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JPM

XLF Long XLF Analysis done on daily candles. The financial sector has been one of the more resilient sectors on the stock market in 2022, with most stocks managing to hold their key levels and not declining as severely as major markets. When analyzing bank stock performances, we see that they have lagged way behind many other industries since the Covid crash in recovery, but this year may bring change to that. With interest rates expected to increase starting in March, banks and other financial companies are projected to benefit from this monetary policy change. We’ve been primarily focused on the XLF ETF to gauge overall health in the financial sector; this is an ETF (exchange traded fund) that holds assets such as Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Back of America…etc. Keeping an eye on this ETF is critical if you’re interested in trading or investing in the financial sector considering it allows you to see how the overall industry is performing. Keep in mind that banks are known to be slow movers, so their breakouts may not be as robust as a tech stock breakout would be, but the patient will be rewarded in the long run.
AMEX:XLFLong
by hyperstocks
JPMorgan Chase | Fundamental AnalysisDespite the high valuation and declining stock price following the release of its Q4 and full-year 2021 earnings report, analysts still believe that JPMorgan Chase is the best-performing banking asset of its kind. After all, America's largest bank by asset size generated more than $125 billion in earnings on a managed basis in 2021. Still, the bank may struggle to deliver the returns investors have grown accustomed to in recent years because of some near-term adversity. And here's why. One way to estimate JPMorgan's accomplishments on a quarterly and annual basis is the return on tangible total capital (ROTCE), which is a technical rate of return on equity after dismissing selected stock, charity, and intangible assets. It is definitely a strong number, taking into account the intricacy of the bank and the amount of regulatory capital it must have. In recent years, JPMorgan has mostly exceeded its target of 17%. In 2019, before the pandemic and when the federal funds rate was higher, which is apt to help banks, JPMorgan Chase reported 19% ROTCE. The bank reported 14% ROTCE in 2020 and then 23% in 2021. However, both ROTCEs in 2020 and 2021 were significantly influenced by reserve capital. In 2020, JPMorgan had to set aside a ton of funds to prepare for potential loan losses, which significantly reduced profits. In 2021, realizing that these loan losses would not be realized, JPMorgan put the reserve capital back into earnings, which increased ROTCE significantly. When the reserve capital was drawn out in 2020 and 2021, JPMorgan's earnings were 19% and 18% ROTCE, respectively. How did these numbers do so well with so little credit growth and low interest rates over the past two years? The bank's Corporate & Investment Banking (CIB) division had an outstanding year, first in capital markets and then in investment banking in 2021. But as earnings at CIB are expected to normalize this year and interest rates remain relatively low, all things considered, achieving the 17% goal becomes more challenging. No doubt much of the sell-off after JPMorgan's Jan. 14 report was due to the bank's guidance, which was somewhat muddled and seemed to suggest less fortunate outcomes this year and possibly next. One of the main metrics on which banks typically provide guidance is net interest income (NII), which is the money banks earn on loans and securities after covering the cost of funding those assets. When the Federal Reserve raises its benchmark overnight lending rate, the federal funds rate, banks tend to earn more NII because the yield on their assets, such as loans and securities, is revalued based on the federal funds rate higher than the rate on their liabilities, such as deposits. JPMorgan does expect NII to grow as a result of rising rates. In 2021, NII from loans and securities was about $44.5 billion. With expected rate increases this year, some growth in loans and securities placements, JPMorgan expects that to grow to about $50 billion in 2022. But JPMorgan also gets NII from the bank's CIB Markets division, mostly from the bank's fixed-income capital markets business, doing things like holding bonds and some customer lending and financing. This was very high in 2020 and 2021 at $8.4 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, but is now expected to normalize as rising rates also drive up the cost of funding fixed-income assets. In 2019, when the economy was more normal, the NII of CIB markets was only about $3.1 billion. Thus, while JPMorgan is expected to benefit significantly from rising rates, NII may be offset to some extent by lower NII in CIB markets, although this NII is harder to predict. JPMorgan's spending forecast also took analysts by surprise. After spending just under $71 billion last year, management expects spending to reach about $77 billion this year, a slight increase. About $2.5 billion of that increase will go toward employee compensation and normalizing travel and entertainment expenses, and about $3.5 billion will go toward investments in the company, such as technology capabilities, expansion, and marketing. As analysts noted, such spending growth is likely to make it difficult for JPMorgan to get positive operating leverage this year and possibly next, when revenue growth outpaces expense growth. But CEO Jamie Dimon said reaching 17% ROTCE is not out of the question in 2023, depending on factors such as the performance of fixed-income capital markets and the deployment of excess cash, on which the bank has been conservative. Investors also seem somewhat disappointed that JPMorgan has significantly increased its investments in the company over the past few years, so they want those investments to be reflected in earnings. JPMorgan stock has been priced pretty high, and it will face some difficulties in the coming years. At this point, there is probably potential for much higher returns in stocks like Citigroup and Wells Fargo, which are on a turnaround. But they also carry a lot of risks, while experts are confident that JPMorgan management is managing the company wisely and investing to handle all the competition in the banking sector now and in the future.
