Has the stock market hit bottom? Ways to tackle the marketAfter the bottom formed in 23 Mar 2020, the US stock market has been trending upwards and it has since gone up by 30% from the low. The S&P 500 index ( CME_MINI:ES1! ) has gone up from the low at 2174 to more than 2800 as of today. There are even dozens of stocks rallied up by 50–100% during the same period.
So, has the stock market hit a bottom already? Looking at the past events such as in 2008, 2000, 1987, etc…the bear market started from the peak on 20 Feb 2020 to the bottom on 23 Mar 2020, which lasted only slightly more than a month, could the shortest bear market in the history.
The momentum and speed of the V-shaped rebound from the low till now is also unusual compared to the past events. Let's take look at 2008 and 1987 to see if we derive anything useful out from the history markets. Watch the video for a walk through of the past market history.
The volatility index (VIX) has started to unwind since 18 Mar 2020. The texture and character from 6 Apr 2020 is different compared to the period from 24 Feb - 3 Apr 2020, which suggests a less volatile and more "normal" market session, where risk-on or risk-off mode corresponds to relevant assets.
For traders and investors, it is important to keep an open mind to consider different possibilities and have the right money management strategy that you are comfortable with before participating the market.
Moneymanagement
👉🏻Money Management and Risk Management👈🏻🔊I would like to talk a little about money management and risk management. 🙌🏻That’s very important in trading.
Because trading isn’t only psychology. 🙅🏻♀️Your financial result depends on how competently you can manage your available capital💸.
🤜🏻Risk management - determining the maximum position volume in a transaction and the maximum stop value.
📌 Never enter the market with one position on all available capital.
The most common money management tactics:
⭐ trade in all capital
⭐ fixed lot
⭐ fixed percentage
⭐ optimal percentage
⭐ safe percentage
⭐ fixed proportion
👌🏻But no matter what money management tactics you choose, the essence will still the same - you should always consider your risks (the amount, that you will lose in transaction).
If you entered the market, you should always put stop loss, and keep in mind the price level after which you MUST exit. ( How correctly put stop loss – click here )
📌You’ll win only when the average value of your profits will be higher than the average value of your losses.
✔That’s the concept of positive mathematical expectation✔
❣Do not worry about your losses❣
THE MOST IMPORTANT RULE IN THE MARKET: 🔴 DO NOT STOP!
🤜🏻Only with your mistakes you will learn to be successful.💋💋💋
And of course, 👉🏻don’t forget about improvement of your skills.💪🏻
😉Read my training posts and everything will be cool :)
🌹Stay with me🌹
Your Rocket Bomb🚀💣
BTCUSD: possible long scnearioTechnically speaking, BTC has broken out from the triangle chart pattern on 4h timeframe...
...so entering from around 6600 with S/L around 5650 and T/P around 9200 (previous March high) price levels provides decent R:R opportunity.
Fundamentally, BTC was under pressure as other major markets and I am not sure we are not going to see lower levels in the coming days/weeks, but before that another bull rally is quite possible.
Keep in mind, that It's important to follow predefined risk and money management rules.
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Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Risk ManagementAs I promised, I publish the post about risk management.
There are different types of risk management, but I will share one of the best in my opinion.
When you trade futures you have no control over what is happening in the market, the only thing you can counteract is your stop orders and it depends on the volume of your position.
Nothing more depends on you. You can try to control the market with your thoughts, meditations, prayers, you can try anything, but it doesn't work and it's not surprising :)
What is under your control is stop loss. Don't overdo with your trades - it's when you trade too big contracts or when you trade too often.
Here too, there is the considerable cause that pushes you to trade too often: you look at small timeframes and afraid to miss a profitable trade.
Your problem is likely to be that you have a large number of open positions, so I will tell you how big your position should be.
One simple mathematical method will help you.
You have to determine the amount you are willing to risk.
Say your trading account is $100,000. And you need to decide what part of that amount you want to risk on one deal. Someone might say I'm a very risky guy, I'll risk 20%, the other - 15%, and the other only 2-5%.
The more percentage of your deposit you use in a deal, the better chance of zeroing out your deposit.
You have to determine your risk factor.
Usually, in an aggressive strategy, the risk is 10-12%.
You always need to understand what percentage of your money you are willing to risk. If you know exactly what your maximum possible loss and use the appropriate stops, then you can't lose more than you have specified. Of course, you need to take into account some possible slippage.
Let's assume that you set for yourself a maximum loss of $500 on a trade and don't risk more than 10% of your capital. Then the risk factor of my $100K trading account is $10K.
So you only risk $500 per trade and be able to make 20 failed trades straight.
