USD/JPY Bearish Setup: Anticipating Rejection at Resistance Hello traders! Today, I’m taking a closer look at the USD/JPY pair on the 1-hour time frame, where I’m anticipating a potential bearish move.
Here’s my plan:
Resistance Level: a key zone where it has previously reversed. If the price tests this level again, I’ll be watching for a potential rejection.
Reversal Signals: I’ll be paying close attention to bearish candlestick patterns, such as shooting stars or bearish engulfing patterns, to confirm that the resistance is holding and selling pressure is building.
Momentum Check: I’ll also monitor the overall market momentum. If the upward movement starts losing steam near the resistance, this could be an early sign of a potential reversal.
Risk Management Strategy: To manage my risk, I’ll place a stop loss slightly above the resistance level, protecting against a potential breakout.
Jpy
Overlap resistance ahead?GBP/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 187.87
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.3% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 189.83
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 184.86
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Potential bullish rise?EUR/JPY has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the overlap resistance.
Pivot: 155.90
1st Support: 153.30
1st Resistance: 159.41
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which is also an overlap support.
Pivot: 88.22
1st Support: 86.65
1st Resistance: 89.17
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY: Reversal Signal or More Downside? The Japanese yen has tested prices below 141, an eight-month low for the pair. But eventually pulled back above 142. From a technical perspective, this long wick might look to some traders to be the start of a small reversal before its eventual sojourn lower.
Rom a fundamental perspective, US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in a few hours ago lower than expected. Which means the US Federal Reserve might forgo a 50bps cut in favor of a 25bps next week. This might help support the US dollar in the face of yen strength. Now we have US Producer Price Index (PPI) to look forward to on Thursday.
The Yen against Euro could be interesting to keep an eye on too in the lead up to the European Central Bank (ECB) decision. On Thursday, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate to 3.5% from 3.75%.
GBP/JPY Faces Bearish Pressure with Key Support Levels in FocusGBP/JPY Technical Analysis
Current Outlook: The price of GBP/JPY is currently trading near the pivot zone, showing bearish momentum. It appears poised for further downside, as it is struggling to hold above key support levels.
Best Scenario: The downtrend scenario is the most likely, with the price pushing lower toward the support zone. If the price breaks below 184.11, it could further decline towards the next major support at 182.49 and potentially reach 180.18, otherwise stability above 186.400 means will try to touch 188.200
Key Levels:
Pivot Zone: 186.37
Resistance Levels: 188.29, 191.58, 193.29
Support Levels: 184.11, 182.49, 180.18
Expected Range Today: The price is expected to move between 186.37 and 184.11, with a bias toward further downside pressure.
Overall Trend: The overall trend remains bearish, especially if the price breaks below 184.11, signaling further downside potential. Stabilization above the pivot zone at 186.37 could shift the trend, but for now, the downtrend dominates.
previous idea:
USD/JPY Maintains Bearish Trend Ahead of CPI ReleaseUSD/JPY Maintains Bearish Trend Ahead of CPI Release
The overall trend remains bearish as long as the price stays below 142.100, with downside targets at 140.300 and potentially 138.470. A corrective move toward the pivot line at 142.100 is possible before the bearish trend resumes. However, if the price stabilizes above 142.100 with a 4-hour candle close, a bullish move could extend toward 143.680.
In general, if the CPI is released as expected around 2.5%, this would support a bearish trend for USD/JPY.
Key Levels:
Pivot Line: 142.100
Resistance Levels: 143.680, 145.038
Support Levels: 140.300, 138.460
Expected Range: 142.100 - 138.460
Trend: Bearish while below 142.100.
CHFJPY Sell-off to be extended.The CHFJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the July 11 High and has currently already started the new Bearish Leg, having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Until it does, the trend will remain bearish.
This Leg targets the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) and our Target is 161.500. We will swift to buying again after the CCI prints two straight Higher Lows, similar to August 05 and April 02, but we will update when the time comes.
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Is the Yen Set for a Comeback? Analyzing EUR/JPY,GBP/JPY,CHF/JPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) has been one of the weakest currencies in the past three years, with some pairs experiencing a significant 70-80% devaluation, particularly against CHF, EUR, and GBP (CHF/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY).
However, since reaching a low in early July, the JPY has shown signs of reversing.
When looking at the JPY Index (see posted chart), we can observe that the price recently broke above the falling resistance line within its downward channel.
After initially stalling at resistance, as marked by a bearish Pin Bar, the subsequent fall lacked continuation and instead reversed upwards.
Currently, the JPY is on the verge of a significant breakout.
If this breakout occurs, the technical target for the next mid-term move is around 860, which would represent a potential 10% appreciation for the Yen.
