strong Bullish Divergence for the last 3 lows.
Stop losses below this zone keep safe from liquidity grabs inducing short-sellers at major support.
Strong Resistance 12780 (Alternatively if flipped should create strong support).
Further Resistance 13050
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Starting To Look Like The Third Wave Is Still To ComeHaving a look at the Nasdaq and what I have been saying for the last few weeks seems to be a strong possibility at this point in time. This is still not confirmed as yet but the sell off towards the end of last week shows strong supply at the 61.8% Fib retracement level. I'm still not keen to sell into this but should wave three play out, I will be looking for buy entries from the 12000 mark.
Interesting that the third wave target would put us at both a 30% retracement from ATH and a 50% Fib retracement from the high and last swing low in March 2020.
Happy Trading!
Linton
NASDAQ (NDQ): Bounce Or DieAnyone with two eyes can see price action is absolutely dreadful .
We have seen rejection after rejection. War is still raging, FED still hasn't done anything, and the market is begging to be saved.
This analysis is basically going to be a hedge against my bearish bias which I have strongly held for many months now as we have been heading into this unprecedented environment .
Going to go over just a few things as we head into the rest of the week. There will be some hidden gems throughout .
The first thing will be the elephant in the room which is this Monthly candle of Darkness ; This candle closes at the end of the week and I suspect the market is going to do everything it can to improve the close of it.
I know usually the strongest move dictates the trend and I do believe the trend is still Bearish (obviously) but a bounce here is very possible.
We have just endured the first series of earnings, they were about what I expected. Just enough to make it by, while Alphabet misses. Now as long as markets don't puke on open tomorrow, I suspect the market will be forward-looking once more, irrationally .
Nothing aside from Nuclear Warefare or Oil catastrophe is going to send the market spirally at this very moment.
Another thing that helps the case for a short-term bounce is the VIX : A really good rule of thumb for good R:R Entry is not when VIX is at support but rather when it is at resistance . VIX has bounced sharply to a zone of interest and there will be one of two outcomes. Breakdown = Bullish or Breakout = VERY Bearish
Also going to mention the DXY. I've been 100% against the crowd every step of the way when it comes to the US Dollar. I believe that money finds itself in the most efficient position at all times, which is why the saying "But there is still sidelined money" is just a complete Myth. This is also fundamentally why DXY has been soaring while everyone has been Bearish on it for months. Holding cash even with inflation at 8% has proven more efficient than holding anything in equity markets over the last 6 months. It is all laid out to understand.
That being said, as I'm still bullish on DXY just based on the number of technical breakouts and the environment we are in, I consider the possibility it sees some consolidation in this area. As money will creep back into assets, DXY will consolidate before any more big moves. This area is very reasonable to predict this.
The last thing I'll mention is the US02Y yield and its correlation with the FED and their decision behind Rates. It has become a belief of mine that Powell or the FED just simply follow the US02Y yield regarding its policy. You can accurately see it based on this chart. Not only this but it is reaching a point of Very Strong resistance after an unprecedented vertical rocket up.
To follow up on the US02Y for just a basic lesson, as the US02Y begins to top and reverse, this means (at least historically) the FED will begin walking back on the Hawkish rhetoric and the FED predicted Rate hikes would have peaked.
Ultimately meaning, markets will rise on this knowing there may be light at the end of the tunnel.
I can completely explain this occurrence logically but what I can't explain is how they fight inflation or avoid a hyperinflationary environment if they reverse policy without actually following through. Not to mention their planned QT.
For now, all I can say is trust the parallels here in the original chart above. The market loves them. Just have to navigate level to level from here on out. If a bounce happens here, it would also confirm the Bullish Divergence on the RSI.
Losing this level spell disaster in my opinion.
Hope this helps!
NASDAQ (NDQ): Is At Reactionary ZoneThis week is going to be a far more important week than I think most anticipate.
Some are assuming markets resume bullish after having previous strong bearish momentum.
Things are much more complicated. The number of fundamental factors bouncing around currently is not just a narrative, they are the driving forces in the market.
Currently, NDQ is risking falling further back into the channel it bullishly broke out of during the 2020 Boom .
This is not just any channel, this was formed in 2009 and has been respected ever since.
Another thing to take note of is the bullish divergence on the 3 Day RSI, which if it is lost will invalidate any bullish technicals.
In simple bull runs with no war and easy monetary policy, narratives are an illusion . It is just the emotions of investors talking.
But this time is not that. There are driving factors such as FED policy, Ukraine war, Sanctions/Embargoes, Roaring Inflation, High Energy, Extended housing Market, etc .
These have all come into the light at relatively the same time over the 6 months to a year.
Today is NOT like yesterday.
Usually, there are clear inflation hedges, bonds are the safe haven as well as precious metals , and this is right about the time the FED starts implementing Easy Monetary Policy ...
There is only one issue.... the FED hasn't even started yet!
Be cautious, adapt, and don't resist the overwhelming tide that is about to flow in.
Whether that is up or down .
NASDAQ (NDQ): Short Term Levels To Watch Keeping it simple again.
Nothing but technicals here.
Honestly, any price action before Earnings is just consolidation.
The next few days will be the deciding factor short term.
Elon rejuvenated the market today with his breath of fresh air in a climate saturated with restrictions and rules. Elon represents freedom, something we can ALL appreciate.
He will become the MOST hated person by the media now, mark my words...
Resistance:
~$13,900
~$14,700
Support:
~$13,000