BTCUSDT's Epic Showdown: Weekly EMA Battle for SupremacyHello Traders! :)
In this week's analysis, we witnessed an intriguing battle at the weekly EMA level for BTC. Unfortunately, this level held firm, and we are currently seeing accumulation around the lower boundary of the weekly Market Profile. At this level, we can observe the development of the weekly Market Profile's point of control, signifying a significant equilibrium point. My plan for this week is to make another attempt to break above the weekly EMA level.
Currently, a LONG signal has been generated on the Multi-timeframe MACD, indicating a green light for seeking long positions at this juncture. I will initiate the trade after the LONG signal is confirmed by a Heikin Ashi candle.
My initial take profit target is set upon reaching the level of the weekly EMA line, with potential for holding the position longer depending on price behavior.
I will exit the trade if the price falls below the weekly Market Profile, canceling out potential further losses. Additionally, I will consider exiting the trade if the weekly EMA level is rejected, securing any generated profits. If the price successfully breaches the EMA level and holds, I will consider continuing the trade.
Good luck with your trades!
Marketprofile
KAVAUSDT is testing important levels, potential +10% from here
Hello Traders:)
Currently, the level of the top line of the Market profile from Monday is being tested. Previously, after breaking this level, KAVAUSDT exploded over 30% up. Currently, after returning and positively testing this level, I assume a return to at least the upper limits of the market profile from the previous days, which will give us at least 10% increase in KAVAUSDT. Negation of the scenario after breaking through today's lower limit of the market profile.
I wish you great trades!
DAX Monday SHORT setup. 200 points range. Market Profile/ VWAP
Hello Traders:)
I expect a morning rebound after the market opens to the red line levels. Hence, I will look for an opening of shorts with targets marked with green lines. The first level of short is the upper limit of the market profile for both Thursday and Friday. This level has been tested many times. The second level of potential short play is the upper limit of the weekly VWAP, which was tested on Thursday with a dynamic decline. Take profit first is the middle level of Thursday's Market Profile, while my second target is the bottom level of Thursday's Market Profile. I am planning to enter a small position at level 1, with a stop loss above the 2nd target. The rest of the items I include only after testing the second level. Depending on the situation, I can exit 50% after reaching target 1, or hold 100% of the position until target 2. The planned range of a potential trade - 200 points.
I wish you all a great trading week!
Showcase of the Power of Market Profile AnalysisMarket Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors alike to analyze price movements in financial markets. The method is based on the concept that price moves in a predictable way, forming patterns that can be observed and analyzed.
The Market Profile chart is a visual representation (not shown here) of market activity, displaying the distribution of price over time. The chart is divided into horizontal sections, each representing a price level. The length of the bar indicates the duration of time during which trades occurred at that price level.
The Market Profile chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as areas of high and low volume. The three key components of the Market Profile chart are the Point of Control (POC), the Value Area, and the Single Prints.
The Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest volume of trades occurred during the period under analysis. It represents the most actively traded price level during that time frame, and is often seen as a key support or resistance level.
The Value Area is the range of price levels that contain a specified percentage of the total trading volume during the period under analysis. The Value Area can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities.
Single Prints are price levels where trading activity occurred but did not overlap with any other price levels during the period under analysis. These are areas where price discovery occurred, and can be used to identify areas of potential price support or resistance.
By analyzing the Market Profile chart, traders can gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. The chart can be used to identify areas of price support and resistance, as well as potential trading opportunities based on the volume and duration of trading activity at specific price levels.
Between end of Dec 2022 and end of Jan 2023, the price of the S&P 500 index (SPX) showed major reactions to the price levels drawn by using Market Profile analysis that was done in Oct 2022 . This is a prime example of the power of this trading method. By identifying key levels of support and resistance, traders were able to make more informed trading decisions and take advantage of market opportunities.
In conclusion, Market Profile analysis is a powerful tool for traders and investors who want to gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics and make more informed trading decisions. By analyzing the distribution of price and volume over time, traders can identify key levels of support and resistance, and take advantage of market opportunities. The example of the S&P 500 index (SPX) in October of last year showcases the power of this trading method, and demonstrates how it can be used to make profitable trades in a dynamic and ever-changing market.
Trade Plan 12/22/2022
P-Shape Formation = Short Covering + Strong Buyers
*Possible end to a downtrend if we can confirm the market structure change.
TP1> If we manage to Trade/Bid above MAIN POC 3905, I want to see a break above previous POC 3914 (BEARS LIS) to support the upside trade. After than we can go for 3934 > 3960 > 3980 3995.
TP2> If we manage to Trade below MAIN POC 3905, the downside is 3886 > 3874, where maybe we can have a BULL Fight, if lost we can ride back to 3858 > 3850 Naked POC.
*All trades must be taken after IB (Initial Balance) 9:45am-10:00am
#tradesafe #sizekills
How to trade using Value Areas and POC?A few key concepts when using Market Profile in your trading:
1) Point of Control (POC) acts as price magnets, as they represent the price level where most time was spent during a trading day. Price tends to gravitate towards them.
2) Naked (Not visited) POC acts as stronger magnets than visited POCs.
3) When price enters / breaks into a Value Area, which represents a range of "fair value", price tends to visit the other end of the Value Area. For example above, the price breaks up from the Value Area Low before end of day yesterday, hit the Value Area High this morning.
You definitely won't find these key levels and ranges with traditional support and resistance lines drawing methods. Using Market Profile will give you the edge to become a better trader.
