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Longtermanalysis

GOLD - Simple Trend Line AnalysisThis monthly gold chart demonstrates the beauty of using simple trend line for accurate technical analysis in long term chart, as the old sayings go "Simple is the best, Less is more." Gold is at the critical junction at the moment. It looks like it will have a breakout of the bullish flag formation ( the descending broadening wedge), or it will fail here and drop back to the nearest uptrend line. While monthly MACD indicates more consolidation that means gold could drop from here, a bullish monthly candle closed above the broadening wedge could possibly confirm the breakout otherwise. What do you think about gold's next move based on this chart ?
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by GOLDTREND-NET
2
Bitcoin: Alt Alt Pi Cycle Top Based On Diminishing ReturnsUnlike my previous Alternative Pi Cycle Top, I coded the multiplier (the # after close) to be multiplied by pi. Once I added a Pi Multiplier to the same moving averages as previous, I realized it then moved so that the 79 day MA (pi*25) x pi corresponded to the 2014 double peak, and following a 2x to the length of the moving average each market cycle gives you a historically accurate local top sell target. If you're looking at this, I encourage you to view my previously posted model. This is a slight alteration that seems to make it more accurate. This is pure speculation, and not to be trusted.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by mcbridei
NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 10/1/2021 SessionContract - CME_MINI:NQZ2021 - PR High: 14712.75 - PR Low: 14687.00 Evening Stats - Gap: = N/A - Session Open ATR: 220.88 - Volume: 57k - Open Int: 225k - Trend Grade: Neutral - From ATH: -7.0% (Rounded) Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as a range) - Long: 15819 - Mid: 15247 - Short: 14676 Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
CME_MINI:NQZ2021
by mv3trader5
BUY OPPORTUNITY GLD is a fund that reflects the price of gold . It has a direct correlation with the underlying. When the price of gold increases, that of the fund increases, while when the price of gold decreases, the price of the fund decreases. It is a highly protective asset that helps diversify portfolio risk. It has a long-term bullish statistical bias and is particularly tempting to place in a portfolio. By statistically analyzing the history of gold prices (1970 - today) we can consider ourselves in a position of extreme advantage at this time. Analyzing the past crises from 1974 (from the point of maximum to their minimum) to date, 6 major crashes are found for the gold market. The smallest reversal was 35% at the end of 1987, while the largest decrease in value was recorded starting from 1980, losing more than 70%, with an average drawndown of -47.5%. The ratio of drawdown to recovery period is around 1.5. Means that on average gold takes around 1.5 times the time it takes to recover value compared to the time it takes to lose it. Analyzing the declines that did not affect the trend reversal, we can see that in over 50 years of history, the declines that did not lead to trend reversals have had decreases in value that have never exceeded 30%. The price of gold has lost only about - 17% from its maximums, so for the moment we are well above the average level of historical reversal (-30%). Although the quantitative analysis in the past has an indicator of a probable trend reversal of the instrument in the future, the decrease in price from the maximums does not confirm the same direction (the price did not exceed -30% from the maximum reached in 2020), considering the situation extra ordinary (and still uncertain) for the world economy and the probability of new lockdowns, finding ourselves on a discount level of approximately -17% of the asset, I will proceed accordingly. Insertion of the asset class in the core department, finding the discount level interesting. Given past trends and the present period, gold will be positively affected in the event of continued uncertainty in the future economy. If the price should fall below the -30% level from the 2020 highs, we will proceed to close the position on the asset. Going up now considering the discount on prices brings us to an advantageous situation as it allows us to decrease the risk of our operation. If we assume that we are close to a minimum level and that the long-term is characterized by a strong upward statistical bias, combined with the fact that the global economic situation is still far from an official recovery and that the Fed will have to wait a little longer before raising rates, positioning on $GLD is an excellent medium / long term opportunity for part of the core structure of my portfolio. Let's analyze the data: - Standard Deviation 10Y = 0.99% - Standard Deviation 5Y = 0.85% - Standard Deviation 3Y = 0.90% The riskiness of the product decreased by about 10% from 2010 to today. - 5Y yield = + 5.54% - 3Y yield = + 12% - YTD yield = - 1% 3Y Expected Return: + 30% Max loss (with hedging): 5.60% Max portfolio loss (in the event that the outcome of this core transaction does not go according to estimates): % of equity to be dedicated to this operation: 10% of the total portfolio + 5% for any hedging = 15% of the total portfolio Risk - Return = 1: 5.35 Over time, three different situations can arise: A) Closing the long trade at a loss and closing the hedging in profit, then: - Potential loss% on the portfolio: - 0.57% B) Closing of the hedging at a loss and profit of the long operation, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 2.37% C) There is no need for the hedging strategy and the instrument meets expectations, then: - Potential gain% on the portfolio: + 3% Remember that this is my market vision and should not be interpreted in any way as an investment advice!
