FIrst long then posible short againGold managed to break the bearish trendline resistance. I have adviced members to buy the market on retest confirmation. Bullish targets are 2024, 2030 and posible 2040(depends)
In the long run waiting for proper confirmation for sells around 2030 or 2040. But only if priceaction confirms it. Then we can sell the market for targets: 2020, 2007, 2000
Resistance: 2020, 2030, 2040
Support: 2013, 2007, 1990
Metal
Old But Gold 🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 Gold has been overall bearish, trading within the falling wedge pattern in blue.
At present, XAUUSD is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the upper blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
Moreover, it is retesting a strong resistance zone marked in green.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the green resistance and upper red trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #XAUUSD approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a top bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Will gold remain bearish?Last week was very profitable for us. Adviced to short the market around 2060 and Gold fell over 370pips.
This week there are 2 scenerio's. We have a daily support trend wich can push gold back up. But also 2030 is very strong resistance now. In my opinion we need to find good sell positions, but be aware off the red line support zone. Bearish target 2005 and 1982.
"Sell the highs"
Resistance: 2030, 2040,2052
Support: 2019, 2005, 2000
After bullrun bearish market will return.After the breakout off the bearish channel in H4 i adviced to go long in the gold market. Wich was accurate and gold hit both targets!. (See last analysis)
What now? Price action wise. The monthly candle closed with a bearish candle. Wich indicates there will be a bearish movement on the way. Also gold manage to hit the strong resistance/supply zone around 2060-2065. From here we can expect a bearish move with targets 2042 ad 2025. In the long run posible back to 2007.
We have a strong support bullish trendlne wich keeps respecting. For any further fall we need an confirmed break. Also 2030 is building strong support. But i do expect a break from both support levels.
THis above is all based on technical viewpoint. Be carefull with open positions tomorrow because off NFP high impact news!
Resistance: 2060, 2070
Support: 2048, 2040, 2030
Gold broke out the bearish channel. Whats next?Today seller lost the momentum. Gold broke out the channel and already retested around 2028-2030. Look like daily will stays above the retest zone. We should look for buys with posible target such as 2040-2052
Resistance: 2040, 2052, 2070
Support: 2030, 2025, 2012
Still bearish outlook in bigger pictureLast week after a bearish movement gold rejected around psycological support level 2000, wich is also daily support level. GOld managed to move around 380pips without a proper rejections at certain resistance levels. Posible gold moved on fundamentals because off wars going on around the world. GOld remains a save asset.
Technical in the bigger picture were still in a bearish market. From my perspective i see 2 scenerio's. Next week we will focus on selling the market either from resistance level 2032 or wait for gold to climb towards around trend resistance level(yellow line)
In the daily timeframe we broke out off the support and is currently retesting this zone. But we should not enter on such high timeframe and look for confirmations in lowertime frame such as m30,m15 and m5.(See updated post for the daily timeframe overview)
resistance: 2032, 2040, 2050, 2070
Support: 2025, 2016, 2005, 2000
Golden Opportunities: Navigating the Ups and Downs of the GoldIntroduction:
Hey there! Have you been keeping an eye on the gold market lately? It's been a rollercoaster ride, and there's a lot to unpack. Whether you're a seasoned gold bug or just dabbling in precious metals, understanding the recent fluctuations in gold prices is crucial. Let's dive into what's been happening with our shiny friend, gold, and explore some strategies to potentially benefit from the current market scenario.
Understanding the Current Gold Market Dynamics:
The Fed's Influence:
The Federal Reserve is like the DJ at the gold market's party. When they crank up interest rates, gold doesn't dance as much. Why? Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Recently, the market's been buzzing with the Fed's hawkish stance, reducing expectations of an early rate cut in March 2024. This shift has put some pressure on gold prices.
Economic Data – The Mood Setter:
Strong U.S. economic data, including retail sales and labor market figures, have shown that the economy is still grooving strong. This resilience suggests that the Fed might keep interest rates higher for longer to manage growth and inflation. For gold, this means less glitter as investors turn to yield-bearing assets.
