Learntotrade
Bitcoin - Oil and viruses don't mixLast week we were taken out of the trade by our stop losses, on my last post we talked about that if BTC dipped down to $8500 it needed to dip down quickly and move back up quicker otherwise momentum would be lost, we even had an $8200 buy order. What went wrong? We did have a dip down but it was very slow and the recovery was very slow as well and unconvincing. Combine these factors and you get a big red flag. Another warning signal was when price failed to go over the 50MA on the daily chart after trying for a couple of days. You have to take warnings like this seriously and accept when your trade has gone sideways. The very first warning signal was given by the 20MA on the daily chart last month on the 26th. What I want you all to understand is that price is not just going to melt down out thin air on you, warnings and red flags begin to pile up giving you enough time to make choices. Even if price is going up you'll know when things are about to go south. Last week Friday, the signals went out that this trade had come to an end, just a day later price started to drop.
On the weekly chart, you can see we have melted below the trendline if we close or stay below this line we will see a further drop.
WHATS NEXT?
As mentioned before now we begin to map out where to jump in again. As I did previously, the point is to catch it on key entry places on its way down until you nail the lowest safest entry point. This means you have to be patient and disciplined. Right now there are 3 places that we will talk about later. There is also one scenario that will create a perfect set up for alts which I've been looking forward to for a couple of years. If price continues to melt it will create the perfect conditions for this scenario to play out.
WHAT'S CAUSING THIS PRICE DROP
Market instability caused by two major events (Oil prices and the virus), BTC and consequently crypto, in general, were part of the Sunday sell-off. Oil dropped by an amazing amount (30%.) We also have a long week ahead in which we have to keep an eye on the Dow and Nasdaq to see if institutional money moves to safety some more. I would bet this is going to be a volatile week. The United States is completely unprepared and has no plan for the Coronavirus, this will create more market instability leading to bigger sell-offs. If the WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic it will create more instability.
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ONTUSD o.O1) It looks like ONT is holding support very well and a possible new trend line (Bottom yellow line) is forming off of this dip.
------ If stop losses are set around .65 (7%) the possible gains are up to around $1 (40%ish) which I would suggest of course to take gains on the way up. I like to take gains around whole numbers because its easier to remember the numbers.
------ All bets are off if it drops below the yellow resistance.
2) The top yellow resistance line is made from 7/23/18 to the second point on 6/24/19 down to the recent high on 2/10/20 on the weekly chart. (11mths,9mths,4mths?)
------- To me this is showing that the yellow support and resistance lines are forming a bull flag. These lines should intersect around 4/20/20 (lol 420) that is pretty soon given the last high was 8-9 months ago.
3) The top blue dotted line is made from the high on 2/15/20 and the high on 2/24/20, coincidentally on 3/2/20. (on the daily chart)
------- Now we are trading above the blue line :)
------- I think that this blue line is a very good indicator in our favor.
------- It also seems that the price is following the line possibly down to the yellow or blue resistances then spike up?
4) The bottom blue dotted line was made on the daily chart starting on 1/24 then the next point was on 2/27.
------- I don't have much to say about this line other than its useful to use on the shorter time frame lol.
5) This resistance also makes sense because we are close to the previous low around the end of Jan.
------- This is becoming a bull market ever since 2020 and I don't really see this losing steam any time soon. For the part of the market that is like me (Bulls) we really want to see the price have a low above the previous low. This even makes some bears become bulls because the trend will be very strong at that point.
6) Purple box is the a strong "support and resistance" on the monthly/weekly chart.
7) BTC has a VERY similiar situation with MUCH more volume. ONT has usually followed BTC and I think that trend is so set in stone at this point something major would have to happen for that trend to break.
------- Follow BTC if you want to trade this coin.
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Okay now that that's all done if you have any questions, need clarification, have a comment, or want charting/analysis advice please let me know.
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Bitcoin - Do I have your attention now?If you did not FOMO you are in great shape. Isn't it a great feeling when you let the trade come to you? We waited patiently until BTC came down to our buy point precisely (which was set a few weeks back.) You are now buying cheap and safe from those that bought as we were going up (due to bad advice), and from those that set old style trailing stop-losses. If you learned about stop losses from books that reference stock markets in the 1980's good luck, you'll be stuck in a hopeless strategy. Crypto moves differently therefore your strategies should be slightly different.
