SQM: Long term potential gains are astronomical...I think $SQM presents investors with massive reward to risk ratios here. Downside is minimal, whereas potential upside is huge. Prices can climb up to $281, in case of a quarterly uptrend, and eventually reach prices as high as $1841.65 over time, whilst paying a hefty dividend as well.
Electric vehicles are a huge source of ever growing demand for lithium, and $SQM is in a prime position to benefit from this trend. There's also the possibility of funds starting to accumulate shares, as new players enter the electric car battery metals ETF market.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Keyhiddenlevels
NGAS: Potentially a massive long term bottom hereI think technicals suggest we could be seeing a huge bottom in $NGAS here, I'm long from this spot, aiming for a retest of the monthly mode resistance above, which will probably send the price sideways for a long time but can eventually result in a strong rally out of this zone, aiming for a surge towards $4+.
Very interesting chart, and certainly not moving together with anything else, which makes it a very good trading instrument to follow.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Estimated path from here onwards...This is just an application of Time@Mode rules and fundamentals (and sentiment) to plot what the Bitcoin chart will possibly look like over time according to my analysis.
I'll be monitoring sentiment and fundamentals to determine if we do bottom and start basing here, or if we will test the next support level below, since there is an active 2-week time-frame downtrend still active as per the chart on the left. The 2-month bars show a potential level where the next long term mode will form, similarly to the level we saw form at $442 from 2013 to 2015, before starting to trend steadily up when breaking up from it.
The next bull run will also adhere to Time@Mode logic, like any trend does, so we can already guesstimate even how high and for how long it may go, with moderate accuracy right now.
This is subject to change over time, but most of the structure for the trend is already set in place. I expect to maintain 75% of this analysis intact, or more.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
SPX500: Market bottomed here...I think the US stock market has reached a bottom here, likely to revisit recent highs, if still ranging -which is likely-, but very high odds it doesn't break today's low for the time being. I'd rate it at 90% odds. I'm risking a safe amount going long, entered at 2618.3, stop at 2583.5.
Let's see how this pans out over the next few days and weeks.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDMXN: Topped as per the weekly timeframe...I think the Peso will regain strength over time from this juncture. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal we had here expires next week but price already seems to be trending down in the daily timeframe, and broke a previous weekly low, so I think we're safe to assume the decline started already. The G20 talks and oil related news might be behind the strength in commodities, EM currencies and weakness in the dollar.
Either way, I'd like to have some exposure to oil and gold, at the very least, but also look into agricultural futures and related stocks, since the trade truce signaled strength might be seen in these markets. Another interesting market to monitor is tech, in particular $QCOM in the event of a merger...I'll be watching $SPY, since I fear it is a bit stretched, and might go back down, if it's still range bound and not trending.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
GDXJ: Daily, Weekly and Quarterly viewI'm long Jr. miners here, together with positions in oil and oil services, and gold, (and probably silver soon). I think we may get a weekly uptrend confirmation to trigger as a result of the jump towards daily targets that is likely to occur within this week.
The move forecasted by the weekly chart would put $GDXJ back at the quarterly time-frame mode, from where we could consider the possibility of prices surging like my quarterly chart show...very lofty targets indeed. I'm holding a 13% position in this stock as of now.
Best of luck if you take the trade.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCAD: Major topping patternI think $USDCAD might be ready to trend down from here and fulfill the long term chart pattern implications. A long term decline back down to the mode in the 6-month timeframe is possible, but won't be a straight line down naturally. Ideally one would seek to short it when it gets overbought in weekly charts, for example, and aim to cover once oversold...rinse and repeat. This will provide countless trading opportunities for those who are patient and know how to read charts using Key Hidden Levels and Time@Mode.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USOIL: Correction is likely overI think we have decent odds for a bottom in oil here, after some talks about big players indulging in naked put selling surfaced, banks that -violating regulations- sold put options without any kind of coverage. It could have been that the market was being pushed down to margin call the traders behind these leveraged long positions in oil.
Natural gas has surged tremendously since oil topped, which likely is a short squeeze as well, as per @timwest's analysis, but interestingly, the last spike to the upside didn't correlate with a spike to the downside in oil...
Evidence indicates oil has bottomed, holding technical support from fundamental events (OPEC meeting key level price zone), since we haven't plotted daily highs below this zone yet and the decline has slowed down, forming a couple of inside days.
I bought into a few oil related names and oil futs today, my clients have received updates revealing these picks and the entry and sizing earlier today.
Best of luck for us all,
Ivan Labrie.