After 3 unsuccessful trades, as a rule, I close the terminal and go out for a walk or drive a car, after an hour I return and make no more than 2 trades
Formula:
Your balance multiplied by risk percentage(e.g. 10%) and divided by your maximum possible loss (stop, e.g. $500) and as a result we get the number of contracts that you can trade.
100,000$ * 10% =10000$
10000$ / 500$ = 20 Number of traded contracts
You can see the formula on the chart
It's all about money management, once you earn more money you can open more positions, and when you get a loss the contract volume decreases too.
Fact of life, if you bet big you are guaranteed to lose big.
Money management must begin before you enter the trade. You should know how many trades you can trade and how much you can risk for each of them.
Never invest more than 20% of your capital if you are experienced, and 10% if you are new with trading.
Don't trade more than six markets at a time.
When you feel sure that you can't lose, it's time for the biggest risk of losing everything.
Fear allows you to be careful.
You must risk no more than 5% of your capital per trade, regardless of your experience.
Remember, the markets aren't sweet candy, they're brutal, and many people, without realizing it, lose their deposits.
The market is a puzzle without instructions.
I hope I a little bit helped to put your puzzle together.
Respect the market he is your teacher
With respect, EXCAVO.
USDJPY: possible scenario for joining bullsThe market calmed down, so Japanese yen is weakening.. i am waiting for better price to join bulls between 109.15-108.95 zone with 109.8 T/P (R:R 3.25).
Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and opening long position in USDJPY results positive swap.
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EURUSD: impatient long scenarioI think aggressive buys can start above 1.1095.. however for EUR bulls and for those who are playing with thought that we are going to see that level, entering the market between 1.104-1.1008 price zone with 1.112 T/P provides decent R:R (at least 2.5).
Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and opening long position in EURUSD results negative swap.
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Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
EOSUSD: optimistic scenario..what's next?Already with bulls since around 3 price level.. unreal. P/L around 40%, what should i do?
Should i close the position now? Don't think so..
1. Cryptocurrency market is breaking out, this month already had 5 posts regarding BTC, BCH, TRX, ETC and ETH..
2. EOS volume profile provides most traded area in the last 6, 3 and 1 month, so in my opinion selling around 3.8 price level is decent..
3. In this case i am risking 17% (with 23% profit in my pocket) with R:R ratio 3,8..
4. If we think from another point of view i have two options: 100% vs. 23%
5. Nothing more to add.. am i loosing this time..? No.)
Feel free to share your opinion/open positions via comment and follow me to stay updated.
Long term investments - 2019: BUY XAUEURLong term investments - 2019:
This is a first post on long term investment for 2019. Others will follow.
Every serious investor establishes a solid money management with a balanced risk factor.
Investing 100% of your savings in forex or crypto currency is like make a blind all in at poker.
So a key factor is to choose which asset allocation suites better for you and to found low risk investments on long term.
This investment and assets suits my needs.
My first choice is XAUEUR because:
1- Global Risk Index is higher then 2018 and 2017 (ref. europa.eu ):
GOLD UP because investors typically look at gold as a safe haven during times of political and economic uncertainty.
2- Why buy XAUEUR and not XAUUSD. Gold is always exchanged in USD so XAUEUR is a cross: why is better buy XAUEUR than XAUUSD?
US ecominic politics push for a strong US dollar: EURUSD DOWN. Actually (this week) EURUSD is retracing up to a resistance level near 1.1500, but then it will probably go back to 1.1200 so its a good time to buy XAUEUR because, when USD will be stronger again, XAUEUR will go up very quickly.
3- Price found a strong resistance (green line) in 2017 and 2018 (yellow circles): now this resistance line is broken and will work as support while next resistance level is far higher.
Capital Management - Pyramiding. Coin for pumping. Matic.Money Management Method - Pyramiding in action online on a pump coin. Matic / btc .
Big profits are minimal risk. Smart trading.
Stop Loss showed where to place and by what principle they move because all the zombies want to see them.
Stop Loss takes place when you are not in control of a position for a long time. But you must clearly understand where you should go when the price goes against you, and no retention of a losing position, in case, "what if the price comes back."
Always adhere to your strategy and plan, but at the same time, be flexible and have all the scenarios in advance. Be smarter for other market participants.
Matic / btc pyramiding in profit figures now:
1 entry point for $ 1000 + 177% $ 2700 (net $ 1700).
2 entry point for $ 1000 + 135% $ 2350 (net $ 1350).
3 entry point for $ 1000 + 90% $ 1900 (net $ 900).
4 entry point for $ 1000 + 35% $ 1350 (net $ 350).
The total profit at the moment from 4 entry points with a minimum risk of $ 4000 becomes $ 8350 (net $ 4300).
