MICROSTRATEGY Top of the Channel. Time for a shortterm pullback?MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) has been trading inside a logarithmic Channel Up on the 1D time-frame since the December 30 2022 bottom. The price is currently at the very top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the pattern and that is a technical bearish signal on its own.
It gets increasingly relevant though if we consider the 1D RSI which is overbought and at its highest level since November 13 2023 and more importantly, the remarkable symmetry among the phases of the Channel Up.
As you ca see the price action from the October 04 2023 Higher Low until today is very similar with the price action from the December 30 2022 bottom until (so far) the April 14 2023 High. Both started on a +136.17% rise then -40% correction and a Channel Up rebound for a new Higher High. The symmetry is evident among the 1D RSI sequences as well.
If this continues to hold, we should be expecting a -22.88% pull-back followed by a +77.48% rally that will break above the long-term Channel Up, which would inevitably do at some point since the stock price is so positively correlated to Bitcoin's price.
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Microstrategy
MSTR Bitcoin Boom: Saylor's Bold Moves Yield 46% Surge in a WeekMicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has emerged as a beacon of innovation and foresight, led by the visionary Michael Saylor. As the clamor for cryptocurrency reaches a fever pitch, Saylor's strategic maneuvers have positioned MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) at the forefront of the Bitcoin revolution, yielding a remarkable 46% surge in stock value within a single week.
Saylor's Revelations: Unveiling the Demand for Bitcoin ETFs
At the heart of MicroStrategy's meteoric rise lies Michael Saylor's keen insight into the burgeoning demand for Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). With investors clamoring for traditional avenues to access the digital currency, Saylor's bold assertion of a tenfold increase in ETF demand underscores MicroStrategy's ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) astute alignment with market dynamics.
MicroStrategy's Strategic Shift: From Software Titan to Cryptocurrency Leader
Gone are the days when MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) was solely synonymous with software solutions. Under Saylor's guidance, the company has undergone a seismic strategic shift, rebranding itself as a vanguard in the realm of cryptocurrency. By amassing substantial holdings of Bitcoin, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) has not only embraced the digital currency but has also cemented its status as a trailblazer in the field.
Despite this pivot, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) remains steadfast in its commitment to its core software and business intelligence offerings, which continue to serve as linchpins of revenue generation and client satisfaction. This delicate balance between tradition and innovation underscores MicroStrategy's versatility and resilience in a rapidly evolving market landscape.
Future Growth Strategies: Pioneering Financial Planning for the Digital Age
Looking ahead, Michael Saylor has outlined a vision for MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) that transcends mere adaptation; it encapsulates a proactive pursuit of growth and value creation. By leveraging capital markets and exploring strategic initiatives such as stock splits and capital restructuring, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) aims to optimize its financial resources to fuel expansion and innovation.
Conclusion
In conclusion, MicroStrategy's ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) meteoric ascent amid the Bitcoin boom epitomizes the power of visionary leadership and strategic foresight. Under Michael Saylor's stewardship, the company has not only embraced the winds of change but has also harnessed them to soar to new heights of success and prosperity. As the cryptocurrency revolution continues to unfold, MicroStrategy ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) stands poised at the vanguard, a beacon of innovation illuminating the path forward for investors and industry titans alike.
BTC vs. MSTRI just did a little study lately regarding BTC and MSTR. The probability of breaking the lower side of this triangle is a bit higher, which should favor investment in MSTR over BTC. Whether you are buying Bitcoin on a crypto exchange or through one of these (upcoming?) BTC/USD spot ETFs.
Navigating MicroStrategy's Future
MicroStrategy Inc (NASDAQ:$ MSTR), a key player in enterprise analytics and mobility software, recently caught the attention of investors with the news of Executive Chairman and 10% Owner Michael Saylor selling 5,000 shares on January 25, 2024. This move adds to a series of sales totaling 85,000 shares over the past year, without any corresponding insider purchases. This article delves into the implications of these insider transactions, examines the company's overall performance, and analyzes technical indicators to provide investors with a comprehensive outlook.
Insider Selling Patterns:
Insider transactions often serve as valuable signals for investors trying to gauge the health and confidence of a company's leadership. Michael Saylor's consistent selling over the past year raises questions about the motives behind the divestitures. Investors should closely monitor such patterns, as they can sometimes provide insight into the leadership's perception of the company's future prospects.
