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Momentumstrategy

Friday Optimism carries into Monday's trading? ♦️Hello Traders. Welcome back to another Analysis. Last Weekly candle closed down 20 Pips on EurUsd.. which was quite a different picture from the previous 5 weeks. Through the second half of April and throughout most of May we observed alot of optimism and observed a decent rise in EurUsd. This sentiment came to a halt last week as EurUsd pulled down during most of the week as the USD made some gains.. that was until Friday when most of the gains were given up to the Eur as price climbed it's way back up. The 50 pip move down on Thursday, with better than expected PMI numbers for the USD, was corrected in it's entirety on Friday. Now What? Price is in a tight range to begin the week between 1.08524 4hr zone and 1.0845 4hr zone. Well the monthly candle on EurUsd is still quite bullish. It is the End of the month and this last week could see some hectic volatility, so we must be cautious. Either the Monthly candle will keep pushing up or it will pull back and create a larger top wick. We do have a very nice clean traffic area on EurUsd if we can get below 1.0835. We can decrease underneath there for 20 pips at the least down to the 1.08147 Daily Level. Ranges to trade within look quite messy to me to the upside. My Bias to begin this week will be short and we have the weekly candle closure last week to back us up. This doesn't mean that a solid 1hr candle closure off 1.08413 couldn't suggest decent buy scalp opportunities. My bias to begin Monday's trading is a decrease to the Weekly support level 1.08358. Safe trading. Not Financial Advice but purely for General Informational and Educational purposes only.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Shipping Corporation Of India Showing Expected Up-Side MomentumCompany has reduced debt. Company has delivered good profit growth of 24.4% CAGR over last 5 years Strengths Long track record of operations along with diversified business segment SCIL is one of the largest shipping companies in India with an operational track record of around six decades. It benefits from the experienced management of qualified professionals and nominees of GOI. The long track record has helped them establishing relationships with major PSUs in India like IOCL, HPCL, BPCL, ONGC, etc. The company have diversified business segments which includes crude oil/product tankers, dry bulk, offshore services, and container operations, and has a presence in passenger vessels, chemicals, and gas transportation. SCIL currently has the largest fleet size of 59 vessels; a relatively younger fleet, with an average age of around 11-12 years which helps them in getting better charter rates and achieving higher operating efficiency. Vessels on behalf of third parties, primarily Public-Sector Units (PSUs)/Government Departments/Union Territories are also managed for service income. Currently, SCIL are managing 53 third party vessels. Acuité believes that SCIL will continue to benefit from its long operational track record and established relationship with the PSU's./b] Strategic importance to Government of India With more than six decades of operational track record, SCIL, remains strategically important to the Government of India. The company have been playing a pivotal role towards supplying vessels for the Indian Government key operations such as Mars Orbitter Mission of ISRO (Indian Space and Research Organisation) and other defence missions via agreement with DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organisation). Furthermore, SCIL have created strategic alliances with other governments such as Maldives, Andaman & Nicobar Islands for providing maritime services among islands. They have also been serving projects of national importance by partnering with ONGC and Geological Survey of India (GSI) for offshore services. Apart from that, the company deployed its container vessel on direct "India - Middle East Shipping Service" which connects East & West Coast of India with Middle East ports of Jebel Ali and Hamad and will also cater to other ports in Persian Gulf. Stable business operations The business operations of the company remained stable over the years marked by healthy growth in revenue from operations by -25% CAGR over FY21-23 period. The consolidated company achieved revenues of Rs.5794.01 Cr. in FY23 compared against Rs.4988.08 Cr. in FY22 and Rs.3698.09 in FY21. The improvement in revenue is attributable to significant improvement in liner freight