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SPY / SPXL - S&P 500 Analysis - Outlook$SPY / $SPXL 👀 – 08/15/2022| S&P 500 | #Future #Outlook 🎯 - 📸 🚨 📌 What’s good #PublicCommunity? Que es la qué hay corrillo? 📌 We’re currently impulsing within Wave 3 of the Intermediate Degree (in blue). Anticipated target before the corrective Wave 4 of the Intermediate Degree (in blue), is approximately within the range of 1.618 to 2.618 (extension), of Wave 1 of the same degree (in blue). 📌 Trading $SPXL : I am looking to take partials at the completion (or around 2.618%) and then go long again at the completion of corrective Wave 4, of the Intermediate Degree (in blue) and hold until the completion of Wave 1, of the Primary Degree (in black). 📌 Investing #LongTerm $SPY : I am looking to add onto my holdings at the completion of Wave 4, of the Intermediate Degree (in blue) and again at the completion of Wave 2, of the Primary Degree (in black). ✅ If you thought this was helpful or insightful: Follow, Like, or Share ✌🏾 #PublicCommunity 📈 To View or Save My Chart: ⚠️ This is not investment or financial advice; Anytime you enter the #markets, you fully accept the #implications at your own risk❗️ #longterm #learning #makingmoneymoves #invest #strength #buildandgrow #breakingnews #crypto #cryptowinter #ElliottWave #FedReserve #investmentidea #investmentopportunity #SPY #SPX #Stocks #Leverage #LeveragedEFT #EFTs
AMEX:SPYLong
by ElBichotedelosGraficos
5 BIG MISTAKES TRADERS MAKE!Hey traders, I've had the privilege to have been involved in trading, both retail trading and working within a prop firm for many years. The biggest benefit I get, is to work with so many different traders with so many different strategies, personalities, timeframes, assets, you name it. I've probably worked with a trader that trades it. Now, there's a few things that are extremely common in all traders, regardless of what or how they are trading. It's the same mistakes that keep making traders fail. So today, I'm going to explain what five of these mistakes are and how to avoid them. I will also discuss how to incorporate them to ensure that you don't get hit by the stone wall that many traders do. If you have any extra information to add, please do so in the comments. I look forward to hearing from you all. TRADING WITHOUT A PLAN This right here is the biggest one and this is usually for the early beginners or even strategy jumpers. You must have a plan. That is non negotiable if you ever want to see some kind of consistency in training. I can tell you from experience, both personally and with working with traders from firms, that the more in depth that plan is, the better chance of success. The same way you create a business plan before launching a new endeavor. The same way you create a game plan for your team before you go out and verse the opponent. The same way politicians plan out their PR campaigns before running for office. You must have a thorough trading plan. A plan can consist of a multitude of different things, from understanding what you're willing to lose, understanding overall position size, understanding your trading strategy, minimizing drawdowns, maximizing profits, the assets you are trading, the times you're going to be trading, how much time you actually going to be allocating to trading and setting up goals. A trading plan must be thorough, so you can not only track your progress, but when you start getting unmotivated or confused, you have something to look back on to realign you with where you are and where you want to be. My final advice with your trading plan is stick to it. You will have bad trading days. You will have bad trading weeks. You will have bad trading months. Stick to your plan. OVERTRADING We've all been there. It's the start of a trading session. We've opened two positions. They've both gone on to be fantastic winners. You're unstoppable. Nothing can possibly go wrong from this point. You have mastered the markets. You are the best trader the world has ever seen. So what do you do? You open another seven positions because it's just free money on the table. And what happens? All seven of those positions lose, wiping off your original profit and some. This is so common in beginner traders. It's that aspect of unpredictability that they forget about in the markets. Trading too much too soon is a serious issue and it needs to be worked on as soon as possible. I understand the excitement of being live in the markets, the excitement of the profits you could earn day today, but the reality of the situation is if your brand new. Trading too much is going to be a serious issue. What sitting back watching and not trading does is not only increases your patience, but also allows you to analyze the markets in a clearer state of mind, making your future decisions a whole level ahead. Add that into the plan, give yourself a maximum number of positions per day if you are new. Trust me, it's going to help you