AMEX:GLDLong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
XAUUSD Long Term Analysis (Weekly/Monthly Timeframe)If you like this idea, like it and follow me for more. Colour key: Blue = Monthly, Pink = Weekly As you can see, I've drawn out some supply and demand (S&D) zones from the monthly timeframe, as well as key support and resistance (S&R) levels from the weekly timeframe. I've also drawn a wedge trendline pattern from the weekly. My long-term bias for gold is quite neutral, because i don't think we'll have a good idea of what direction it might go in until it breaks this wedge pattern either to the upside, or to the downside (represented by the arrows). However, for now, i think price may breakout of the trendline slightly to reach the monthly demand/buy zone, from which we will see price go up for a while. Then i see it moving up and down within the wedge until a breakthrough. I may post a short-term analysis later to show a more precise entry. Updates to follow, follow me for more.
FX:XAUUSD
by darbova
Gold Expected to Catch Bids Gold has just pushed down into our 1750 target area from the earlier post. Now we do expect to see some accumulation at this area before a mark up higher to our longterm projections. Wait and see how the accumulation phase plays out before trying to get in long, especially after the strong sell off we just experienced. - Price pushed back into our 1700 - 1800 zone where we expected to see some buying pressure after a nice mark down. - Flag pattern with 3 tops and 3 bottoms, expect this to break to the upside if we get a bounce off the this bottom support area. - Trend RSI has retraced back into the 50% area, wait to see if it begins to turn back up indicating trend is still in the green and upside will prevail.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheCaffeinatedTrader
1
Is it time for Value Stocks? Lumen Technologies case studyIn a market where most stock valuations have skyrocketed to Mars, Lumen Technologies is one of the bright exceptions, being perhaps one of the safest investments available, for the investor to sleep soundly at night. LUMN has great fundamentals and is a much underestimated VALUE STOCK, ready to change the declining trend of many years to rising. In an article he wrote a year ago, Jeff Storey, CEO of Lumen Technologies (rebranded CenturyLink), stated: ‘During the last century, telephone companies pioneered early networks by standing up poles and stringing phone wires across the nation. Today, the new pioneers are tech companies like CenturyLink who are standing up networks and stretching fiber across the globe—and in the process, making exciting technologies like 5G possible’. Lumen Technologies is an international facilities-based communications company engaged primarily in providing a broad array of integrated services to business and residential customers in over 60 countries. Lumen’s enterprise technology platform enables companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Lumen Technologies states that ‘Lumen is the fastest, most secure platform for next-gen business applications and data, integrating global network infrastructure, cloud connectivity, edge computing, connected security, voice, collaboration and enterprise-class services into a seamless experience’. Lumen is ranked No. 29 on Washington Technology's 2020 Top 100 list of federal government IT contractors. From a fundamental analysis point of view, LUMN with capitalization 12.54B (11.43 $/share), P/E 9.57, P/S 0.58, P/B 0.91, EV/EBITDA 5.27, Div. Yield 8.85%, Intrinsic Value 16 $, Buffetts Limit 18$, can be considered as a cheap stock. The only negative element is Debt to equity ratio which is 2.41. From a technical analysis point of view, LUMN’s monthly diagram shows that the stock is possibly in the process of trend changing. The three preceding years, while the stock reaching its bottom the volume rose to historical levels, which means that shares changed hands from retail to smart money. Also notice the break-up of the RSI declining trend line and the divergences that appeared. Next follows LUMN’s daily diagram. Notice that stock’s price is over 200d, 30d and 9d SMAs. Additionally, notice the consolidation and resistance zones and that the RSI is in high overbought zone, so the correction of prices or a short period of consolidation is possible. Next follows LUMN’s 30 minutes diagram. Notice that stock’s price is over 200(30m), 30(30m) and 9(30m) SMAs. Also notice the up trending channel and that prices are in the middle of the channel and the Bollinger Bands, while MACD and RSI are declining, indicating a possible pullback or more likely a consolidation in these levels, until reaching the channel’s lower trend line. Conclusively, I think no investor should ignore LUMN, because it is very likely to be A SUCCESS TURN TREND STORY that may give big gains in 2021 (and next years) with MINIMUM INVESTMENT RISK. Of course the stock is suitable not only for long term investors, but also for short and mid term traders as well. Finally, I encourage you not to lean on my analysis but to make your own research for the company before investing in LUMN.
