MC
Candlestick Analyzes - Part OneThe Weakest Candle
A Spinning Top/Bottom (a candle with the same sized upper and lower shadow) is the weakest and the most important candle for us. Note that the body size of the candle is not important. We analyze it like this:
1. if it appears in the middle of a trend, we expect the trend to continue, as a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. otherwise, most likely we will get into range or reversal.
2. If it appears at a key level, until observing the next candle, we cannot analyze what could happen. If there is at least a medium-sized candle in whatever direction, we expect the price to continue in that direction, otherwise, it's a range!
Let's look at the chart:
- Candle #1 is in the middle of a trend, but after it, we see a bearish candle. So, it's a range or reversal.
- After seeing candle #1, we draw the box for the MC candle. So, candle #2 is shaped at the support of it. We have to wait to see what will come after it. Because the next candle is a bearish one, we expect the bearish movement to continue, and it continues.
- Candle #3 shaped after a strong breakout. If trends tend to continue, we expect at least a medium-sized candle in the direction of the trend. Otherwise, it'll be a range or reversal coming.
Be Careful!Daily Chart: Although there might be a Strong BoS, if the daily candle closed at $101,471 there might be a sharp retracement one or two days later. Then, there will be a ranging market.
Strong Bullish ➡️ Target: $108,879
Strong Bearish ➡️ Target 1: $98,985.51 ; Target 2: $94,040 ; Target 3: $89,094.49
Analyze at the target.
In the worst-case scenario, do nothing!As mentioned previously, when EMAs are close to each other, they become ineffective. This proximity warns that radical behaviour may be imminent, especially when the price is between them.
When Bollinger Bands converge, a breakout is close to happening. The direction is unclear.
This represents the absolute worst-case scenario a trader can encounter: do nothing!
MAJOR, What to Expect!Watch 4H:
- No BoS, No minor trend!
Strong Bearish ➡️ Target: $0.64
Strong Bullish ➡️ Target 1: $2.99, Target 2: $4.56
Analyze at target.
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 3Question: I'm having a problem with finding the MC candle. What should I do?
Answer:
There are 3 distinct signs for us to know for a fact that we are in a ranging market which has been started from shaping an MC candle:
1. Inability for the price to make a new stBoS (seeing wBoS or no BoS at all).
2. For the second time, seeing a cycle of Pump&Dump happening.
3. Price cross and close both EMAs in the opposite direction of the previous minor trend.
Whenever we observe any of these three signs, it indicates that we are already in a ranging market. We should look to the left to identify our MC candle, which is usually the very first Pump & Dump that occurred recently.
For Ethereum to continue its uptrend, the Pump & Dump cycle must end. The price should not drop again in the ranging area.
Finding Ranging Market Before Happening! Part 2This is how we see the market. Only in three places can we see a minor trend. All in between is just price consolidation because it is a ranging market. And we expect it to happen after spotting candle "X"! For more information, please refer to Part One .
When we spot a Master Candle (MC), We expect erratic behaviour from the price. Look at the white arrows to grasp what I mean by this. This is normal for us in ARZ Trading System analyses!
In fact, in a ranging market, we are looking for the price to behave like this to combine it with BB and hunt the best reversal trading positions.
If the price managed to stay above LTP & EMAs, we expect this pump and dump cycle to continue in the range area.
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part TwoIn this section, we will combine minor structure and momentum, along with MC and Bollinger Bands.
We observed an uptrend, and then suddenly Candle "A" appeared. This indicates that the previous candle is a strong candidate for becoming an MC for us. Now, we need to analyze the market for signs that it may be transitioning into a ranging market.
As we see:
- Price movement from #1 to #2, is the same as #2 to #3. No momentum in a specific direction which is a clear sign of a ranging market. It confirmed MC for us.
- The movement from #3 to #4 has just reversed the previous bearish candle. Nothing much. Again we are inside a ranging market.
- Movement from #4 to #5 is equal to #5 to #6. Again it's ranging! Awesome!
- Candle #7 is good for ranging, and we expect such sharp movements in a ranging market. But we do not expect a continuation of strong downward movement after it. If such a thing happens and could break both the low of candle #7 and the LTP level, we expect the price to continue a downtrend and create a stBoS downward in the future.
Minor Structure + Momentum: Part OneWhen analyzing momentum, the most important question to consider is: Where should I focus my analysis of momentum?
Many traders often find themselves confused by the concept of "momentum" as they try to derive meaning from every single candlestick movement.
The straightforward answer is: Analyze momentum when the price is at key levels or is getting close to them! In particular, for minor structures (trends), you should pay close attention to momentum near the 13 and 20 EMAs, as we do in ARZ Trading System.
Keynotes: a minor trend is still valid, if these two key points are continuously happening:
1. We always expect a loss of momentum for price when approaching the key levels, and gaining momentum when it's moving away from them, in the direction of the trend.