indices and bulk segment due to significant improvement in charter rates. A surge in the tanker charter hire rates helped the Tanker Segment to post significant profits. The dry bulk segment is still recovering from historically bad period and loss of key cargoes such as iron ore exports from India, resulting in long non-profitable ballast legs thereby putting pressure on earnings. Although, in later parts of 2020, dry bulk trade recovered remarkably well on account of stimulus packages given by various governments and with China, the main driver of dry bulk demand, recovering quickly from COVID-19 crisis. Simultaneous occurrence of multiple factors conducive for the dry bulk shipping business, viz., spike in dry bulk materials demand, strong trade in grain, coal and iron ore segments, low active fleet growth maintaining tonnage balance etc. gave a good push to the dry bulk rates. Also. strong trade growth and tapering dry bulk carrier deliveries bode well for the near future. Healthy Financial Risk Profile The financial risk profile of the company remained healthy marked by strong net worth, gearing ratio and comfortable debt protection metrics. The tangible Net worth of the company stood at Rs.6902 crore in FY2023 as against Rs.5974 crore in FY2022. The debt/equity of the company improved and stood comfortably at 0.37x and 0.53x as on 31 March 2023 and 31 March 2022 respectively. The TOL/TNW of the company improved and stood low at 0.66x as on 31 March 2023 compared against 0.82 times as on 31 March 2022 respectively. The debt protection matrices of the compar mained comfortable marked by interest- coverage-ratio of 9.45x and Debt-service e ratio of 2.30x for FY2023. Acuité believes that financial risk profile of SCIL may remain strong owing to no major capex plans and stable profit accretions.
NSE:SCILong
by iism-ExpertTrading
Strategic Approach to Short-Term Trading in Bosch Ltd"Bosch Ltd is showing strong bullish signals across multiple timeframes. The daily, weekly, and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) are all above 65, indicating strong upward momentum. The Supertrend indicator is positive, suggesting a favorable trend for buyers. The stock has also experienced a breakout from its previous high. Furthermore, the closing price is consistently above the 21, 55, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Lastly, the Relative Strength (RS) is above 0, further supporting the positive outlook. These factors combined present a compelling case for short-term trading opportunities in Bosch Ltd."
NSE:BOSCHLTD
by PnKJ_93
NZDCAD | Short H4 | Market Exec | Pure Retracement PlayTechnical Confluences for Trade: - Stochastics are in Overbought Conditions on H4 and H1 time-frame. D1 is also entering Overbought Conditions. - Price action is close to last month's Resistance Trendline - Price action is in a consolidation zone - Targeting the 61.8% Fibo retracement Suggested Trade: Entry @ Area of Interest 0.8210 - 0.8230 SL @ 0.8244 TP 1 @ 0.8184 (Close Half-Position & move SL to Entry level once TP1 is achieved) TP 2 @ 0.8151 Risk-to-Reward @ Approx. 2.04 (Depending on Entry Level) ________________________________ Boosts 🚀, Follows ✌️, Shares 🙌 & Comments ✍️ are much appreciated! If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies. If you want something analyzed, do drop me a DM. :D ________________________________ Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. Any websites / brokers / applications suggested here are also provided as informational purpose only. ________________________________
Short
by weekendanalyst
Future AUDUSD selloff very possible Fundamentals : The RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept interest rates at a 12-year high of 4.35%. The COT (Commitment of Traders) Non-Commercial Report for AUDUSD showed a larger number of participants holding shorts over longs but we’ve had about 15k shorts close their positions since the last COT report so there is that going against the bearish sentiment. Net position overall is still negative but it had a positive change of 13k or 13.51% which also goes against the bearish sentiment. % OI for longs is 18.40% while the % OI for shorts is 55.5%, Open Interest being 224.5k which is -14k lower then last weeks reports Technicals : We get the 3-EMA crossing-over the 10-EMA to the downside while price action is possibly staying underneath both EMAs. Stochastic is facing down while crossing the 50% mark and the Momentum is negative. Stop loss above the top trend line, Targeting prominent recent Lows.