Company Overview:
MicroStrategy Inc has carved a niche for itself in the enterprise analytics and mobility software sector. The company's offerings, including MicroStrategy Analytics, MicroStrategy Mobile, and Usher, enable organizations to analyze vast amounts of data, deliver actionable insights, and provide digital credential and identity intelligence solutions.
Technical Analysis:
MicroStrategy's stock has been on an upward trajectory within a rising trend channel in the medium to long term. This suggests sustained investor confidence, with shares consistently being bought at higher prices. The recent positive signal from the inverse head and shoulders formation, marked by a break above the resistance at 321, adds another layer of optimism. Analysts anticipate a further rise, with a target set at 691 or beyond.
However, the stock is currently approaching a critical support level at $460. This level is expected to trigger a positive reaction, providing a potential buying opportunity. Investors should closely monitor whether the stock can hold above this support, as a break below could signal a negative trend reversal.
Conclusion:
MicroStrategy Inc's ( NASDAQ:MSTR ) recent insider selling, technical indicators, and overall market sentiment present a mixed picture for investors. While the insider selling may raise concerns, the positive technical signals and the company's strong position in the enterprise software space suggest a nuanced evaluation is necessary.
GBTC BullishBullish on two potential scenarios.
I am not a financial advisor. This is not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendation.
Bearish Crab Visible on the Crypto/Blockchain ETFBLOK is an ETF aimed at holding many Crypto and Blockchain related stocks, some of its top holdings include COIN, MSTR, MARA, RIOT, and SBI Holdings. There was a time in late 2021 where it had topped out at the PCZ of a Bearish Gartley/Bat confluence zone depending on how you plotted it and it has since gone down over 66%, however in recent months, we've seen the price of the stock begin to recover as it has made a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the all-time high to the most recent lows. The original level it bounced from was the 0.886 of a Bullish Shark, however we may now see this shark turn into a Bearish 5-0 as the 0.382 aligns with the PCZ of a more local Bearish Butterfly and this could result in BLOK making a lower low and would overall be a more profitable and slightly indirect way to get bearish options positioning on Coinbase and Microstrategy without buying into the overpriced puts of the underlying assets.
I will leave an link to the previous 2021 bearish setup on BLOK which resulted in the top for reference as well as a link to the bullish setup that has just played its course on COIN in the related ideas section below.
💾 MicroStrategy Set To Grow Like There's No TomorrowI love the "Community trends" on the front page... TradingView is great.
With this new feature I can see stocks/assets that I would never think of looking at otherwise.
Here we have MicroStrategy, MSTR.
I know about Mr. Michael Saylor as he is a huge Bitcoin fan like most of us.
He also wrote the foreword for the best selling Bitcoin book ever and it was nice to see his opinion about this game we now have been playing for so long.
MicroStrategy is set to grow like there is no tomorrow...
At least that's the message that I am getting from this chart.
I am using the weekly timeframe because long-term gives you a better perspective, short-term there is always too much "noise".
The first thing to look at is the broader cycle and that's the All-Time High, February 2021, almost two years have gone by since this level was hit.
The first thing that caught my attention is the current consolidation pattern and how the bulls are already showing up and strong.
This weekly candle is already trading above EMA21 and EMA10... There is a strong bullish divergence on the RSI since May 2022.
Also, the low in December 2022 came in higher than May, a higher low...
These signals put together make a strong case for bullish growth.
I write these signals for you... But what catches my attention from the go is this sort of "M" pattern, bullish bat, gartley, etc. too many names it has...
This pattern is like a falling wedge in the sense that it has a very high level of accuracy.
It is a bullish pattern of course and once it shows up... The chart tends to shoot up.
You can find the resistance levels marked on the chart (light green) and blue for support.
Namaste.
💾 MicroStrategy Has More To Give!In the past, now many years ago, we would have the "wait for the confirmation" crowd which turned into "wait for the earnings"...
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is trading below EMA50 weekly.
Is this a bearish or bullish signal?
Should we "wait for confirmation"?
Meaning, wait for it to break and close above EMA50 before taking action!
In a way yes, this can be done and there are many different ways to approach a trade, a market... Different trading systems and strategies, so it isn't a bad thing but, with a wider perspective, with so many tools, with so many charts, confirmation can be gotten for other places.
The markets evolve and we have to also evolve and adapt.