2. A very important sign of gaining momentum is crossing and closing the whole previous candle(s).
Let's analyze this chart:
- It is obvious that candles #1 to #3 are showing a loss of momentum, but they are far from key levels and it just might mean a retracement, which happened. But again it might not retrace at all!
- from #3 to #4, we see price is gaining momentum, which is not good! so both key levels could easily break, which happened. But again in #5 and #6, we see the price losing momentum in the opposite direction of the previous downtrend, and gaining it in the direction of the minor downtrend. so everything is good.
- Again #7 confirms the momentum in the direction of minor downtrend.
- In retracement up until #8, the price is gaining momentum upward, which is not good. But candles #9 through #10 again are in our favour.
- the correction to #11 is not looking good for a downtrend, and in the next candles, to #13 we are not convinced that sellers are stronger. So, we are cautious here. And the price finally gains momentum upward and we reach #14.
- From #15 to #16, momentum is the same for both buyers and sellers. It is a tight range and can do nothing until we see a clear sign of gaining momentum (or losing) in one direction. And the sign came in the shape of candle #17. If this tight range were to continue, it should have been a bullish strong candle.
EMA, The correct way of usage - Part 4 - minor structure_2To confirm a minor trend, we need to see a Strong Break of Structure (BoS) with the body of a candle, in the direction of the trend. This means in the ARZ Trading System, shadows do not count as breakouts for confirming a trend continuation.
let's elaborate on the concept:
- after receiving pullback from 13&20EMA in A, the previous low has been broken strongly and made a stBoS. This confirms we are in a minor downtrend. So, from now on we are looking to go short any chance we get.
- in B & C we are looking for a reason to sell. but weak BoS after will make us cautious and at #1 we are analyzing and not trading until the direction of the minor trend gets clear.
- the strong bullish candle after #1 tells us we are indeed in a ranging market! Not an uptrend. Please note that: the minor uptrend should be confirmed.
- in D we see buyers are weak, and at #2 it confirms that a minor uptrend is not going to happen. Now wait for a confirmation of a minor downtrend.
- stBoS after E confirms we are in a minor downtrend, so we look for opportunities to sell after F, G, H, & I.
- at #3 we are officially in a range again. So, we trade as a ranging market, until J tells us we have to trade downward.
- a wBoS after K warns us, and we see the price reversed upward. Weak continuation downward at #4 & #5 confirms it.
- the stBoS upward after #5 tells us we are in an uptrend, but a weak pullback up until 6 tells us the uptrend might be done.
- Then, there is a stBoS downward after L. So, until it breaks upward and has a strong BoS in that direction, the price could continue declining.
Keynote: Short-term traders must always trade in the direction of the minor trend. Unless they are to trade in a ranging market or are medium or long-term traders.
Question: do we have to just use periods 13 & 20 for analyzing short-term trends?
Answer: Absolutely not! It's the trader's choice only.
Importance of 50%, in MCAs we analyzed before ( read here ), the price movement on Cardano has been completed. It is trending upward now.
The main entry point for the ARZ Trading System is when we have a pullback from more than one S&R level on the border of drawn MC boxes (#1). Either MC, LTP or UTP.
Here we see sometimes this alignment will happen on 50% of the boxes, which is acceptable when it is in the direction of the major and minor trend (#2 & #3).
Watch 4H:
- Strong Bullish: Target 1: $0.9414, Target 2: $0.9890
- Strong Bearish: Target: $0.8459
Keynote: until the minor trend is not violated , the next target points are based on the base MC box size.
BB, the correct way of usage - Part OneLike EMA, Bollinger Bands are famous indicators that can be used to analyze the market. We discussed the current usage of EMA in parts One , Two , and Three , and we will continue to do so. Now, let's talk about BB.
In ARZ Trading System, we have a specific rule for this indicator, to find the best spot to enter the market.
- BB settings: 20 period, 2 deviation.
BB meaning:
1. When its bands are converging, we are close to a breakout. We have to consider MC boxes and EMAs to analyze what direction it might break out.
2. When diverging, we are in a breakout. If price movement continues and still we see the bands diverging, we are still in breakout mode.
3. When bands are flat, we are in a ranging market.
In our system, the best place for entering into a reversal position is when at the same time, the price has touched MC ( what is MC? ) and BB levels, just as follows:
- The MC candle is shown. we expect the market to retrace after reaching the UTP level.
- After breaking the UTP level in candle #1, the price couldn't cross and close and retraced in #2 inside the UTP area. So, MC is still valid.
- From #2 to #3 we have no reason to trade upward.
- In #3 the price has touched both LTP level and BB. So, we look for a buy position.
- in #4 we analyze the market as a seller. Because the price has touched both the support of MC and BB.
- in #5 again we see a similar situation as #3, so we are buyers.
- in #6, the price couldn't cross and close after the breakout candle, so MC is still valid.
XUSDT (X Empire) is rangingIn 1H, if current candle closes as a weak candle (eg. bearish/bullish Pinbar), we expect the continuation of the downward movement. Target would be $0.0001539.
