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Macroeconomics

BTCUSDT - UpdateHi All, As we have discussed in our previous analysis (see the link below), BTCUSDT broke below the mini-bull uptrend line from January and bounced off the 1st support level at 38K. Now, if BTC can break above the local downtrend line, would expect a move up possibly to 41,800 resistance line. Otherwise, it would break the 38K support line and sell to the 2nd support line at 35K. Our overall market outlook is bearish due to macro economics and the world events. Thank you for your support! * Not a financial advice and please do your own DD.
Short
by BlokBox
Bitcoin ongoing trendBitcoin is just forming a bearish flag, i don´t know why people are so bullish about this pump. The market needed to breath, obvious it pumped. Waiting for 40k-42k to short my position. People forget that Jerone Paul will not print more money and will raise interest rates. I dont know if we are in bear market but bitcoin will not be different from Nasdaq or S&P. Macro view in bearish in all markets. Dont be foolish. If you are not accumulating bitcoin, start it now in support areas.
by AlexandreAmaro
1
SP 500 large count, Primary count 4 wave of the 5thThinking out loud trying to make sense of it all.. Still thinking we have another push up to come before the market makes a larger top. The move could certainly blow off more but I think 5400 range is conservative if we do have a 5th to come. Growth sector is the most beat up and the value rotation doesn't make sense as they are over represented by businesses that will be deeply disrupted by exponential technologies(EV/Hyrdogen/Solar/Biotech/Crypto/3d printing/AI). That seems the best long term sector to rotate to in my opinion. Either way everything will be affected by the massive shift in the underlying and antiquated finance system underpinning everything. Some are calling tops now but historically the market still rises for the first rate rises. But the slowing economy and likely peak in inflation over the last month may tip the feds hand early and maybe they only get a couple of hikes in. If there is a surprise to be had its more likely dovish than hawkish. And it seems unlikely we get concensus to spur growth in government. Deflation likely wins on multiple fronts before inflation gets another hand when the system breaks. The major unknown is exponential growth and the pivot to it...growth will be massive when it ramps up the curve, half of the growth occurs in the last doubling. Many forces colliding. Good luck out there. Cash flow is king.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by jlantrip
BTC Correction Cycle end Soon!!!According to Frost and Prechter Elliot waves, both progressive and correction waves are seems end already and BTC wondering begin a new cycle or not! there is a possibility that BTC's new Progressive wave start soon. by Observing ATR(Average True Range), the pattern is similar to what we have on 29th Sep 2021. Price is exactly on a strong resistance point and with Inflation data which be released on Wednesday, Markets would get out of spider's web. SUM UP: I'm still very bullish at this moment and even we face another correction however we walked most of the road to the correction.
Long
by behzadjl
Bitcoin Mid-Week UpdateBearish structure continues... HOWEVER... Exchange outflows are increasing, indicating "whales" are establishing a support level. Macro-economic factors have major potential for crypto surge in Q1 2022 as a result of wealth preservation efforts. Currently expecting continuation to bottom of channel ($13k to $16k)... BUT the likelihood of a near-term crash across the entire market is decreasing. Many new emerging tech projects in crypto and in venture exchanges are at optimal entries (bottom of channels). Market prediction confidence lower due to outside factors.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by R0MM3LL
Evergrande's SelfdestructionEvergrande shares, symbol 3333, have been getting demolished as of late. On December 6th it broke past its all time lows of 1.88 HKD. This puts Evergrand's stock over 94% down from it's ATH of 32.39 HKD now at 1.77 HKD. The stock is no longer in free fall however, that may not last for long. On December 9th the real estate developer had defaulted on its debt for the first time. Despite the striking resemblance to the fall of Lehman Brothers, Evergrande has made strong efforts to distance itself from being perceived as fundamentally the same thing. Narratives around possible contagion to global markets have fuelled uncertainties and a possible run to risk off. Crypto could suffer due to offshore creditors to Evergrande such as Black Rock who also have exposure to BTC and ETH possibly selling to rebalance or cover losses. Please check out my previous analysis on BTC/USD where I predicted a retrace to $50k with support @ $47k. If you like my content, feedback, likes and coins are encouraged and appreciated! Thank you.