Each year, each cycle it becomes harder and harder, the bots become smarter and the risk increases...
Anyway, knowing what we know and seeing the other charts/pairs/stocks already going ahead... The market is interrelated/linked/connected, so we know this chart will do the same.
The confirmation already happened with the strong RSI and the close above EMA10.
We can always wait for the next confirmation...
Or we can buy at the bottom (see 'Related ideas') and ride up the full bullish wave.
Check the "first (main target - high probability)" on the chart.
Instead of waiting for confirmation, you can use a tight stop-loss.
Namaste.
ICP will thriveICP holders had a hard time after the FTX manipulation disaster, most of them are trapped in the 30-100$ range. A lot of people sold out of frustration. It will be a choppy road but if the right catalysts kick in this coin could go way past 150$ like MSTR (MicroStrategy) did back then to 400$.
MicroStrategy Buys $615 Million Worth of Bitcoin, $50,000 Soon?With the recent purchase, MicroStrategy's total Bitcoin worth on balance sheet has reached a staggering $6 billion.
As the Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) price managed to contain its losses to $42,00 after a sell-off earlier today, big players are making the most of the dip. In the latest announcement, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor declared that his firm has made a fresh purchase of $615 million worth of Bitcoins.
MicroStrategy Buys 14,000+ Bitcoins
In a recent announcement, MicroStrategy Chairman Michael Saylor revealed the acquisition of an additional 14,620 BTC for approximately $615.7 million. The average purchase price per Bitcoin stood at $42,110. As of December 26, 2023, MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings reached 189,150 BTC, acquired for around $5.9 billion. The average cost per Bitcoin in this extensive holding stands at $31,168. This move reaffirms MicroStrategy’s commitment to Bitcoin as a strategic part of its treasury reserve.
Everyone in the crypto community is awaiting the launch of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. As per the tentative schedule, this shall happen by January 10 i.e. within a fortnight.
When asked about the potential negative impact of an ETF launch on MSTR, Saylor asserted that MicroStrategy stands apart due to its status as an operating company, unlike ETFs that are unleveraged and charge fees.
He underscored MicroStrategy’s ability to generate additional BTC through profit and loss (P&L) or capital markets operations. Using an analogy, Saylor likened MicroStrategy to an airline, highlighting its unique position compared to ETFs, which he compared to shipping lines. In essence, he suggested that MicroStrategy offers higher performance and leverage without associated fees.
BTC Price to $50,000?
The Bitcoin price has recovered to $43,000 at press time after facing a major drop earlier today. Currently, Bitcoin has been oscillating in the tight range of $42,000-$44,000. Breaking the upper resistance, the BTC price could make a move into the zone of $47,000-$50,000.
Buy MicroStrategy Stock With BTC, Blockstream CEO Adam Back SaysBlockstream CEO, Adam Back revealed that based on the current performance of MicroStrategy and Bitcoin, buying seem a good idea.
Blockstream co-founder and CEO Adam Back has reiterated the fact that many experts are beginning to take cognizance of MicroStrategy Inc.’s constantly increasing Bitcoin per share.
Based on this, he advised that investors to buy MicroStrategy stock with Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy is Winning
Back’s X post came as a reaction to an earlier insight from Ecoinometrics which pointed out that the business intelligence and software firm is winning as it relates to a chart showing MSTR’s stock price performance concerning the current performance of flagship cryptocurrency Bitcoin.
The attention that MicroStrategy is getting presently does not come as a surprise especially as the firm has been raking in more Bitcoin in line with its Treasury Reserve Allocation policy. A few days ago, the Bitcoin-friendly firm purchased of 16,130 BTC at approximately $593.3 million. Each unit of the new Bitcoin acquisition had an average price of $36,785.
Markedly, the purchase brought the current Bitcoin holding of MicroStrategy to a total of 174,530 BTC, considering that the firm had earlier bought 155 units of Bitcoin for $5.3 million as announced in November. As of November 29, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin portfolio holds as much as 174,530 units of BTC valued at approximately $5.28 billion at an average price of $30,252 per Bitcoin. With the current price of Bitcoin at $41,875.79, the firm is in a major profit on its stack.
MSTR vs Bitcoin Performance
Bitcoin has been on a positive momentum for the last few weeks, driven by some events including the evolving anticipation for spot Bitcoin ETF approval from the United States SEC and the Federal Reserve’s decision to suspend interest rate hikes.