Short
by Iateyourcroissant
#GOACARBON Company has reduced debt. Company has a good return on equity (ROE) track record: 3 Years ROE 35.2% Extensive experience, reputed clientele and established t rack record of operations in the CPC segment GCL is a part of Dempo Group, which was established in 1941. The group has diversified operations with a presence in Iron Ore mining and exports, Construction, Publishing, Ship Building, Travel and Trade, among others. GCL has more than five decades of track record in the production of CPC and hence has an established market position amongst the leading producers of CPC in India. The chairman of the company, Mr. Shrinivas Dempo has an extensive experience of over three decades in the industry. GCL caters to reputed companies among the Aluminium Industry, Graphite Industry and Steel Industry which includes Hindalco Industries Limited (HIL), Vedanta Aluminium Limited (VAL), The Kerala Minerals and Metals Limited (KMML), Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) to name a few. GCL has also healthy relations developed over a decade with the various global raw material suppliers such as Kuwait Petroleum Corporation, Oxbow Carbon & Minerals LLC, Mitsubishi Corporation Limited among others. Acuité believes that the established position in the industry and healthy relations with both customers as well as suppliers will help the company to maintain a stable business profile in the CPC segment. Improvement in business risk profile The business risk profile of the company witnessed improvement reflected by growth in revenues during FY2023 and 9MFY2024. The revenue from operations of GCL improved to Rs. 1364.36 Cr. in FY2023 against Rs. 766.12 Cr. in FY2022. Further, the revenues during 9MFY2024 stood in similar range at Rs. 606.42 Cr. The surge in the demand of aluminium while tightening of its supply marked by geo-political issues and consequent sanctions on Russia, which contributes almost 6 percent of the global aluminium supply, has resulted in an implicit effect on the pricing of CPC. The average selling price of the CPC during FY20-21 stood at around Rs. 22,000 per metric tonne which grew to Rs. 42,000 per metric tonne in FY21-22, while as on 9MFY23 the average selling price stood as high as Rs.77,000 per metric tonne. Acuité believes that GCL’s operating performance is susceptible to the changes in pricing of CPC and the same will remain critical for its future growth.
NSE:GOACARBON
by iism-ExpertTrading
EurUsd - How long will Risk-On sentiment last?Hello traders.. For EurUsd we observed a very nice swing to the upside over the previous day of trading as decent Eur data beat Usd data for services and manufacturing PMI. We saw initial upside with the Eur data shortly after London open and this was followed by a pullback. Only until more data was released during NY session , we were to see another bounce to the upside. Risk on sentiment was the name of the game today as the Dollar index sold off with the Bad USD data. This was also coupled with a descending Vix and rising U.S. stock indexes leading up to and with the Bad USD data. The monthly candle is currently pulling back up. The weekly candle has shot past the previous weekly high by about 15-20ish pips. The Daily candle closed strongly bullish today, suggesting some more upside moving into this next day of trading.. we have no news in the upcoming session. Asian has pushed up slightly to begin the day. Key prices to watch in the upcoming session 1.0701, 1.06936
by ShrewdCatfx
Nasdaq and Indices Lower on Middle East conflictNasdaq keeps pushing bearish as the stock indices struggle to deal with rising tensions and conflict in the middle east. The Monthly/Weekly timeframes .. everything is bearish. As we head into the close of the week I'm anticpating a further push bearish. The previous 4hr candle closed a shooting star candle.. this coincided with the 1hr timeframe rejecting a 1hr resistance zone,17,397. The market dropped and really disliked the Israel strikes from 12 hours ago. We have bearish momentum , anticpating a retest of daily support level 17,164. The weekly candle will likely keep pulling down to finish off the candle. Vix volatility index gapped way up overnight due to war conflicts and this signals more puts being bought and therefore more anticpated downside on the Indices.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Short
by ShrewdCatfx
U.S. Stock Indices, signs of Relief? 🏛️hello traders.. the U.S. stock indices have been getting pounded by bearish sentiment related to new war conflicts. Also, they were due for a pullback as things have been quite bullish the last few months. Price currently is testing a Daily support level on Nasdaq at 17,500. The NYSE 1hr candle just closed strong bearish below our Daily support level and we are currently retesting structure to continue bearish. A 4hr zone at 17,410 may be the last hope for bears before another selloff takes place to retrace another 2 percent to 17,164 Daily support level. We currently have bearish momentum in the Risk-On stock markets. We had retail sales come out much better than expected earlier this week but this didnt do much at all for price. Strong jobs data and increasing inflation in recent months have increased price a decent amount and this looks like a healthy pullback for profit taking and liquidations.
