Trend continuation of SEIIt looks like Sei is in the process of a mean reversion trend continuation. The crypto market is looking bullish. Let's see if the trend goes on. This could be an short term entry for crypto traders.
Liquidity
Gold Daily update 26.09.24Do you see the triangle?
I am still bullish, but because of the structure gold could stuck for a while in the price area.
Unlock Trading Success with These Proven Chart PatternsTechnical Analysis of the Trade:
The chart you provided highlights several patterns and levels, which I'll break down into different components for a clear analysis:
1. Market Structure:
Ascending Channel:
The price is moving within an upward-sloping channel, indicating that the market is in a bullish structure. An ascending channel like this represents a controlled trend higher with occasional corrections, providing potential buying opportunities on pullbacks to the lower boundary of the channel.
Trade Implication: As long as price remains within this channel, the overall bias is bullish. A break below the channel, however, would signal a shift in momentum, suggesting a potential sell-off.
2. Bull Flags:
Bull Flag 1 (Lower on the chart):
This flag formed after a strong upward move, followed by a tight consolidation, which is a classic bullish continuation pattern. The breakout from this flag has already occurred, leading to a further upward push.
Bull Flag 2 (Upper on the chart):
Similar to the previous one, this bull flag formed after another sharp move up, indicating a potential continuation. The price is currently in the process of consolidating in this flag, which makes this an area of interest for a potential entry on a breakout.
Trade Implication : Both flags suggest that the market is in a bullish phase. You could consider entering on a breakout above the upper bull flag, aiming for continuation to the upside.
3. Support/Resistance Zones:
1-Hour Liquidity Zones (LQZ):
The chart shows two 1-hour liquidity zones:
Upper LQZ (Around 2660): Price is consolidating just below this area. This zone could act as short-term resistance but would be a strong area for a breakout and continuation move higher.
Lower LQZ (Around 2640): Should the price reject from the upper bull flag, this area is the next potential support zone where price could find liquidity and buyers might step back in.
4-Hour Liquidity Zone (Around 2622): This lower level is a major support area. If price retraces significantly, this could be a high-probability area for a reversal or continuation of the overall bullish trend.
Trade Implication: If the price breaks above the 1-hour LQZ (Upper), it could trigger a bullish continuation. If rejected, you might look for a retracement back to the lower LQZ or even the 4-hour LQZ for a potential buying opportunity.
4. Pattern Confirmation & Confluences:
Multi-Touch Confirmation:
The price has interacted with significant levels multiple times (ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones), strengthening the idea that these levels are respected by the market. This gives added confidence in the patterns you are trading off of, such as bull flags and support levels.
Trinity Rule:
Before entering a trade, ensure you have at least three confluences. In this case, potential confluences include:
Price staying within the ascending channel.
Bull flag formation at the current level.
Proximity to key liquidity zones.
With these three factors, you can confidently look for a continuation to the upside.
5. Price Action Signals:
Correction vs. Impulse:
If the market continues to move upwards impulsively, it supports the bullish continuation thesis. However, if it begins to correct, expect a pullback towards the lower boundaries of the liquidity zones or the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
Trade Implication: If you see a sharp impulse (breakout of the upper bull flag), it could be a signal to enter long positions, while a slow corrective move might indicate waiting for a better entry lower.
6. Risk Management:
Stop Placement:
Place your stop loss below the lower boundary of the second bull flag or below the most recent swing low. For a safer trade, consider setting the stop just below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640), where price may likely find support.
Trade Implication: This gives the trade room to breathe while protecting against a deeper pullback.
Take Profit:
Based on the bullish pattern, your first take profit should be just above the upper 1-hour LQZ around 2660, with the next take profit near the next liquidity zone or potential resistance levels further up.
7. Probable Scenarios:
Bullish Scenario: If price breaks above the upper 1-hour LQZ and the current bull flag, it could rally towards the next significant resistance level (around 2670-2680).
Bearish Scenario : If price rejects from the upper bull flag and falls below the lower 1-hour LQZ, it could retrace to the 4-hour LQZ around 2620. This area would then offer a high-probability long entry.