There is one thing, but the profit is much larger, as the trade was conducted in the accumulation channel with a price step of + 77%. Trading was carried out by 30% of the accumulated position, increasing it with complex%.
Trading in the channel will allow you to advance to a specific profit before the channel breakthrough. It will also help minimize its risks in case the uptrend support of the accumulation channel is broken down. As you would already be in profit from trading in the channel in 77% increments, at least cover Stop Loss loss. It is clear that the movement of 77% of the channel will not come out each time, like the entrance and exit when confirming the price reversal from support / resistance. But 30-40% can be obtained, but not always. This also needs to be understood.
Also no need to be afraid to buy at prices at a higher price. Sometimes buying at slightly higher prices is much safer than buying at the bottom, which may not be the bottom. The most important thing is the correct entry and exit point.
The entry point should be with a potential big profit and minimal risk.
What else does trading in the accumulation channel give you? You need to understand what could have been so (it is unlikely, but this should not be ruled out) that the price channel would have broken down and fixed under it. If you were “Waiting” like everyone else, it would mean a losing trade. And a loss in the amount of your Stop Loss according to your strategy. And if you have a big position, but not a lot of liquidity in a coin? As a rule, such coins are so, then there are situations when a breakthrough of support creates a panic-drain in the market, which goes to a large percentage of the price movement. Here, in this case, the extra earned profit up to the input amount helps.
Another addition in such coins in most cases is not possible to become short, therefore trading in two directions will not work. This must be understood in advance and taken into account in your trading strategy!
It is also important that someone thinks that he would just enter the breakout zone of the downtrend and take the same + 100% without these games and complexity. This is so if you have a small input, let's say $ 500-1,000 is not a problem, but if the amount is larger, this will cause difficulties to enter not noticeably and not provoke a premature price increase. You need to understand that at important pivot points you are not the only ones who want to enter the market, and in some coins the liquidity is low. And an entry instead of a step of + 2-3% can provoke a price increase of 10%. You can just trigger a panic buy.
Another option, for example, you bought 50% of the coins for the planned amount. Further you see that a further purchase will provoke an increase in the price by an unacceptable%. You can use your purchase to keep the price from rising and force other market participants to sell you and thereby gain the remaining 50% of the planned position. This works if you know how to work with a glass and a ribbon of sales and purchases, well hiding the actions made in advance. After all, you need to understand that not only hamsters are on the market, and there are traders who not only look at charts, and therefore are more informative in what is actually happening.
But all this only works in ordinary situations. At important points in the price reversal, your walls will be eaten up, you will give someone a gift allowing them to buy a large position without slipping the price. Just ask yourself a question, and you wouldn’t do it if someone gave you such a gift?
It is easier to work on TOP coins with this management method due to the greater liquidity and greater predictability of the price movement, but the profit there is many times smaller and more time-stretched.
Time is money. The liquidity of TOP coins allows you to work in large amounts, and there will always be enough liquidity for a short Stop Loss, which can not be said about pump coins. It is worth mentioning that you can work short on top coins if the price goes against you, therefore there is less risk due to greater plasticity for the trading instrument. But once again I’ll remind you the profit is much less, a long extended time interval and a small selection of trading tools.
I showed in more detail about this method of money management on TOP coins using the example of LTC / USD in these trading ideas:
EDUCATION Pyramiding How to earn 52000 with a risk of 5% from 10000 1part
EDUCATION Pyramiding money management. 2 part. Short LTC/USD
The trading idea for this coin for 13 11 2019 is before pumping and leaving the accumulation zone.
MATIC at the breakout zone of the downtrend Great growth potent
Pyramiding online on a coin for pumping. Matic. Smart trading. Money Management Method - Pyramiding in action online on a pump coin. Matic / btc.
Big profits are minimal risk.
Stop Loss showed where to place and by what principle they move because all the zombies want to see them.
Stop Loss takes place when you are not in control of a position for a long time. But you must clearly understand where you should go when the price goes against you, and no retention of a losing position, in case, "what if the price comes back."
Always adhere to your strategy and plan, but at the same time, be flexible and have all the scenarios in advance. Be smarter for other market participants.
Matic / btc pyramiding in profit figures now:
1 entry point for $ 1000 + 177% $ 2700 (net $ 1700).
2 entry point for $ 1000 + 135% $ 2350 (net $ 1350).
3 entry point for $ 1000 + 90% $ 1900 (net $ 900).
4 entry point for $ 1000 + 35% $ 1350 (net $ 350).
The total profit at the moment from 4 entry points with a minimum risk of $ 4000 becomes $ 8350 (net $ 4300).