BLACKBULL:NAS100Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Crude Oil retraces on Conflicts🛢️Hello traders.. WTI Crude Oil has been dropping since the beginning of the conflict this past weekend between Iran and Israel. We are trending bullish so far on the year and are up 14%. Price is pulling back this week and we recently touched into a Daily support level 81.25 where we observed a bounce. I dont believe sellers are completely out on this bearish retracement and am looking for a retest of the Daily level 81.25. We have a 4hr resistance zone at 82.30 that may aid in facilitating a move back down.
TVC:USOILShort
by ShrewdCatfx
GBPJPY Higher after JPY fundamentals ChangeWe may observe that GBPJPY has hit it's head several times at 192.803 and has failed to break above this level. All week we've been ranging after moving slightly up early in the week. Price wants to go up and since the Bank of Japan recently increased interest rates for the first time in many years, we may very well anticipate a continued trend on GBPJPY to the upside. This is a rare occasion when buying around the highs has less risk due to the fundamentals. When a market touches a zone and returns this many times, the zone will eventually breakdown. 193.313 Daily zone and monthly zone 193.639 are our bullish targets for GBPJPY. At our monthly zone we may anticipate alot of profit taking and a steep pullback to clear liquidity. Price appears to be forming support at the Daily Level now(192.355) on this thursday NY session, April 18th 24'
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Are Eur/Usd Bulls done yet? 📰Hello traders.. we have another analysis here outlining potential scenarios for intra-day trading EurUsd. Look for 1hr candle closures outside 1.06855 1hr resistance zone and 1.0669 1hr support zone. Look at those ranges we could potentially trade .. up to 1.0712 or if we go down then 1.06345. We have no major news releases left this week except for unemployment claims in the next session.. forecasted to increase slightly and I don't expect any major volatility from this... if anything maybe boost in the direction of the preceding trend leading up to it. I'm looking at higher prices for the next sessions as 1 I made a long analysis on Sunday and we are up since then.. 2 the low of the week coincided with the fed speech on tuesday's NY session.. 3 the daily candle just closed strongly bullish for EurUsd with a wick to fill & bullish momentum. 4 Yes stock markets are getting beat up, signaliing risk-off USD strength sentiment but bond yields on the 10 year were up like 3.5% on the week and are now up 1% as we've had some very strong bullish momentum the past few weeks.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
S&P Bearish after Retail Sales.. Israel/Iran conflict abroad? 🤨The S&P futures is quite weak after strong USD retail sales data. This move opposes a rational reaction to data that came out better than forecasted by a good margin. The market is pulling back and continuing the bearish momentum from the previous week. This may have to do with the conflict between Israel and Iran, this retracement back down. Oil is pushing up and Gold is pushing up late in the NY session here on Monday April 15th.. Money is being shifted to those Risk-On assets rather than stock indices such as S&P
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd : Usd Fundamental dominance ⚗️Hello traders.. so yes indeed we did get a very nice push down on EurUsd with CPI data. I put out Short Analyses on Sunday/Monday around Pre-London outlining the fear and market uncertainty that increasing inflation brings into the markets. The inflation reading CPI was expected to rise from 3,2% to 3.4% YoY. The reading came out as 3.5% YoY and we dropped hard on EurUsd. The price action preceding CPI data was suspicious as we had a SHooting star candle last Thursday followed by a hanging man candle on Friday.. caused by strong jobs data. The Monday daily candle this week closed bullish yes, but this candle was less than half the size of the large bullish engulfing candle last wednesday. It was also on a Monday & we still had the rest of the week's price action to observe. On Tuesday , Yesterday, we printed another shooting star candle as we pinned past the previous week's high price. See what I'm seeing here? Then we couple this withg strong USD jobs data last friday and we have many confluences for a decrease in the market. The best part is that you dont even need to hold tthrough news. You can wait until the data comes out and then trade with the momentum on the 1m timeframe. For the new day of trading, I can observe EurUsd continuing to decrease although we are at a Daily support level 1.07422. This is a rare occasion when I completely okay selling at support lol. This is because of fundamentals and a nice pullback for liquidity early in the month for EurUsd. The first week of April was liquidity. Target for end of week on EurUsd is 1.06882