NYSE:JPMShort
by FOREXN1
3
More correction in banks..!It seems Banks will correct in the coming days..! Considering their weight it will affect the S&P 500 and Dow! You can see the most important support(green line) and resistance (red line) levels. Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:GSShort
by Moshkelgosha
1
JPM JPMorgan Chase Neutral1- CCI 20 is perfectly over 140. (sideway ) 2- a little close to Resistance than support. ( little bearish ) 3- The red line is over the White line of “ACL” (self-made indicator) .( Bullish ) (ADL indicator) 4- "Multi analyzer" (self-made indicator) is uptrend and is 5 right now. ( Bullish ) 5- Close is over the red and white line ( Bullish ) 6- Mid-term channel (LR of 9months) is ascending (Bullish ) 7- Long-term trend is Bullish ( little Bullish ) 8- In bottom half of Mid-term channel ( bearish ) 9- around middle of channel ( little bearish ) Overly , Bulls are stronger Buying is suggested in reaction to bottom of the channel. Buying is also suggested after breaking the resistance around 173$ SL: depend on the setup (I will clarify later) TP1 : depend on the setup (I will clarify later) TP2: depend on the setup (I will clarify later) Beyond the technical: (do your analysis, I’m not educated in the case of fundamental analysis academically) Fair Price to Intrinsic Value: 2.72 To summarize my fundamental opinion on this stock: A little bad ( a little bearish) In case of good stocks I prefer to be an investor not a trader, but trading with lower Trading with smaller amounts can increase the overall profitability without any unreasonable risk.
NYSE:JPM
by AliSignals
Banks could experience a bullish rally..!it seems Banks stocks have finished their correction and started a new rally! Keep them in your portfolio during high inflation times! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BACLong
by Moshkelgosha
6
Integrity is Important!Please review the analysis published on November 4th, 2021: Title: Negative days ahead for banks! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BACShort
by Moshkelgosha
2
Negative days ahead for banks!It seems Banks have run out of steam and in the near future, they will make a correction or go sideways! BAC: Fails to close above 48.50 WFC: Got rejected from resistance level and may retest 46 in the coming days C: struggling at the support line MS: pure consolidation between 96-106 JPM: 2-3% correction is expected! GS: could retest 370 level once again! You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts! Best, Moshkelgosha DISCLAIMER I’m not a certified financial planner/a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
NYSE:BACShort
by Moshkelgosha
3
SPY Weekly, HourlyWoah! What happened yesterday? Looks like we sold off due to the news of an {1}Evergrande fail. With the reports of inflationary rates hitting their highest of all time at a whooping 6.2 percent, not heard of since the 1990's. With the supply chain waning, prices of average goods are up. All you need to do is look in the plastic bag of your local grocer to see your 50 bucks didn't even fill half of it up. Gas prices doubling inside of 2 year, and an over leveraged banking system along with hedge funds due to low rates. Consumer confidence was up 3.1 percent, but this trend may not continue without a significant wage gap increase. A GDP that is measuring the sick and the dying rather then an actual product. Not to mention banks with drawling massive amounts of their equity securities positions JP Morgan , {2}Wells Fargo decreasing credit limits , {3} Deutsche Bank 573 million of securities to take affect 12-21-2021, Goldman Sachs 10.5 Billion of Securities. These are the ones I know about. Looking at a few charts, without technical indicators because these obviously do not apply weekly daily Tomorrow I see sideways trading to start the right shoulder of a corrective H&S pattern 15 min Trade safely, go leaps on options {Not financial advise} How to measure Consumer Confidence is in the link below www.investopedia.com {1} the-japan-news.com {2}https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210520005659/en/CORRECTING-and-REPLACING-Wells-Fargo-to-Liquidate-Central-Fidelity-Capital-Trust-I-and-Wachovia-Capital-Trust-II-Resulting-in-the-Cancellation-of-Capital-Securities-and-Distribution-of-Underlying-Debentures-to-Holders {3} chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/viewer.html?pdfurl=https%3A%2F%2Finvestor-relations.db.com%2Ffiles%2Fdocuments%2Fnews-for-fixed-income-investors%2FISIN%2520DE000A0DHUM0%2520Note%2520of%2520Redemption%252019%2520October%25202021.pdf&clen=123236&chunk=true {4} www.bloomberg.com You guys! Please be careful
UShort
by ssyxworld
JPM has reached to it's highest resistance , possibly shortNYSE:JPM hello guys , I wish you're all fine . JPM touched 168$ which has been a nice resistance on June 03 2021 Also the candles looks bearish in 1h and 4h RSI is at 67.85 and overbought ------ Also I think because of the fear of inflation in U.S and also low CB Consumer Confidence which was reported today and caused stocks to fall and bearish , JPM has not fallen enough in comparation to the other stocks . So probably on Wednesday when the market opens , we must see what's gonna happen to JPM I go for a short position . what's your idea guys ?? is JPM still bullish or it's bearish now ?? !! this is just a personal analysis and this person has no responsibility of your trade and risk !!
NYSE:JPMShort
by mahdirhimi
2