Key JPY Crosses to Watch:
EUR/JPY:
After breaking out of its rising channel, EUR/JPY confirmed the breakout as valid and has begun a downward trajectory. Yesterday's strong bearish engulfing candlestick suggests that further downside is highly likely. A possible first target could be the 150 zone.
GBP/JPY:
GBP/JPY attempted to recover above its broken support but failed to hold those gains. Like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY also printed a strong bearish engulfing pattern yesterday.
This suggests a lower high may now be in place, with potential downside targets around 178.50, followed by the 170 zone, which seems a strong possibility.
CHF/JPY:
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CHF/JPY has seen one of the largest devaluations of the Yen, amounting to almost 80%. The top in this pair was marked by a head & shoulders pattern, and the price is currently sitting at the neckline. A break below this level seems imminent, with 160 being a likely target. If the correction deepens, we could even see a move toward the 151 level.
Conclusion:
These are long-term predictions, and I anticipate these movements to materialize by the end of the year.
P.S: Stay updated on these charts as conditions evolve. These predictions are based on technical analysis and market patterns for long term, so monitoring changes is crucial.
Best Of Luck!
Mihai Iacob
AUDJPY Excellent long-term Buy Entry. Double Bottom may happen.The last signal we gave on the AUDJPY pair (July 02, see chart below) couldn't have a better timing as the price was rejected on the very same day just when it hit the Sell Zone and in 3 weeks hit the 101.000 Target:
The price even broke below the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) but found Support exactly on the bottom of the 2.5 year Channel Up (on today's chart we made the necessary adjustments to fit the Higher Highs) and more importantly, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
Last week's rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), serves as a reminder that a Double Bottom might be required before the Channel Up confirms the start of the new Bullish Leg. At least this is what happened on the March 20 2023 and November 29 2021 Lows (we had a 1W MA50 rejection for 5 straight months during February 2023).
As a result, another touch of the 1W RSI on its 3-year Buy Zone will confirm the new long-term uptrend and we will turn bullish, targeting 114.000 (+26.70% rise, similar to the last two Bullish Legs).
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USD Recovery Gains Momentum Ahead of Core PPI and Unemployment..As the market gears up for the release of key economic indicators such as the USD Core PPI m/m, PPI m/m, and Unemployment Claims, the USD has shown signs of recovery. This rebound began yesterday and has continued into today’s London session, where the USD/JPY pair is trading around 143.50 as I write this article.
The pair’s recent movement follows a strong carry trade impact on the JPY, which caused the price to drop significantly from the 162 level to where we find it today. However, the USD/JPY has encountered a demand zone, showing signs of potential stabilization. Supporting this outlook is the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report, which indicates that retail traders are still predominantly short on the pair, while fund managers have begun adding to their long positions, signaling a possible shift in sentiment.
From a technical standpoint, this setup presents a favorable opportunity for a long position, aligning with forecasts we've been tracking over the last two weeks. The pair's current price action and its position near the demand zone suggest the potential for a reversal.
Today’s economic releases will be crucial in determining the next move for the USD/JPY. The data could provide further clarity on the USD’s recovery path and offer a better understanding of the broader market environment. For now, traders eyeing long positions will be watching the news closely, awaiting confirmation of the technical and fundamental cues aligning for the pair.
JPY Futures - Weekly Chart.
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USDJPY Is Approaching an Important SupportHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring USDJPY for a buying opportunity around 141.500 zone, USDJPY is trading within a channel and currently is approaching the channel support, once we get a bullish confirmation a target would be somewhere around 146 as it's the strongest resistance USDJPY will be approaching.
Trade safe, Joe.
Heading into 61.8% Fibonacci resistance?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 145.06
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 147.311
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 141.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Bullish bounce?EUR/JPY is falling towards the pivot and could reverse to the overlap resistance.
Pivot: 155.90
1st Support: 153.30
1st Resistance: 159.41
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
GBPJPY outlook GBPJPY has made a beautiful move lastly the overall trend on higher time frames is bullish but on H1 i am feeling like gold will get a dip if it breaks above this recent high and present a price action candle we will buy this pair as it reaches its recent weekly Resistance level if it breaks above it will be a buy to its global resistance or it will be a sell to recent resistance became support
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Bearish drop?USD/JPY is reacting of the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 143.62
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 144.94
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level.
Take profit: 141.75
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 138.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Heading into 38.2% Fibonacci resistance?NZD/JPY is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 38.2% Fibonacci support.
Pivot: 89.88
1st Support: 88.23
1st Resistance: 91.03
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST SEPT 2-6 : USD EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPYThis is Part 1 of the Weekly Forex Forecast for SEPT 2-6th.
In this video, we will cover:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY
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May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
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I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.