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Anatomy of LUNA's technical breakdown - a painful meta-analysisLUNA (and UST) rocked the (crypto) markets last week, and hogged the headlines. There were many who got wiped out, and the prospect of recovery appears very remote, if at all. Here I would like to share why I chose LUNA to be a major part of my portfolio, entered and managed the trade (I would not term this as an investment, really). I hope that this sharing can be a good starting learning point of some fundamental factors that we all need in risk management. Luck comes along with hard work and preparation, so just keep at the good stuff, always. For the early part of 2022, a triangle pattern was forming with LUNA, following LUNA's surge in late 2021. Had missed the breakout in late February and had to wait for some pullback, which was shallow. Entry was taken as there was about 50% more of the projected target (see green arrows). MACD and RPM was favourable at that time too. A surge pushed LUNA closer to target and about 60% was taken off, since entry was significantly large of my portfolio, and this was redistributed elsewhere. A retracement took place and almost closed the trade, but one day more made a difference with yet another surge. This time, it got closer to the projected target but retraced just before. Had decided to project the next target level, and kept trade open for the time. LUNA was performing well about this time too, so that was a consolation. In early April, again, it failed to reach projected target and I had decided to allow this to bake longer as the remainder of LUNA that I had, I was willing to hold longer. Then the technical breakdowns started... It returned to the near the entry price, and if it went below further for a day more, I would take it off. Yet again, a surge off that (critical) support level happened. It was very clear that this is now my OSL... LUNA spiked to break above the 55EMA, and reach a resistance in three days, and then consolidated, as bullish technicals faded away slowly. Yet another retracement was effected, after a lower high, no less, and tested the critical support OSL again. A short bounce ensued, and this time, as it failed the resistance, and perhaps more importantly, the 55EMA. Furthermore, the RPM was turning bear, adn MACD was weak. So, I decided that it was enough. Closed out the last 40%, meant for longer term hold, and walked away happy. Started to take notice that LUNA was getting into the news, initially saw UST, and then LUNA got mentioned more. Barely two days after closed trade, LUNA depreciated so much that it was clear something was not right. Technically, the bears were moving and fundamentally, some serious shit was happening. Then it broke the critical support, aka OSL. And that was it... free fall. Then we started reading about many who lost fortunes from this breakdown. Few personal takeaways I have to share, in good faith: 1. It is a trade, not an investment, so keep an eye on crypto positions always. Volatility is part of crypto and it must be accepted, monitored and managed; 2. Read more about what you buy, and keep abreast of its developments. Apparently, a lot about the UST peg was criticized, and admittedly, I read none of those prior; 3. Have good technical analyses and keep a simple set of rules for engagement; 4. If always make sure your tokens are nimble, even if you are staking. A quick retrieval to sell off if and when required is needed. The amount of time you need must be overestimated, and so you know that you need to act eariler, rather than later; and 5. Always have that sacred OSL , and respect that if it is ever broken, you also need to break off the trade. The last point is by far the MOST IMPORTANT takeaway. I kept to mine, and it saved me, unwittingly. Many others, even in the equities market, have asked of late, what to do... Thing here is, we need the solution before the market tanks; we know the solution(s) too. So, need to form the habit of letting go when it is time, so that we are free to move along and recover. As we go through the next weeks recovering our wounds, I hope that you find it in your spirit to understand what happened, both external and internal. And we can only control the control-ables (internal), namely, our actions. So develop a set of steady rules, keep to it, and always have that OSL. It is a live saver. I shared the above, in good faith, as I think it need to put out my learning points of the weekend. I do beg your pardon if it rubbed on sore points, and if it did, it means it needs tending. Read, analyze, and discuss... I believe that there is enough of a community there to help each of us get better. 2022 is a more volatile year, good for those who know how to manage. God bless and take care.
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by Auguraltrader
2
LUNA/BUSD Daily TA Cautiously BearishLUNA/USD Daily cautiously bearish. LUNA currently having a Scarface moment, "You think you can kill me with bullets?". The Revival Plan posted by Do Kwon with help from the Lunatic community shows that perhaps there is enough support to have Luna rise from the ashes, but whether or not it ever reaches its previous ATH at $120 without removing or significantly modifying the UST:LUNA peg aspect of Terra is TBD. Recommended ratio: 5% LUNA, 95% cash. Price is currently trading for fractions of a cent ($0.00025748) just above max bottom as it has become a "meme coin" that some investors are betting big on recovering. Volume remains extremely high and is becoming more fairly balanced between buyers and sellers as it is attempting establish a new base. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at 30, this margin is bullish. RSI remains flat lining at the ATL of 14.25 for the fifth consecutive session. Stochastic also remains flat lining at max bottom. MACD is currently printing a new ATL at -24.65 and is beginning to form a trough; this is mildly bullish at the moment, though it would need to break out above -18 for a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up at 45 as Price remains near 0; this is bearish. If Price is able to break out above $0.01, then the next resistance is at $0.27. However, if Price stays below $0.01, it can trade down here for a while until LFG figures out the best way forward. Mental Stop Loss: (two closes above) $0.01. *I'm using BUSD because the chart I had been doing LUNA/USD TA on was broken when Binance delisted that pair* **You should only invest what you are prepared to lose into LUNA at the moment because it is currently still unclear how they plan to move forward**
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by dailytaguy
LUNA BREAKOUT! ROUND 2??? We can only hope so!LUNA has been in a steady declining channel since yesterdays impressive gains. We can see here that LUNA has been on a cool down since yesterdays dash up. If you will look inside the channel you will see that nowhere until now has it made any significant break to go back up. Until now.. if it holds till the top of this channel and goes over the drawn purple descending line we should be on to round two and our end goal of One dollar. Do I think one dollar is possible? It is possible (if large burns happen of coins in circulation) is it probable ? No.. My Target is 0.01 cent . Which is still massive gains. Lets hope we break out of this descending channel now ! Everyone who is saying that this project is dead probably just lost a **** ton of money, didnt buy back in , and is hating everyone from profiting from the crash. Do not be talked out of this epic opportunity! And everyone who lost everything I am EXTREMELY sorry and my empathy goes out to you , but hopefully you can throw in what ever you have or have left and ride this wave back up and recuperate most if not all of your losses. It's never over, there is always another opportunity just around the bend and I think that this could be ours ! Cheers to financial Freedom! lets Pump this shit to a penny and then some!! ALL BUYS NO SELLS ! Lets get rich!