By now you can see the benefit of fixing your trading tempo, you are now buying low and will sell high once we get to the next designated sell point/resistance. On the last successful trade, you got to keep your profits because you sold at resistance and you will do so again next time. Now, let's hope for a further dip to our last key designated areas so we can tighten the screws on those without a proper stop-loss strategy. With this last move, we are going stop-loss hunting!
WHATS NEXT?
In the long term, we let the 50/200MA golden cross take effect and we let BTC run for a while. The next resistance point is around 14K, remember that we are expecting a further dip so do not sell if you see BTC going down. There is a lot of force telling us that in the long run, BTC is going up, and one indicator telling us that there will be one last temporary pullback, that indicator is the 3D chart, we don't know how far down we will go, but we did know it was going down, so we took advantage. Buying in small percentages in key places while going down is your best bet. Why? If BTC continues to go down after your main percentage hits, you have plenty of cash to buy in case it goes further down or up, with this strategy if BTC goes up you make money and if it goes down you make money.
HEADS UP
This next run will be good for Altcoins so you can't go wrong buying BTC is you have a large-cap portfolio and you will not go wrong if you buy alts if you have a small-cap portfolio.
If you are sick of losing money and you want to become a better trader PM me, I can help you. Crypto trading can either be a money pit or a piggy bank for you. What's the difference? Your trading style or lack of one.
A WORD TO THE WISE
Do not short any coin unless you are an intermediate or expert trader, you will lose your money.
Put your money at play only once you find a low-risk high reward entry.
Learn to chart and listen to fewer opinions.
VERY IMPORTANT: Hitting the "Like" button is like a tip, please don't forget to do so after reading, this is your way of thanking me for my time and so I thank you for yours.
THE TREND: Beginning an uptrend
THE OUTLOOK: Potential golden cross around the 18th
Let's Play with USDZAR Sell.I am looking forward to seeing a great sell on this pair after making the moves i anticipated and also respecting all my key area . Now it's time to see this fall pretty well to get us our reward . Trade Safe. Your comments will be appreciated . And incase you need to learn , i will be very much available . Have a pipful week people
USDCAD - 6 to 1 Win vs Risk Trade - LongHello all - DuncanForex here with another trade idea
With USD seeing short term strength on Forex pairs (not metals)
On the 5 minute chart - it has just completed a butterfly pattern and therefore the trade is live
I am looking for a 5 to 1 with a wide stop and 10 to 1 with a tight stop on the 5 minute chart.
On the 4 hour chart - it printed an bullish engulfing candle on the 24th Oct indicating a reversal is imminent.
Thanks for looking a the trade idea.
Find me on YouTube, Twitter and my website.
Safe trading
Duncan
GOLD 15 to 1 Long Trade - will it play out?Hello all DuncanForex here with another trade idea
I am hedging GOLD - I am currently short, however I am looking for it to potentially turn around and head higher as it is now near the dynamic support line (which was resistance) from the previous down trend.
If this does head higher - it could be a fast move.
I will watch accordingly
Find me on Twitter, YouTube and my website
thanks for looking
Safe Trading
Duncan
Draw perfect channelsDraw perfect channels using a quick hack.
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Don't invest what you can't afford to lose. This is not investment advice. Subjective view/report of a financial product only.
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LIVE EURNZD Long Position (275 Pip TP) This is my chart analysis behind the EURNZD long position I'm currently in. On the chart, you can see major confluence around the 1.73500 level, which is a key level.
We can see the pair break the support, then retest before continuing to go up. My exact entry was at 1.73547.
Although I don't rely heavily on indicators, all 3 of my indicators (2 MA & 1 EMA) show support right below my entry level.
I expect this pair to move the full 275 pips to my TP level at 1.76250, and possibly even higher than that.
To summarize: I entered this trade because a major resistance level was broken, then retested as support (1.73500). This retest was right after a large move to the upside, so I would consider that to be a "correction" phase, before a continuation to the upside, where I have my TP level. I have already taken partial profits (25% of my lot size) at 1.74500 (100 pips from entry).
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Hope this helped out!
Week 37/52. Trade #1 EURCAD, Perfect ButterflyThis overall needs more downside to me, but for now I like this look of this harmonic. Let it correct and around London session I will look to do something. Entered the other day and I will hold it, I am looking for another position. Current position should yield 320 pips.