Get started

Keyhiddenlevels

XAUUSD: Quarterly 'Time at Mode' decline can failI'm bullish for the most part, but we have risk in this zone. If we do break higher on close, and stay there, we could see a massive short squeeze rally in gold and silver. In the case of gold here, the target would be 1714.28, initially, but could evolve into a resumption of the long term advance in gold, so, I'd reccomend simply owning some physical gold, on top of any investments in miners, or funds like CEF and the like. These could be a good addition to any portfolio under the right circumstances, and a daily timeframe entry setup. We have to monitor the quarterly close here, which could give us further clues, about the direction of the trend. We could be seeing a reversal of the decline since the 2011 top, so, let's keep an eye on it and remain unbiased in our analysis, and acts. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
3
SPX: Monthly 'Time at Mode' analysisThe monthly 'Time at Mode' analysis of S&P500 -0.12% suggests we can top at just shy of the analysts' forecast for end of year closing price. This which would frustrate them to no end, and possibly make them give up and turn bearish , downgrade stocks/reduce the forecast target price, or even turn 100% bearish . That would give us the right elements for a bottom once again, at the end of this potential correction, after hitting our current target price, eventually triggering a new uptrend signal and forecast. If we do correct, and then hold the support as outlined on chart, we could have the scenario on chart, extending the upside to over 2700 by Quite a few assumptions involved, for now, but logical I'd say. The next couple months will confirm my thought process here, which is purely technical, but also based on Tim West's analysis and yearly forecast, which you can read in the related ideas section. Tim always has some amazing insights on the market. My game plan would involve shorting the market against my individual stock holdings, as my 'hedge', aiming to profit from market outperformance mostly in that case. And covering shorts on a retest of support. After February's close we will obtain more information about potential targets to validate the bullish momentum , which would aid us in finding the market top. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
FX:SPX500
by IvanLabrie
1
TSLA: Long term uptrend in motionI still think $TSLA will violently outperform the market, since we triggered a quarterly uptrend signal recently, and I expect it to rally to 3040, in the long term, but, right now we could form a sideways range, as the smart money accumulates buys, before going for the next batch of short squeezes. Shorts have been extremely stubborn in $TSLA, and continue to cling to their bearish fundamental views, despite being massively in the red. The short interest is 26%, and the days to cover, roughly 8-9 based on the average volume . TSLA 1.22% can still rally rapidly to 375, but, it'd be good to be careful and await further signals to add, like, seeing how earnings affect $TSLA in the coming months. In the long term, the stock has potential upside to 3040. Cheers, Ivan Labrie
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by IvanLabrie
16
AUDUSD: Update - Consolidating here will give us continuationIf AUDUSD is to hold here, and eventually break out, and cross the overhead resistance, we can see a massive rally take off, which you definitely don't want to miss. If you missed my previous entries, you may go long here, risking a drop under 0.7811. Keep risk to 0.5-1%. This is a swing trade setup. If you want, additionally, or perhaps if more conservative, you may use our monthly setup stop loss: 0.75248. Upside is significant, so don't miss this opportunity! Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
EURUSD: Potential bottom hereI'm hedging my USD longs with a long Euro trade here. I don't disclose the specific entry and stop loss here, I'll reserve that for my clients for now, but you can get an idea of what to expect. It might turn into a H&S type bottom signal if we rally back to the neck line. It'll be interesting to see, and it's also a good hedge against equity positions, not only USD longs. Tim West has outlined potential reasons for a turn in the dollar, in the KHL chatroom and his USDCAD short idea post, so make sure to check those out. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
5
VLKAY: 35% upside in the stock$VLKAY has triggered a monthly breakout from a massive accumulation base, and after a good pullback into earnings support, flashed a buy signal for us, in the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. Such an opportunity is not to be missed! Let's enter longs at market open gradually over 3 days, aiming to build a 14% position. The stop loss orders are not required, since we could manage risk with options in the long term. For now, entering the stocks position is more important, and the odds of holding this support are very high, due to both technical as well as fundamental variables. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
VLong
by IvanLabrie
NGAS: Keep an eye on support here$NGAS could resume the uptrend here, and might be an interesting setup if we get a bottoming pattern in the daily chart. I took a small risk aggressive long on Friday, and will monitor it to reenter if stopped, if this trade remains valid. Upside is significant, close to $5, in the long run, but it might a while to base around here firs, which would be a great thing to observe take place within the next 3 weeks. If for some reason we are to break support, we could see rapid fall to the low volume support level outlined in green. If we do test that, that'd be a low risk long opportunity, and also a do or die situation for bulls, so, don't hesitate on going long with a tight stop if that level is retested. In this timeframe on chart, I'd like to see the bar close above support, and form a smaller range bar, and eventually break a previous bar high, before rallying again. This can take the shape of a consolidation after a rapid spike in the daily, which would be great, since it would give us further low risk long opportunities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