Summary of the Trade:
Bias: Bullish (based on the ascending channel, bull flags, and liquidity zones).
Entry Strategy:
Enter on a breakout above the upper bull flag, with the price moving above 2660.
Alternatively, if the price retraces, enter near the 2640 (lower 1-hour LQZ) or 2622 (4-hour LQZ).
Stop Loss: Below the lower 1-hour LQZ (2640) or the recent swing low within the bull flag consolidation.
Take Profit: Around 2670-2680 (based on the next potential resistance and liquidity zones).
NVIDIA (NVDA) - Bullish Momentum Fueled by AI RevolutionKey Fundamentals Supporting Bullish Bias:
1. Surging demand for AI chips driving record-breaking revenue growth
2. Launch of next-gen Blackwell architecture expected to outperform current offerings
3. Expanding market share in data center and cloud computing sectors
4. Strong cash flow and $50 billion share buyback program announced
Utilizing Probabilities for Long Positions:
As a trader, I'm leveraging probabilistic analysis to optimize my long entries on NVIDIA.
By combining fundamental analysis with probabilistic technical analysis, I aim to capitalize on NVIDIA's bullish potential while managing risk effectively.
12M:
2W:
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What's your take on using probabilities in trading? Share your thoughts and experiences in the comments below! Let's discuss how this approach can enhance our trading strategies.
Have a perfect trading week! 🚀
Navigating BTCUSD: A Data-Driven Approach to Bullish TradingI have a bullish outlook on BTCUSD, and here are a few key reasons supporting this view:
1. Political Changes: Recent shifts in the U.S. political scene may lead to more favorable regulations for cryptocurrencies.
2. Economic Conditions: The economy seems to be stabilizing, with inflation decreasing and growth continuing.
3. Institutional Interest: Big investors are showing renewed interest in Bitcoin, which is a positive sign for the market.
To get into long positions on BTCUSD, I’m using a strategy based on probabilities.
By using this approach, I aim to make smart, data-driven decisions in the exciting world of Bitcoin trading.
1D:
1H:
Please feel free to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments below!
Let’s learn from each other and navigate this exciting market together!
Bearish on TONUSD: 58% to 97% Probability of Hitting TP1!Toncoin (TON) is currently facing several bearish pressures in the market:
Key Fundamentals
- Declining trading volume indicates waning investor interest
- Price action below key EMA levels (20-day, 50-day, and 100-day) reinforces bearish sentiment
- Recent completion of a Death Cross on the daily timeframe, the first since May 2023, suggests potential for further downside
- Broader cryptocurrency market uncertainty and regulatory concerns are affecting altcoins like TON
I'm employing probability-based analysis on my charts to strategically enter short positions on TONUSD.
3D:
Hourly timeframes:
Please feel free to share your ideas and thoughts!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCEToday, I'm focusing on a potential sell opportunity in XAU/USD. The recent price action indicates that gold may be facing resistance around the $2640 level, where it has struggled to maintain upward momentum. Additionally, with rising interest rates and a strengthening U.S. dollar, market sentiment seems to be shifting towards bearish for gold. Technical indicators, such as the MACD, are showing signs of divergence, suggesting a possible downward trend. If the price breaks below key support levels around $2624, it could trigger further selling pressure. I'm prepared to enter a short position if these conditions align, looking to capitalize on a potential decline in gold prices.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
# GOLD 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
Flush of $62k liquidation of BitcoinWatch a quick drop on BTC today! We got many liquidations there. This would also be a 4hr mean reversion!
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE / PRICE ACTIONIn this analysis we are focusing on 30M time frame for XAUUSD. As we know that gold has manage to create a new all time high and the market structure was strongly bullish. So here I'm using simple support and resistance concept along with price action to find out the key levels. And also we are using Fib. Retracement tool to finding a retracement key levels. If market price break the consolidation zone toward upside then we look for buy. But If market price break the consolidation zone toward downside then we look for sell. Any step can be taken after confirmation. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
# GOLD 30M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Last Leg upwards for AAVE?This idea shows the formation of a top at AAVE. It's still a long move because currently it looks like we are doing a mean reversion. Let's see if the EMA50 holds on the 1 hour time frame and if we could see higher prices.