Geopolitical Tensions – The Wild Card:
Now, let's not forget the global stage. The escalating military conflict in the Middle East has been like a sudden change in the playlist, causing some investors to cling to gold as a safe-haven asset. This demand provides a floor to gold prices, preventing them from free-falling.
Conclusion:
The gold market is dynamic, influenced by a mix of economic policies, global events, and market sentiment. As investors and traders, staying informed and adaptable is key. Whether you're looking to diversify, buy on the dip, or just understand the market better, there's always an opportunity to shine in the gold market. Keep your eyes peeled, and who knows, you might just find your golden opportunity!
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Copper Equities Breaking Down, Is tthe economy?Copper is very close to losing criyical support.
If this daily chart trendline breaks, there is a big move down into the next support.
Copper Equity stocks are already teing us aa likely breakdown in the commodity is coming.
Is this base metal signaling weaker economic demand & growth?
GOLD|Important supply and demand areasCurrently, in the one-hour period, the $2060 area can be a good place for sell positions, of course, be careful not to enter the trade without confirmation.
In the first reaction to this area, it went up from the price of 2017$ to 2040$, it gave us a profit of about 230 pips. In the second reaction, collected all the liquidity at the bottom of the range and moved up 2% from there.And moved up about 450 pips.
Right now we see that it is bullish in reaction to the demand range.In smaller time frames, it is more likely that it will not react to the range ahead, so if it does not confirm, do not enter the trade.
There is a possibility that it will go up to the range of 2080. you can look for a sales position there.
This week, look for scalp positions in smaller time frames, even though gold is very bullish this week.
In the one-hour time frame, we have the supply and demand of these areas, when we reach these areas, we can have buy or sell positions.
A Bit More Downside For Silver In The Near Term?Although recently we saw a price rebound in EASYMARKETS:XAGUSD , still, the commodity remains below our 200-day EMA and a short-term downside resistance line drawn from the high of December 3rd. That said, in order to continue aiming lower, a break below the 22.51 hurdle, marked near the lows of December 13th and January 11th, would be needed. Until then, we will take a cautiously bearish approach in the near term.
If, eventually, we do see a price-drop below the 22.51 zone, this will confirm a forthcoming lower low, possibly clearing the path towards the next key support area, at 21.88, which is the lowest point of November 2023. If the bears cannot stop there, the next potential target for EASYMARKETS:XAGUSD might be near the medium-term tentative upside support line taken from the lowest point of March 2023.
Alternatively, a break of the previously mentioned downside line and a push above the 23.54 barrier may attract more buying interest. EASYMARKETS:XAGUSD could then travel to the 24.60 territory, marked by the high of December 22nd, where a temporary hold-up might occur. If the bulls continue to charge, this may result in a further move north, potentially aiming for the highest point of December, at 25.92.
Disclaimer:
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Gold remains bearish. Focus on sellsGold ended last week very unstable. Because off NFP and PPI news. Gold gave big moves ranging from 200pips up to 400pips. AFter tapping the trend resistance(yellow line) gold rejecten very strong.
Atm were in a bearish channel. We should respect the currenct bearish trend and focus on selling the market. 2047 is resistance, either gold fall from here or move up first for another test off the upper channel resistance. level 2032 is important for gold. It's a very strong support level. If gold manage to break this level with confirmation then add more sells immidiatly
Overal midterm bearish targets are 2018 and 2007.
Resistance: 2047, 2056, 2071
Support: 2031, 2017,2005
After retracement posible another bearish move?After the obvious head and shoulder pattern and the break off the bullish channel i adviced to keep shorting the market. Gold fell deep and we took some winning trades. 2030 is key level. If this level stays intact it will go up again. Gold eventually did reject.
Atm i am focusing on the 2055 resistance level to go short again with targets such ass 2045 and 2032. Posible we will see a break off 2030, because this zone got tested multiple times. If we get proper confirmation then we need to add more sells below 2030.
Resistance: 2055, 2070, 2090
Support: 2045, 2031
2024 Week01 analysis. What can we expect?Last week of 2023 was a good tradingweek for us. After gold fell from 2090 an broke below 2072. We sold the market. Currently gold is moving between 2 channels. 1 big bull channel(yellow) and 1 smaller bearish channel(orange)
Below 2072 we need to focus on selling the market. ATM gold respected the support channel last week and gave a rejection to the upside. A better confirmation would be waiting for a proper break below off the bullish channel(yellow) Then we can add sells with first target 2047. If gold mange to push up again then wait for proper confirmation around 2072 for sells.