FX:NGASLong
by IvanLabrie
8
GBPUSD: Waiting and watching closelyGBPUSD is really interesting here, with potential upside, together with the dollar, if Brexit ends up being a positive in the long term. It has a lot of shock value, and I'd like to play it like a contrarian once viable. Right now, I think we can have a repeat of the 2009 bottom, and a big sideways range, but first we could see a rapid short squeeze rally, and a retest of the Brexit day range, or even the top of that day's range. I'm looking to go long on dips, for the most part, and perhaps look to short EURGBP when viable, or long GBPCHF. If we do get this scenario, we could see a massive rally shortly after the Brexit votes are out of the way. Lots of potential volatility revolving around French elections and other developments in Europe as well, so I'm watching with keen interest. The daily chart has a downtrend and two potential targets, Range Movement is in a strong downtrend, but also suggests sentiment is at an extreme, in speculative bearishness, so, we could see a rapid squeeze of the shorts soon. I'm vigilant, and monitoring the daily developments to fade the extremes. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
13
USOIL: Hold longs, long term uptrend signal triggeredThe oil uptrend signal finally triggered here, after OPEC agreed to cut production accross the board today. As more details come out, we might see some kind of pullback, or not, but it's clear we have to hold our long positions for as long as possible. I'm trading the swings in the short term using $UCO, and aiming to capture the longer term trend with my $OXY and $TSLA holdings, as well as the CFD/Futures positions. Those might need to be managed more actively, taking profits, reentering, adding, trailing stops, due to short term volatility, rollovers, etc., but for now, I'm holding. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
OSUR: More long term picksThis one is one of Tim West's findings. After exhaustive technical analysis on my part, I noticed we had a great chance to enter right at the start of a quarterly rally in the stock, so I took the plunge recently, ahead of earnings, at 8.87. I reduced my position to 3%, down from 13% to book some profit and in case we get a dip to add back to longs. I did swap some of it for other positions, to improve my portfolio, so, it's all good. Naturally, Tim's stock picking prowess once again shined here. The chart here is really constructive, and you could jump in here, on any setback, or even on a breakout of the earning day high perhaps. I'd reccomend entering a position gradually, if you're interested in riding the long term advance to $24. Buy each day for 2 weeks to a month, until you complete your desired exposure to the stock. Size is up to you and your preferred risk parameters. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:OSURLong
by IvanLabrie
1
XBTEUR: Slightly different setupXBTEUR has a similar setup to BTCCNY, but the chart differs in how accumulation and distribution patterns formed. Right now, there's an active daily uptrend signal pointing to 1067 euros, but it's likely going to fail. The market also built a potential new uptrend mode up here, a re-accumulation level, which could trigger a rally from here, or alternatively an uptrend failure and a brief pullback to support below. We'll need to monitor this and btccny, and check the uptrend speed lines on each, as well as the reaction to scheduled fundamental events, by March 1st, and 11th. See the chart annotations for more information. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
7
USDCAD: With oil rising...I think we can get a rapid selloff in USDCAD, given how volatile it is. I entered shorts on Friday with tight stops, and looking to add at market open. It also serves as a hedge against my other positions, short SEK and JPY. My currency positioning is as follows: long USD, AUD, CAD, short SEK and JPY. Fundamentals might create interesting opportunities, both long and short in majors, so I'm open to hedging my profitable trades and keeping balanced positions between currencies. (USDSEK and EURSEK are in good profits now for instance) I'm open to shorting oil against this position additionally, but not right now, when it's expanding the daily range shooting up. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
2
ETHEUR: Long term uptrend updateIn my previous chart, in related ideas, I had outlined a set of conditionals that had to pan out for confirmation of further upside in ETH. For now, we're seeing a myriad of bullish signals, and most of the different conditions are becoming true. If we manage to hit 13.2332 during February, we will have full confirmation of a monthly advance that can take us up by over 2000%, or even 2700% eventually. I'm holding longs from the 8.23usd mark, and I recently added, by taking profits from part of my 80% account Bitcoin long at 0.01102: I think we can hit the DAO hack key level soon, which would have us hit the required bullish target to trigger the monthly advance signal. There's also a 3-day timeframe bullish signal which suggests we can hit over 17 euros soon, so, I think all pieces align for this move to happen now. Good luck if you're long with me. If you want to receive more specific alerts and signals, send me a pm. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