GBPAUD Bullish It's in bullish mode because:
-Brook down trend
-Liquidity taken
-Dos not touch the lower channel line
Bearish scenario for the weekThis is the bearish scenario for the week. We have two clusters of liquidity. One at GETTEX:64K and at $65k. I expect a sweep of the previous FWB:65K highs and then a reversal if we turn into an correction.
Market Insights: Why Now is the Time to Go Long on SPX500USDThe S&P 500 continues to show resilience, and my overall bias remains bullish. Several key fundamentals support this outlook:
1. Cooling inflation: Recent data suggests inflation is moderating, potentially easing pressure on the Federal Reserve.
2. Strong labor market: Unemployment remains low, supporting consumer spending and economic stability.
3. Technological advancements: Ongoing AI and tech innovations are driving productivity and growth across sectors.
4. Corporate earnings resilience: Many companies are adapting well to the current economic environment, maintaining profitability.
To capitalize on this bullish trend while managing risk, I'm utilizing probabilities in my chart analysis to identify optimal entry points for long positions.
12M:
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I’d love to hear your thoughts on this trade idea! What are your views on SPX500USD? Feel free to share your insights and opinions below!
How To Trade Off Liquidity Levels Following A Structure BreakoutGrasping how to trade around liquidity levels is crucial. The fundamentals of technical analysis revolve around identifying and leveraging these points.
One common mistake that new traders make is not choosing the right price levels for trades. This can lead to inadequate risk-reward setups and inconsistency in trading results.
What Are Liquidity Levels?
For large institutions and traders needing to execute substantial orders, locating sufficient liquidity is vital. A market’s liquidity significantly influences price volatility. When major players enter the market, they aim to achieve the best possible prices. However, due to the size of their orders, they need ample counter-orders to fill their trades while minimizing slippage. If a trader attempts to enter a position in a low-liquidity area, the resulting volatility can negatively impact their average entry price. Conversely, entering at a high-liquidity level usually means less price fluctuation, leading to a more favorable average price.
So, where can you find these liquidity levels? Look at where stop-loss orders are likely placed. This is where the concept of “stop-loss hunting” comes from—large players need liquidity to accumulate significant positions, which makes these areas of interest since they help reduce slippage.
A liquidity level arises from an initial imbalance in supply and demand, forming what we know as swing highs or lows. As more traders take positions, these levels become historical reference points for placing stops. When these levels are revisited, a decision point occurs, leading to either a breakout or a reversal.
A useful guideline is to watch for rejections that don’t reach a 50% retracement of the previous high or low, as this might indicate a lower-quality liquidity level. Strong rejections tend to indicate better chances of holding during retests. I personally look for rejections that result in a breakout into new highs or lows. Other factors, such as market conditions (risk-on/risk-off), broader market structure, and relevant economic data, also play a crucial role in assessing whether a level will hold.
Trading EUR/USD Using Liquidity Levels
To illustrate how to identify potential buying or selling opportunities based on liquidity levels, draw a horizontal line from the latest wick or swing high/low and extend it until it meets price again.
In the EUR/USD hourly chart example below, I selected a month’s worth of data, marking blue lines for liquidity levels that led to market structure breakouts (higher highs or lower lows) and red lines for levels where retests failed to break the structure. I recommend a strategy of targeting a 2:1 risk-reward ratio, setting stop-loss orders at half the size of the previous swing, moving to break even at 1:1.
By the end of this exercise, it should be clear that trading on liquidity levels with a breakout condition (blue lines) significantly increases your chances of success compared to trades that go against the prevailing market structure (red lines). If you focused solely on the blue levels, you might have experienced 6 winning trades and only 1 loss at a 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
By combining this approach with additional factors like aligning with higher timeframe cycles, considering fundamental analysis, and practicing disciplined risk management, you may find this strategy aligns with your trading style. I encourage you to explore this methodology through your own backtesting and see how it can enhance your trading arsenal.