HKEX:3333Short
by Kumo9
$ETH Market CyclesTime series analysis of Ethereum 2016-2018 bull market vs current 2020-2022 market cycle with confluence of US10Y yields. The US10Y reflect business cycles of inflation/deflation. Ethereum performs well during inflation as yields rise and the market environment becomes risk on. As inflation continues, high yields put strain on the economy and monetary policy makers tighten the money supply, causing deflation and deleveraging and Ethereum inevitably tops. I suggest the bull market will continue until Q2 2022. Until then, BTFD.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by eltoro69
DXY - Dollar Squeeze into Q4Idea for DXY: - Why there may be a dollar squeeze into Q4 2021: - June 30, G-SIB banks begin stock buybacks. - Capital returned to investors nearing $200bn as estimated by Barclays. - $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits. - "With a 5% SLR minimum at the holdco level, banks run 20-times leverage, which means that $10 billion in stock buybacks means $200 billion less of banks’ demand for reserves, Treasuries, MBS, and deposits" - Zoltan; That's 20x leverage = $4T of leveraged capital. - $1T o/n RRP usage continually drains systemic liquidity. - Zoltan: " So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that “sucks” the deposits away that banks decided to retain." "And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows, some bond-heavy banks cannot. As a result, Zoltan predicts that next “we will notice that some banks (those who can not handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.” Bottom line: whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before." "the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves." "we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors" - China consumer spending as a % of GDP was only 54% last year (2011-2019 avg. of 53%) vs consumption in advanced economies averaging 70-80%. - YoY % deceleration means stagflation/deflationary positioning. - China has been the global economy driver since 2008, and were first to tighten monetary policy, so this a more accurate assessment of global economic health. - Spending problem in China fuels the demand for USD and US bonds, as they are seen as more secure than other DM/EM debt. - Previously forecasted the DXY Bounce in May: - Price is in sync with the Technicals: Predict 6000~ pips DXY squeeze into Q4. GLHF - DPT
TVC:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Black Swan - Inflation is TransitorySpeculation for Macro: I argue that price and consumer price inflation do not influence equities as much as the dollar. Investors who are betting on stocks because of 'inflation' will be in for a shock. Yields indicate we may be entering stagflation. Economic slowdown and rising dollar will prove a stronger force than consumer price inflation. After all the Eurodollar market is the market. Not used cars, not meat, not even gas. Investors going on margin to buy stocks because of the inflation narrative are making a grave mistake. (Monetary) Inflation and QE are frauds designed to get force investors into riskier assets and distribute risk onto them. QE does not lead inflation. Credit leads inflation. QE is just a swap of reserves, so even if media is blaring that Fed is 'printing money' and 'hyperinflation' it does not leave the banking system. In fact, commercial banks hoard it all. We can see by reverse repurchase agreements that banks are stuffed with money and would rather take the overnight rate than trade it for risk. Money enters the economy through lending by the commercial banks. QE does reduce volatility by backstopping banks and guaranteeing solvencies. For a time, it forces investors into higher risk assets to search for yield. It affects investors' psychology and creates speculative bubbles by making them believe they are hedging against inflation. Jerome Powell was even mentioning the VIX in one of his interviews. They watch that. What is inflationary is credit. Investors, being deluded into complacency and invincibility, will take loans and buy more and riskier assets backed by lower quality collateral. We are not just talking about stocks either, but people will buy bigger homes, better cars, etc. More risk and more liabilities. All will be paid back. We know that the global credit impulse has peaked and China's Credit Impulse has turned negative. The Credit Cycle is reversing and debt will be called. Debtors at the front of the curve are harvesting their liabilities, and it will create a collapse in the credit bubble. Credit leads the economy. Credit is going down. Recession is coming, as indicated by yields. M2V has collapsed and is not even shown anymore. While seemingly complex, the economy is just a series of transactions. Low velocity of transactions is deflationary and signals a demand for the dollar, rather than goods or services. Furthermore, QE has a side effect of reducing the top tier collateral (US Treasuries) from the system. When the credit bubble collapses, the low quality collateral which investors have been forced into will suddenly become illiquid and bidless. The dollar actually rises with QE and the Fed Balance sheet (especially since 2008): Investors, particularly foreign sovereigns need the dollar to hedge US investments and creates more demand for it. It is the Eurodollar market that drives the price of the dollar and the global financial market. Just an aside, the Eurodollar market is all digital, it is the real Bitcoin. Sovereigns want dollars not Bitcoin. It is the Eurodollar market which drives risk-taking and currencies. QE is a tiny drop in the ocean. While certain commodities are heating up and there is a lot of 'news' about demand and supply chain shortages, I believe that commodity demand will rather decline to follow the price of the dollar, not the other way around. Shortage expectations are assuming a nation running at full capacity, but productivity is slowing and the labor market is revealing tightness. Shortages are typically followed by gluts. News follows price. Watch for big busts in 2022 similar to lumber in many commodities. It is more a speculative bubble, rather than a fundamental one. Credit leads the economy, which leads dollar demand, as banks and sovereigns hoard it because they know recession is coming. Real rates will continue to fall, offshore dollar shortages are showing, as massively leveraged businesses like Evergrande collapse, and it may only be