Placed heavy short position on MSFT EODBased on the complexion of the market and weight of evidence of the market structure I continue to look for downward pressure.
I will be in this position up to this Friday; however, may choose to exit within 1-2 days.
Speaking of Friday: Friday, June 10th CPI Expectations.
I'm expecting to see a 1.6% increase for the month of May, which will all but destroy the narrative by the Fed that inflation is coming down and the worst is behind us.
Based on the M2 Money Supply and correlating that with money growth, GDP, and a new element total debt of the economy -- there is a tight correlation al the way back to the 1960's with these new formulations.
CPI is understating by ~ 10% which means we "should" be seeing further price increases in price inflation.
I do not believe we see the inflation peak until early 2023 where that would peak around 10.6%. I believe the Weight of the Evidence is Statistically on my side that we have not seen the end of price inflation.
This might push that barrel price of oil up above the $135 a barrel and push gasoline prices even higher.
The downward pressure goes for the high bets tech sector. If you go to the Facebook link (below and in my profile) you'll find some additional charts and annotations.
In Bear Markets, the weight of the evidence is when the bulls are unable to maintain and sustain market sentiment when the markets gap-up and they fail to control the narrative.
Microsoft (MSFT)
MSFT MICROSOFTA higher high has been formed suggesting a short term change in trend.
However, there is no confirmation until the $316 region is taken out.
As long as we remain below $316, expect bounces to be sold.
In the near term, I expect $250-$260 zone to be a good buying opportunity.
As long as last week's $246 low holds, expect dips to be bought for a move to 296-305 supply zone.
Bullish in short term, bearish long term (as long as we’re below 316)
Judgement Week for $SPX $SPY is Upon UsReally not sure what to expect, but the level of bearishness combined with a few gigantic stock splits ($AMZN splits Monday 6/6, $GOOGL 7/15, and $SHOP 6/22) could propel the marketing into the 4400 range. I believe that would be the MAXIMUM pain for bears, then continue down.
Reasons for my bullish short tern outlook.
1. $AMZN stock spilt on 6/6
2. Incredible amount of PUTS across the bored leading to a sense of over hedging
3. TTM Squeeze on $SPX daily looks primed to rip towards the upside
4. WeBull comments section is super bearish. lol
BTC trying to bounce back but a hurricane set to cool optimismINVESTMENT CONTEXT
While OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production in the coming months, in a gesture of reconciliation to the U.S., it still remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, will agree to further isolate economically Russia
BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, sees inflation to remain high for "years" due to the persisting effects of supply shocks
After raising interest rates on April 29, the Fed is now about to kick-off the plan to shrink its USD 8.9tn balance sheet
U.S. corporate profits fell the most in two years in Q1 2022; in the past year, earnings at 620 companies (of the 3,000 listed entities) fell short of interest payments — well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels
President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have seized a fifth of Ukraine, as the war passed the 100-day milestone
Russia missed a USD 1.9mln payment, inching closer to a default that would trigger billions of CDS insurance contracts
PROFZERO'S TAKE
In a rollercoaster trading day, equities shook off pre-market losses to close deep into green territory. Traders are mildly attempting to restore risk-on attitude, even in the wake of Microsoft (MSFT) lowering fourth-quarter guidance for both revenue and earnings, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. ProfZero maintains its cool aplomb: while welcoming the prospective second straight green weekly candle, the overarching narrative still hasn't found sufficient grounding for a rebound to be called - war in Ukraine still has no clearly defined endgame, China has but started softly lifting COVID restrictions and this week showed inflation in Europe has not peaked yet. Hot summer ahead? Cruel summer, rather
ProfZero is awaiting today's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to see whether the real economy is keeping the upbeat tone much needed to absorb inflation; earlier indications point to slowing hiring activity coupled with companies vying for talent, even at considerably heftier wages. As shared on Step99 podcast on June 2, ProfZero reminds that the inflation equation simply can't be escaped: it's going to be paid either by companies in case they'll opt to internalize higher costs (including salaries), or by households through higher retail prices (United Nations, U.N., food price index surged 73.9% in May 2022 as compared to 2020)
On June 2 Italy's natural gas distributor Snam announced it took over a 5-bcm strong regasification vessel from Golar LNG, as attempts to diversify energy supply in Europe gather pace. Other than the cost of energy itself, ProfZero is attentively looking at the freight market as a new source of possible bottlenecks: while pipelines from Russia allowed for seamless, low-cost primary transportation, the construction of brand-new seaborne supply chains will shift much market power into the hands of traders (Trafigura, Gunvor) and logistics middlemen. Speak of inflation - think of trading routes and supply-chain nodes, and you'll see who's behind it
BTC testing again the high USD 30k bracket - or simply draining liquidity from altcoins?
PROFONE's TAKE
Following yesterday’s thoughts on lithium, ProfOne’s sees the very same pressures on nickel. The price of the metal used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries gained more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, including a one-day market rout on March 8 that sent prices up 250% intraday, and had the London Metals Exchange shut trading to contain credit risk . Some stainless steel factories in Europe already had to cut production (Acerinox) on stable supply concerns. Countries are looking for ways to substitute supplies from Russia, which produces a fifth of the world’s purest-grade nickel. Thus again on de-globalization talks: around 80% of the world’s nickel processing is based in China and 60% of the world’s nickel mines are Chinese owned. ProfZero and ProfOne are starting to wonder what actually was on the agenda at Davos just 10 days ago...