progress. FAILING TO CUT LOSSES I've spoken about this a lot, especially in one of my recent webinars. A lot of traders are taught the whole set an forget method, and I'm not a big fan of it, but in some circumstances I won't lie. Yes, it does work. But a lot of the time, these trade ideas that they're in there actually give massive warning signals prior to hitting the stop loss that they are going to do that. The trader could have cut those losses a lot shorter. Now don't even get me started on traders that don't use a stop loss. What I wanted to do really in this segment is dive into the emotional side of failing to cut a loss. It's true. I remember experiencing it early on my trading career, that feeling of when a trades going against you, but you did all the analysis, so it shouldn't be going against you. So what do you do? You hold on with hope and temptation that it will turn for the better. The reality of the situation is in very, very rarely does. It's a horrible feeling because some traders are prone to even giving those trades more room, adding to the position, moving there stop loss, removing their stop loss altogether. Everything you shouldn't be doing in the time that your analysis is going against you, most traders lean towards because they done all the research they needed to do and they cannot comprehend bring wrong. The best way to battle this feeling, if you've ever felt it or still to this day feel that urge, is going back to number one. Trading with a plan. Have a plan. Risk management plans are the greatest things ever. We can plan for the absolute worst so when it does come in and everyone's going manic everywhere, we know exactly what to do, where to be and how to position ourselves. This will help you learn to cut those losses. NOT UNDERSTANDING LEVERAGE The world changed times are changing. You can access any type of information or access pretty much any type of market you want at the click of a button by the glorious internet. Same goes with trading is probably how most of you have gotten here, or even just into trading as a whole. The thing is, we reach out to these brokers and we open accounts with small amounts of money and they offer us great deals like 300 hundred or even 500 to 1 leverage. That means with $1000 account, you can open $500,000 of currency. Now, the reality of the situation is most traders will never use all of that leverage. But as a result is that most trade is also wouldn't have experienced a no money call when opening a position, or perhaps a margin call, or a true understanding of when they put in 0.5 lots of EURUSD, what they are actually doing. Leverage is a great tool. Fantastic tool. When used correctly. Working at the firm, had so many traders reach out. They keep getting an error code. They say, "I can't open this position!? WHY!?!" and it's all because they don't have the margin requirements to actually open that position and it is alarming to see how many traders don't fully understand what leverages and margin is considering they have used it for years. When you open a position of 0.5 lots on a U.S. dollar currency pair, for example, UUSDJPY. You are opening a position size of $50,000. You have just entered a $50,000 position. That means you are actively managing $50,000 while you are in that position. Let that sink in. Now that's just a position of 0.5 lots. There is traders pit there trading 10-100 lots and it is just baffling to understand the amount of risk there actually taking in accordance to their account size. Do your research. Understand your position size and when you're doing your trading journal. Instead of doing lot sizes in your trading journal, I recommend you do actual position size, value. That will give you a much better understanding on the risk you undertake when you take positions and also if you can, lower your leverage. You don't need 500:1. BEING ABLE TO ACCEPT LOSSES Now this is a fun one and this is what I really wanted to chat about. Being able to accept losses can be one of the most damaging things a beginner trader can ever have, because what happens is they lose the value and respect that the market can take their money. Every market "guru" and every trading course out there tells you to remove emotion from the equation, accept that losses are gonna be a thing, and trade knowing that. Now most people go, "OK, let's do that." and surprisingly, they actually managed to pull it off. Which actually creates a bigger problem. They become reckless. They no longer care if there's a little bit of parameters different from their trading plan. They no longer care if there's key indicators that the trade idea is wrong because, "we're going to have losses. So what? This one might as well be one. If you're not in the market, you're not going to make money." they become reckless. Do not remove emotion from your trading. Incorporate emotion into your trading and once again this results back to the first tip. Trade. With. A. Plan. Traders, that is all for me today. These are five things that I've noticed in struggling traders which seemed to be a common recurrence. Thank you for your time. I hope you enjoy the read. As always, have a fantastic trading week. -Jordon Mellor
