USDJPY DROP 218 PIPS / 6R Trade +
1.) end of monthly pullback
2.) 2 weekly wicks rejections
3.) weekly 0.5 fib. level
4.) daily a lot of divergence pressure
5.) building daily liq.
6.) 4h divergence
7.) failed for 4h higher high
Now you can also see my entry model with sell and buy areas and minor levels to enter the trades.
Entry Model
Jpy
AUDJPY - Keep It Simple 👌Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders,
📈 AUDJPY has demonstrated an overall bullish trend, trading within the rising broadening wedge pattern in blue.
Currently, AUDJPY is sitting around the lower bound of the wedge.
Moreover, the 96.5 serves as a robust demand zone.
🎯 Therefore, the highlighted blue circle signifies a significant zone to consider for potential buy setups . This area is noteworthy as it marks the convergence of the green demand and the lower blue trendline, acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 In accordance with my trading style:
As AUDJPY is sitting around the blue circle zone, I will actively search for bullish reversal setups to capitalize on the anticipated next bullish impulse movement.
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Richard Nasr
🇺🇸 USDJPY 🇯🇵 - Bullish sentiment forms an upward trendUSDJPY may continue its growth on the back of the rise in the dollar index due to fundamental reasons. Technically, the currency pair is forming a bullish trend, it can be understood by the rising lows and highs.
The target in our case could be 148.5
Reasons for further upside:
1) Trend breakdown
2) Yen is weaker than the dollar. The pair is rising following the DXY
3) Bullish trend is forming
4) Rising lows
5) Structure breakout
Sell NZDJPY Triangle BreakoutChina economic data: China is due to release its Q4 GDP data on January 17, 2024. Strong data could boost risk appetite and support the NZD. However, weak data could lead to further risk aversion and put downward pressure on the NZD/JPY.
Sell NZDJPY Triangle Breakout
NZD/JPY - M30 Chart - Price Breaks the pattern now.
its good chance to sell now.
Thank you.
AUDJPY to find buyers at market?AUDJPY - 24h expiry
Reverse trend line support comes in at 97.00.
Further upside is expected.
RSI (relative strength indicator) is flat and reading close to 50 (mid-point) highlighting the fact that we are non- trending.
A move through 97.25 will confirm the bullish momentum.
The measured move target is 98.00.
We look to Buy at 97.00 (stop at 96.60)
Our profit targets will be 98.00 and 98.50
Resistance: 97.50 / 98.00 / 98.50
Support: 97.00 / 96.75 / 96.00
Risk Disclaimer
The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit.
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NZDJPY - 1000pip Swing Trade ✅As you all know, we don't mess around when it comes to swing trades. We've identified yet another massive swing opportunity for you!
We are currently in a 5th wave, which is appearing as an ending diagonal. We are looking for one more move higher (5th wave of the diagonal) to complete the ending diagonal. It's important to note that this final wave can either fall short or extend beyond the parameters of the diagonal. Therefore it's imperative to play what you see and have confirmations in place rather than entering blindly.
Trade Idea:
- Watch for the final wave to complete near the outer perimeters of the diagonal
- Draw an entry trendline or look for BOS on lower timeframe
- Enter once confirmations have been met, with stops above the highs
- Targets: 87.5 (500pips), 84.5 (800pips), 81 (1150pips)
Goodluck and as always, trade safe!
USD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish SignUSD/JPY Dynamics: Fed Speculations, CPI Impact, and Bearish Signals
The Japanese Yen (JPY) has marked a second consecutive day of gains against its American counterpart, recovering from a one-month low following the release of US consumer inflation figures. Despite a slightly hot headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and comments from Federal Reserve officials suggesting prolonged higher interest rates, market speculations hint at a potential shift in the Fed's policy stance in March. This, in turn, acts as a headwind for US Treasury bond yields and exerts pressure on the USD. Nevertheless, the downside for the USD/JPY pair is tempered by the belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its ultra-dovish stance.
Technical Analysis:
From a technical perspective, our attention remains on the price for a potential new bearish impulse. The current trading scenario places the price within the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci zone, with a notable rebound from the 61.8% level following the CPI release adding confidence to our bearish setup.
Market Dynamics:
The slightly elevated US CPI and ongoing discussions among Fed officials have left markets in anticipation of a prolonged period of higher interest rates. Despite this sentiment, the prevailing expectation of a policy shift in March remains, acting as a drag on US Treasury bond yields and impacting the USD. However, the downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair is cushioned by the prevailing belief that the BoJ is unlikely to deviate from its ultra-dovish monetary policy stance.
Conclusion:
The JPY's recent strength against the USD reflects the intricate dance between US inflation data, Fed policy speculation, and the Bank of Japan's stance. While technical indicators point to the potential for a new bearish impulse in the USD/JPY pair, the overarching dynamics in the global currency markets will continue to influence its trajectory. Traders will closely monitor key economic indicators and central bank communications to gauge the evolving landscape for the JPY and USD.
Our preference
Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
XAUUSD BuyBuying Gold due to the failed close below 2016. I predicted 2012 last week, but to see this I'd anticipate good confirmation. This has not happened yet, CPI has dropped gold over 150 pips, now im expecting a clear push back to 2025+ area.
Ive entered at 2016.54, targeting 2029.54 and my stop is set at 2013.54. Gives me a 1:4.33 R/R 1%Risk
Entered at the low end of a 4Hr OB, which I'd like price to close above.