Otherwise, if after this candle, we see a strong bullish candle; then upward movement will continue and the next target would be $0.0002199.
After reaching on of these two levels, we have to analyze again.
MC/BTC - Merit Circle: Trend_Reversal◳◱ An intriguing development has unfolded on the EURONEXT:MC / CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart as we've identified a compelling Trend Reversal. This shift in price dynamics indicates a noteworthy potential trend change. It's crucial for us to pay attention to the next resistance levels located at 0.00001668 | 0.00001839 | 0.00002246 and the significant support levels found at 0.00001261 | 0.00001025 | 0.00000618. Taking these factors into consideration, it may be prudent to contemplate entering a buy position at the current price of 0.00001478, allowing us to take advantage of the projected trend continuation.
Let's keep a watchful eye on this exciting opportunity and stay proactive in our trading strategies.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Merit Circle
▣ Rank: 142
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Hitbtc
▣ Category/Sector: Financial - Gaming
▣ Overview: Merit Circle is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) focused on increasing accessibility and participation in the play-to-earn gaming industry by providing educational opportunities and 'scholarships' (in-game assets on loan) to people from around the world. In addition to profit-sharing with 'scholars', Merit Circle grows its treasury by holding various assets (i.e., game-related NFTs) and early-stage financial investments in Play-to-Earn games. Merit Circle's token ( EURONEXT:MC ) is used to govern the Merit Circle DAO and serve as an index for the Play-to-Earn industry.
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.00001478 ₿
▣ 24HVol: 20.964 ₿
▣ 24H Chng: 0.0%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 39.46%
▣ 1-Month Chng: 44.59%
▣ 3-Months Chng: 152.39%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.00001668 | 0.00001839 | 0.00002246
◢ Support: 0.00001261 | 0.00001025 | 0.00000618
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_BUY
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : BUY
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 2.94
▣ Last 90D: 3.07
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.25
▣ Last 3-Y: -0.05
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 1.13
▣ Last 90D: 1.47
▣ Last 1-Y: 1.09
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.50
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A
▣ Reddit sentiment score is 0.72 - Bullish
▣ In-depth MCBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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MC/USDT bullish ride? 👀 🚀 MC Today analysis💎Paradisers, direct your attention to MCUSDT, which is currently exhibiting intriguing market behavior with a heightened likelihood of embarking on a bullish trajectory.
💎Historically, MeritCircle managed to breach a descending trendline, subsequently establishing an upward momentum. Presently, it's navigating within a demand zone. Should it surpass the supply threshold at .3870, there's a substantial probability it might approach the anticipated resistance zone.
💎However, if the asset struggles to overcome this supply zone, the bullish momentum might find its genesis at the .3347 demand level. It's noteworthy that, despite a contingent of traders potentially shorting this asset, our analysis leans towards a more optimistic, upward trend.
💎On the flip side, should the asset's price descend below the demand level, there's an increased likelihood of a downward trajectory, potentially extending to a critical support level. As always, prudent decision-making and comprehensive market analysis are paramount
Merit Circle MCUSDT Price Analysis (1d)BINANCE:MCUSDT is staying true to our earlier predictions. The current price action has given rise to an inverted head and shoulders pattern, signaling a potential upward move if it breaks out above the neckline at $0.39.
Here are the key points:
Pattern Recognition: The formation of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
Implications: This pattern typically suggests an impending upward price movement.
Targets: In the event of a successful breakout, keep an eye on the following target levels: $0.45 - $0.59 - $0.74 - $0.98.
Risk Management: It's advisable to set a stop loss, preferably below the breakout level of the shoulder support, which stands at $0.26.
This analysis aims to provide a clear picture of BINANCE:MCUSDT 's current situation and potential future movements. Keep a close watch on the breakout at $0.39 for confirmation of the bullish trend.
Happy trading!
LVMH (MC) -> Buy The Stock Right Herey name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitaliz e on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on LVMH.
For the past 7 years LVMH stock has been trading in a decent rising channel and just recently retested and rejected the upper resistance trendline at the psychological 900€ level.
Also considering that this is a simple break and retest of the previous all time high from January I am just waiting for bullish confirmation before I think that another push higher will occur.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Merit Circle (MC) formed bullish AB=CD for upto 22.50% pumpHi dear friends, hope you are well and welcome to the new update on Merit Circle (MC) token with US Dollar pair.
Recently we caught almost33% pump of MC as below:
Now on a 4-hr time frame, MC has formed AB=CD move for the next price reversal.
Note: Above idea is for educational purpose only. It is advised to diversify and strictly follow the stop loss, and don't get stuck with trade.
Finally mc Coin Breaking Out seems like getting ready for another bullish impulse
formed descending channel in 2 days timeframe and breaking out incase of successful breakout expecting solid recovery in midterm
expecting 200 to 220% bullish wave incase of successful breakout