JPM Bullish Breakout? JPMorgan Trend & Seasonal Insights In this video, we analyze JPM, JP Morgan Chase, which is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend on the daily timeframe. The stock has consistently retraced to 50% of its previous price swings. Adding a seasonality perspective, we observe a historical pattern where the market tends to sell off into December 20th before rallying through the first or second week of January. My bias remains bullish, with a potential buy at the current price contingent on a break of structure. Please note, this is not financial advice.
Jpmorgan
JP MORGAN Expect a 1D MA50 correction before it turns into a buyJP Morgan Chase (JPM) posted a strong bullish leg on our last analysis (September 17, see chart below) that easily hit our $229 Target:
From a wider perspective on the 1D time-frame, the price is now right at the top of the 13-month Channel Up on an overbought 1D RSI and a 1D MACD that is about to form a Bearish Cross.
All previous Higher Highs of the pattern formed MACD Bearish Crosses and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on a minimum of -7.35% correction. Note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) never broke, so as long as it holds, the long-term bullish trend is intact.
As a result, we now expect a pull-back to the 1D MA50 and a minimum of -7.35% decline puts the Target a $236.00.
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JP Morgan Chase weekly (log)Hello commuté,
Weekly chart still in log with linear regression channels
The trend is magnificent, nothing to say it is indeed the first US bank.
The upward trend has been since 2011, it's crazy, right?
The 200-period simple average is in orange on the chart.
Make your opinion, before placing an order.
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JPM: Overbought on 1M. Buying becomes risky now.JP Morgan is almost overbought on its 1M technical outlook (RSI = 69.452, MACD = 20.800, ADX = 54.049), trading very close to the top of the 12 year Channel Up. Being overbought on the wider/ longest timeframe available, indicates trend exhastion and a potential bearish reversal. Basically, we continue to use the same pattern that helped us get a strong buy last time and this time it shows that the last two times the 1M RSI was this overbought, the stock pulled back to at least the 0.236 Fibonacci level. Consequently we expect a lengthy but relatively controlled correction to start in the coming candles to test the 0.236 Fib and approach the 1M MA50 (TP = 187.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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JPMorgan (JPM) Shares Rise Over 4% Following Earnings ReportJPMorgan (JPM) Shares Rise Over 4% Following Earnings Report
On Friday, before the market opened, JPMorgan (JPM) released its Q3 earnings, which exceeded expectations:
→ Earnings per share: Expected = $3.99, Actual = $4.97
→ Revenue: Expected = $41.4 billion, Actual = $43.4 billion
CEO Jamie Dimon praised the strong results but issued several cautionary statements. He noted:
→ Geopolitical risks are rising rapidly. "We have been closely monitoring the geopolitical situation for some time, and recent events show that conditions are dangerous and deteriorating."
→ "While inflation is easing and the US economy remains resilient, several critical challenges persist, including a large budget deficit, infrastructure needs, trade restructuring, and the remilitarisation of the world."
Despite Dimon's caution, investors responded positively to JPMorgan’s strong results, pushing JPM shares up more than 4% on Friday.
Year-to-date, the stock has gained around 30%, and since last October, the increase has been about 50%.
Technical Analysis of JPMorgan (JPM) Shares:
→ The price is moving within an ascending channel (shown in blue).
→ The RSI indicator has risen to the overbought zone.
→ Friday’s candlestick shows a noticeable upper shadow (a sign of selling pressure).
→ The psychological level of $225 per share may act as resistance, as seen at the start of September.
If the bullish momentum continues and the price of JPM shares approaches the upper boundary of the channel, this could set the stage for a correction, potentially towards the support zone formed by:
→ The lower boundary of the blue channel
→ Former resistance at $213
→ The lower edge of Friday’s bullish gap
According to TipRanks, the average analyst price target for JPMorgan shares is $228 over the next 12 months.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
JPMorgan Stock Surges After Q3 Earnings Beat EstimatesJPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ) shares rose nearly 5% on Friday as the bank's Q3 earnings exceeded expectations. JPMorgan (NYSE: NYSE:JPM ), the world’s largest bank by market capitalization, reported a robust revenue of $42.65 billion, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $40.85 billion. This strong performance was driven by growth in net interest income (NII), which increased to $23.41 billion.
