Fast food restaurant stock prices can potentially declineI am cautious and afraid that fast food restaurant stocks such as McDonald, Pizza Hut, Starbucks etc. will soon see a steady decline. Looking back at history, when USA threatens tariffs on countries such as China, Canada, Mexico and Europe at large, consumers in those countries become hesitant to spend money in American fast food chain. There are too many instances back in history to refer to. Happy cautious trading to my retail friends. www.stimson.org
MCD
McDonald’s (MCD): Crisis Management and Market ReactionWhat a perfect flat this is on McDonald’s. Already back in the range and finished the wave ((ii)) at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Far more downside is expected for $MCD. If we are right about this intra wave count, we should see the level of wave ((iii)) to be at a minimum of $258.5.
The outbreak that caused the big drop was linked to slivered onions used in Quarter Pounder burgers, which affected 104 individuals across 14 states and resulted in one death. To address the crisis, McDonald’s will invest $35 million in marketing and advertising campaigns to rebuild customer trust and foot traffic. Additionally, $65 million will be directed toward franchisee support, including deferrals on rent and royalties.
To recover from this significant image damage, it will likely take much time for NYSE:MCD to resolve these challenges. Therefore, it would also be valid if NYSE:MCD sweeps the range low at the level of $245 before coming back to at least the range middle.
KO Coca-Cola and the E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’sIf you haven`t bought the dip on KO:
Now you need to know that Coca-Cola (KO) could see a decline due to the E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s, as the two brands have a longstanding partnership, with Coca-Cola products being served widely in McDonald's restaurants.
Negative publicity impacting McDonald's could indirectly affect Coca-Cola by reducing in-store traffic, which may lower beverage sales.
Additionally, Coca-Cola's association with fast food means that consumer sentiment shifting towards healthier options could further impact sales.
If the outbreak spurs changes in public dining behavior, Coca-Cola may face a temporary decline in demand across other food service venues, potentially impacting its stock performance.
Order Blocks 303Hint: McDonald's earnings report on Tuesday
From a technical perspective, McDonald's has broken the neckline, leading to short-covering and a rebound. It may either shift from an uptrend to a downtrend or enter a consolidation phase. The 303 level presents a good shorting opportunity.
MCD McDonald's Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought MCD before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MCD McDonald's Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 290usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $5.85.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
McDonald's CorporationHello,
Daily chart.
With a Fibonacci retracement, we arrive at the 0.382 zone.
The price is still above the 200-period simple moving average.
The chart shows the volume accumulation zones with the ranking.
A file to watch for me, but don't panic for now.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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McDonald's (MCD): New setback after quarter pounder incidentOne month ago, we predicted McDonald’s would push into the 127.2%-138% range at max, and now the stock is reacting precisely as we expected. Pre-market trading shows a 6% drop following the news from Tuesday.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has reported one fatality and ten hospitalizations linked to McDonald's Quarter Pounder burgers, resulting in the fast-food chain pulling the item from several menus. This incident has brought McDonald's stock back into its previous range, signaling that this wave (B) should mark the local top for now.
If we are correct, we expect to see a 5-wave structure downward from here. While there could be a brief relief pump, we anticipate the stock falling below the wave (A) level of $243. We are patiently monitoring the situation, and if a favorable short setup presents itself, we will share the entry details. For now, we are watching how the news unfolds and waiting on the sidelines.
Can a Single Onion Slice Reshape the Future of Fast Food?In a dramatic turn of events that has sent ripples through the quick-service restaurant industry, McDonald's Corporation faces a watershed moment that transcends mere food safety concerns. The recent E. coli outbreak linked to Quarter Pounder burgers, resulting in 49 reported cases across 10 states, serves as a powerful reminder of how seemingly minor supply chain decisions can cascade into significant corporate challenges. With shares plummeting 7% in after-hours trading, this crisis presents a compelling case study in crisis management, operational resilience, and the delicate balance between efficiency and safety in modern food service operations.
The revelation that slivered onions from a single supplier could potentially trigger such widespread impact challenges conventional wisdom about supply chain diversification in the fast-food industry. McDonald's swift response - removing Quarter Pounders from menus across several Western states and implementing immediate supply chain modifications - demonstrates the complex interplay between brand protection and operational agility. This situation raises profound questions about the industry's approach to supplier relationships and the potential vulnerabilities created by centralized sourcing strategies in pursuit of consistency and cost efficiency.
Beyond the immediate health concerns and financial implications, this crisis illuminates a broader narrative about consumer trust and corporate responsibility in the modern food service landscape. As McDonald's navigates this challenge, their response may well set new standards for crisis management and transparency in the industry. The incident serves as a catalyst for reimagining food safety protocols and supply chain resilience, potentially ushering in a new era where consumer safety and operational efficiency are not just balanced but fundamentally integrated into the fabric of fast-food operations.