AUDUSD: Weekly downtrend expired, daily basing...We have a daily signal forming here, after the weekly trend expired in this pair. If price holds the recent bottom, we may soon start an uptrend which will give us a few trading opportunities to benefit from between now and the end of November. A rally back to resistance is what the chart implies, best case scenario for the bulls...worst case is we remain in a sideways grind and create multiple fake breakouts to wear traders out over time. To play this trend you may need to learn how to navigate the Time@Mode signals on chart, or have your own strategy to do so.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
TSLA: Choppy sideways action...I'm always on the lookout for buy opportunities in $TSLA, but the thing is, we have to be extremely nimble and flexible with our trading in it.
With my clients we've ridden many moves in this stock profitably, way more than losing ones since we started trading it back in 2016. Right now I think fundamentals present a risk for long term investors, manifested in the extreme volatility in the stock. Over the long term, returns will definitely be positive, but may suffer compared to swing trading it until we see more stability and growth, when eventually it reaches profitability and some of the woes and fears are dispelled. We're looking at an early stage $AMZN in the making here, possibly.
The Key Hidden Levels help us spot turning points, together with my mentor Tim West's ( @timwest ) price action analysis, which give many actionable trade signals for those versed in this approach. Feel free to join the Key Hidden Levels chatroom if you're interested in following some of our trades, as well as learn a bit more about what we do.
Right now, $TSLA is at a very good spot to go long with a wide stop, and aim to catch a rally into resistance once more. Maybe a run to $300 is warranted. Note how the Elon Musk insider buy levels hold up as support -or resistance-, same as the option expiration or earnings support levels do. They provide a map for possible movement in the stock if you know how to read the bars and news.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Nissan: CEO fired, long term bottom against yearly supportI've been watching the drama in $NSANY unfold, and after ousting their leader, the stock seems to have bottomed. Technical signals show that the long term support in the yearly timeframe has held. If anything, you have significantly big odds of this drop being the bottom in this stock. Wouldn't shock me to see a rapid rally emerge from here soon.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCHF: 4H possibly leading to a larger daily rallyThe 4H timeframe looks appealing here in $USDCHF. I'm holding a daily long entry, and speculating on it triggering a larger rally that can last 2 weeks, and reach the vicinity of 1.02332. Currently my stop loss is below the recent low in the daily, but we can look into adding and trailing stops higher once we have further confirmation in a day or two. This trade serves as a hedge for my intermediate term $XAUUSD longs, which I've been holding ever since I called the bottom in precious metals (see related ideas).
A pullback in gold would be a nice opportunity to add and buy back silver and mining stocks as well. Keep an eye on those in the coming weeks.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
NGAS: Quarterly target hit rapidly, short squeeze ended...I think $NGAS will trend back down to the 2.88 region once more. Most likely peaked already, although weather being the coldest in years could be a concern, fundamentally speaking (nevertheless, this variable could be already priced in). Short entries should be safe overall, any rally is a short here in my opinion, just risk 0.25% on each attempt.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
DIS: Multi-timeframe Time@Mode trendsThe yearly and quarterly trends are up in $DIS. Weekly is back at accumulation support here, and bouncing off it, while the quarterly had retraced down into an ideal long entry level to capture the trend in motion in that timeframe. Signals have large targets, so any dip in this stock is a buy. Key Hidden Levels in the daily offer multitude of profitable long entries, while the trend consolidates in lower timeframes, following the bullish bias from longer term patterns. In short: buy the dip!
Weekly can trigger a trend in a week or two, I plotted the potential upside on chart, in cyan. Daily is oversold, but needs to climb back above the last earnings support level, see the chart below:
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
BTCUSD: Bear market still ongoing...The 2 week timeframe has flashed a sell signal in #BTCUSD, the market might trend down until April 2019. I'd stay on the sidelines and wait to buy the bottom by then, it matches the timing of fundamental events yet to pan out, which makes me think this is IT. The market needed a catalyst to move, and we have the Bitcoin ABC mess right now, bullish catalysts are not enough, and not yet here, to reverse this decline...and we still have the supply from Gox creditors that will eventually hit the market at exchanges, which puts a lid on investors' confidence.
Stay safe, stay out...trade at your own risk.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
HAL: Interesting long entry...I think $HAL is poised to rise up to 50% from here, it tested a monthly support and held up, and is now shooting up with oil coming out of a correction. I'm entering positions at market open, and looking to add over time as the trend develops, if it does bottom here as I see it now.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
SPY: Potential market bottom during consolidation phaseI think we may have seen the bottom in $SPY, judging by the action in the last couple days. The market had reached the peak of a weekly signal, and after time ran out for the projected advance started a steep correction until now. Sentiment has peaked apparently, and we could be seeing a turn around in bonds, oil, and $VIX.
Keep in mind we might be consolidating, and moving sideways all year, which is what long term (2 month bars) Time@Mode signals imply, and which also aligns with fundamentals here overall. Despite this, the market is supported, and a larger decline is not likely to happen.
I hold larger positions in metals, and miners, with some exposure to oil, Euro and $SPY here.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.