just the beginning. It is a Lehman moment for China. With defaults, there is more forced demand for the dollar. When dollar demand rises to uncontrollable levels, there can be no more lending, and there will be a cascade of insolvencies by junk bond issuers. At this point, yields may indeed spike. The dollar will continue to rise, and the only thing that can stop it is the US defaulting on its debt. Watch for the debt ceiling, but remember that has been raised almost every year for 100 years. Technically, the dollar is in a demand zone, with a double bottom and testing resistance. Unless the debt ceiling is not raised, I doubt it will go back to 80. When dollar demand rises to uncontrollable levels, there can be no more lending, and there will be a cascade of insolvencies by junk bond issuers. Being long inflation, you are basically short the dollar right now. This cascade can happen slowly... then all at once. Fund managers are FOMOing into risk, as you can't miss a quarter by being bearish if you are managing money. Damn the consequences. When it blows up, everyone will blow up, and they will be bailed out anyway, right? You aren't in a worse position than anyone else. However, when it ends, everyone will want out, and fast. The first one out wins. My point is that credit contraction, followed by a rising dollar which is about to break out will crash this bubble. The bottom line is that there will be a collateral squeeze, as there is more that has been lent out (leverage) vs the high quality collateral that creditors desire, as indicated by margin debt at ATH... While retail believes that the opposite is happening and they willingly destroy themselves by taking on risk for collateral. What is so different from now than 08? NFTs and cryptocurrencies are similar to the CDOs of subprime mortgages. They are just highly leveraged packages of lending backed by low-quality collateral, or even nothing. The product, or ticker, might change, but they are just units of credit, which are dictated by the Credit Cycle. I've been hearing that the market can't go down until there is a blowoff top. What do you think this is? When it comes to debt, you can't just 'not pay it back'. Federal budget deficit doesn't have much to do with it. The money that is 'printed' by the Fed is just hoarded by banks, and Treasury and Fed are separate. However, more Treasury debt just means citizens pay more in taxes, as it is paid for by tax revenue as it matures. It will only increase the cost of borrowing for corporations, causing more downward pressure on the economy, which will make banks hoard even more. Again, on top of that you have default risk (watch the debt ceiling), and reduced government spending outside of debt servicing. Military, social, and economic influence will decline. China just continuously buys US debt to devalue the yuan and gain a trade surplus. Increasing the US federal deficit will increase debt servicing and decrease military spending, and in the case of a default, while China will lose revenue, they will gain share of global influence. That's the game that's being played between them, so you can't just default. What happened in Afghanistan? In the end, it's really all just a ruse for those that lead the Credit Cycle to harvest more wealth and assets. Since when did people believe markets can't go down, Fed has your back, you have to be in stocks to beat inflation. It's not different this time. There is nothing new under the sun. I guess you could say that inflation was an attempt to use credit to boost the underlying economy, which failed. The real black swan will be a deflationary shock. "Inflation is transitory." - Jerome Powell GLHF - DPT
TVC:DXYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
17
COVID IN THE USA: REALITY IS A HARSH PLACETradingview has some amazing data on COVID. This chart is of importance for long term investment purposes (see fat disclaimer below). Importantly this is about total of all cases infections and deaths. Some may say that's meaningless. But there are important features on the chart. Say what you see! I'll say what I see. If the war on COVID was being won, one would expect to see at least clear plateaus. That makes sense because it means there is no massive set of new cases to increase the total. I hope folk get the point. Watch the red arrows. 1. On death total - it's accelerating. Certainly no plateau. 2. On case total - it's accelerating. No plateau. Of course this does not mean that the numbers won't plateau. The point is that the trajectories and the power of the numbers means they're not winning the war. A plateau would probably have been expected in the post-vaccination era. Some say, the plateau is coming soon. How would they know. Do they know the future better than everybody else? All I know is what I see: There are no plateaus. Do we stay with evidence or do we believe rhetoric repeated in lamestream media? Well, the choice is yours. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities on live accounts. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
C
by Captain_Walker
4
Macro - BDRYModel has given entry signals for Dry Bulk Shipping: - The investment seeks to provide investors with exposure to the daily change in the price of dry bulk freight futures. - We expect a boom in the shipping and freight sector with the pandemic backlog, and nations increasing their industrial production to meet new initiatives. - We are very excited about opportunities in the commodities and shipping sectors, as we believe a macro turn is approaching in the nearest future. - Technically has broken out of a channel, retested the support possibly finding a new channel top. GLHF, DPT Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
AMEX:BDRYLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
Baltic Dry Index UpdateThe Baltic Dry Index Continues to soar following my call for a breakout at 3,200ish (July 2021). I think the BDI remains a good indicator right now for a few reasons: 1. From a technical perspective, it is behaving exactly as expected (hence the call from 3,200 - it was an easy read) 2. The breakout and move higher is consistent with a bottleneck in global shipping 3. The #bullish price action is yet another harmonious variable in my view of the global macro repricing; although I am still treating the idea of "re-pricing" as a theory. I am going to not this as a continued long until we reach the 4,700 threshold; at that point, we can reassess.