In the long run i am focusing on 2047 for potential going long again. But we need to follow priceaction around that level. Bullish target from here are 2070, 2090 and 2100
resistance: 2072, 2090, 2100
Support: 2047, 2032, 2018
What will be next for gold?This week i adviced to keep selling under 2070 big resistance after confirmation. Although we got some rejections bulls manage to push back to the resistance zone. I told everyone the moment 2070 breaks with confirmation we need to add buys. SO eventually gold broke 2070 and i instantly change strategy to adding buys. WE took great profits from here.
In the bigger picture we had 2085 wich is resistance in smaller timeframe(M30 and H1) Went short but missed our TP by 20 pips. For know 2085 up to 2090 is resistance. If we break above there is only 2100(Psycological resistance) and 2150(Last known high. So that said there isnt much resisance for gold.
Either expecting a pullback from here back to 2070 support. We can buy from here again. Or wait for the drop to 1 of the support trendlines.
I am not willing to sell gold yet. We need proper confirmations, because were trading against the trend...
Resistance: 2085-2090, 2100, 2150
Support: 2070, 2050
all that glitters is not gold 🥇Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📌 Weekly: Left Chart
From a long-term perspective, Gold appears to be confined within a range, currently nearing its upper boundary.
As long as the 2100.0 resistance holds, the possibility of a bearish correction persists. Confirmation of a bearish reversal setup would depend on lower timeframes.
📌 H1 : Right Chart
From a short-term perspective, the Gold market structure has been clean lately.
Every time a low or high is broken, it signals a short-term trend reversal.
If we follow the same logic, the bulls are currently in control.
For the bears to take over, a break below the last low highlighted in red is needed. In this case, we anticipate a bearish movement till the 1985.0 demand zone.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
Gold Rush with AI: Is a Bullish Trend broken?Dear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the intricate dance of financial markets, recent analytics hinted at a potential dip in Gold prices towards the next support zone, resting delicately around the current trendline and $1920. In a broader view of gold, the prevailing trend remains steadfastly bullish. The recent descent, therefore, wasn't a harbinger of a bearish trend but rather a retracement within the overarching bullish narrative. Retracements, akin to ripples in a vast river, move against the current without altering its course.
I n this light, the bullish trajectory of Gold persists, despite the transient shadow of bearish developments. The true nature of this episode—whether a mere retracement within a bullish trajectory or the inception of a bearish divergence—might unveil itself by the first quarter of 2024. For those inclined towards the former, signs may include ascending RSI values, dwindling volume bars, and price actions hovering modestly above the demand zone.
H owever, should this unfold as a pivot towards a bearish trajectory, anticipate a descent where RSI mirrors the fall in price, breaching the demand zone, and volume maintains its pressure at a consistent or escalating level? While my inclination leans towards the bullish scenario, it's imperative to remain vigilant of the alternate narrative.
N avigating the dynamic terrain of financial markets involves intuition and a judicious blend of analytical prowess and cutting-edge tools. In my recent analysis, I utilized Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) to sculpt the contours of my demand zone, adding a layer of sophistication to the predictive landscape.
So, what are GBMs?
G radient Boosting Machines stand as a formidable force in machine learning. A distinguished member of the ensemble learning family, GBMs artfully weave together multiple decision trees, harmonizing their collective insights to refine predictions. While their computational prowess is undeniable, it's worth noting that GBMs tread on the more resource-intensive side, making them a powerful yet demanding ally in the quest for accuracy.
A dvantages of GBMs include the capacity to attain high accuracy levels and tackle intricately woven datasets with finesse. However, this prowess comes at a cost—GBMs can be computationally demanding during the training phase and exhibit sensitivity to the choice of hyperparameters.
I n tandem with GBMs, my analysis delves into the nuanced language of financial indicators, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and volume. RSI, a stalwart in technical analytics, gauges the magnitude of recent price changes, offering insights into the overbought or oversold nature of an asset. Volume is the heartbeat of market movements, signaling the intensity and sustainability of price shifts.