NYSE:LUMNLong
by Gnothisafton
5
2020 trend : Halving, Trendlines and Logarithmic scale.Hello fellas, before we start over with this new chart work of bitcoin analysis, I would like to say Happy New Year of 2020 I hope we can be a better in every aspects of this coming year and if we do make a failure back at 2019, I would like to apologize for it too. So, let's get back to the point and because today is a very special day which we are approaching the beginning of 2020, I would like to share about my analysis for 2020, about every possibilities that may or may not occur in the market. First of all, I want to use the BITSTAMP chart because it provides more complete historical data comparing to the bitfinex. And I use the logarithmic scale to respond to skewness to large value of current bitcoin's price and to look at the multiplication factors. we can see from this method of scale, 2 important trend lines has occured. The first trend line is the white trend line, this is the trend line that has been formed since August 2012 when it acted as a resistance trend line at that time before it became the supporting trend line on August 2015. The second trend line is a support trend line that has been formed since July 2013 which I draw it with the yellow trend line. Beside all of this trend line, I try to look for the confluence zone that may have a strong probability to become the next support zone for bitcoin. From my perspective, I find 2 important zone for bitcoin's potential support in the future if THE PRICE BREAKS DOWN OF THE WHITE TREND LINE. The first zone is the $3300 region which will become the strongest support in this set up because it has an alignment with the yellow support trend line and the second support will be around $1000 region which became the top of resistance back at November 2013. and between this 2 support zone, I see a potential shadow support around the $1800 region to be a good place of consolidation. I'm fully aware of the next bitcoin halving will occur in 2020 which at previous events, the price always surged to the upside and make a huge rally to the upside. But, it's now totally different. bitcoin and cryptocurrency are in different era as of now because we see at current condition the derivatives trading is becoming an important role of current market conditions. This time might be different and this time I will bet that we might see a new floor between $3000 - $1000 region which will shock the entire crypto universe. Happy new year!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by julio24albert
Where Will The Bitcoin Bottom Be !?Welcome everybody, I hope you guys find something here you can use long term in your own trading. This is my long term BTC chart. It is pretty simple, I just want to sit and relax and wait for the bottom to be hit and formed. Then the fun part starts scoping cheap bitcoin and alt-coins for some fun 10-20x increases long term. Alt-coins follow btc most of the time unless they are extremely hyped for some reason in the short term. Remember, historically the later years bitcoin have been moving sideways for months after hitting the bottom. ( there may have been exceptions but I'm thinking the 2018 bear market primary - recent times ) So I assume that will be the case again. And nothing really points to it won't be like that this time. Some serious whales are needed to push the price up in 2019 compared to in like 2015. Not 1 whale...I dont believe such foolish idea.. I think a group/group think - of whales is needed to start pumping the price for the reversal to happen. And they will first do that when their bags are full of cheap btc/alt-coins. That is why we saw btc go sideways for months at the bottom at 3000-3500 ish usd. The whales are buying up slowly but surely every day. BTC Whale = Really rich person. Let's say 100 to 500 millions usd in their trading account. Those who can move the market and are professional traders by trade. They crush/out-class the retail amateur investor/trader. It is like playing football vs professional football players...it is not even fun hahaha. The chart pretty much explains itself. When we hit a green zone, we just sit and count the months. When we see a breakout over EMA 100 or 200 it is most likely time to buy in/last chance to buy in if you want maximum profits with minimum risk. = most possible profits long term. This was all for today. Have a nice day, Christmas and New Years Eve from here :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Confucius-The-Great
4
