The bigger picture for weed This is a 1-month chart, which enables us to see the very long-term trend.
Honestly nothing is really happening yet, we maintain a consolidation for almost a year, after a long-term heavy decline.
Fundamentally, nothing has shifted yet, but it looks like there is some interest with Biden getting nominated.
Stocks are undervalued; that doesn't mean they can become even more undervalued.
I am watching them, but don't feel the time is right yet. If you don't want to miss out, buy a 25% of what you would normally. I am keeping them on a watchlist.
Marijuana
$HITIF High Tide Fundamental AnalysisI'd like to start by saying this is a very speculative play on the cannabis space. High Tide (HITIF) manufactures and sells cannabis accessories. That being the fundamentals along with the chart setup give me confidence that the risk is well worth the potential reward.
Let's jump into the numbers. Last quarter HITIF posted just under $17 million (USD) in sales, a 172% increase over the same quarter a year ago and over a 1000% increase over the same quarter 2 years ago. 2 quarters ago they posted their first positive EBITDA quarter at $1.4 million USD. Last quarter they posted their first profitable quarter at $3.1 million USD. Last quarter was their 8th straight quarter of sales growth. This gives me confidence that they can continue to grow into the future. Considering the valuations of other companies in the cannabis space I cannot comprehend how this stock is under a $60 million valuation. To put that in perspective if HITIF stock were to go up 10,000% it would have just over half the market cap of Canopy Growth (CGC). CGC last quarter had $101.5 million in sales with 75% YoY growth. That's 6x the sales of HITIF but 175x the market cap. If you do the math that comes out to about a 29x premium for CGC which seems like insanity to me even if you factor in their partnership with Constellation Brands (STZ). Now, I am fully aware that this is not exactly an apples to apples comparison considering CGC is a cannabis producer and distributor while HITIF sells accessories, but to me this is an incredible opportunity to make smart investment in a little known company.
$GLCO Breaks Out on Addition to ST and Co. Updates This Week$GLCO A Bitcoin and Marijuana play which ran from .0004 to .013 Last time on Updates in the Summer recently broke major resistance levels after getting added to Stocktwits last night setting it up for a multiday run into upcoming updates this month. The stock which is in two very big sectors could be seeing gains as high as .50 PPS if all goes according to plan.
$RNWF Breaks Out On Release of Filing Preparing it for Pink C$RNWF Possible break past .015 Sending it .05 in the next two weeks following the company dropping the needed filing to OTCM preparing it for Pink Current as the rumors state the CEO is ready to start dropping updates and news once Pink Current is accomplished. The company recently became an official holding company which holds 92% of $HPST trading at .30 currently.
$RSSV Breaks Resistance and Prepares for Massive Run past $1$RSSV Key resistance level broke today setting it up for the run into the two acquisition filings drop that should be coming before EOY. In the meantime I believe we will see a tremendous rise in the PPS of the stock leading up into it on any update from the CEO.
$APHA at resistance $APHA (CAD) has had a great run this month. It is currently at resistance and probability of a retracement is high. I am unloading half my position here and holding another half for a much longer term outlook. Price target is $14 then at the highs in the $20s. Short term support is around $8 and the 20 MA below that. The way I am going to play this selling a $10 cover call with my remaining positions, then sell a put at $8 hoping to get the shares cheaper.
$TLRY - NR Picks Nov 22Tilray Inc (TLRY) es una compañía que se dedica al cultivo y distribución de cannabis medicinal, altamente beneficiada con la victoria de Joe Biden, lo que generó un upside en el precio de sus acciones de 110%, sin embargo, las marihuaneras después de una esperada corrección podrían presentar oportunidades interesantes, nosotros pudimos reconocer un canal entre los US$ 8.25 y US$6.90 donde podríamos percibir un retorno de aproximadamente 14% en las próximas semanas debido a que consideramos que el rally puede reactivarse, finalmente establecimos un stop loss prudente de 5% en caso el soporte se venza y la caída continúe.
Aphria (APHA) possible long set upAs much as I dislike everything about this company, if inverse H&S holds and we close above $6.40 and 6.40 become our new support - bullish. But honestly, it is a true definition of a $h!t company. Trading it only because I need a revenge.
$RSSV 10Q A/H’s Confirming both Acquisitions closing by EOYFirst Acquisition: $50 Mil Yearly + 2nd Acquisition $25 Mil Yearly with 25 Patents
Transition of things to come:
Filings>PRs>Name Change>Acquisition Filings
PT $2+ IMO in the Summer it did .03-.60 with the same S/S
www.otcmarkets.com
PLNHF - Planet 13 preparing for the take offWhen OTC:PLNHF breaks out - $6 is next stop. Dont cry that you didn't get in soon enough.
$SNDL Major Earnings Beat TBH IMO PT $1.50+Sundial Growers , Inc. engages in the production and distribution of flower, pre-rolls and vapes. It operates through the following segments: Cannabis, Ornamental Flowers, and Corporate.
Aug 13 (Reuters): NET CANNABIS REVENUE FOR Q2 OF 2020 WAS $20.2 MILLION, AN INCREASE OF 44% OVER Q1 OF 2020
6/29/2020 BMO Capital Markets Upgrade Underperform ➝ Market Perform target price $1.00
If we divide the equity value or total value which is the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CA$282m by the number of shares outstanding relative to the current share price we get a valuation
of .75 which in my opinion is still highly undervalued.