Long
by DreamBIG90
28
LUNA - What This Crash Means According To AriasWave.As I have been mentioning over he last several video updates, we are looking for a large 5-Wave move to the downside across all markets. Interestingly enough this particular Crypto performed this move way ahead of what I expected from every market over the coming weeks and months. This could either be a great buying opportunity or maybe it may never recover. Perhaps buying a small amount at these prices won't exactly break the bank but the payoff might be worth it. Be greedy when others are fearful. I will track this Crypto because it may just be the future meme coin that no one anticipated. I came to this conclusion using AriasWave which fits perfectly into what I see happening across the board. If you need help acquiring this coin please visit my website and send me a message on the contact page. Remember to use Disciplined Money Management Principles to ensure longevity as a trader. If you don't know the long term pattern shouldn't you be doing your research instead of just following the crowd? Just remember: I am not a financial advisor, I suggest using this only as a guide. Always do your own research.
LLong
by AriasWave
13
Luna for another 100x pump after the BIG CRASH!!Since luna pump after the big crash, we see a retracement after it goes to 0.0059$ ( from $0.000000999967 ) Now after its reached to Demand Zone at 0.00017% its start to goes up again. Target is the SUPPLY ZONE in 0.04$. There are some traders mentioned that we need to reach that price to consolidate the present Market Cap Also, We need a Break of Structure to consider this Pump. Lets see DISCLAIMER: Please Do your own technical analysis and make this chart as a guide only.
LLong
by ridenz77
16
New moon for nowHello! After the storm, Luna appears to have forming another structure. This can trigger a FOMO in many players and can lead to a increase in price, many will hope that it will hit $1. And its possible but have a very small probability. In the next days Terra members will be working on a plan to refund those that have been lost in this crash, and will also reconstruct the network twitter.com . As they can do anything, they can do a rollback in the block production to moment prior the crash and refund the money people had lost before and after this moment. So the real value of the luna coins now is very uncertain. I do fell sorry for the people that lost in this unconventional event. But think you can recovery all of it, we always do. As a trade plan, I will buy a small amount that I can afford to lose and distribute sell orders at every fib level. To recuperate the invested and reserve some LUNA in the case it really strikes at 1 and more. The size of the orders depends on your perspective. Thank you for reading!
LLong
by lcharles1001
9
$LUNAUSDTWhat is Terra? Terra is a decentralized financial payment network that rebuilds the traditional payment stack on the blockchain. It utilizes a basket of fiat-pegged stablecoins, algorithmically stabilized by its reserve currency Luna, to facilitate programmable payments and open financial infrastructure development. As of December 2020, the network has transacted an estimated $299 billion for over 2 million users. What is Luna? Luna is the reserve currency of the Terra platform. It has three core functions: i) mine Terra transactions through staking, ii) ensure the price stability of Terra stablecoins and iii) provide incentives for the platform’s blockchain validators. The Terra protocol runs on a Proof of Stake (PoS) blockchain, whereby miners must stake their Luna in order to mine transactions. All else being equal, a validator who has staked more Luna has a higher chance of generating the next Terra block compared to another validator who has staked less. In essence, Luna represents a validator’s mining power. However, in providing network security and validation, Luna holders and stakers are exposed to the price risks associated with the asset. This is because the Terra protocol readily exchanges Terra stablecoins for Luna at their determined exchange rate to maintain the peg. When demand is high and prices are above the peg, it will sell stablecoins for Luna. When demand is low and prices are below the peg, it does the opposite. In this way, validators absorb the short-term volatility of the network. To compensate for this, validators are given rewards in the form of: i) staking rewards, ii) gas fees, iii) taxes, and iv) seigniorage rewards. Staking rewards are determined by the size of a validator’s stake and are structured to incentivize transaction volume increases. Gas fees and taxes are similar in that a small fee is imposed on all Terra transactions, distributed to validators on a pro-rata basis. Finally, seigniorage rewards are given to validators who participate in the Luna exchange rate oracle process. These rewards seek to create mining demand that is stable and evergreen throughout all economic conditions. If rewards are increasing, the protocol decreases network fees and seigniorage rewards, and vice versa. More information on Luna and its rewards can be found in Terra’s Docs website, as well as in its whitepaper. Alternatively, you can watch our video to learn about the Luna ecosystem.
Long
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
3