BTCUSD Ichimoku + EMA Ribbon! (MASSIVE)Don't miss out on this longer term analysis, which includes the Bitcoin Halving Events in 2012, 2016, and the upcoming 2020 (vertical lines in green). This is a combination of 2 main indicators: EMA Ribbon - We observe longer line in green (indicating sustained uptrend) vs red (indicating sustained downtrend). historically, the red portions are relatively short. In the last halving period (2012-2016) this bearish period lasted for approximately 13 months. In this period (2016-2020), it last for approximately 12 months. This is relatively accurate thus far, with a Bullish Ribbon Crossovers occurring right before testing the Senkou Span. Ichimoku - The Kumo Twist is the most indicative for projecting future price trends (28 time periods to be specific). We observe that the leading span seems to be printing a green cloud formation. As long as price action remains above this cloud, we can be sure that an uptrend is maintained. It remains to be seen if the price can break above the cloud. Do keep in mind 2 things: Firstly, price will always seek to return to its median. And in this case, we see that the price of BTC has extended a fair distance from the EMA Ribbon, hence the recent pullback, seeking to 'hug' the longer term EMA line (or the green line in this case). On this basis, the lowest support without failing the EMA would be approximately $6000. Secondly, be mindful that this is a longer term analysis, and should not be used for short term or intraday trading decisions. Hold on to your coins lads, for we may be in for a ride soon. LASTLY, the bullish period to bearish period ratio is about 3:1, so you may want to hold on to those hot potatoes instead of panic selling. :):)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by gingerbre4d
2
Ameican Stock Market Grand Supercyle, 9 Waves from 1789 to 2200s Unfortunately Tradingview doesn't have the complete historical chart of American stock market dating back to the 1830s or even 1790s, the age of Philadelphia "Board of Brokers". I'll try to explain briefly here: www.chartertrust.com 1790s to 1835: 1st Wave 1835 to 1842: 2nd Wave 1842 to 1929: 3rd Wave 1929 to 1932: 4th Wave Now is the important part: 1932 to now and the next 1-2 centuries: the GIGANTIC EXTENDED 5th Wave, which is comprised of 5 major waves, each similar in length to the previous 4 Waves. Therefore the gigantic bullish run from 18th century to 23rd century should be divided into 9 Waves, not just 5 Waves. Some people have worried that 2000 is the end of Wave 5 of Wave 5, possibly leading to unprecedented crashes which would never be regained in a couple of centuries, comparable to the Dark Ages after the collapse of Roman Empire. History proved them wrong, the only viable explanation is that this Wave 5 is super extended, and the Grand Supercycle starting in 18th century is better described as a 9 Wave structure. Therefore: 1932 to 2000: 5th Wave 2000 to 2009: 6th Wave correction 2009 to 2070s or 2090s: 7th Wave Late 21st century: 8th Wave correction Late 21st century to 2100s or 2200s: Final 9th Wave, with crazy inflation to pay for the expanding American Empire's always expanding bureaucracy, like what the Roman Emperors did. I put the Final end in the 2200s, assuming the future American Empire would have a similar lifespan to the ancient Roman Empire. If so, the American Empire would have its 3rd Century Crisis in the 2200s. Of course, with the modern society being much faster in many aspects, the future American Empire might start having big trouble earlier, possibly in the 2100s. I have to say this is not entirely fantasy, considering the rise of Donald Trump, some of his supporters being from the neoreactionary movement, and some of those neoreactionary people considering military dictatorship in the Roman fashion as a favorable alternative to Democracy. Of course they will take a long time to hold more political power, therefore I say the USA might only become a true caesarist or neoreactionary Empire in the end of 21st century, or the beginning of 22nd century, annexing Canada, Australia, the UK and some other countries. Back to the smaller picture, DJI has finished its Wave 4 correction of the Wave I of the 7th Wave, 50000 in 2022 or 2023 is a reasonable target for Wave 5 of Wave I. I put the end of Wave I at 2022 or 2023 according to Wave theory, and also the demographic cycle of USA. With the ever diminishing American birth rate and tightening of immigration intake and unfavorable trade conditions and the Artificial Intelligence bubble, Wave II might be some huge crashes in 2023 and 2024. I will elaborate more on this in the next article.
