DOW JONES OVERVIEW: MCDONALDS IS FLAT LIKE ITS HAMBURGERS...McDonalds trades flat both on long term and short term basis.
On long term perspective price is now in lateral range after it failed 10-year uptrend, by falling below 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean @ 100 (now the range upper border). The lower border of the macro lateral range is marked by 5-year mean, standing now at 92.5 - MCD has tested and held this level during the august selloff.
On short term basis price is now trading within 1st standard deviations from 1-year and quarterly means. As it can be seen on the chart - both channels are themselves lateral at the moment.
MCD
MCD – Top End of Range, DowntrendMCD is downtrending.
Currently price is on the high end of the range, and on the daily chart (not pictured), price is pushing against the trendline.
Consumer demand for their products is decreased.
However, on the lower trendline, the last low was not quite as low as the low before that. (not a good sign for this position)
Price is likely to go down at this point.
Price targets:
88
84.70
82.14
MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me:
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
McDonald’s @ Weekly Support LevelThe price begins to stabilize at the level of the minimum area between 93.14 and 92.22. Behavior that allows price oscillators triggered buy signals in highly oversold levels are accompanied by a surge in trading volume.
In this context we decided to give an opportunity for establishing a long position to stop weekly close below 92.22. An upgrade to the daily closing intermediate resistance located at 97.58 would adjust upward the stop operation.
$MCD - monthly chart$MCD has been trading mostly sideways since the beginning of 2012.
the monthly W%R appears to be rolling over which could mean negative short-medium term pressure on the stock.
since 2008-10-01, McDonald's:
price: +108.54%
revenues (not shown): +20.8%
EBITDA: +41.03%
net income: +21.73% but at the same level it was at on 2012-01-02
free cash flow: +152.65% but at the same level it was at on 2004-01-01