McDonald's (MCD): Time for a Correction!We predicted it back in March, and sometimes you have to give yourself a pat on the shoulder when things play out exactly as expected. A little over six months ago, we said that Wave (A) would likely hit $245.88, and what did we get? $244, which is less than a 1% difference from our target. After that, the stock surged by 24% to what now seems like another high.
Now we find ourselves back at the range high, and we must treat it with caution. Since March, we've been hoping for this exact scenario to unfold, but we're not ready to jump into a short position on NYSE:MCD just yet! The rise has been pretty strong, and we're seeing the RSI hovering around the overbought area. Given this price level, we could either see a smaller pullback before heading higher—possibly up to the 127.2%-138% Fibonacci extension—or NYSE:MCD could fall lower after losing the mid-range level.
In both scenarios, we would like to see lower prices as we still haven't concluded Wave II. We’ve zoomed in on the chart now, but whether we’re right or wrong, we’ll zoom back out to reevaluate when the time is right.
This serves as the perfect reminder that good things take time 🚀.
McDonald's Earnings Miss For the First Time Since 2020McDonald's second-quarter earnings report fell short of analysts' expectations as higher prices contributed to a decline in foot traffic and comparable store sales. Despite efforts to boost sales with promotions like the "$5 Meal Deal," the fast food giant faced challenges in maintaining revenue and profitability.
Key Takeaways:
- Revenue and Profits: McDonald's reported $6.49 billion in total revenue for Q2, nearly identical to the same period in 2023, but fell short of the $6.63 billion projected by analysts. Net income dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, missing expectations of $2.24 billion.
- Comparable Sales Decline: Global comparable sales fell 1% from last year, with U.S. locations experiencing a drop in foot traffic due to higher prices. Sales decreases in France and China offset improvements in Japan and Latin America.
- Impact of Promotions: The recent "$5 Meal Deal" promotion provided a late-quarter boost, though its full impact will be more evident in the third quarter.
Detailed Analysis:
Revenue and Profit Performance
In the second quarter of 2024, McDonald's revenue remained flat at $6.49 billion compared to the same period in 2023. Analysts had anticipated a growth in revenue to $6.63 billion, but the reality fell short. This stagnation in revenue was accompanied by a notable decline in net income, which dropped 12% year-over-year to $2.02 billion, compared to analysts' expectations of $2.24 billion.
Comparable Sales and Foot Traffic
The global comparable sales decline of 1% highlighted the challenges McDonald's faced in maintaining customer engagement amid rising prices. In the U.S., higher menu prices led to reduced foot traffic, contributing to a 0.7% decline in same-store sales. Internationally, sales fell by 1.1%, driven by weaknesses in markets like France and China, which overshadowed gains in Japan and Latin America.
Promotional Efforts and Market Response
In response to the declining sales, McDonald's launched the "$5 Meal Deal" promotion in an effort to attract price-sensitive customers. While this promotion only impacted the final days of the second quarter, it is expected to have a more significant effect on third-quarter earnings. Early reports suggest that the promotion has been successful, potentially continuing into August to sustain momentum.
McDonald's CEO Chris Kempczinski emphasized the company's commitment to delivering "reliable, everyday value" and accelerating growth drivers such as chicken and loyalty programs. Despite these efforts, the broader economic environment and consumer price sensitivity have posed substantial challenges.
Market Reaction
Shares of McDonald's have experienced a 15% decline in value so far this year. However, the stock showed a slight recovery, up 3.77% in Monday's trading session following the earnings announcement. This reflects a cautious optimism among investors that the company's strategic initiatives may eventually pay off. The stock has a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 57.83, indicating potential for further growth. Adding to the potential growth is the bullish flag pattern depicted on the chart.
Conclusion
McDonald's second-quarter performance underscores the difficulties faced by the fast food industry amid rising prices and shifting consumer behaviors. While the "$5 Meal Deal" and other strategic initiatives show promise, the company must navigate a complex landscape to regain growth and profitability.
MCD 1H Swing / Investment Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade
+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry
Calculated affordable stop limit
Take profit:
1/3 1 to 2 R/R
1/3 daily T1 level
1/3 monthly 1/2
Daily trend
"+ long impulse
+ expanding T2
+ volumed 2Sp-
+ weak test
+ first bullish bar closed entry"
Monthly trens
"+ long impulse
+ volumed T2 level
+ support level
+ 1/2 correction
+ biggest volume Sp
+ weak test"
MCD @NYSE
Sell Limit 261.99, GTC
Sell Stop 250.94 LMT 253.18, GTC
Sell Limit 257.63, GTC
OCO 2A: Sell Shares of MCD Limit at $271.49 (Good 'til Canceled)
OCO 2B: Sell Shares of MCD Stop at $250.94 Limit at $251.94 (Good 'til Canceled)
SBUX gets another earnings miss SHORTSBUX on the dialy chart may be another candidate to short while the general market remains
challenging in the face of the loss of anticipated rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risk.