Earnings Outlook
JPMorgan’s solid Q3 results showcased its ability to navigate a challenging macroeconomic environment. The bank posted earnings of $4.37 per share, slightly higher than the $4.33 from a year ago and far ahead of analyst estimates of $3.97. While profits dipped slightly to $12.9 billion from $13.15 billion, the impressive revenue and NII growth were key drivers behind the stock's upward momentum.
Despite the recent cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, which had impacted net interest margins for many banks, JPMorgan’s core business remained resilient. Rising deposit costs have placed pressure on banks in recent quarters, but the expectation is that lower rates will eventually lower deposit expenses and reignite loan growth. JPMorgan is also well-positioned to benefit from potential future interest rate cuts, which should stimulate investment banking activity and loan demand.
CEO Jamie Dimon remains cautious about the global economy, citing geopolitical risks such as the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. These factors, combined with U.S.-China tensions, have prompted the bank to maintain a defensive posture. Nevertheless, JPMorgan's massive scale and global reach have enabled it to weather uncertainty better than most financial institutions.
Technical Outlook
On the technical side, JPMorgan’s stock is up 4.96% at the time of writing, approaching an overbought region with an RSI of 68.35. This marks a critical juncture, as the stock is nearing its August 30th, 2024, resistance point, a level where it previously dipped after a strong rally. While the possibility of a short-term pullback exists, the current daily price chart shows a bullish harami pattern. This continuation pattern, particularly when preceded by two bullish candles, indicates strong momentum in favor of further gains.
The bullish harami pattern, coupled with JPMorgan’s strong earnings performance, suggests that the stock may continue to rise in the near term. However, investors should monitor the NYSE:JPM resistance level closely, as a break above this point could propel the stock toward new highs, while a failure to break through may signal a potential consolidation or regression.
In summary, JPMorgan’s combination of strong earnings, a positive technical setup, and resilient fundamentals make it a stock to watch in the coming weeks. While geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility remain risks, the bank’s performance in this quarter positions it as a leader in the financial sector.
JPM JPMorgan Chase Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on JPM:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JPM JPMorgan Chase prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 210usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-10-18,
for a premium of approximately $2.82.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Bearish Scenario on the HorizonYou have to hear us out on this one, as we are presenting a very bearish scenario, but we will explain why we think it could unfold this way.
First, let's look at the weekly chart (yes, the weekly chart). This chart shows a near-perfect Elliott wave and Fibonacci count, respecting all the important theoretical points well. If this analysis is correct, we are currently in the last push of wave (5) to end this large cycle. After that, we should see lower prices for a higher wave II. We give the current wave (5) a maximum target of $271, but it is more likely to drop before we reach that level.
In the the main chart, we zoomed in to make it clearer. Everything depends on whether we are correct about wave (3) and wave (4). If our count is accurate, wave (3) should conclude between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. NYSE:JPM has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI, and if the stock drops below $190, we expect prices to fall further, ideally between $178.46 and $149, for one last push higher to conclude this cycle.
It will take some time until we get there, but good things take time, and we are ready for it to play out. Alerts are set, and the plan is in place. 😎
JPM - 10% to 20% Dip IncomingDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational & entertainment purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to be involved with this market. Trading involves significant risk, do your own due diligence.
A concerning sign for JPM bulls triggered today. We saw the DPO & CCI divergence confirmed. Price targets to the downside of this confirmation imply a 10% to 20% dip is coming for JPM.
See you down there.
JP MORGAN to rise at least +14% on this rally.We haven't looked into JP Morgan Chase (JPM) in almost 6 months (March 25, see chart below) and the excellent sell signal it gave us:
That was right at the top of its 2-year Channel Up. Right now we have the price rebounding an pricing a Higher Low on a shorter-term Channel Up since the March 25 High. Being still below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), gives time for an early buy.
The minimum % of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +14.07% so our Target is at $229.00 accordingly.
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JPM as A Gauge For Bull Run
I consider JPM as a source of truth in this bull run for several reasons:
Post-Banking Crisis Fragility: Especially following the banking crisis in 2023, banks are more fragile, and money has consolidated in some bigger, safer banks.
Exposure to Various Crises: They have a lot of skin in the game, so any crisis coming from either a tech bust, Japan, bonds, or inflation will surely affect them.
Too Big to Fail: They most probably won't go bankrupt; they are too big to fail.
Correlation with S&P 500: JPM is almost perfectly correlated with the S&P 500.