Not to much more analysis here, kept it simple, still using @nephew_sam_ FVG indictor so testing this on my funded account.
GJ Possible movement for next week openingLooking to short GJ next week, although a break of this 184.100 zone could push GJ to longs targeting 188.60 area (8/1/24)
Zoomed out onto 4hr HTF, from here I am looking to enter within that OB thats present, targeting a FVG around 180.00
Using a new indicator by @nephew_sam_ so looking forward to 2024 using this.
Upon technical analysis, I can see the finish of 2023 bought the Pound to close around 179.54. From here we have seen the slight push to the now current 183.952 area. This has been a nice steady push for GJ, which makes me think this continuation could continue.
Having said this, there hasn't been a major consolidation of price or even a pullback. From this i'd expect a slight pullback tonight (Sunday) or even through (London) Tomorrow or in due course.
My guesses are that price will continue for the short while, but a pullback is expected, and this is what I'm targeting. Day traders this could be a good opportunity, Swing traders I would probably focus on the longer targets of buying.
First documented trade of 2024 so lets see how this runs.
Potential double top on USD/JPYThe weekly chart shows a bullish engulfing candle formed last week, which marks 140.25 as an important swing low. Whilst we remain unconvinced the pair will simply break above 152, it does show the potential to extend its countertrend bounce.
However, with the pair stalling beneath last week’s high ahead of a key US inflation report, the potential for a pullback seems feasible. The 4-hour chart shows that a bearish divergence is forming with RSI (14) and the US2yr-JP2yr spread. Given last week’s high was just shy of 146 and the monthly S1 pivot, we’re on guard for a double top to send prices lower. Therefore, bears could fade into moves towards 146 with a stop above the monthly S1 pivot at 146.15.
For a large bearish reaction over the next 24 hours, we’d likely need to see a softer set of numbers from the US inflation report relative to expectations.
USDJPY long to 158.766+
1.) daily 3 pin formation on daily level
2.) daily support level (157.684)
3.) daily orderflow bullish
4.) 4h manipulation wick
5.) strong 4h divergence
6.) broke 4h trendline
7.) no 4h/30 min divergence against us
-
1.) choppy price action on monthly/weekly timeframe
2.) no clear momentum on higher timeframes
overall not the best price action but i think we hit at least 158.766
CHFJPY: The rally has only just startedCHFJPY is technically bullish on its 1D timeframe (RSI = 60.353, MACD = 0.670, ADX = 36.092) but the picture is more efficiently depicted on the 1W chart where it has already completed three straight green weeks. The 1W RSI points to a multimonth rally comparable to those that started in May 2022 and March 2023. Both peaked at a little over +18.00%. This time though the price is already near the top of the Channel Up so we will wait for it to break and validate the rally bias (TP = 185.000).
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USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy...USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Persists Amid BoJ Policy Uncertainty
The USD/JPY pair struggles to find upward momentum, remaining entrenched in a bearish trajectory after touching the 50% Fibonacci level from the previous swing high. As the market digests the aftermath of the New Year's Day earthquake in Japan and contemplates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy decisions, the Japanese Yen (JPY) faces downward pressure. Despite a modest uptick in the US Dollar (USD), the USD/JPY pair hovers just below the mid-144.00s as the European session commences on Monday.
Technical Analysis: V-Shaped Reversal Potential
Our analysis reveals a compelling scenario on the higher timeframe, suggesting the possibility of a V-shaped reversal. The price rebounded precisely from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area, situated below the 200 Moving Average. Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides in the overbought territory, supporting our bearish continuation hypothesis.
Upcoming Event: Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The upcoming week kicks off with the release of Japan's Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical event that could influence the market's perception of the BoJ's monetary policy. Investors closely monitor inflation figures as they seek clues regarding the BoJ's stance on its existing hyper-easy monetary policy. Japan's Tokyo CPI for the year-ended December is forecasted to slip from 2.3% to 2.1%, reflecting potential challenges for the BoJ to meet its 2% inflation target.
Conclusion:
In the midst of ongoing uncertainty surrounding the BoJ's policy decisions and Japan's inflation dynamics, the USD/JPY pair remains in a bearish momentum. Our analysis suggests the potential for a bearish continuation, as indicated by the V-shaped reversal scenario and the RSI signaling overbought conditions. Traders are advised to stay vigilant, with Japan's inflation data likely to shape market sentiment and guide future decisions.
Our preference
Short positions below 147.70 with entry at 145.00 and targets at 143.00 & 141.50 in extension.
Sell EURJPY Channel Breakout1. European underperformance relative to the US should weigh on the shared currency.
2. The Japanese currency was a significant underperformer during the global tightening phase, and so we believe the currency can become a significant outperformer during the global easing phase.
3. A likely hawkish monetary policy shift from the Bank of Japan later this year, combined with a weak US economy and lower US interest rates next year, should see the Yen strengthen
Thank you
AUDJPY: Buy signalAUDJPY is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.262, MACD = -0.010, ADX = 30.583) as it has been trading around its 1D MA50 for the last three weeks. We are currently on the bullish wave after the Channel Up made a HL on the 1D MA200, which is the long term Support (since June 2nd 2023). We are going long on today's pullback and target the R1 level (TP = 98.635).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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