DJ:DJILong
by MarcusAu
STILL BULLISH! LONG TERM CHART OF BTC! RELAX, I HAVE PROOF!Hello everyone! I have a fresh, juicy idea straight from the trees, its even greater than all my previous posts put together, and I mean it. However, I agree its tiresome to read, and I don't want every post to be like this, but this one is an exception because I have something really important to say. As you know I have a habit of writing very long posts, I have too many thoughts in my mind, and I usually jam them all into 1 post, which is not good for you guys, so what I'll do in the future is write each idea separately and focus straight to the point. This post will be looking at the entire history of BTC, from start to finish. We'll be looking at this chart from a birds eye view to truly understand the big picture of BTC. The future is bright and awaits us with many more phenomenal things to come, its exciting times, I can't stress that enough. TECHNICAL POINTS For reference, here's the legend for my chart: Blue lines = Long term support & resistance Pink lines = Short term support & resistance Green patch = Bull market Red patch = Bear market Grey patch = Consolidation phase Purple dotted line = BTC halvings Black line = DNM Support What you're seeing is a long term chart of BTC, I changed the view to log instead of auto, with this change we can clearly see that there is a massive yet gradual uptrend. We're bouncing off trend line supports and resistances on the weekly, the entire chart is going on an uptrend. If you look at the RSI, its telling us the same exact story. I don't see anything going to 0 here. It can only go up, there's literally no indicator saying that we're heading down, this is why I'm extremely confident, if anyone tells you otherwise, ask them for proof, which they probably don't have, because they're most likely "when moon lambo kids" who don't understand a thing about markets. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but if you disagree with me, then by all means feel free to challenge my idea, I'm always open to a civilised conversation, write what you guys think in the comments. MARKET CYCLES The entire history of BTC looks astounding, and it only gets better from here. If you just look at the chart, you can see patterns that are very repetitive and predicatable, in a very good way. What you're seeing is just the beginning of BTC. Just like any market, BTC goes through cycles, we're currently on the 4th cycle, and its going to do the same thing as before. You see, every cycle goes through 3 stages, the grey stage, green stage, and red stage. If you look at very start of the chart, BTC starts off as grey, which is known as the consolidation stage, its going through a build up moment. After the grey stage, the price gradually goes up, and transitions to the green stage, thus starting a bull run. Once it reaches an all time high, it will create a resistance. The price will then pull back, cooling down from ATH and then begin its next phase, the bear market, also known as the red stage. The red stage is the end of every cycle. So it goes grey, green, and red, and it repeats itself in that sequence, just like traffic lights, think of the market cycles as traffic lights. Its done the same thing 3 times in the past 10 years, we're currently in the 4th cycle as mentioned previously. As of today, we're still in the grey stage, and according to my calculations, the grey stage will end at around October, Q4. Once October ends, we will see new highs, the market sentiment will change and we'll see a bull market emerging, this is the proof I'm talking about. You have to ask yourself, name me one bear market that wasn't followed by a bull market? FUNDAMENTAL POINTS To spice up my analysis, I'm going to talk about the fundamental side of things. You see, the purple dotted lines in the chart shows the date of the BTC halvings, every time there's a halving, a bull run triggers, fundamentally. Mining rewards get halved every 4 years, that means supply becomes low and scarce, causing the demand to increase, when demand increases, price increases. The coin is hard coded in the system to make itself explode every 4 years. There's one more fundamental point I want to make, its about the black line. Now, say what you want about bitcoin but what I'm about to tell you is a hard cold fact, there's no denying this. BTC's history is infamous. Cyber criminals used BTC to buy and sell drugs, as well as other illegal goods and services back in the early days of silk road, and is still being used to this very day except operated with a different marketplace. With that said, 5% of the total market cap of BTC is used for the dark net markets. BTC's dominance is currently $93,639,254,464, and 5% of that is $4,681,962,723, if you divide by the circulating supply, you get 5% of the current price. For reference, Here's my formula: (BTC Dominance * 0.05) / (Circulating Supply) = Price of BTC in the Dark Net Economy This is where the black line support comes from, when people say BTC is going to 0, they have absolutely no clue, its hilarious, they're just speaking from emotion with no solid evidence. Its literally impossible for it go to 0 when there's an underground economy happening right under our noses. If bitcoin magically dies, criminals will still use it with or without you, thus creating that black line for themselves. The Dark Net has been around for a very long time, good luck trying to take it down, because the FBI can't do it either. So there you have it, my TA and FA in one post. I place my bets on October, thats the timeframe I see when we transition into a bull market, I can't really put a price tag on it now but I know the next bull market is going to be insane, like literally mentally insane. The facts and figures are all there, its up to you to guess what you want the price to be, and it doesn't really matter because we're all going to be rich either way. Thank you for your time ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fantastic day! Twitter: @cyber_stocks Discord: CyberStocks#9378 Join my favourite community on discord: discord.gg Feel free to support me, any help is appreciated. All funds will directly support my personal finances, and most importantly, my mission of building an online brand :) BTC Donations: 1AuZiofHSqM5gV1ttxUddNovDhEtHgMUgA