Education
by the5erstrading
14
a couple scenarios for critical resistancethere are a couple scenarios for the critical resistance weve just about come up to on the l nasdaq. i think were above pivot, and where we start out friday will define next weeks activity. if we hit that resistance sss moving average, and we fall beneath the pivot forming bearish divergence daily rsi i think were headed for daily consolidation. if we breech that first upper horizontal embedding bolinger bands and treating the crucial area as support i think were in for continuation until rsi comes out of overbought.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
some continuation followed by consolidative move in semissemiconductors are on an upward trajectory,and a sell the news event has marked new highs in 3x leveraged semiconductor bull etf SOXL. as long as we remain in this uptrend the market will have no trouble with a third drive to the upside, but during which i would be looking for signs of exhaustion, as some kind of daily topwick could form around rhe $20 area. if we get movement above this supply zone the chart will look more bullish, but closing the gap and pivoting to an hourly equillibrium in an overbought area rsi. that being said a higher supply could take a day or two so as long as sundays numbers are positive or negligible loss nq1! semiconductors should find a local extreme to the highs early or mid next week and consolidate. upper horizontals are stiff resistance, and lower horizontals are areas to be explored for short candidacy.
AMEX:SOXLLong
by cerealpatterns
Double whammy of demand contraction and political leverageSummary The semiconductor sector is expected to enter a difficult period with demand contraction due to recession and crypto winter. As the US government is increasing the effort to use semiconductors as a leverage to put pressure on China, companies in the sector might be forced to prioritize the national political agenda against profit and growth , which further amplifies the negative impact from slowing demand. Demand contraction The US economy officially entered a technical recession as the GDP figure announced this week unexpectedly shrank again by 0.9% , making a 2 quarters consecutive decline. Large employers such as Amazon are also announcing their layoff plan to better weather the worsening economic outlook. Companies downsizing will reduce the demand for office electronics such as laptops and work phones. Although the commonly reported U3 unemployment rate remains stable at 3.6%, the U6 unemployment rate has actually increased for 2 consecutive months from 6.6% to 7% . With states continuing to pair back the covid unemployment benefit, more people are forced to re-enter the job market which in some cases the pay are not even as good as the unemployment benefit they have been receiving. The reducing disposable income of the US consumers is likely to negatively impact the demand for goods, especially for the non-essential durable consumer product such as electronics. High food and energy prices also contribute to such change in spending allocation. Political leverage Semiconductor chips are one of the most critical building blocks for most electronic products. The new product trend such as electric vehicles further push up the demand for chips. To put it into perspective, a Ford Focus uses roughly 300 semiconductor chips, whereas the electric Mach-e utilizes almost 3,000 semiconductor chips. The US government has been using national security reasons to block companies from selling gears for fabricating advanced chips (<10nm) to China since the Trump era. This week, the Biden administration has notified equipment suppliers such as NASDAQ:KLAC and NASDAQ:LRCX that the restriction is further tightened to <14nm , and it will also cover fabrication plants run by non-Chinese companies such as NYSE:TSM in China. Semiconductors will continue serve as a tool to slow Chinese growth at the cost of industry profitability. Earlier this week the US Congress had passed the chips act and approved $52 billion in funding for domestic semiconductor manufacturing. While there is definitely a strategic necessity to rebuild the US fabrication ability given the political tension between China and Taiwan , the difficulty to establish a fabrication facility should not be underestimated, if you look at how hard even for Samsung to catch up TSM on defect rate especially for the <7nm advanced chips. For most semiconductor companies it is not just about the funding but also if there is a profitable way out for domestic production, or it is going to be a capital blackhole that keeps sucking investment without meaningful outcome. Technical discussion The