MODERNA has most likely bottomedModerna Inc (MRNA), a much discussed stock over the previous years, is having a +8% day, a very encouraging since following the rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) three days ago. What's more interesting is that we have seen almost the same pattern in the stock's all time lows in 2019.
As you see, the price since September has been on Lower Lows while the 1D RSI has been on Higher Lows, indicating a Bullish Divergence that is often seen on market bottoms before the price reverses. The very same Bullish Divergence was spotted from June 25 2019 until August 07 2019. It was also a remarkable 1D candle of +20% back then that signaled the sentiment shift. The price confirmed those bias when it broke above the 1D MA50. The break of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) a few days later opened the way for an incredible two year rise that was of course dominated by the COVID fundamentals mostly.
It is worth noting that at the moment the 1D MA200 is too close to the 1D MA50 as opposed to 2019, so best to have our mark on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) which has rejected both of 2022 uptrends in March 21 and August 04. It is exactly now where the 200.00 Resistance is (formed by the August 04 High). Also notice that the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) has made its appearance in October for the first time in history and provided the necessary Support for the early October push.
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Moderna
Moderna, what goes up must come down...We all know this stock saw a large rise due to world conditions over the last few years, but since that has mostly come to and end, it's time to let MRNA rest for a while. This looks like a massive Head & Shoulders if I've ever seen one, this could bring price as far down as $30, but more than likely will find some major support at below $90 in the medium term. Will be carefully watching this one.
Moderna at key resistance? Moderna
Short Term
We look to Sell at 183.71 (stop at 203.39)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Previous resistance located at 190.00. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 121.74 and 94.19
Resistance: 190.00 / 220.00 / 495.00
Support: 156.00 / 120.00 / 100.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Shooting Star on Moderna? Moderna
Short Term
We look to Sell at 146.42 (stop at 154.23)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Price action has posted a bearish Shooting Star and is negative for short-term sentiment. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 122.21 and 94.19
Resistance: 150.00 / 171.76 / 187.50
Support: 120.00 / 100.00 / 66.41
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Moderna Progress on all VaccinesThe statistics are between $184 - $219(1 Year)
Its Financial Health is very strong.
Why not wait till Moderna makes greater progress and finds It
Resistance Again at $450
Moderna has many projects running.
So if we see progress in some of the projects in the next Years,
we will see a great price rise.
I believe it won't be difficult to reach its older resistance again, around $450.
Disclaimer:
Just my Idea! Find your Trading Ideas and learn and study more!
Feeling sick? (Moderna)Moderna
Short Term
We look to Sell at 133.52 (stop at 141.88)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Prices expected to stall near trend line resistance. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
Our profit targets will be 105.41 and 94.19
Resistance: 150.00 / 171.76 / 187.50
Support: 116.00 / 100.00 / 66.41
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Moderna in trouble? Moderna
Short Term - We look to Sell at 149.49 (stop at 160.31)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Closed below the 20-day EMA. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 123.84 and 103.50
Resistance: 150.00 / 171.76 / 187.50
Support: 125.00 / 120.00 / 104.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Pharma firm SIGA cashes in on monkeypox scareNew York-based pharmaceutical firm SIGA Technologies (NASDAQ:SIGA) is among the companies to benefit from the growing threat of monkeypox, recently pushing its shares to an almost decade-high after the company obtained approval in Europe to use its TPOXX antiviral drug for the treatment of monkeypox.
Smallpox jabs vs monkeypox
On May 19, the World Health Organization declared that vaccines used against smallpox — before the virus was eradicated in 1980 — can be used to fight monkeypox. SIGA already won approval from the US Food and Drug Administration in 2018 to distribute its oral TPOXX capsules as a treatment against smallpox even when there were no reports of confirmed or possible cases of smallpox at the time.
US advances in vaccine orders
Most recently, SIGA on Thursday secured another approval from the FDA for the intravenous (IV) formulation of TPOXX for patients who are unable to swallow the drug’s oral variant. SIGA said the IV formulation of TPOXX has already been cited in the recent US president’s budget request to treat a patient with monkeypox in the US.
The company's shares surged 43% on Friday before paring gains to close 13% lower on the Nasdaq on Monday, and another 15.5% on Tuesday. SIGA stock remains up 26.5% over the past 5 days of trading.
SIGA also stands to benefit from TPOXX’s use in Canada and Europe, where cases of moneypox were detected in recent weeks. Europe has already approved the use of TPOXX against monkeypox, cowpox, and complications from immunization with vaccinia, the company said.