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd.. End of week Momentum 🕴️Hello traders.. we have the last 2 trading sessions of the week here. The monthly/weekly/Daily are all bearish. 4Hr market structure is bearish and we are creating a new 4hr resistance zone at 1.07261 after this 4hr candles closes in 30 minutes. Today we observed a continuation on EurUsd which was forecasted inadvance on this channel. It was relatively straight forward given the current fundamental backdrop in the markets with strong jobs datta last week and 2 consecutive inflation increases for March and April CPI releases. The large bearish engulfing candle also gave it away.. I really dont want to know who was trading against the trend this week. Anyways we currently have momentum in the market and I believe we will retest the previous daily low at 1.06992 4hr support zone. We outlined this zone in the analysis yesterday as well. We rejected this zone at London close during the New york session today. We reached my short target for the week already.. 1.06992. We have a Daily support level at 1.07086. It's possible we may ignore all level's and drop to the next key level , weekly level 1.06834. We have consumer sentiment for USD forecasted to decrease slightly across the previous data point. The news may act as an catayst to continue dropping or Pullback to end the week. Important levels to watch 1.07261 and 1.07086. Watching how candles interact with these levels.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
USD bounces back following Strong Jobs Data 🖤The EurUsd Monthly candle is bullish to begin the 2nd quarter and after the first week of Aprils trading. The weekly candle closed bullish as price rejected our key weekly support level 1.0771. The candle left a 40 pips top wick for this weeks candle to go fill in bullish momentum. However, we observed a shooting star candle on Thursday that closed below our 1.0837 Daily resistance level. The friday daily candle dropped and bounced back up after NFP news. Yet, price still managed to close bearish and below our daily resistance level 1.0837. A Shooting star candle followed by a Hanging man candle.. It's early in the month and I still think we can observe some USD strength. How long it will last im not sure.. It's early in the week and a downtrend on the 1hr timeframe back to Friday's low seems possible. We must observe how price acts around the 1.0844 4hr resistance level. Other Key level's include 1.0825 1hr zone, and 1.0805 4hr zone which is our short term target to begin the week here. We've observed strong jobs data 2 months in a row. March and April releases have both been strong.. this coupled with the fact that CPI is snaticpated to increase from 3.2% to 3.4% this week suggests a healthy consumer spending economy, strong USD. It also suggests more uncertainty regarding inflation because March increased YoY for CPI.. and now April? The fed is going in the opposite direction for it's goals.. Maybe institutions.. it's time to buy the USD safe haven asset of the world? Weekly timeframe Still ranging on the monthly timeframe but it appears the monthly candle is pulling up or is this a liquidity move preceding more USD strength.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
4
Has the Market Priced In CPI Data? 🔕As we enter the 5th trading session of the week, The monthly candle and weekly candles are still bullish. The Daily candle closed bullish to begin the week(Monday) and it appears that the market has possibly priced in the not-so-great data forecasted to be released on Wednesday. The Euro went up on a Monday with inflation forecasted to increase for the USD on Wednesday. Maybe we will continue to ascend on EurUsd as the market shrugs off increasing inflation for the USD. This doesnt make sense to me because the USD is a safe haven in times of uncertainty. I'm anticpating that this early push to higher prices early in the week is a discount as the price for EU will be alot lower to end the week(like 1.0805 4hr level or 1.0771 weekly level) And this will be a 2nd consecutive month where inflation increases. The last time we had 2 consecutive months where (USD) CPI increased was September 23' and July 22'. More details below.. make sure to check out the snapshots! July 22' CPI(for June22') increase for 2 months in a row.. price dropped 100 pips the next day , pulled bac 315 pips the next 19 daily candles before dropping 750 pips across the next 34 daily candles Sept 23' CPI release (For Aug23') increase for 2 months in a row.. EU went down 280 pips in the next 13 daily candles