T ogether, these tools form a symphony of insights, guiding us through the intricate dance of market dynamics. As always, this isn't investment advice but a shared exploration of market intricacies. Your funds are your responsibility, and understanding the tools at your disposal empowers you in this journey.
It isn't investment advice but a nudge to delve into your research. Your funds are your responsibility—handle them with care. Embrace risk-management strategies, explore available safety nets, and prioritize the preservation of funds over fleeting gains.
Warm regards,
Ely
Gold Rush with AI: Analyzing a Bullish TrendIntroduction
G old has always been an intriguing asset for investors, often seen as a store of value and a hedge against economic uncertainty. In this analysis, we take a closer look at a chart showing the price of Gold (OZ) on the Gold-USD market compared to USD ($) to identify trends and potential scenarios for gold's future price movement. So, let's dive into the chart and explore the dynamics of the Gold market.
Bullish Momentum
T he chart reveals a powerful bullish trend in the Gold market, culminating in a local bullish double top pattern on October 27 and October 31, with the price reaching around $2010. This bullish momentum signals a robust demand for gold, driven by various factors like geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
A Double Top Formation
T he double top formation represents a potential turning point in the market. While there are no immediate signs of a bearish reversal, the double top could trigger a consolidation phase. This consolidation might occur within the price range of $1952 (support line) to $2010, forming a support zone indicated by the blue rectangle on the chart.
T he consolidation period is depicted by the white arrow on the chart and could extend until December. This consolidation isn't necessarily a sign of weakness but can be seen as a sign of increasing investor interest and strengthened buying power.
Investor Opportunity
A prolonged consolidation provides an opportunity for both new and existing investors to consider buying into the market. It allows gold to gather sufficient funding, and as long as the investor sentiment remains positive, there's a chance that the price could break the resistance zone (purple rectangle on the chart) between $2002 and $2010.
Further Upside Potential
E ven if the price breaks through this resistance zone, it doesn't necessarily mark the end of the bullish trend. It could trigger further consolidation or higher resistance zones as potential targets. The next significant resistance zone to watch out for is between $2055 and $2065.
Bearish Concerns
H owever, if gold falls from the support zone, it raises doubts about the sustainability of the bullish trend. In such a scenario, the next support zone could be around $1904, where a possible bearish reversal might be considered.
Volume and Investor Sentiment
A part from price and technical indicators, the chart analysis also considers trading volume. In October and November, the volume has been consistently high, suggesting a global need for diversification with gold in portfolios containing indices and other assets. Investors continue to view gold as a valuable precious metal for diversifying complex portfolios, particularly in uncertain economic times.
Key Drivers for Gold Investment
S everal factors are driving investor sentiment towards gold. These include concerns about high inflation in national currencies, increasing oil prices, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and the long-standing belief that gold tends to rise during times of war.
Conclusion
W hile this analysis provides insights into the current gold market trends, it's essential to remember that investing in gold is a long-term strategy. The precious metal serves as a hedge in complex portfolios and aims for long-term appreciation rather than fast gains.
P lease note that this analysis is not investment advice, and historic results do not guarantee future results. Always conduct your research and consider various safety measures when making investment decisions.
Kind regards,
Ely
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or an endorsement of any specific investment. Trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for every investor. You should carefully consider your financial situation and consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Montly candle closure! In a couple hours we will have montly candle closure. GOld is forming new grounds. If we look at the montly timeframe, notice that al the previous montly candles closed below 1993. This will be the first time a montly candle closes above! This indicates strong support will create around that level
SO what does this mean, what is next for gold?
Today 2050 was the zone i adviced to short the market. Sellers will try bring the market down before montly candle closes. From 2050 gold fell as low as 2030(200pips) My view is 100% bullish. After a correction the next bull wave will start. I am aiming around 2022 zone to go long or 2005 zone. With targets 2048 and 2067(around ATH). We can expect a good rejection around ATH like 3 times in the past, but this time i think it will be different rejection. Not as powerfull as before. In the long run 2070 will break and gold will move in a complete new area wich has never been seen before.