INDEX:BDILong
by ChiefMacro
2
Thoughts on macro conditions for European banksIt is no secret that in the Basel III era, the core profitability of European banks has not been satisfactory. While European banks' return on equity is not even close to the pre-07 levels and falls short on their cost of capital, US banks enjoy double-digit ROE and significantly higher valuations. This mismatch made me wonder whether the current macroeconomic landscape gives EU banking some hope for a rebound and closing the US-EU profitability gap. At the first sight, forward-looking macro indicators seem to be favourable for EU banks. GDP growth rapidly accelerated after the 2020 slump, inflation is remarkably high and the central bank will have to increase interest rates sooner than later. But still, return on equity and consequently, valuations of European banks still look quite modest when compared to their US equivalents. The underlying problem behind the profitability underperformance of European banks is overcapacity. Competitive pressure is high and additionally, banks have to deal with the increasing fintech sector. The problem could be targeted by the supervisors (higher capital requirements for new entrants, lack of “credible integration plans'' etc) but market forces are necessary to successfully combat low concentration. Historically, the years following implementation of more strict regulation (Basel III) should result in decreased profitability of banks (no surprise) and consequently more movement towards higher market concentration. However, last year M&A volume in European banking was far from impressive. According to the KPMG European Banking Consolidation report, the volume of mergers and acquisitions involving European banks in 2020 reached its lowest level since the 07-08 crisis. To be clear, a strong downtrend in the M&A volume has been observed since 2010 so the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 was not a direct cause. The current financial landscape seems to be favourable for mergers and acquisitions volume increase. Low interest rates, relatively cheap bank equity, loosening of M&A regulation and need for restructuring in response to digital transformation. Thus, forecasts for the M&A volume in banking are relatively generous. The exogenous determinants I described are only a fraction of the whole banking landscape. Bank-specific factors and digital transformation are equally valid components. Nevertheless, bearing in mind the historical tendency of banks to concentrate more in response to new regulations and promising M&A volume outlook, I am optimistic.
XETR:CXPBLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
💡🎓1929-2031: The Fractal Macro Economic Expansion Cycle🎓💡The 2 major Expansion Cycles of the 20th Century, both expanded exactly +2509%. & both over exactly 18 Years from ATH Breakout!! In this analysis, I compare the size and duration of the 2 major economic expansions cycles of the 20th Century, identifying the key components of each individual cycle to draw Observations, Parallels and Predictions with the 3rd major economic expansion cycle currently happening in the 21st Century. Observations; All 3 Macro Economic Cycles have 4 key Components; Correction A. Crash, Recession & Recovery Expansion Phase 1; B. Breakout from ATH C. Double Micro Wedge Expansion Phase 2 D. Single Macro Wedge Parallels; The 2 completed Expansion Cycles (1 & 2) of the 20th Century both have exactly the same traits; 1. Both start with a Correction: Crash, Recession & Recovery (of varying lengths / %) 2. Both expanded by exactly 2509% by the ATH / Next Correction, compared to previous Low (previous correction) 3. Both expansions lasted exactly 18 years from breakout of previous ATH to next ATH prior to correction 4. Both expansions were broken into 2 Phases of exactly 9 years each , defined by the same following characteristics: a. Phase 1: First 8 years of expansion - Breakout of from ATH, succeeded & Double Micro Wedge b. Phase 2: Second 8 years expansion - A Single Macro Wedge Expansion Cycle 1 & 2 Details Expansion Cycle 1: +2509% / 219 Bars ATH Breakout: 1954 to Correction: 1972 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1929 Previous Market Low: 1932 Expansion Cycle 2: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 1982 to Correction: 2000 (18 Years) Previous ATH: 1972 Previous Market Low: 1974 Prediction: Expansion Cycle 3 started in 2013, with a Break out from Previous ATH, that was quickly succeeded by a Double Micro Wedge, all leading up to today (September 2021), which is roughly the end of a Expansion Phase 1 of 9 Years (half of 18 Year historical Expansion duration) Expansion Cycle 3; Phase 2 will start in 2022 and last until 2031, during which we could expect to see a major wedge form within the market, combined with a exponential expansion to reach a Market ATH of +2509% in 2031 (compared to