Growing monkeypox threat
Monkeypox, first discovered in 1958, is a viral illness that first occurred in colonies of monkeys. The first human case of the virus was recorded in the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1970, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The virus can cause symptoms like fever, body aches, swollen lymph nodes and bumpy rashes.
Cases of monkeypox have so far been reported in at least 17 countries including the US, Canada, the UK, Spain, Portugal, France, Italy and Australia.
Big pharma steps in
SIGA and another vaccine maker in Denmark, Bavarian Nordic (CPH:BAVA), have kept samples of smallpox virus for research purposes in case of biological warfare. The emergence of monkeypox this year prompted both companies to start mass producing vaccines against smallpox to offer protection against monkeypox.
CDC officials on Monday said the US is in the process of releasing Bavarian Nordic’s Jynneos vaccine doses to fight against monkeypox. The US has stockpiled more than 1,000 doses of the vaccine and CDC officials expect to boost their purchases in the coming weeks.
Bavarian Nordic’s shares on the Nasdaq Copenhagen surged to a four-month high on Monday.
The Danish company on May 18 said the US government has already placed a $119 million order for the production of freeze-dried Jynneos vaccines, although deliveries are not expected until 2023 and 2024.
Meanwhile, Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA), which succeeded in developing vaccines against COVID-19, also started testing vaccines against monkeypox. The company on Tuesday said it is investigating potential vaccines against monkeypox in pre-clinical trials.
No urgent need for mass vaccinations
Although vaccines against monkeypox are already within reach just weeks into reports of an outbreak emerged, some experts and WHO officials say inoculations against monkeypox will not likely involve a mass campaign as the virus, unlike COVID-19, is not as contagious. Vaccinations would likely be focused only on people with close contact with infected individuals.
"If a case is reported in the country, a public health SWAT team goes out, finds out who the close contacts are of that first case, and vaccinates just those close contacts, and not the entire city or suburb,” Dr. David Freedman, professor emeritus of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama, was quoted by Time magazine as saying.
Will the Moderna share price ever recover?The Moderna share price has fallen from its pandemic peak amid uncertain demand for its lifesaving mRNA vaccine. But will it ever recover?
Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares traded for more than $450 last summer. But today the stock is trading at $136 – less than a third of its pandemic peak. The vaccine-maker stock gained massively during the pandemic. Its mRNA vaccine was favoured by governments around the world, including in the US and EU. In fact, its shot was famously touted as the Rolls-Royce of vaccines, although it was also linked with very rare cases of myocarditis that perhaps caused it to be less popular than the Pfizer vaccine by those being vaccinated. Prior to the pandemic, the Massachusetts-based firm was trading for less than $15 a share.
But what comes next for Moderna? Will it return to its 2021-highs, or will it continue to fall?
Why is the share price falling?
Moderna only has one commercial product and that’s its lifesaving Covid-19 vaccine, Spikevax. The shot received emergency approval around the world in 2020 and 2021 and is considered one of the most effective vaccines in the fight against Covid-19. Like other vaccines, Spikevax was developed and approved on an accelerated schedule. While it is normal for vaccine development to take a decade from discovery to rollout, Spikevax was created and rolled out within a year.
These exceptional circumstances propelled Moderna from a company that most people had never heard of, to a household name worldwide. Its shot was one of the first four vaccines approved for use against the virus in the West. The other vaccines included the AstraZeneca shot that was sold for cost-price by the Anglo-Swedish drugs company. However, the Moderna vaccine was sold, and continues to be, for around $20-25 a dose.
In turn, this saw Moderna generate $18,4bn in 2021. The figure represents an enormous 2191% jump from 2020. In 2020, the vaccine maker saw revenues of $803m. This figure also represented a huge 1234% increase from the $60m generated in 2019. As such, we can see how the pandemic generated revenue growth in a way which is not likely to be repeated.
Moderna has strong forecasts for 2022, but the future is uncertain after that. The firm, which currently has a market cap of $55bn, says it is on track to deliver $21bn in revenue in 2022. However, forecasts from then on are mixed. While the general forecast is steeply downwards. Some analysts have predicted that Moderna’s vaccine sales will dip as low as $2bn in 2024.
So, investors are clearly concerned about revenue generation in years to come. And I think as we look around us, we can see that demand for Covid-19 vaccines is dropping. Not only among governments, but among normal citizens. Only elderly members of the British public are being offered fourth jabs right now and I’m not sure whether younger members of the population will be given free Covid-19 shots again.