SBUX has been trending down for nearly six months and the earnings miss add emphaisis to the
trend. At this juncture, there is nothing to suggest a turnaround. I am adding SBUX to
my short list. I will look for pivot highs on a lower time frame and average into an overall
position in pieces.
McDonald’s Misses Profit Estimates Amidst Middle East Conflict:McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: NYSE:MCD ) falls short of quarterly profit estimates for the first time in two years. Amidst a backdrop of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and evolving consumer preferences, the iconic fast-food chain faces challenges in maintaining its market dominance. This article delves into the factors behind McDonald's recent performance and the broader implications for its global operations.
Growing Consumer Landscape:
In an era where consumers are becoming increasingly budget-conscious, McDonald's, known for its affordability, is witnessing a shift in consumer behavior. CEO Chris Kempczinski acknowledged that consumers are becoming more discerning with their spending, signaling a departure from traditional consumption patterns. This shift underscores the need for McDonald's to reassess its pricing strategy and value proposition in the face of changing market dynamics.
Impact of Middle East Conflict:
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has cast a shadow over McDonald's international sales, particularly in regions where geopolitical tensions are high. With CFO Ian Borden's warning of a sequential decline in international sales, the company faces headwinds in key markets such as China, where economic sluggishness compounds the challenges posed by geopolitical unrest. Western brands like McDonald's find themselves embroiled in controversy, facing protests and boycott campaigns over perceived political affiliations, further exacerbating the situation.
Franchise Disputes and Public Relations Challenges:
McDonald's recent controversies, including backlash from franchises in Muslim-majority countries and legal disputes in Malaysia, highlight the complexities of operating a global brand in a politically charged environment. The company's acquisition of its Israeli franchise and legal actions against boycott movements underscore its efforts to manage reputational risks and safeguard its business interests. However, navigating geopolitical sensitivities while maintaining a consistent brand image remains a delicate balancing act for McDonald's.
Looking Ahead:
As McDonald's grapples with the fallout from missed profit estimates and geopolitical tensions, the road ahead remains uncertain. The company must adapt to evolving consumer preferences, mitigate geopolitical risks, and navigate public relations challenges to regain its footing in the global market. Strategic adjustments in pricing, marketing, and corporate governance will be crucial as McDonald's seeks to restore investor confidence and sustain long-term growth.
Technical Outlook
Despite the miss in profit estimates, McDonald's stock ( NYSE:MCD ) is up 1.02% trading with a moderate Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 53.12.
MCDONALDS $MCD | MCDONALDS RANGE BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 15, 2024MCDONALDS NYSE:MCD | MCDONALDS RANGE BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 15, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $270.00 - $276.50
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $266.00 - $270.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $259.00 - $266.00
Weekly: Bearish
Daily: Bearish
4H: Bearish
I wanted to create a post for the initial bullish trend breakdown and the first range, but decided to wait until we got closer to the earnings release. The earnings report for NYSE:MCD is on Apr 30th and I am looking to take advantage of volatile price movement, either up or down. Bulls should seek a breakout above level 270.00 and bears should seek a breakdown below level 266.00. Previous trends, structure, momentum, and ranges are all labeled.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
EDUCATIONAL/ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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MCD is topped out the long fast food trend may be SHORTMCD lives on people liking what they eat and eating a lot of it. The Happy Meal is famous.
into the business model comes the new wave biologics for obesity and diabetes. the shots
that cut down the weight and the food addiction. Insurance companies are jumping on
the bandwagon. 1/3 of the people eat half the food. Increasingly, those people are seeking
treatment. The fastfood executives know this. Same for the sugar beverages.
Anyway, enough said. MC on the monthly chart is stuck at a double top even more obvious
on a weekly or daily chart. At present it is stuck in a symmetrical triangle compressing price.
The mathematical predictive algorithm forecasts price will move down the remainder of
this year. I respect the mathematics and understand the medical trend. LLY makes money
supplying insulin and now it makes money actually reversing diabetes and obesity. One way
or another it makes money and MCD is supplying the patient flow. In the meanwhile if
those patients are detoxified and lower their caloric intake, MCD is the one that suffers
a regression of the growth story. I am short MCD and add to my position whenever
there is a little upward price movement. Yeah, comarketing donuts with Krispy is an act of
desperation.
CMG to split price SHORTCMG has announced a split. Makes sense to make shares more affordable but fractionals are
widely available. CMG may be fundamentally challenged by the underpinnings of the fast food
markets. that is overeating and rising prices. In the meanwhile the anti-obesity and anti-
diabetes trends are pushing hard led by the bological injectable meds from LLY, NVO and
others. One third of the people eat one half of the food and now an effective treatment
for that addiction is becoming increasingly available. The writing is on the wall and food biz
executives can read that writing. Enough said.
I am going short on CMG. It's best days of growth may behind it. The company announced plans
for 4000 more stores nationwide. Really? Time will tell. I vote with my wallet. My position
will not be small. The predictive algo has its forecast. My education included both medicine
and engineering. I understand the power of biology and mathematics. I deeply respect
both.