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd treads in a Gray area preceding April NFP 📌What a Trading day.. a Continuation followed by a sharp selloff. The continuation was called out here at ShrewdCatFx and the Selloff was punishment to late buyers I suppose. NFP data tomorrow will likely take us for a ride as It typically does.. Direction? I'm leaning for more upside despite our weak Daily candle closure today. Why? I like the optimistic remarks by the fed this week and the market ate it up. Yes we've pulled back dramatically leading into NFP data tomorrow but the weekly candle is still bullish and US30 stock index is at a nice support level(after pulling back all week), suggesting a Risk-on Friday. 4hr timeframe, wild week with dramatic selloff to begin followed by massive move up with USD data and speech Daily timeframe, Buyers rejected as the Thursday Daily candle closes a shooting star candle that coincides with a Daily resistance level 1.08372! The Weekly timeframe, price is respecting 1.07652 so far this week but we still have NFP which could cause a lot of volatility Monthly Range!
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EurUsd Pullback treads between Key Level's 1.0765/1.0790 🎚️Hello Traders.. In our previous analysis (24hrs ago) we called out Longs/Buys from 1.0732 and price is currently 1.0770, an increase of 40 pips. The Monthly candle pulled down to begin the month and as we enter Wednesday the candle is returning to Break even after dropping 60 pips. The market now treads above the weekly level 1.0765 and will this sustain until the end of the week.. it's possible although I dont think we've seen the end of USD momentum this week but maybe we have. Maybe the market will pull up it's pants and the Eur will make a difference lol. The Tuesday daily candle closed bullish back above the weekly level 1.0765, this level we must watch closely... The wednesday daily candle already broke the high of the previous candle .. hmm... If we do head bullish I see us tapping into the daily resistance created on Monday at 1.079. Otherwise we created a daily support level today with the Bullish candle close at 1.0742. We do have a good amount of data in the upcoming session which could cause some volatility. I can see buyers pushing price to the Daily level 1.079 where we may see Sellers step back in. Today's session could be tricky and flexibility will be key.
by ShrewdCatfx
Monthly Candle Closure Volatility ♠️Some banks and Institutions require their execution desks to close positions as the month comes to and end. This sometimes causes wild and irrational choppiness in the price action. Caution as the market closes out the month of March 24'. PCE data is forecasted to decrease which could spark some optimism and a rebound to the upside to end the month. If not, we may very well see a continuation of momentum with safe-haven buying of the USD aka EurUsd heads to the sea floor. Next target for shorts is weekly level 1.07663 and 1.07451 4hr zone. 0:0 Monthly timeframe 3:42 Weekly timeframe 5:30 Daily timeframe 7:03 4hr timeframe 9:30 1hr timeframe and upcoming news
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Retest 1.083 prior to more Downside -> EurUsd 🐺Based off fundamentals and apparent momentum in the market, my bias remains as bearish for the EurUsd currency pair. The Monthly candle has reteaced nearly all of it's gains as we come to a close in 2 days. The the top wick signals rejection from the high of the Monthly resistance to me (1.103). This coincided with Jobs data and Increasing inflation data and the last few weeks we have observed bearish momentum in the market. Yes this week so far we have recieved some buying pressure off the 1.0805 daily support level. Although with GDP data forecasted to remain unchanged tomorrow and Housing data expected to grow for the U.S. economy, I can observe more potnetial USD strength to end the March Monthly candle. First target is 1.0805 retest of the Daily support level, then 1.08 4hr zone and ultimately 1.0768 weekly level
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
4