In the past we had 3 times testing the ATH zone off approx 2070(tripple top) In the near future we will see new ath 2100+
*The given long posititions are indications not signals.
Resistance: 2050, 2070(ATH)
Support: 2030, 2022, 2005, 1992
Gold - Macro View 🌎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📌 Monthly: Left Chart
From a macro perspective, Gold has been generally bullish, trading within the rising brown channel.
For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the 2075.0 level is essential. In this scenario, a continuation toward the upper boundary of the brown channel can be anticipated.
📌 Weekly: Right Chart
Meanwhile, from a medium to long-term perspective, Gold appears to be confined within a range, currently nearing its upper boundary.
As long as the 2075.0 resistance holds, the possibility of a bearish correction persists. Confirmation of a bearish reversal setup would depend on lower timeframes.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
What's next for gold. Retracement? or bearish movement ahead.Last week was a very good week for us. We targeted mutipe levels and suceeded. 1935 was my last target for bears. Before market closure gold manage to hit our target.
So whats next? in my opinion 2 scenario's. 1932's is a support level were a posible pullback can follow. We need to follow priceaction after market openings to decide we go long. Target for bulls are 1964 and 1976 in the longrun.
THe second scenario is were the bearish momentum continueus If 1932's get broken with confirmation we need to add more sells for targets 1915 and 1905.
We also need to pay atention to the current Bearish channel. FOr bulls to regain power we need a break of this channel.
Stay tuned.
Resistance: 1947,1964, 1976,
Support: 1932, 1915, 1905
ALUMINIUM PRICES MIGHT BE PULLED UP DUE TO CHINA DEMANDChina's aluminum market in 2023 stands out for its resilience, with prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) bucking global trends by climbing over 1%, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) saw an 8% slump. This divergence is largely credited to the strength of China's green sector and decarbonization efforts. An open arbitrage window, created by SHFE outperforming LME, has led to a substantial increase in aluminum imports into China, mainly from Russia due to sanctions imposed by Western buyers after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Despite the surge in imports, domestic aluminum production in China has reached new highs, partly due to an improved hydropower supply in Yunnan province. However, potential disruptions during the upcoming dry season could impact production and increase imports. Low domestic aluminum inventories underscore robust domestic demand, with SHFE stocks at their lowest levels since March 2019.
Beijing's decarbonization initiatives have driven aluminum demand, particularly in renewable energy-related manufacturing. Notably, the rapid growth of China's new energy vehicles (NEV) sector and the critical role of aluminum in battery electric vehicles highlight its significance in this industry. The solar sector, another major aluminum consumer, continues to expand, with China leading in solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity additions. This growth in green sectors is expected to counterbalance weaknesses in traditional sectors, sustaining demand for aluminum. China's aluminum market exemplifies a unique blend of domestic resilience, increasing imports, and a strong emphasis on green industries, all contributing to the sector's dynamics in 2023.
On a technical note, MACD and RSI are still in the neutral and sell zone, but are rising up and buy signals are starting to form.
If the trend continues, the price might reach levels of 2241, in the opposite scenario the price might revert to levels of 2178.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Gold - was, is and will always be our Safe Haven!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
on Daily: Left Chart
After rejecting the 1800.0 support, Gold has been bullish especially after breaking above 1900.0.
Currently, XAUUSD is sitting around a strong resistance in green.
For the bulls to remain in control, we need a break above 1960.0.
📈 In this case, a movement till the 2000.0 round number would be expected.
on H1: Right Chart
Meanwhile, the bears can still kick in. To be confirmed if the last low in gray at 1934.0 is broken downward around.
📉 In this case, we will be expecting a correction till the 1900.0 support.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Gold - Real gold is not afraid of the melting pot 🪔Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
As per my last picture and video analysis (attached on the chart), we have been looking for buy setups around the lower bound of the channel.
This week, XAUUSD rejected the lower blue trendline and round number 1800, and traded higher.
However, it is currently approaching the upper bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone 1900.0 is a previous major low and round number.
🏹 So the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following sell setups as it is the intersection of the orange previous major low and upper blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal resistance.
As per my trading style:
As XAUUSD approaches the lower blue circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich