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This week could set long-term trend of USD/JPY The USD/JPY has been one of the most interesting pairs to trade in 2022. The pair has had it all, including hitting record highs and central bank intervention. But the year is not over, and some more market events are primed to possibly inject a little more volatility into the pair. Tomorrow will be the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision. While markets expect the bank to maintain its negative interest rate, it will be interesting to see if the bank starts to prepare the market for a potential tightening in the future in its post-decision address, now that the annual inflation rate in Japan reached 3.7% in October 2022. On Thursday we get to see how much higher inflation reached in November, with markets expecting a reading of 3.9%. In the lead up to these two major market events, it is appropriate to look at the technical perspective of the USD/JPY. The solid uptrend trend in the pair peaked after reaching 152.000 in October, after which the USD/JPY reversed, creating a series of lower lows in the daily chart. Subsequently, it broke below the upward trend channel. The price also retested the trend line at 142.200, a former strong demand zone. Looking at the current price action on the daily timeframe, we can see that the USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation period between 138.000, which is the resistance area, and 134.000, which is the support area. Technically, since the short-term bias for the USD/JPY is currently downtrend according to the mini trend channel drawn above, we might expect a possible breakout to the downside once the 134.000 support area has been broken. If it happens, targets include 133.000, 131.000, and 127.000 if fundamentals support the momentum. However, countering this outlook is the Know Sure Thing or KST, a momentum-based oscillator. The indicator is currently showing a bullish crossover. This crossover might suggest that there is also a possibility that a breakout to the upside might occur. Suppose the price for USD/JPY breaks above the 138.000 resistance area and closes above the mini trend channel. In that case, this might indicate that the downtrend since October might be another pullback, and the long-term bias for USD/JPY is an uptrend.
by BlackBull_Markets
USDJPY Sell ExpectedTechnically USDJPY Sell Expected From 150.14. And there is a valid strong Bearish Divergence! 1st TP: 147.6xx Remember, there is no place for luck in trading - only strategy! Risk Disclaimer Margin trading in the foreign exchange market (including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks etc.) has a high risk and is not suitable for all investors. The content of this speculation (including all data) is organised and published by me for the sole purpose of education and assistance in making independent investment decisions. All information herein is for your reference only and I take no responsibility. You are hereby advised to carefully consider your investment experience, financial situation, investment objective, risk tolerance level, and consult your independent financial adviser as to the suitability of your situation prior to making any investment. I'm not guarantee its accuracy and is not liable for any loss or damage which may result directly or indirectly from such content or the receipt of any instruction or notification therewith. Press like👍 if you enjoy + comment your opinion about the market or your thoughts, below this analysis. Best Regards! Mahfuz Azim
Short
by mahfuzazim_TA
1
1 week after Japanese yen interventionLast Thursday was an incredibly volatile trading session for the USD/JPY. This volatility was largely caused by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) intervention in the currency markets to defend its depreciating currency, the Japanese Yen. Last week’s move was the first time since 1998 that the BoJ had intervened. There are some parallels between 1998’s intervention and 2022’s. For one, the price level in 1998 was cracking 146.00 when the BoJ stepped in. Before last week’s intervention, the pair was trying to sustain a break above the 145.00 key resistance, almost reaching the 146.00 price level. Where the most recent intervention might diverge is the sustainability of the pair’s downside potential. While last week’s intervention did cause a huge fall in the USD/JPY from 145.90 to 140.35 in one session, it has since found its way back to ~144.00 over the ensuing days. This is because the BoJ’s temporary currency intervention is no match for its unwavering commitment to ultra-low interest rates. Bear in mind that the BoJ may jump back into the currency market at any time to help the yen, and as we have seen, 145.00 is a critical level for the BoJ. Currently, the price for the USDJPY is back on track towards the upside. However, the price is currently contenting with 145.00, a monthly key psychological resistance and an RSI in the 60s. On the other hand, the daily timeframe has a minor candle closure above the 144.50 daily resistance. This closure might indicate a possible continuation of the upside. The current daily candle, however, should have a strong bullish candle close to support this idea. The current candle closing below 144.50 might indicate a consolidation between 144.50 and 142.00 and needs to make an empathic break before we see price make a sustained move in either direction.