Lately, I have been observing new all-time highs from both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and of course, JPM. It hasn't even dropped below the weekly 20 MA as it did in 2021. So, it is still uncertain if this is a breather or the beginning of the end. Over the last four weeks, the wicks were up but pressured down. Making another local top will be the third in 2024, and that also create 2nd bearish divergence on RSI, so I would watch out for a quick meltdown.
JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought the dip on JPM:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 200usd strike price in the money in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $17.25.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
JP Morgan Surprises Investors with Strong EarningsOn Friday, JP Morgan surprised investors with a robust earnings release, posting an impressive +4.01% increase and a revenue surge of 20.78% above estimates. This positive news has ignited investor confidence and set the stage for a potential bullish trend.
Historically, JP Morgan's stock has shown a seasonal pattern of growth during this period. Over the past 15 years, the company's stock price has typically increased during the summer months. This historical trend, combined with the recent strong earnings report, suggests a favorable outlook for JP Morgan's stock in the near term.
The pre-market indicators are already showing gains, reflecting investor optimism. Given these positive signals, we are looking to open a long position at the start of the New York session today.
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US Bank about to implode! Regional Banking is gonna take a hit!First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large reinflation boost (precious metals).
Biden even hinted at rates coming down in July so this regional bank implosion has to happen soon. I don't see banking in the USA doing good long term because the banking structure needs to be consolidated to isolate and do away with cash so they can bring out CBDC's. At that point banks will be "stakeholders" which is fancy speak for fascist government control over corporations, but from an international level.
Also, TTM Squeeze indicator is loaded on every TF except Monthly, which showed that it already went off and is gathering steam for the next leg down in the breakout, but a very powerful move since this is signaling on the weekly chart.
JPMorgan Chase Stock Dip: An Opportunity Amidst the NumbersIn the wake of last week's unexpected setback for JPMorgan Chase's stock, investors are presented with a perplexing narrative. Contrary to expectations, the banking giant refrained from revising its 2024 revenue guidance, leading to a notable 6% drop in share price. Yet, beneath this seemingly negative surface lies a compelling investment opportunity, driven by robust performance metrics and strategic positioning within the financial sector.
Despite the initial market reaction, JPMorgan Chase's first-quarter results surpassed expectations, with impressive revenue and per-share profit figures. While the lack of upward revision to net interest income guidance caused temporary turbulence, a deeper analysis reveals several positive indicators supporting a bullish outlook.
Notably, JPMorgan Chase has outperformed its competitors in key areas, including loan losses, interest income growth, and revenue diversification. The bank's proactive measures to optimize its balance sheet and enhance fiscal flexibility further underscore its resilience in the face of market challenges.
Moreover, the company's solid financial foundation, highlighted by robust return on equity metrics, distinguishes it as a top performer within the industry. Compared to peers, JPMorgan Chase's profitability remains unmatched, reflecting its ability to deliver consistent shareholder value over the long term.
While market dynamics and external factors may influence short-term stock movements, the intrinsic strength of JPMorgan Chase as a company remains steadfast. As such, the recent dip in share price presents an attractive entry point for investors seeking exposure to a leading player in the financial sector.
In conclusion, JPMorgan Chase stands as a beacon of stability and profitability in an ever-evolving market landscape. The recent downturn in stock price offers investors an opportunity to capitalize on the company's enduring strength and potential for future growth. As always, prudent investors should conduct thorough due diligence and consider their investment objectives before making any decisions.
JP Morgan Chase & Co. Hitting The Top The JPMorgan Chase CEO's WSJ was interviewed recently with Wall Street Journal Editor-in-Chief Emma Tucker, for a range of topics.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon ranked geopolitics as his top worry and said he's less optimistic about a soft landing than Wall Street in an interview on Thursday.
While Wall Street seems to be betting of a roughly 70% chance of avoiding a recession in a so-called soft landing in the economy, Dimon said he sees the odds about half that.
The green economy, the remilitarization of the world, fiscal deficits and geopolitics are all factors that could keep inflation higher for longer, he said.
"When I look at the range of possible outcomes, you can have that soft landing," Dimon said. "I'm a little more worried it may not be so soft and inflation may not quite go away as people expect. I'm not talking about this year - I'm talking about 2025 or 2026."
While the economy continues to do well for the majority of Americans due to low employment, rising home values and stronger stock prices, the threat of slow growth and inflation - stagflation - from roughly 45 to 50 years ago could return.