16
BTCCNY: Daily update - Uptrend speed line support nearbyBTCCNY is in an uptrend in multiple timeframes, from the 2-month timeframe, down to the weekly. The daily recently encountered supply after retesting the resistance from the initial PBOC induced selloff. Now, it is absorbing the sellers' orders down here, and it could resume the move up, or simply remain choppy until the end of the month. A good strategy will be to buy when bearish momentum slows down, on any significant setback, and look to book profits retesting overhead resistance levels. Naturally, I'm reserving the exact entries, timing, and risk management to my signals clients, but you can get an idea of what to expect here. If the uptrend speed line (white) holds, we could see a sharp advance here, and a retest and potential breakout of resistance at 7048. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
BLong
by IvanLabrie
2
DXY: Long term analysisIn this chart we can see the two main uptrends in the dollar, one from a 6-month timeframe setup, and the one in the 2-month timeframe which recently got confirmed surrounding the US Presidential election. The long term one, has time to evolve until well into 2020, and the one in the intermediate term could last until May-June 2018. Target for the first uptrend signal was hit, but it could extend to twice the range without much problem, and the 2m signal offers two targets, one that was almost hit and lies right above a strong low volume resistance zone, and two potential top targets that sit against 2m and 6m resistance, and close to twice the long term chart's target range. If we don't fail the recent intermediate term advance, and hit the target, and don't rebound instantly, or even worse, fail here and simply drop lower without hitting it in time, we can expect the dollar to rally for a good while, potentially hitting the most optimistic targets, in the long term. What I'd like to see, is that, since I'm long, and would be one in a life time risk/reward trade for me. If this fails, which is what fundamentals could suggest, according to my mentor, Tim West, then I'd have to change my mind and be flexible to trade against the trend. A failure in the 2m signal would be catastrophic, and would involve some kind of massive correction in equities probably, as the 'Trump trade' unwinds, and carry trades unwind. I'd rather not see that for now. As a precaution, I'm switching to a long only stance in metals, the Euro and bonds, whenever possible, taking short term swing trades to catch the recovery after any washed out, oversold declines. This strategy could coexist with maintainig a long only bias in my preferred USD pairs: $USDSEK, $USDGBP, $USDNOK, $USDMXN and my long equities portfolio. I did introduce some shorts too, so I'm open to trade both sides, based on valuation and different opportunities that might arise from changing fundamentals and news stories in the short and intermediate term. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
3
F: Ford can trigger a weekly uptrend next weekLet's enter longs here at market open. A good option is to go long stocks. A 19% account position would be a good starting point, you can build this position during 3-5 days. Or you can simply long calls at the money for 1 month to use up less margin. You can buy the equivalent of a 20% account position, for only 5% of the cost. I'd reccomend the 12.00 strike, March 17th call options. That's rather economic right now, but you would be in a risky position if price doesn't hit the weekly uptrend trigger level at 12.86 quickly. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYSE:FLong
by IvanLabrie
AUDUSD: Potential monthly uptrend spottedMaybe AUDUSD can rally even while DXY is moving up...I think it's possible that Trump's border wall could boost iron ore prices indirectly, thus giving AUDUSD the push it needs to detach from the now 11 month mode at 0.75248. If we don't retest this level during February, we could expect a sharp rally towards 0.82787 in the long term. Sentiment is extremely negative for AUDUSD, which doesn't make any sense, given the relative strength in this pair, and the current daily uptrend, as well as the bullish signals in multiple timeframes, copper's strength, the relentless iron/steel rally, and Australia's fundamentals, both regarding GDP growth, as well as rate differential against other currencies, weighing in political risk, and also demographics. It's a bit hard to justify shorting it, so, let's try going long once more. The daily offers a tight stop at 0.75827, but if you want, you can just use the monthly stop at 0.75248 for now. Good luck, Ivan Labrie. PS: As a reminder, I'll attach the monthly copper chart, I think the lag in AUD against iron ore and copper can resolve in a violent breakout in this currency pair, effectively closing the spread with these commodities they export.
Long
by IvanLabrie
4
USDJPY: Better to leave it alone until the 24thUSDJPY daily charts indicate we're temporarily in a downtrend, and the weekly chart suggests it's wise to wait for bearish momentum to slow down in this time scale, before attempting to go long. Weekly and monthly trends show an uptrend, according to the RgMov indicator, and have good potential, once the downside is exhausted. If we don't hit 109.536 by Feb 24th, we could assume the bears have lost steam, and buyers will be taking control once again. I'll update this chart with future developments. For now, better buy TLT, or some other bond proxy, perhaps even short $USDJPY, but it's simply safer to leave it be, and wait to buy at the bottom. Sometimes, doing nothing is the best thing to do... Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
by IvanLabrie
2