The leading cryptocurrency is stealthily approaching $40,000 and inching towards a new high for 2023. With its price of $38,792.97, the coin is now up 11% for the month
With the volume of BTC that MicroStrategy owns, the current market situation places the firm in an impressive position with profit enough to cover the senior convertible notes debt it has accrued as some of its BTC assets were purchased with the credit.
In addition, MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) is equally performing outstandingly well in the market. According to data from MarketWatch, the stock price is now valued at $529.98 with a 0.44% per its close on Friday. This improvement is another indication that Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin strategy is a good choice.
By a large margin, the coin’s stock has outperformed its peers since it adopted its Bitcoin strategy.
Technical Analysis
MSTR is trading near the top of its 52-week range and above its 200-day simple moving average.
Investors have been pushing the share price higher, and the stock still appears to have upward momentum. This is a positive sign for the stock's future value.
Shorting Bitcoin via MSTRIf one wants to hedge against the current ETF inspired rally in Bitcoin without selling their Bitcoin a good candidate to 'short' would be MSTR (Microstrategy). The stock is "hard to borrow" meaning it is difficult to short the shares but the options chain is relatively liquid enough to accomplish the bearish thesis.
Technically, both Bitcoin and MSTR are hitting major Weekly Resistances today at the same time. Bitcoin is hitting its COVID low > ATH 50% Retracement level at 36439 while MSTR its November 2021 > May 2022 trend 50% Retracement at 512.73.
Expressing the trade with Puts is not only perhaps the only way for most traders to do so but also advantageous with the current Implied volatility being "low" relative to the last year. This means that if the trade goes in favor of the position IV should rise and add to the profitability.
Wall Street Bulls Look Optimistic About MicroStrategy (MSTR)MicroStrategy currently has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.60, on a scale of 1 to 5 (Strong Buy to Strong Sell), calculated based on the actual recommendations (Buy, Hold, Sell, etc.) made by five brokerage firms. An ABR of 1.60 approximates between Strong Buy and Buy.
While the ABR calls for buying MicroStrategy, it may not be wise to make an investment decision solely based on this information. Several studies have shown limited to no success of brokerage recommendations in guiding investors to pick stocks with the best price increase potential.
Do you wonder why? As a result of the vested interest of brokerage firms in a stock they cover, their analysts tend to rate it with a strong positive bias. According to our research, brokerage firms assign five "Strong Buy" recommendations for every "Strong Sell" recommendation.
This means that the interests of these institutions are not always aligned with those of retail investors, giving little insight into the direction of a stock's future price movement. It would therefore be best to use this information to validate your own analysis or a tool that has proven to be highly effective at predicting stock price movements.
With an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool, the Zacks Rank, which classifies stocks into five groups, ranging from Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) to Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell), is a reliable indicator of a stock's near -term price performance. So, validating the Zacks Rank with ABR could go a long way in making a profitable investment decision.
MSTR MicroStrategy Puts and the Cryptocurrency LandscapeIf you haven`t sold MSTR here:
Then you need to understand the recent crypto landscape:
Binance disputes the SEC's allegations of mishandling customer funds, deceiving investors, and violating securities laws.
The legal battle between Binance and the SEC has sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency community.
Binance and its affiliates assert that the SEC is overreaching its jurisdiction on digital assets, especially without any clear legislative guidance from Congress. The original lawsuit, filed in June, accused Binance of unlawfully listing unregistered securities.
Historically, the actions of whales have been instrumental in shaping the price movements of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.
Non-whale addresses, those holding less than 100 BTC, now account for over 41% of the total Bitcoin supply. Meanwhile, whales, entities holding between 100 and 100,000 BTC, have witnessed a decline in their collective holdings to 55.5%, marking their lowest ownership level since May.
The decrease in whale holdings could signal a potential change in the market's dynamics, potentially leading to increased volatility and uncertainty.
These developments collectively cast a shadow over the cryptocurrency market's near-term prospects.
