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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 hEUR/USD Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from EVZ we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 9.05%, equal to last week. This can be translated in +/- 1.26% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 1.10 BOT: 1.073 If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the EVZ( from 0 to 25) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 74% according to the last 20 years of data 67% according to the data since 2022 From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 30% to touch the previous weekly high 70% to touch the previous weekly low At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: +93% Bullish Trend D Timeframe: +93% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: +40% Bullish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 1.081% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 0.966% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
by exlux
EUR/USD Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 EUR/USD Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 1.31% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 2th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 1.05% movement Bearish: 0.95% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 30% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 1.079 BOT: 1.049 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 29% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high 70% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates 93.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates 26.67 BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
by exlux
EURUSD Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 EURUSD Weekly Volatility Analysis 19-23 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.4%, DOWN from 1.53% from last week With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.089% movement Bearish: 0.966% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 30% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 1.075 BOT: 1.043 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 65% probability we are going to touch previous high 1.0735 35% probability we are going to touch previous low 1.0435 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 26% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -13% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
by exlux
EURUSD Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 EURUSD Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 1.48%, DOWN from 1.53% from last week according to EVZ data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1ST percentile, while according to EVZ, we are on 1th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.121% movement Bearish: 0.966% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 30% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 1.069 BOT: 1.037 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 71% probability we are going to touch previous high 1.059 30% probability we are going to touch previous low 1.044 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 26% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates 93% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates 80% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index
by exlux
9
EURUSD Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 EURUSD Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 1.65% , down from 1.86% of last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 13th percentile, while with EVZ we are on 1th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 1.185% In case of bearish - 0.966% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 30% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 1.057 BOT: 1.018 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 30% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 1.022 70% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 1.045( already hit) Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 4% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
by exlux
BTC Insight and what to expect in the following weeks and monthThe OVERALL TREND on WEEKLY and DAILY seems to be complimenting each other which means both time-frame agree, I shared a previous insight on BTC weekly a year ago Nov 20, 2021. Today, I am looking at what to expect and I see the correlation clearly. I might be wrong but the PRICE ACTION is obvious, carefully look at the key levels identified and see the relationship it has to what PRICE ACTION was completed on these KEY AREAS. After the CONSOLIDATION BREAK below the SUPPORT AREA at (19225.78) with a STRONG MOMENTUM, I am positive there is a potential of seeing a clear of the next "Anticipated Key Support Area" before a final Blow..
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by MII1502
4
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 1.65%, up from 1.61% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 35th from ATR and 38th from EVZ index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 1.23% for bullish 0.967% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 78.3% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 1.05 BOT: 1.017 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 71% to hit the previous weekly high of 1.036 28% to hit the previous weekly low of 0.99
by exlux
GBPUSD Longs!Gameplan is to buy GBP. Yes, we still have a major bear down trend on weeklies and daily. On daily we have been forming higher lows & higher highs, with retest of current support + a nice bullish break. What would have made this trade IDEAL would've been fully engulfing daily bull candle to offset all the bear volume. If you look at the weekly, price is overextended and in need of a retracement before another bearish move can be made. On the daily, we have short term bullish structure forming and we have just held newly established support and made a good bullish break - very healthy bull candles coming off close to support shows plenty of momentum for GBPUSD in the week to come.
Long
by nick2497
$DXY - It has been my best friend for while...$DXY - It has been my best friend for while... We have a saying in trading: The trend is your friend until it breaks! We reaching key areas, my longer term target if we break above 110 areas next 120 IF we get there. I do really like to keep an open mind to either direction. However, we had a large pull back this morning which makes sense to have. Keep an eye on the key areas we at break above or below shorter term and longer term the big question is - Is this a pattern brewing of a rising wedge to have a pull back medium term? Things to keep in mind are the key fundamental data we had FOMC yesterday dovish and 75 hike it was expected the slimmer chance weeks went by of 100 and that did sound like a joke imo. However, we pulling back FX Majors check HT as it really key and we entering near end of month as well. Remember: Follow your own trade plan, it will make you very successful. TJ
ICEUS:DX1!
by Trade_Journal
Here We GoHi everyone, In my last post, I was explaining how we might still be bearish and how we might make a pullback to the upside for BTCUSDT. Looking at the price, we just broke above the trendline shown above which represents the resistance for the area of consolidation. In other words, we are looking at a breakout. Since we are retesting the higher time frame (H4) previous highs, I am really interested in the 21100 level, where we might see some consolidation. The main reason I think this would be an important level is that it is in confluence with previous H4 lows above the price we are at right now, as well as the 0.382 Fib level considering the last upward move and the 0.5 Fib level considering the last downward move. The direction of the trend will be determined by the breakout from the next consolidation level.
Long
by yassin_khanji
10