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
STILL BULLISH 2019! LONG TERM CHART OF BTC! RELAX, I HAVE PROOF!Hello everyone! I have a fresh, juicy idea straight from the trees, its even greater than all my previous posts put together, and I mean it. However, I agree its tiresome to read, and I don't want every post to be like this, but this one is an exception because I have something really important to say. As you know I have a habit of writing very long posts, I have too many thoughts in my mind, and I usually jam them all into 1 post, which is not good for you guys, so what I'll do in the future is write each idea separately and focus straight to the point. This post will be looking at the entire history of BTC, from start to finish. We'll be looking at this chart from a birds eye view to truly understand the big picture of BTC. The future is bright and awaits us with many more phenomenal things to come, its exciting times, I can't stress that enough. TECHNICAL POINTS For reference, here's the legend for my chart: Blue lines = Long term support & resistance Pink lines = Short term support & resistance Green patch = Bull market Red patch = Bear market Grey patch = Consolidation phase Purple dotted line = BTC halvings Black line = DNM Support What you're seeing is a long term chart of BTC, I changed the view to log instead of auto, with this change we can clearly see that there is a massive yet gradual uptrend. We're bouncing off trend line supports and resistances on the weekly, the entire chart is going on an uptrend. If you look at the RSI, its telling us the same exact story. I don't see anything going to 0 here. It can only go up, there's literally no indicator saying that we're heading down, this is why I'm extremely confident, if anyone tells you otherwise, ask them for proof, which they probably don't have, because they're most likely "when moon lambo kids" who don't understand a thing about markets. I'm not saying I'm 100% right, but if you disagree with me, then by all means feel free to challenge my idea, I'm always open to a civilised conversation, write what you guys think in the comments. MARKET CYCLES The entire history of BTC looks astounding, and it only gets better from here. If you just look at the chart, you can see patterns that are very repetitive and predicatable, in a very good way. What you're seeing is just the beginning of BTC. Just like any market, BTC goes through cycles, we're currently on the 4th cycle, and its going to do the same thing as before. You see, every cycle goes through 3 stages, the grey stage, green stage, and red stage. If you look at very start of the chart, BTC starts off as grey, which is known as the consolidation stage, its going through a build up moment. After the grey stage, the price gradually goes up, and transitions to the green stage, thus starting a bull run. Once it reaches an all time high, it will create a resistance. The price will then pull back, cooling down from ATH and then begin its next phase, the bear market, also known as the red stage. The red stage is the end of every cycle. So it goes grey, green, and red, and it repeats itself in that sequence, just like traffic lights, think of the market cycles as traffic lights. Its done the same thing 3 times in the past 10 years, we're currently in the 4th cycle as mentioned previously. As of today, we're still in the grey stage, and according to my calculations, the grey stage will end at around October, Q4. Once October ends, we will see new highs, the market sentiment will change and we'll see a bull market emerging, this is the proof I'm talking about. You have to ask yourself, name me one bear market that wasn't followed by a bull market? FUNDAMENTAL POINTS To spice up my analysis, I'm going to talk about the fundamental side of things. You see, the purple dotted lines in the chart shows the date of the BTC halvings, every time there's a halving, a bull run triggers, fundamentally. Mining rewards get halved every 4 years, that means supply becomes low and scarce, causing the demand to increase, when demand increases, price increases. The coin is hard coded in the system to make itself explode every 4 years. There's one more fundamental point I want to make, its about the black line. Now, say what you want about bitcoin but what I'm about to tell you is a hard cold fact, there's no denying this. BTC's history is infamous. Cyber criminals used BTC to buy and sell drugs, as well as other illegal goods and services back in the early days of silk road, and is still being used to this very day except operated with a different marketplace. With that said, 5% of the total market cap of BTC is used for the dark net markets. BTC's dominance is currently $93,639,254,464, and 5% of that is $4,681,962,723, if you divide that by the circulating