In this context, I`m considering the following puts for MSTR MicroStrategy:
2023-10-20 expiration date
$307.50 strike price
$12.60 premium
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
MSTR next FTX bubble MicroStrategy owns 152,800 BTC bought for $4.53 billion.The company has $2.2 billion of debt issued by MicroStrategy, the parent company, consisting of $500 million of 6.125% senior secured notes due 2028 (the “secured notes”) and two series of convertible notes, one maturing in 2025 and the other in 2027 (together, the “convertible notes”). The secured notes are guaranteed by MicroStrategy’s subsidiaries (other than MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries) and are secured by substantially all of MicroStrategy’s assets, which include its software business and, as of Sept. 30, 2022, a total of 14,890 bitcoin.
Although MacroStrategy and its subsidiaries are technically restricted subsidiaries under MicroStrategy’s secured notes, in many ways they have the freedom of an unrestricted subsidiary, including their ability to incur debt secured by their bitcoin holdings.MacroStrategy is carved out from the limitations of the debt covenant, so it can incur unlimited debt. In addition, any crypto assets held by MacroStrategy at the time the secured notes were issued are carved out of the liens covenant; as a result, MacroStrategy may incur unlimited debt secured by the bitcoin that it held on the date the secured notes were issued.
The fact is that FTX and Alameda were created by one person - Sam Bankman-Freed. And from the very beginning, Alameda served as a liquidity provider on FTX. Alameda wallets interacted with FTX even before the launch in May 2019 and apart from other addresses, it was the only clearly identifiable counterparty. In 2020, the chief engineer of the FTX crypto exchange made secret changes to the exchange software. They allowed Alameda Research, owned by Sam Bankman-Fried, to continue to borrow funds from FTX regardless of the value of the collateral.
Weller said the prospect of such a fund coming to market after about a decade of trying by a number of issuers could pose a "big risk" for MicroStrategy.
“Many investors are buying MicroStrategy shares as a widely available proxy to gain exposure to bitcoin,” he said. “But if a simple, low-fee alternative emerges, much of the current demand for the stock could dry up, leaving a costly, slow-growing operating company to manage a cumbersome, unstable balance sheet.”
The Spot Bitcoin ETF, if approved, “won’t offer the same leverage returns as MicroStrategy,” Saylor said during the company’s Aug. 1 earnings announcement.
However, he acknowledged that a subset of institutional investors would choose Bitcoin ETFs to participate in this space.
I'll draw an analogy. Think of the rest yourself. The debtor company has doubled its capital. This is Carl's air, emptiness! Bitcoin-ETF no longer needs an intermediary in the form of this company, which can repeat the fate of FTX. Half of the Bitcoins will have to be sold on the market if the Bitcoin ETF spot is approved, because 2.2 billion debts and unlimited lending to yourself may end. Even now, investors will have a reason to doubt Michael Saylor and withdraw their funds, which will deprive the company of reliability. Will he repeat the fate of Sam? Time will show.
MicroStrategy Coiled: Are Bitcoin Bulls Ready for $35,000 in AugMicroStrategy Incorporated provides enterprise analytics software and services in the United States, Canada, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It offers MicroStrategy, an enterprise analytics software platform that enables users to create visualizations, customize apps, and embed analytics directly into workflows; and MicroStrategy Cloud Environment, a managed software-as-a-service solution, which offers always-on threat monitoring and enables rapid analytics development and deployment to deliver security and data privacy requirements. The company also provides MicroStrategy Support that helps customers to achieve their system availability
MicroStrategy Bitcoin PurchasesMicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchases on the CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart.
This chart includes the dates, amount, and average price, of Bitcoin purchases announced by Michael Saylor on Twitter and includes data from buybitcoinworldwide.com for purchases not announced by Michael Saylor.
MSTR BULL RALLY AHEADFor more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.
MSTR is a Discount Bitcoin Spot ETFYear to date Bitcoin has out performed the NASDAQ and GOLD but if you don't have access or knowhow to buy Bitcoin direct you can look into MSTR.
There is more risk to own MSTR since it's centrally controlled but if you want to have some Bitcoin exposure during these crazy time you might be able to play this strategy
Not Financial advise.
Be safe out there
~S
MSTR D1 UPDATE ( TECHNICAL )For more updates, please follow my TradingView page, and if you find the content useful, kindly hit the "thumbs up" button to show your support. If you have any queries regarding trading, please feel free to send me a direct message on TradingView. Additionally, please share this content with your friends who may find it beneficial.
Please note that any trading updates provided here are for educational purposes only, and it is always advisable to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. It is important to ensure that all conditions are met before following any trade plan suggested in this update.