There is one thing, but the profit is much larger, as the trade was conducted in the accumulation channel with a price step of + 77%. Trading was carried out by 30% of the accumulated position, increasing it with complex%.
Trading in the channel will allow you to advance to a specific profit before the channel breakthrough . It will also help minimize its risks in case the uptrend support of the accumulation channel is broken down . As you would already be in profit from trading in the channel in 77% increments, at least cover Stop Loss loss. It is clear that the movement of 77% of the channel will not come out each time, like the entrance and exit when confirming the price reversal from support / resistance. But 30-40% can be obtained, but not always. This also needs to be understood.
Also no need to be afraid to buy at prices at a higher price. Sometimes buying at slightly higher prices is much safer than buying at the bottom, which may not be the bottom. The most important thing is the correct entry and exit point.
The entry point should be with a potential big profit and minimal risk.
What else does trading in the accumulation channel give you? You need to understand what could have been so (it is unlikely, but this should not be ruled out) that the price channel would have broken down and fixed under it. If you were “Waiting” like everyone else, it would mean a losing trade. And a loss in the amount of your Stop Loss according to your strategy. And if you have a big position, but not a lot of liquidity in a coin? As a rule, such coins are so, then there are situations when a breakthrough of support creates a panic-drain in the market, which goes to a large percentage of the price movement. Here, in this case, the extra earned profit up to the input amount helps.
Another addition in such coins in most cases is not possible to become short, therefore trading in two directions will not work. This must be understood in advance and taken into account in your trading strategy!
It is also important that someone thinks that he would just enter the breakout zone of the downtrend and take the same + 100% without these games and complexity. This is so if you have a small input, let's say $ 500-1,000 is not a problem, but if the amount is larger, this will cause difficulties to enter not noticeably and not provoke a premature price increase. You need to understand that at important pivot points you are not the only ones who want to enter the market, and in some coins the liquidity is low. And an entry instead of a step of + 2-3% can provoke a price increase of 10%. You can just trigger a panic buy.
Another option, for example, you bought 50% of the coins for the planned amount. Further you see that a further purchase will provoke an increase in the price by an unacceptable%. You can use your purchase to keep the price from rising and force other market participants to sell you and thereby gain the remaining 50% of the planned position. This works if you know how to work with a glass and a ribbon of sales and purchases, well hiding the actions made in advance. After all, you need to understand that not only hamsters are on the market, and there are traders who not only look at charts, and therefore are more informative in what is actually happening.
But all this only works in ordinary situations. At important points in the price reversal, your walls will be eaten up, you will give someone a gift allowing them to buy a large position without slipping the price. Just ask yourself a question, and you wouldn’t do it if someone gave you such a gift?
It is easier to work on TOP coins with this management method due to the greater liquidity and greater predictability of the price movement, but the profit there is many times smaller and more time-stretched.
Time is money. The liquidity of TOP coins allows you to work in large amounts, and there will always be enough liquidity for a short Stop Loss, which can not be said about pump coins. It is worth mentioning that you can work short on top coins if the price goes against you, therefore there is less risk due to greater plasticity for the trading instrument. But once again I’ll remind you the profit is much less, a long extended time interval and a small selection of trading tools.
I showed in more detail about this method of money management on TOP coins using the example of LTC / USD in these trading ideas:
EDUCATION Pyramiding How to earn 52000 with a risk of 5% from 10000 1part
EDUCATION Pyramiding money management. 2 part. Short LTC/USD
The trading idea for this coin for 13 11 2019 is before pumping and leaving the accumulation zone.
MATIC at the breakout zone of the downtrend Great growth potent
EUR/JPY POTENTIAL LONG!!!TOP DOWN ANALYSIS
WEEKLY TIMEFRAME
It has been an exciting time! we have see quite descending channel showing downtrend for EUR/JPY.But recently we see break of structure in the weekly.showing momentum shifting to the upside and we shall see a good rally to around 123.000 which is our weekly extension level(taarget)
we also see a minor downward counter trend-line being broken. showing more upside potential
DAILY TIMEFRAME
so from the weekly perspective on the daily we see price perfectly respecting the 50% fib level (golden ratio) for retracement.nice retest of the broken resistance(lower structure) now becomes support and coincides with the fib level. all together giving confluence for potential bounce
H4 and H1 TIMEFRAME
We now see 2 "HIGHER LOWS" which when you extend our trend-line and perfectly respecting the third ''HIGHER LOW'' , Also to add more confirmation we see price respect the 61.8% fib level . addition of that we see price rejecting the trend-line plus
NOTE
Few weeks ago there was tremendous fakeout at price level=121.200 so put your eyes there!! in case it rejects
Target 1-120.900
Target 2-121.800
Happy trading and thanks for your support