What could send the share price upwards?
The less virulent nature of the Omicron strain has made vaccinations less vital. While Omicron is considerably more contagious than previous variants, it causes less severe symptoms. One thing that would send the Moderna share price soaring is the emergence of a more virulent strain, which would incentivise more vaccination. However, viruses don’t tend to evolve to become more deadly. The most successful viruses are the ones that spread, not the ones that kill their hosts.
The second thing that could reverse the negative trend in the share price is the development or launch of new products with commercial potential. mRNA technology has been lauded as having the capacity to be more easily manufactured to take on diseases such as cancer. However, the majority of Moderna’s vaccines in development concern Covid-19 and other respiratory viruses.
Moderna has two combined respiratory-virus vaccine candidates in its pipeline. One targets influenza and Covid-19. The other targets flu, Covid-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Both candidates are in preclinical development. This sort of product could enhance the firm’s revenue generation capability, but it seems unlikely that such vaccines would be rolled out to whole populations. Instead, it would be targeted at the most vulnerable, probably just in time for the winter months. However, competitor Novavax is slightly closer to commercialising a similar product.
Moderna also has a Cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine in phase three trials. CMV is related to the herpes virus that causes cold sores and chickenpox. However, once you have the virus, you retain it for life. It can cause serious health problems in some babies who get the virus before birth and in adults with weakened immune systems.
The biotech firm is also developing a Zika vaccine and a personalized cancer vaccine (PCV). The PCV is in phase two trials and such vaccines, if successful, are likely to be very lucrative. The disease is one of the biggest killers worldwide and treatment can be very costly. Moderna is also working on a HIV vaccine. However, many of Moderna’s vaccines are still some distance from commercialisation. Reaching commercialisation can take a decade or longer.
Valuation
Because of the uncertain future, Moderna looks very cheap by some metrics. The biotech firm has a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just four, based on its profits over the past 12 months. It also has a price-to-sales ratio of just 2.4. Moderna’s valuation is quite unique in many respects. Growth stocks tend to be expensive as they’re partially valued on future revenue potential rather than their current earnings. However, Moderna growth appears to have been short-lived, and it seems unlikely that such revenue growth can be repeated in the future.
With peak demand for Covid-19 vaccines likely past, an increase in the share price, at least in the short term, seems unlikely. However, I don’t see the stock’s share price falling much further. One forecast suggests that Moderna’s profits could fall to $2bn in 2024. If the market cap remained the same as it is today, $2bn in profit would give Moderna a P/E ratio of around 27 in 2024. That’s still expensive by some metrics, but biotech firms tend to trade at a premium given their valuation reflects future earnings potential. And Moderna clearly has some potential beyond its current Covid jab.
Moderna | MRNA | Short, Falling WedgeModerna ( NASDAQ:MRNA ) is in a falling wedge with no signs of escaping (yet). While it may have a small pop if there is good company news, the COVID-19 buying spree may be truly over. The COVID-19 pandemic will soon be an endemic and the market may shift fully away from "COVID-19 tickers". Insiders continue to dump shares. Since the start of 2022, insiders have sold $57 million worth of shares. $10 million of this total in the past 13 days (source: OpenInsider).
I anticipate Moderna to be below $100 in the coming months if it doesn't break the falling wedge's resistance.
PFE Pfizer shortPfizer will re-enter the channel below current support. Looking for a re-test and breakdown of $45 before mid March. Fraud, vaccine ineffectiveness, and blatant disregard for human health are just a few of the concerns here. For those less inclined to believe in science, COVID is over and these vaccine companies cannot rely on any future income comparable to this pandemic.
Moderna: Sell the Break Setup Moderna - Short Term - We look to Sell a break of 137.05 (stop at 147.24)
A move through bespoke support at 140.00 and we look for extended losses. Closed below the 20-day EMA. The primary trend remains bearish. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 108.99 and 103.50
Resistance: 150.00 / 170.00 / 200.00
Support: 140.00 / 120.00 / 100.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
MRNA and PFE are going to crash even harder....$MRNA is currently running trials on an HIV vaccine.
Why?
Because they, as well $PFE, with the vaccines and the booster programs have now decimated people's immune systems.
$PFE at least has other products on the market, they may ultimately survive, but this could be the end of $MRNA.
People are dying of Vaccine induced AIDS.
The media and world leaders (lead by Prince Harry) are now advocating for the normalization of HIV testing.
WE WILL NOT FORGET, AND WE WILL NOT FORGIVE.