previous market low in 2009) that will catalyse the next major market Correction: Crash Recession & Recovery from 2031 through subsequent years. Expansion Cycle 3 Details Expansion Cycle 3: +2509% / 217 Bars ATH Breakout: 2013 to Correction: 2031 (Predicted 18 Years) Previous ATH: 2000/2007 Previous Market Low: 2009 Conclusion; The market is essentially a self repeating algorithm, a fractal!! First defined by Robert W. Brooks in 1978, then first visualized by Benoit Mandelbrot in 1980, this has since been known as the Mandelbrot Set, and can be observed all across complex systems both natural and synthetic, with this mathematic miracle providing the foundation for CGI (Computer Generated Images) so advanced/complex that they can emulate real world expressions of complex natural formations such as mountains, human movement and almost anything you can think of! Yea fractals are awesome, I've seen them a bunch while tripping and have come to understanding of their fundamental role in creating the realities & universe we experience :D I guess the question is, will they play out in the current and future Macro Economic Cycles as well? What are your thoughts? yemala
TVC:SPX
by Yemala
6
COVID-19 - Evolutionary Curve ForecastIdea for COVID-19: - We believe that the fight against COVID-19 has entered the mid game. - Can COVID-19 be beaten in the game of evolution? We think so. Viruses are rational actors, and will behave as a population in the interests of their evolutionary fitness. - While the media's narrative of "wave 3" of COVID-19 has spread and is widely known, Motive Wave 2 of COVID-19 will begin in June 2021 (new wave 1 2 3), which will end at the end of 2022. Speculation: - Global vaccinations and pandemic responses have introduced strong selective pressure on the virus since the beginning of the year. - From summer to the end of the year, the virus will select a new dominant variant to dominate. Expectations for the end of Motive Wave 2 (2022-2023): - Uncontrolled Growth: 1.3 Billion+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Infectivity and Vaccine resistance: 900 Million+ infected, 21.8 Million+ deaths. - Lethality: 470 Million+ infected, 16.4 Million+ deaths. - Severity/and or Vaccine resistance (without infectivity): 320 Million+ infected, 10.9 Million+ deaths. - Successful Vaccination: Infection should drop rapidly, but 5.4 Million+ deaths. To model total deaths , we fit the % curve of the moving average: Disclaimer: We absolutely do not provide financial advice in any shape or form. We do not recommend investing based on our opinions and strongly cautions that securities trading and investment involves high risk and that you can lose a lot of money. Loss of principal is possible. We do not recommend risking money you cannot afford to lose. We do not guarantee future performance nor accuracy in historical analyses. We are not registered investment advisors. Our ideas, opinions and statements are not a substitute for professional investment advice. We provide ideas containing impersonal market observations and our opinions. Our speculations may be used in preparation to form your own ideas.
C
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
4
Inflation TradeIn the chart below you have the TIP and IEF the IEF ratio. IEF is Ishares 7-10 year treasury bond ETF and TIP is the TIPs bond etf. On the right side of the chart you have the 10 year inflation breakeven. Now looking at the two you can see that they track pretty closely. Now generally the IEF 7-10 year has a very similar duration to that of the TIP etf. Some people are wondering how to play the inflation hedge as with some of the largest tech stocks P/E multiple compression could pose an issue to high P/E ratio trading stocks. What does this mean, and what is multiple compression. Well what happens as inflation rises that inflation starts to be built into P/E multiples, and as that happens you start to get compression of those P/E multiples this can pose a massive risk to equity holders. So my thesis would be you could short IEF, and be long TIP. This is something to look into, and I believe that spread that you can see below is going to widen tremendously. So it is something to watch out for, and a trade you might want to consider setting up.
AMEX:TIPLong
by tahirg0010
1
Will FED Taper?Fed tightening 10 year surged to almost 3.2% when Powell tried to tighten this can be seen on the chart below. Now following that measure to tighten you see the S&P fall 20% this miscalculation of the FED to increase rates. Powell was out to pop the equity bubble, but again this miscalculation caused them to stop tightening, and on the chart below you can see this was followed by the cutting of rates. Low growth married to market expecting liquidity has allowed us to see huge growth. We are stuck in the circle of asset growth over strong economic growth.
SP:SPX
by tahirg0010