The company's goal is to provide customers with the best quality cannabis with the help of experts in the growing field.
The company’s partners include the University of Saskatchewan, University of Calgary, Inplanta Biotechnology, PlantBiosis, Town of Olds and Olds College.
Sundial Growers operates several different brands that it sells its cannabis products through.
That includes Sundial, Top Leaf, BC Weed Co., Palmetto, and Grasslands.
"CALGARY, AB, Nov. 9, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - Sundial Growers Inc. ("Sundial" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce that it has entered into a sales and distribution agreement (the "Agreement") with local company Choklat Inc. ("Choklat"), a Health Canada licensed chocolatier company focused on offering decadent confections with high-quality flavour. The new collaboration between the two Alberta-based companies provides Sundial the opportunity to continue to expand its product portfolio and enter the edible market."
"CALGARY, AB, Oct. 20, 2020 /PRNewswire/ - Sundial Growers Inc. (NASDAQ: SNDL) ("Sundial" or the "Company"), is pleased to announce the expansion of its Palmetto brand presence across Canada.cConsistent with Sundial's focus on premium inhalables, the Palmetto brand offers a diverse product portfolio to accommodate consumers looking for an experience that offers convenient, high-quality products alongside unique branding. Palmetto's dried flower format recently launched in Quebec and was sold out within two weeks, indicating early resonance with consumers in a rapidly expanding and competitive market."
My own PT around $3 by EOM
cannabis stocks waking upanyone looking at cannabis stocks might be eyeing up this x7 long, reasons below:
- monthly macd curling up
- price breaking long term downtrend
- obv looking to breakout, retest of blue dotted required to confirm
- good volume on this recent green candle
with world adoption this could be the quick rich scheme most are after
$GRWG is my Top Pick in the Cannabis SpaceSince Q1 2018 through their most recent quarter GrowGeneration has seen quarterly sales grow 10X. As of the writing of this post the stock price is up about 4X over the same time period. They have grown sales by over 100% YoY on each of their last 8 quarterly earnings reports and have recorded bottom line profits in 4 of their last 6 quarters (a rare feat in the cannabis space). Going forward I see no signs of that slowing down. Some catalysts include legalization, earnings, and potential M&A. Legalization measures are on the ballot in New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Montana and South Dakota. The most important of these is NJ where I believe it is likely to pass. This will continue to drive more and more legal production of cannabis. While the growers and distributors can be adversely impacted by fluctuations in prices GrowGeneration never actually touches nor sells the plant. They sell the materials and equipment required for growing cannabis and therefore benefit most from increased production. GRWG is set to report earnings on 11/16/2020 and I expect them to post another stellar quarter. I expect to see the stock price trade up to is previous high at about $22 ahead of the print. If they post another profitable quarter and maintain their impressive sales growth the stock could easily trade up to the $25-$30 range. Longer term the sky is the limit. In my opinion the biggest threat to GRWG is if a large competitor like Home Depot or Lowes tries to compete and sell their own cannabis production supplies. While this is not a threat to be taken lightly, but I believe the more likely outcome would be a partnership considering GrowGeneration has already developed relationships with some of the biggest cannabis growers. Trust is extremely important in the cannabis space making these relationships more valuable than they would be in other sectors. I have followed and owned this stock for a few years and plan to add on any meaningful pullback until or unless the fundamentals change course.
LABS.TO - Filled the gap. $2.50 price target from Canaccord.LABS presents a very good entry near .84 gap fill. Canaccord analyst has revised the price target to $2.50 after EU deal announcement and the company continues to produce excellent news flow. Strong support in the low .80s. Gap above at 1.69. Positive MACD divergence. Sector is finally turning bullish. I like this setup.
Massive Short Squeeze in CanopyCanopy is on fire today, and is up 20% plus on the week, off the back of optimism over the possible decriminalization of Marijuana in the United States. Last night at the Vice Presidential Debate, Kamala Harris made mention of the dems plan to bring this to fruition, should they win the election in November. This has the entire sector hot today, without exception, as one can expect.
It looks as though we may hit the 200 day MA at 23.30 this week before we see profit taking, and the shorts re-entering. It's also important to note that we're nearing major resistance with the top of the downward channel a stones throw away. I suspect we may see a reversal of the squeeze next week once the bulls have achieved these levels. If there's enough momentum to pierce the upper downtrend line, and the 200 day MA, the upside could be massive, particularly seeing as earnings are not until early November.
We shouldn't rule out the possibility of a broad market sell off, given the high number of potential catalysts floating around at the moment. This could heavily affect Canopy's price action, and the positive sentiment around it's valuation.
I appreciate your time today guys. Thanks, Michael.
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Canopy Looking Particularly WeakCanopy is in a defined downtrend, and has been trading below it's 21 day EMA since mid August with diminishing volume. Note: earnings release is early November, and the stock has consistently sold off heavily on recent earnings reports off the back of low demand, high supply, and the natural constraints of scaling the edibles/drinks business, among other constraints.
The industry has taken a beating with favorites like Aphria down 90% plus from past highs. Aphria's recent earnings report was a monster disappointment, and sent the stock tumbling 20% plus in a single day. I've seen moves of similar magnitude to the downside in Canopy off the back of recent, and similarly disappointing earnings reports. I suspect just as we've witnessed before, the stock will be pumped into earnings, only to be hammered lower once again.
Stay tuned.
Michael
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The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research.