LIQUIDITY SWEEP MODULEIn this analysis we are focusing on 1H time frame for GOLD. Today I'm looking for potential sell.
Let's see what happens when price comes to our zone and how price react in our zone. And which opportunity market will give us.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 1H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
15 min mean reversion into playWe are doing a mean reversion on the 15 min timeframe right now. This could be a good entry for the europe session today. The orderbook shows alot liquidity in the area at around $64.5k.
Unlock the Market's Hidden Rollercoaster: How to Ride the WavesXau/Usd Review with my trading personality
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, your trading style is likely driven by the excitement of quick market movements and the thrill of capturing early trades. You're probably someone who thrives on dynamic entries, enjoys the fast-paced action, and may have a more intuitive approach to the market. Let’s blend that with risk management to balance your adventurous spirit while still keeping a solid trading plan.
Technical Review for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
1. Key Levels to Watch:
2,595 (Resistance) and 2,580 (Support) are your playgrounds right now. You’re drawn to the thrill of what might happen at these zones.
If price pushes toward 2,595, you might feel an urge to jump in, expecting an immediate reaction. However, I encourage you to:
Embrace your adventurous nature but temper it with tactical precision.
Let the level hit and then wait for a quick confirmation (like a wick rejection or a mini pullback). This gives you both the excitement of early entry and higher probability without losing your edge.
Scenario: Price pushes toward 2,595. Here, your Risk Entry could be triggered:
Risk-Entry Plan:
Enter short at the first rejection of 2,595.
Set a tight stop-loss just above the liquidity zone (2,600), respecting your love for quick moves but protecting from being shaken out too soon.
Target the 2,580 area first, knowing the ride might be wild but worth it.
Why it suits you: It’s a quick decision, satisfying your need for speed, while the tight stop-loss aligns with managing risk. You get that thrill, but within guardrails.
2. Confirmation Entry – Building Momentum:
Confirmation Entries might feel a bit “slow” to you, but they can help ensure you stay in the game longer. Consider them when you want to ride bigger moves, not just quick scalp trades.
Scenario: If price breaks through 2,595, wait for a retest to confirm this zone is now support. Here’s where you bring in your whimsical nature: instead of waiting too long, spot a smaller timeframe pattern, like a bullish engulfing candle or a rejection wick, and go long.
Confirmation-Entry Plan:
Enter long at the retest of 2,595 after a clear rejection pattern. Think of it as waiting for the next loop on the rollercoaster — the bigger move is coming, and you want to be on board for it.
Set a slightly wider stop-loss, maybe under 2,580, to allow the trade to develop without getting knocked out early.
Aim for the next higher liquidity zones, like 2,600 or 2,615.
Why it suits you: This method still lets you catch the excitement of a momentum breakout, but the confirmation gives you more confidence. You still get the rush but with less risk of getting thrown out before the big move.
3. Patterns Within Patterns – Your Playground:
As a Whimsical Rollercoaster Enthusiast, you probably love when the market shows intricate patterns — they're like hidden rollercoaster tracks, revealing sudden twists and turns.
Scenario: If price breaks above 2,595, zoom into lower time frames and look for miniature patterns within the broader trend. You might find a bull flag within a larger ascending channel. Entering on these small corrective patterns can satisfy your need for fast-paced decision-making while riding the overall trend.
Plan:
Use these smaller patterns for quick entries. Set your stops just outside the pattern, and take profits quickly as the price breaks out.
Think of it as riding the small waves, but always looking for the bigger momentum move to follow.
Why it suits you: You’re jumping in on short-term opportunities while always keeping an eye on the next big move. This keeps you engaged and allows you to take action when you feel that burst of adrenaline without losing sight of the bigger picture.