"It looks a little bit like the 70s to me," Dimon said. "Things looked pretty rosy in 1972. They were not rosy in 1973. Don't get lulled into a false sense of security."
Dimon said he has "enormous respect" for Jerome Powell when asked whether the Fed chairman is doing a good job as the central bank signals that it's not in a hurry to cut interest rates.
"I think the Fed was probably late in raising rates," Dimon said. "They caught up. They're probably right in watching right now. We don't know what's going to happen. They might as well wait."
Dimon declined to state a preference in presidential candidates and said the bank would work with whomever is in the White House.
Biden's economic policies are working "partially," he said, party due to the huge amounts of economic stimulus such as the Bipartisan infrastructure bill, which Dimon praised.
But the bottom 20% of wage earners in the U.S. continues to struggle.
"If you go to rural America, or inner cities, I'm not sure they feel they're being lifted up by this economy," he said.
He avoids social media but said he pulls up popular destinations such as TikTok once a year to see what's happening on them.
"I am not a fanatic on the phone....I think people should spend a little less time on that and a little more time thinking," Dimon said. "I'm not on any social media."
In technical terms, JPMorgan Chase's stock (JPM) has risen 14.43% so far in 2024 (compared to a 7.48% gain by the S&P500), hit the Upper side of Long-Term upside channel near $200 per share, able to further technical declines.
Earnings alert: Companies to watch for potential trades this weeAs we step into the second week of the Q1 earnings season, a roster of major financial players is gearing up to unveil their financial reports.
Expect updates from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, American Express, Blackstone, and Charles Schwab.
Additionally, non-financial companies like UnitedHealth, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Netflix, P&G, J&J, and ASML Holding are also slated to release their earnings.
While bank stocks have been outperforming the broader S&P 500 Index in the past six months, the tide may be turning in the first quarter of this year. Despite JPMorgan's announcement of a modest 6% rise in profits on Friday, shares dropped over 5% following the bank's conservative full-year projections for net interest income. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo and Citigroup saw declines in profits.
On Wednesday, eyes will be on Discover Financial Services as it presents its results following the announcement of its acquisition by Capital One in February. And wrapping up the week is American Express, which is set to report after providing strong full-year guidance and increasing its dividend in the last quarter. Blackstone is expected to reveal a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues.
Thursday brings Netflix's report, with the streaming giant aiming to maintain its momentum in subscriber growth. Netflix's management has recently expressed confidence in their growth strategy, emphasizing improvements across all aspects of their platform, the introduction of paid sharing, and the expansion of their advertising offerings.
Consumer product giants Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble will disclose their earnings on Tuesday and Friday respectively, offering insights into whether increased prices are sustaining revenue growth.
Meanwhile, health insurer UnitedHealth Group is set to report on Tuesday amid rumors of an antitrust investigation.
JPMorgan profit rises 6% But stock Plummets by 4.82%Amidst a 6% surge in profit, JPMorgan Chase ( NYSE:JPM ) faces a rocky road ahead as its interest income forecast falls short, resulting in a 4.82% stock plummet.
Despite the bank's robust financial performance in the first quarter, JPMorgan's ( NYSE:JPM ) projection for income from interest payments failed to meet analysts' expectations, triggering a dip in its shares. CEO Jamie Dimon's cautious outlook underscores the uncertainties looming over the economic horizon, including global conflicts, inflationary pressures, and quantitative tightening.
While the bank anticipates an uptick in net interest income (NII) for the full year, it fell short of market predictions, signaling potential challenges ahead. The dip in share value, however, contrasts analysts' positive sentiments regarding JPMorgan's overall performance in what was described as another "solid" quarter.
As the banking giant grapples with economic uncertainties, its succession plans come into focus, with potential successors to Dimon's leadership identified by the board. Amidst speculation about Dimon's future, both within the bank and potentially in a governmental role, the stability and trajectory of JPMorgan remain under scrutiny.
Despite the challenges, JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ) continues to expand its workforce and navigate evolving market dynamics, demonstrating resilience in a volatile financial landscape.
Technical Outlook
JPMorgan ( NYSE:JPM ) stock is nosediving toward a new support zone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 36.91 reaffirms the thesis. The stock is trading below the 50-day Moving Average (MA).
JPMorgan's ( NYSE:JPM ) 4-month Price chart shows a "Bearish Harami" candlestick pattern.