US equity market is currently rebounding as rate expectation cooled off due to increasing risk of recession. S&P500 and Nasdaq100 have already broken through the 50 days moving average and are now challenging the Jun rebound peak. The 20 days moving average is also catching up and is about to sit on top of the 50 days moving average. In fact, the sustainability of this rebound will depend on how long can the 20 days stay above the 50 days moving average, as (1) upward pointing 20 days and 50 days moving average, with (2) 20 days higher than the 50 days moving average are the basic forms of a bull market. S&P500 NASDAQ100 In this regard, by comparing SOXX and QQQ, one can visualize the sector discount due to the double whammy discussed above. Although SOXX has also broken through the 50 days moving average, the 20 days moving average is still further away from the 50 days moving average , which makes it a better short candidate compared to QQQ for those who believe the recent uptrend is a bear rebound but not the beginning of a bull. Here are the levels SOXX trader should pay attention to: Downside Resistance 370 - 385: 20 days and 50 days moving average levels 326.7: Jul-05 52 weeks low 270-280: Post-covid bull breakout level in 2020-Jun Upside Resistance 433.99: Jun-02 rebound peak 455-465: 250 days moving average level 501.09: Mar-29 rebound peak While our view toward the semiconductor sector remains bearish, shorting too early in a rebound can be very costly to traders. It is recommended to scale in the position either when SOXX itself, or at least until the border markets show sign of momentum decline (e.g. reverse hammer candlestick pattern) Note: For traders who wish to trade leveraged ETF such as AMEX:SOXL (3x bullish) or AMEX:SOXS (3x bearish), it is still recommended to use the non leverage version SOXX for technical analysis purposes. As the daily 3x process sometimes will shift the resistance level and make the reading less accurate.
NASDAQ:SOXXShort
by geoffreyip523
nasdaq on the verge of breaking outthe nasdaq 100 is showing that it can reach for the highs, and is on the verge of breaking out above major resistance to levels not seen since early june. continuation seems likely, and i have critical levels of support and resistance marked out as horizontal lines where it may pause, or bounce. sss is green and qqe is long. if we get over one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal above, and if we break below one of these lines i would look to the next horizontal below.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns
Bitcoin Cash Huge Potential on 10X (1600%+)Here is Bitcoin Cash (BCHUSD), this is the same chart we shared a few weeks back. We are hitting the gas on this one as we see potential for massive growth. After the retrace that ended 13-July (Full moon), BCHUSD is now ready to grow. We are active with 10X of leverage. Disclaimer: Not for beginner, for experienced traders only. Leveraged trading is high risk and can result in liquidation. This is not financial advice. We are wishing huge profits and good luck. Namaste.
BITMEX:BCHUSD.PLong
by AlanSantana
9
vix coming to critical level of supportweve only seen this low in uvxy 3 times, they were all this year, and they all happened with broader markets in a downtrend. all im seeing right now is buys on uvxy, and if the selloff continues with multiple sectors like xlf, xlv, spy, qqq, iwm, and especially soxl hitting new lows of the day at the same time its almost a guarantee that vix pops once again at this level on the daily targeting the upper horizontal (high 13s/low 14s), and if the bounce continues with sector rotation occuring and consolidation forming in major indices this etf is headed for the lower horizontal (high 8s/low 9s).
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns
volatility coiling up for a spikeSVXY has printed an outside down day and this usually marks the top in inverse vix. that means vix is in for a spike as weve seen begin today. normally indices make headway when vix is at the lows, but vix has been popping with indices failing resistance pointing toward a false breakout in broader markets. if we fly higher in UVXY breaking fridays high id imagine were in for mid 13s, and if we close beneath that first lower horizontal i think were in for mid 12s.
CBOE:UVXY
by cerealpatterns
false break or trend changethe reversal pattern is in if we close above the key levels marked out. we have tested this sentiment a few times in the past month, but each time its proven resistive. if that pattern turns green and we close in a bullish pattern breaking out of this wedge to the upside daily id imagine were in for the upper horizontals, and if we stay with sss and qqe in the red treating this area as resistive id imagine it gets shorted back down to the lower horizontals. bulls really want to hold that orange line (high volume area), and bears want to move below it.
NASDAQ:TQQQ
by cerealpatterns