See my previous 2 posts:
SPX hitting huge excess area, which way will it go next?As you can see, the price is sitting in a large excess range, trying to push higher with the bullish momentum since the opening. Looks like it is feeling lots of selling pressure. But if we can break up and into the higher naked value area, there is great opportunity for a bull run to the value area high. Otherwise, we might go back to the value area from yesterday's price action. What's your take?? Will we go up or down?
Where are we going next for SPX?Looks like we just broke into a naked value area from last week. There is a single print area just on top of this area that has been acting as support/resistance level. If we can break that after breaking the upside of our current value area, we could be heading up. Otherwise, we are going back down.
17-21/10/2022 Weekly OutlookHKEX:HSI1!
Happy trading!
#marketprofile #volumeprofile #orderflow #chartanalysis #chartporn
*****
I use this platform as a way to organize my thoughts and plan for my personal trading for the sessions to come. Do not misconstrue this newsletter as actionable trading advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts as a market operator through this newsletter, which helps me get my head straight and hold myself accountable for the next day. It is very possible that I am flat wrong in all of my scenarios.
Here what i think about TSLANASDAQ:TSLA is paying within 260 - 315 range area.. which is not so wide range for TSLA. i really don't a serious selling in TSLA. CME_MINI:ES1! is near the low of this year (2022) , which 3650s area (June low). if ES run out supply, and i think it should, TSLA will bail out all of seller at 315 area, poor structure. let's watch this moves..
A Dive Into My Swing Trading Approach (+setup) This video was a short synthesis of my swing trading approach. For the amount of information I presented, I'm not expecting to successfully being able to convey my means and ways in one short video, but I'm glad if I could at least show a different perspective.
Some important things I forgot to mention:
- The tolerance for identifying a visual weak liquidity pattern is 2 ticks, 3 ticks during highly volatile days (for the ES). This can change from one market to another. Anything more than 2/3 ticks is considered a move of conviction supported by strong liquidity, a market that has the confidence to see what's beyond a certain point to then either sharply reverse or move forward.
- Using this method I CANNOT know what the market makers are exactly doing, there is no way to know, they will always be a step ahead of any brilliant retail trader. However, we can understand their logic and the weak traders' logic, the latter is the type we want to trade against.
SETUP
As I said, I favour a short trade, but as of today I have to remain on the sidelines. During this times is important to be flexible and change ones bias if that's what the market is suggesting. I will post my set up (if any) in due course.
NIFTYImportant Levels for 04/08/2022.
2 beautiful trades for today, we captured the fall and then the longs, overall a wonderful day.
17500 and 17250 will be levels to watch out tomorrow, any break on either side can give good momentum.
Tomorrow, if we see a flat open, I personally wont recommend shorts immediately as there was a strong buying volume in 17335-17360 zone and a massive cluster above 17388, so these levels will definitely act as support. So longs can be taken above 17440 for 17500 as targets with SL of 17410.
In case of a gap up, will wait and watch for price reaction at 17500 levels before initiating any trades.
In case of a gap down, will look to buy at marked support areas with 20 point SL for targets of 17440 and 17500.
BANK NIFTYImportant levels for 04/08/2022.
Yesterday's analysis for today worked out perfectly and we got 2 good trades as per our levels.
For tomorrow's expiry 38400 and 37750 are the reference levels to watch out. The range from 37740-37810 has been acting as a good support zone and has been tested multiple times in the last few sessions. Similarly on the upside 38400 is VPOC from 4th April and should act as a resistance.
So, if we see a flat open, we shall wait for the price to sustain above 38200 and then take longs for targets of 38400. SL for this can be placed at 38150. Also 38174 will be an important reference point and any selling volume seen here can be used as an entry for shorts with SL of 38250 for targets of 38060,38000 and 37960.
In case of gap down, 37970 levels will be crucial, once we see buying vols longs can be taken for targets of 38060, 38100 and 38175. SL can be placed around 37900.
The buying volumes in the late hour today does make shorting a bit of a risky affair.
#ES Futures Review for the week 06.05.22Last Tuesday I was doing a review and saw that Friday the 27th we broke into a balance where we still had plenty of supply over 4143.75 and our position is below 4084.50 which told me that we will most likely spend some time around here to consolidate before we can confirm direction for the next move, Tuesdays close confirmed that more and I gave myself a range we could possibly stay within which was 4170-4060 so we can clean things up and get ready for the next move, especially with it being the beginning of a new month I was looking for the range to tighten up which we started to do, we made an attempt to get out of 4170 Thursday but that move was sold and we went back towards the smaller position that was between 4100-4077, failure to reach 4077 for now and filling orders below it is a sign of strength for my MGI, it tells me that so far its just inventory moving and not LTF sellers. It takes time after large moves to clean things up, take care of business and confirm next move. We don't really have any market moving events until Thursday/Friday so I will be cautious in the beginning of the week because we are still closing within range and this is where it can tighten more or attempt stop runs before it chooses direction. This week I want to see if we attempt a break down under 4084-77 and come back in without reaching the next Key Support around 4030-25 to trade it from 4084 back up to 4137-43 and possible move higher to 4220-4214+ area or failure to take out 4084-77 and get back over 4143 to make a run at 4220-4214+. This week the only shorting locations I am interested in is if we get back to 4143-37 area without extending from it or if we lose 4046-42 and clear break and continuation on 4030-25.