4. Managing Whimsical Risk:
Stop-loss flexibility: As someone who enjoys spontaneity, a tight stop might feel restrictive but necessary. Here’s the compromise:
Set initial stops tight (like just above 2,595 if shorting), but allow yourself room to evolve the trade based on market action. If the trade moves in your favor, quickly move the stop to breakeven.
Mental Resilience: Losses will happen, but you need that mental discipline to jump back in without chasing every tick. Treat each trade like a separate rollercoaster ride — whether it’s a good or bad one, there’s always another one coming.
Use your intuition and excitement to recognize evolving setups. But keep a few rules in place to avoid the pitfalls of impulsivity (e.g., no more than 3 trades per day on a single idea to avoid over-trading).
5. Incorporating the Rule of Three:
For the rollercoaster trader, the Rule of Three is your ultimate guide. This rule asks you to identify at least three confirming factors before entering a trade:
Scenario: Price reaches 2,595:
You see a rejection (touch #1).
The lower time frame shows consolidation or a mini bear flag (touch #2).
Momentum begins to fade (touch #3).
Action: This triple confirmation allows you to short confidently, knowing you have the right mix of signals to back your bold entry.
Why it suits you: The Rule of Three still gives you the excitement of quickly entering trades but ensures they are high-probability setups. It prevents you from overtrading out of sheer excitement while still letting you capture those thrilling moves.
Summary Action Plan for a Whimsical Rollercoaster Trader:
Risk Entry: When you feel the market is ready to react at key levels (like 2,595), dive in! But do it smartly — use tight stop-losses and a quick decision-making process. Think of it as jumping onto the coaster right before it starts moving.
Confirmation Entry: Use this when you're looking for a bigger, smoother ride. Wait for the breakout-retest combo, then get in for the larger trend move. Stay patient here; it’s worth the wait.
Patterns within Patterns: Zoom into the mini rollercoasters inside the bigger structure. Catch the small waves but keep your eyes on the longer ride.
Trinity Rule : Ensure three factors align before entering. This rule keeps you disciplined while still embracing your whimsical nature.
The Global Liquidity Index is looking very interesting here.The GLI is looking very interesting at these levels. It's currently bouncing around within the Fibonacci retracement levels shown. Stocks and crypto usually perform better during times of increased liquidity for obvious reasons. Now that we are heading into a period where central banks around the world are propping up markets with freshly printed cash, we may see this index set a new high, which will be good for asset prices overall.
Good luck, and always use a stop loss!
AUDUSD: Bearish Breakout Ahead! 55.06% Chance to Hit My Target!The Australian Dollar faces several headwinds that support a bearish bias against the US Dollar:
1. China's economic slowdown is hurting demand for Australian exports.
2. The RBA has paused rate hikes while the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, potentially widening the interest rate gap.
3. Global economic uncertainties favor the safe-haven USD over the risk-sensitive AUD.
I'm using probability analysis on my charts to find good short entry points for AUD/USD.
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Feel free to comment below with your thoughts or questions!
Consolidation before the BOJ Policy Rate DecisionWe probably won't see much price action today even though rates were cut to 5% yesterday. Many market participants are bullish, but this feeling can quickly disappear if the Bank of Japan (BOJ) decides to raise rates again, creating a situation like the one on August 5th. We got some clusters of liquidation around ~$63k but we have alot more at <$58k to liquidate.
Gold daily update 19.09.24It seems that the news yesterday brought a reversal after liquidity grab. Also gold formed bearish manipulation.
Almost every time gold reverses after FOMC.
TRENDLINE AND ORDER BLOCKIn this analysis we are focus on 15 minute time frame for XAUUSD. Here I'm using trendline support and order block on the basis of SMC concept. Today I'm looking for a potential buy from the key level at 2580 - 2576. Let's delve deeper into these levels and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and risk to reward ratio.
# GOLD 15M Technical Analyze Expected Move.
Points of Interest on BITCOIN before FOMCI'm watching the price action closely today as we approach the CME gap at $61.5k.
We have not yet taken the previous high on the CME chart. The gap is still open a little bit. We've also accumulated some liquidity at about $57.2k. It is also wednesday, which is know for it's trend reversal.