supply, you get 5% of the current price. For reference, Here's my formula: (BTC Dominance * 0.05) / (Circulating Supply) = Price of BTC in the Dark Net Economy This is where the black line support comes from, and its price is sitting on a support line of $264, when people say BTC is going to 0, they have absolutely no clue, its hilarious, they're just speaking from emotion with no solid evidence. Its literally impossible for it go to 0 when there's an underground economy happening right under our noses. If bitcoin magically dies, criminals will still use it with or without you, thus creating that black line for themselves. The Dark Net has been around for a very long time, good luck trying to take it down, because the FBI can't do it either. So there you have it, my TA and FA in one post. I place my bets on October, thats the timeframe I see when we transition into a bull market, I can't really put a price tag on it now but I know the next bull market is going to be insane, like literally mentally insane. The facts and figures are all there, its up to you to guess what you want the price to be, and it doesn't really matter because we're all going to be rich either way. Thank you for your time ladies and gentlemen, I wish you all a fantastic day! Twitter: @cyber_stocks Discord: CyberStocks#9378 Join my favourite community on discord: discord.gg Feel free to support me, any help is appreciated. All funds will directly support my personal finances, and most importantly, my mission of building an online brand :) BTC Donations: 1AuZiofHSqM5gV1ttxUddNovDhEtHgMUgA
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CyberStocks
2
Bitcoin Elliot wave analysis (Monthly outlook)In the chart I drove Elliot wave count on Monthly timeframe. If wave count turns out to be correct, we might be in wave 4 at the moment. Strong support could be seen only at 1200-1400$ range. If you look closely, we are forming U shape temporary bottom. Looking at MACD (-777.014) we might also see it bottoming out. Looking from psychological perspective it would also make sense to have a huge swing in BTC price action. If we indeed are slowly climbing towards 6k(ish), Fear of missing out would kick in and a lot of bulls could be trapped on the way up. Moreover, we would have enough energy to pierce through 2018 December low and land on Monthly support, which could be seen in chart. I know it's a long way to go and we need to brake many levels before we could see 5800-6100$ Anyway, this is my take on Monthly Bitcoin price action. Trade safely, good luck! BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Patrikas10
2
SP500 at end of growth? huge collapse to come? Long term vision When I fit the chart in the Fibonacci sequence, I conclude that it exactly fits in the sequence as how I show it here and as how my experience has learned me that charts behave concerning the Fibonacci sequence. - The price went up from '0' to 700 points between 1980 and 1996 = Fibonacci 0% to 78,6% - Than the price went further to 1200 points between 1996 and 2012 = Fibonacci 78,6% to 61,8% - The growth continues further to 1600 points between 2012 and 2013 = Fibonacci 61,8% to 50% - The growth continues further to 1900 points between 2013 and 2014 = Fibonacci 50% to 38,2% - The growth continues further to 2300 points between 2014 and 2017 = Fibonacci 38,2% to 23,6% - And the price broke 23,6% so it will continue rising till the sequence has ended!! and that is 3000 points! > What will happen when 3000 points is reached? There are two options: 1: The price keeps on rising. Than potential = 4800 points ! 2: The price collabs and retraces. Than potential = to fall back to 2300 / 1900 / 1600 / 1200 / 700 TARGET 1 NOW: 3000 points and take profit. So, short- term is LONG! THAN WAIT THAN MAKE A NEW PLAN: LONG OR SHORT for the long- term Thank you for following and Succes with trading ! Richard from Rich.Exclusive.Trading
FX:SPX500
by Rich_Exclusive_Trading
How deep are we going? I think deeper than many expect...I have now been thinking since the 12th that a retest of that Marabozu was needed before we could move higher. I did not expect to go as high, and I am highly suspicious of the neck-breaking pace of sentiment change in the space. Too many loudly bullish peeps out there for my liking, and this is an indicator as good as any other so I keep thinking this could turn into a lower low if the bears have it, and judging by the low volumes there are a lot of people waiting or hodling. I noticed today that the daily RSI has once more dropped below 60 which was a level we had failed to pierce since the 20th of Dec until this latest rise. This might signal a continuation of the downtrend. The red area is the potential neckline of a H&S that would provide some symmetry and the outcome of that could result in either a retrace to the 0.5 fib of the recent leg up from the lows or a bounce back above $10k. However, if we break down below that with force, we could continue to the pink box which would go some way to retracing that Marabuzo clearing the 0.236 fib and touching the long-term trendline in place since Jul 2017 on a linear scale. This would provide us with a stronger platform to punch through the $10k barrier. I am acutely aware of the parallels with the past and this scenario would provide an amazing launching pad to repea the 2013/14 pattern so we can head for higher highs before retracing all the way to the bottom trend line again. The bearish case here is that we are retracing to the low trendline before we can reach ATHs again which is potentially $4,500.
by OlayaR