NZDUSD belatedly breaks up after hawkish RBNZ, broad USD selloffNZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure.
Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations - seeing some gains at first but struggling to find momentum - but overall USD weakness offered fuel thereafter (with November FOMC meeting minutes at least somewhat helpful in pushing the Greenback lower, though its slide began before the news hit the wires).
Kiwi
NZDUSD Targeting A Test of 0.6300Technical & Trade View
NZDUSD
Trade View
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6050
Technicals
Primary support is .6050
Primary upside objective .6300
Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6210
Failure below .6030 opens a test of .5950
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Institutional Insights
Analysts at Credit Agricole note ‘The RBNZ’s aggressive tightening cycle will see NZ lead the rest of the G10 into an economic slowdown, and falling dairy prices on the back of a weak China economy are seeing the NZD underperform. The re-opening of the international border will be a positive for the coming 3M. Soft economic landings locally and internationally will improve the NZD’s prospects over the coming 6-12M’
NZDUSD .6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View
NZDUSD
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6000
.6164 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is at .6000
Primary pattern objective is .6240 Daily HVN
Acceptance above .6165 next pattern confirmation
Failure below .6000 opens a test of .5900
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
Notes
While the RBNZ led most other DM central banks in starting the cycle, JPMorgan economists expect the Bank to accelerate its hiking pace again to 75bp at the coming meeting after NZ CPI surprised significantly to the upside in 3Q22
Analysts at Credit Agricole believe the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening cycle will see NZ lead the rest of the G10 into an economic slowdown, and falling dairy prices on the back of a weak China economy are seeing the NZD underperform. The re-opening of the international border will be a positive for the coming 3M. Soft economic landings locally and internationally will improve the NZD’s prospects over the coming 6-12M.
AUThis was my analysis and resulting forecast a while back, and I appreciate that because I do not know this pair (Studied It). It has showed me that in order to understand it I cannot come with the same mentality as where my pairs I focus on everyday. So I take the lesson and add to my book of learning and sharpening
Consider .5963 Target Achieved, New Pattern EmergingTechnical & Trade View
NZDUSD
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .5738
Consider .5963 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging
Technicals
Primary support is at .5850
Primary pattern objective is .6164
Acceptance above .5965 next pattern confirmation
Failure below .58540 opens a test of .5738
20 Day VWAP bullish , 5 Day VWAP bullish
GBPNZD H&SI don't trade the Head and Shoulders patterns, but I have thrown one up there as it highlights the areas where other retail traders may be waiting for a signal. Obvious one would be the neck line break. I'd want to be short before price got there and then be looking to get out as the momentum sucked in more traders.
The other place to look would be above the right shoulder and head, and wait for price to go back up there and sweep some retail stops.
NZDUSD Targeting A Test of .5963Technical & Trade View
NZDUSD
Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .5800
Option Expiry:
Technicals
Primary support is at .5825
Primary pattern objective is .5963
Acceptance above .5875 next pattern confirmation
Failure below .5790 opens a test of .5710
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Higher prices on NZDUSD?Trade Idea: Buying NZDUSD
Reasoning: Looking for higher prices in the short term.
Entry Level: 0.5682
Take Profit Level: 0.5805
Stop Loss: 0.5644
Risk/Reward: 3.24:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Buying a pullback on GBPNZDTrade Idea: Buying GBPNZD
Reasoning: Intraday pullback to support
Entry Level: 1.9936
Take Profit Level: 2.0266
Stop Loss: 1.9849
Risk/Reward: 4.26:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Fading NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD
Reasoning: Fading NZDCAD
Entry Level: 0.7747
Take Profit Level: 0.7625
Stop Loss: 0.7767
Risk/Reward: 5.82:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
The Kiwi Is Finishing Five-Wave CycleHello traders, today we will talk about the Kiwi (NZDUSD) in which we see nice and clean Elliott wave development.
The Kiwi is trading bearish already for a while and looks like there's room for more weakness, at least for a short period of time. From Elliott wave perspective we can see it finishing a five-wave cycle within a potential wave C of Y, but as you can see subwave (5) is still missing and it can send the price even down to 0.55 - 0. 54 area before it finds the strong support.
So, while it's trading in the EW channel, be aware of more downside pressure this week, just keep in mind that it can be final leg down before we will see a recovery.
Bull/Bear level remains at wave (1) swing low, so bulls can be considered only when/if the price jumps back above 0.60 region.
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NZDCAD Long Trade SetupA bullish opportunity recently presented itself on the kiwi-loonie trading chart. This follows from the bullish engulfing candlestick pattern which printed just above the 0.79100 psychological level. A stop loss below the 0.79000 psychological level and a profit target anywhere between your entry and the swing high of 0.82534 could give you a reward-to-risk ratio as high as 7 or even higher. Be sure to size your position based on your trading account balance and apply other risk management measures before placing trades.
FX:NZDCAD
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Your FX Plug
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Looking for a contination lower on NZDCHFTrade Idea: Selling NZDCHF
Reasoning: Looking for a contination lower
Entry Level: 0.5879
Take Profit Level: 0.5756
Stop Loss: 0.5897
Risk/Reward: 5.87:1
Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Dollar reigns supremeNZDUSD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.6100 (stop at 0.6150)
Previous support located at 0.6000. Previous resistance located at 0.6050. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Further downside is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 0.5975 and 0.5950
Resistance: 0.6050 / 0.6100 / 0.6150
Support: 0.6000 / 0.5975 / 0.5950
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
No clear indication the downward is coming to an end on GBPNZDGBPNZD - Intraday - We look to Sell at 1.9000 (stop at 1.9100)
Previous support located at 1.8850. Previous resistance located at 1.8900. Trend line resistance is located at 1.9000. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a sell from current levels.
Our profit targets will be 1.8750 and 1.8700
Resistance: 1.8900 / 1.9000 / 1.9100
Support: 1.8850 / 1.8800 / 1.8750
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy.
Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'