by BlackBull_Markets
FOMC vs BoJ Intervention Today’s FOMC meeting policy was as expected, with a 75-basis-points rate hike to 3.25%. In reaction, the USD/JPY moved towards the upside breaking a daily consolidation level. The JPY, however, may find some support after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) carried out a rate check in preparation for a possible intervention for the currency. Japan is now prepared at any time to intervene in the forex market to support the yen (by selling dollar/ buying yen), if needed. On the technical side, after the rate decision from the FED, the 145.00 price level comes into stronger focus. According to Mean Reversion Channel (Fareid's MRI variant) Indicator, the price is currently hovering at the weak overbought condition zone. As such, there is a suggestion that the USD/JY still has a limited potential to the upside before reaching the strong overbought area. If the price breaks above the 145.00 resistance level, the MRC indicator suggests that a target above 147.00 may be wishful thinking in the very near term. encounter increasingly strong resistance at 147.00 as indicated by the MRC indicator for a conservative target or push towards the 150.000 psychological supply zone with strong momentum otherwise. Long-term targets would be around 150.00, and the 1990 high price point of 160.00. These longer-term targets are contingent on the BoJ remaining neutral and not intervening in the currency markets. If the BoJ does in fact intervene, watch for the price to test 143.00 support area. Without knowing exactly how far the BoJ will go to support the yen, the market may get spooked and a larger sell-off in the USD/JPY than the BoJ is directly responsible for may occur. A break below that zone could potentially retest the 140.353 indicated by the MRC.
by BlackBull_Markets
1
UK electing new leader; how will this affect the GBP? As the UK will announce a new Prime Minister on September 5th, we might expect heightened volatility in the GBP in the days before and after the election result. Moreover, the new policymaker has the potential to change the long-term trend of the pound, with the potential reforms conducted impacting the UK economy. Only a few days remain until the new prime minister is appointed, so the current polls are indicative of the election's results projections, especially if the difference is significant. Liz Truss is ahead of Rishi Sunak, with the recent polls placing Truss 30 points ahead of Sunak. If nothing radical happens in the next several days, Liz Truss will be a prime minister, with odds of 91%, according to The Telegraph. What are the implications for GBP? Liz Truss stands out by having an agenda including popular policies, such as lowering taxes. On the contrary, Rishi Sunak is focused on tight fiscal policies, including raising corporate taxes. In an already high-inflation environment, low taxes could push consumer prices even higher. The Bank of England is likely to step in and raise the interest rate in response, potentially supporting the GBP. Therefore, if Liz Truss takes control of the UK government, the GBP may strengthen. The bearish sentiment for GBP may occur if Rishi Sunak wins. Technical view on GBP The GBP bulls may want to look at GBP/JPY, as the yen has been weak across the board in 2022. The pair is in a long-term uptrend, as the prices stay above 200-day MA. Since the beginning of August, GBPJPY has been consolidating under 50 and 100-day MAs, forming a triangle. The breakout above the upper border and MAs around 163.0 may end the long-term correction and send prices to the 168.0 resistance. Alternatively, GBP/USD could be an appropriate pair to go short if the pound acts weak.
by BlackBull_Markets
Japanese Yen, is it now to correct the bull move?All major pairs beat Japanese Yen for weeks, very strong bull move. Not to mention the USD. NOW, with an exception of USDJPY, is it now to do the correction. This week signals for the correction, 4H swing low have been taken (EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY) and need confirmation next week, when bull re-testing this week high. The moment of truth :) If bull fails, this would be interesting. Embrace the mighty bear's move. It is very likely the bearish move would mirror the bull move, STRONG AND LONG bars.
AShort
by dxw026
GBP/JPY BULLISH from the supportGBP/JPY has broken the lower Bollinger band on the daily timeframe. The price is currently trending downwards, and could be moving upwards due to the Bollinger band break. There is a strong support level around the 149.000 price where we suggest to start buying. entry: 149.000 S/L: 148.300 target: 152.200 Some fundamentals, with news about Fed raising rates in 2022, in combination with leveraged loan market in the US. We might see money flowing into the less risky JPY.
Long
by vf_investment