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 2nd June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 2nd June 2022With RSI moving within a downtrend channel , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 246.88 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website. Disclaimer
DOW ANALISE
The state of affairs on the dow ts kamipanii were distributed relative to the indices on the principle of relative strength in this order
despite the fact that many sectors still do not show confident bullish growth, we already have some strong leaders, this company UNH is on the 2nd place, GS is on the 3rd place, HD is on the 4th place with you and me MSFT in 5th place we have the company AMGN
look at the relative strength indices that absolutely clearly show our leaders and outsiders
But who is the outsider at the moment , now the outsider of the company is the WBA and the relative strength index absolutely clearly shows the position of the shares to the market .
I always use this technical parameter together with the foundation parameters when analyzing the market
See you for new reviews !
Click like subscribe necessarily if the review came in! Then I will post more ideas .
My chat for learning and analysis Wyckoff Analytics search in chats and subscribe
Friends, I conduct training in an individual format and in a limited number of students, since a large number will interfere with my trading!
The training course includes :
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For details, write in a personal message
I can also introduce you to my own unique indicators , of my own design
Wykoff Zone ( You determine the activity and zones of smart money and also gives buy and sell signals )
The Demark indicator , which has no analogues on the platform - since most of the indicator are far from the essence of the Dymerka technique and are too simplified , which violates the basics of the principle
For investors, I can shift a 2-week lazy investor course where you can learn how to invest correctly and in which stocks + the tic-tac-toe method
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with your own developments taking into account the imbalance of supply and demand
The Wyckoff Line indicator was created based on the activity of professionals and the identification of liquidity zones to which the price is attracted.
Remember that the market is driven only by supply and demand. No technical indicators will tell you in advance that there has been an imbalance of supply or demand.
Listening to the news, you can lead yourself into a state of incorrect decision, so make decisions only on the activity zones of professionals. By understanding where the imbalance of supply and demand occurs, you can correctly build your work strategy.
The indicator has a smart algorithm that takes into account the activity zones on several timeframes that are above the working schedule.
The indicator also has a VSA system that determines the entry point in order to buy or sell a certain instrument. The entry point is determined by an imbalance of volume and price based on the principle of lack of demand, or lack of supply in liquid zones.
Take a look at "Figure 1", which clearly shows the test of the offer after which the price reached the next level of liquidity in WMT shares
The following example clearly shows a purchase after a downtrend, which, after passing through the liquidity zone, determined a clear signal to buy AAPL shares.
The essence of the indicator is that a high volume is always a liquidity zone to which the price will constantly strive. The indicator determines the liquidity zones of professionals that you set on higher timeframes using certain settings of the high volume bar. And together with the package of indicators, I provide a training video where I tell you how to use this indicator. And I also give some author's settings and recommendations for entering or exiting a position.
Now let's analyze the sell signal. Here is an example of one of the sell signals in which the indicator has clearly worked
The price reached the liquidity zone and he signaled three times that it was time to enter the position. Then, using completely different entry techniques, you could sell the KO stock or, if you were trending upwards and your techniques did not involve selling, you could simply exit your position in time.
The uniqueness of the indicator lies in the fact that it works on such a chart as tic-tac-toe. Having established liquidity zones, you can use the signal of this indicator to enter a position without any market noise. See the example below , where the entry into the MSFT promotion was carried out:
snapshot
To start using the indicator, you need to write to me in a personal message.
I will send you instructions for using the indicator and my recommendations (how to enter and exit the position) and the settings of the indicator.
During the entire use of the indicator, you can receive free support and advice from me by writing to me in private messages.
The ability to use the indicator in different languages: I will provide you with a video instruction for setting up and instructions for use in your native language.
Available languages for using the indicator: Russian, English, Chinese, Spanish, German.
The translation of the indicator settings into various languages is currently in progress.
The subscription price for the indicator is $20.
Buying an indicator for unlimited use is $300.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 31th May 2022With prices reversing off the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 267.88 where the horizontal pullback support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 30th May 2022With prices reversing off the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 267.88 where the horizontal pullback support is from our sell entry at 275.80 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 27th May 2022With prices below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 252.33 where the horizontal pullback support is from our sell entry at 271.89 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 27th May 2022With prices below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 252.33 where the horizontal pullback support is from our sell entry at 271.89 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Bearish breakdown for MSFT on the Fibonacci Bollinger BandThe monthly chart for Microsoft (MSFT) shows a breakdown below the upper band (red line) of the Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (FBB) indicator. While it is likely that MSFT will bounce for the time being, as inflation worries cool and tech stocks attempt a rally, the upper band will likely act as resistance. If the price rebounds it might be hard to sustain a breakout above $300. While I like MSFT as much as anyone else, the charts do not lie. The chart is showing that there is a long-term mean reversion occurring in the price of MSFT. The white line is the standard deviation basis for the monthly chart which reflects the downside potential. It's quite steep and the yearly oscillators are saying MSFT is primed to correct down to this level. All of this will unfold slowly (months to years) and fakeouts might trap some bulls. Is your MSFT position prepared for a worst-case scenario reversion to the mean? Trade wisely.
Not financial advice.
MSFT Potential for bearish momentum | 25th May 2022With prices below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our take profit at 247.95 where the horizontal swing low support is from our sell entry at 271.89 in line with the horizontal overlap resistance, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 290.14 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Microsoft - Long PositionThere's A Lot To Like About Microsoft's Upcoming US$0.62 Dividend. The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.62 per share, and in the last 12 months, the company paid a total of US$2.48 per share. Last year's total dividend payments show that Microsoft has a trailing yield of 0.9% on the current share price of $261.12. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.
Microsoft crashing? Microsoft
Short Term - We look to Sell at 274.00 (stop at 287.00)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Broken out of the Head and Shoulders formation to the downside. Previous support at 275.00 now becomes resistance. The trend of lower highs is located at 290.00. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 232.00 and 221.00
Resistance: 275.00 / 300.00 / 320.00
Support: 250.00 / 220.00 / 200.00
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