JPM
JP Morgan remains strong - outperforming SP500The underlying bullish trend remains intact, as prices post new highs. Momentum studies are already overstretched, however, but downside risks are likely to remain limited as monthly studies remain strong and investors maintain a buy-into-dips strategy.
JP Morgan is also outperforming the SP500, and as a proxy for the broader based US Financials Sector, asset managers are likely to maintain an overweight stance in this sector.
Barclays PLC GETTING READY TO FILE BANKRUPTCY BY 2022From 2007 high it is going down trend. And now in near future it will re-test the 2009 low around $2.75.(see green line in the chart) If it fails to hold then BCS will go pennies on the dollar. Though you might have missed the maximum profit ratio by shorting but still you guys have some hope as it is only trading around $8 range and soon it will free fall. Good luck to you all. It will be a painful as those trickling down might take some time.
FAREWELL TO WELLS FARGOBlack line a Temporary bounce after hitting the black line but most aggressive manipulators can hold for the below line for max profit.
There will be a strong bounce once hits this Red support line but once broke it will go down to $4 or below. Take out profit and go short after few weeks.
===============================
At least this is the start of the another financial crisis which well may come after election or post summer 2017. All the financials banks will start to collapse.
Good news for JP MorganIt is in my list to go short with options in few months. May before or after election. Let see!!!!
Black line 1st degree is a very strong support line. So bounce expecting when it touches and then side wise choppy trade and will be short lived bounce. Eventually it will break the 2009 line and then the territory will be a free fall. Take your money out from the bank before it shuts down. Because the last support zone I can see is in 2009 low.
10% downside if $62 is lostGS was clear signs of buying or bullish absorption earlier this year. Early April GS pullback to test and define the number of "weak hands" that were remaining. The test produced very little selling and resulting in price finding bids into resistance.
Now that the "gap" is closed there appear to be very little demand and a weak close for the week would imply that we trade lower to retest the conviction of previously identified bulls. If so longs could be exposed to 10% risk.
Good Luck
XLF WEAKNESS / JPM SHORT AFTER iH&S RALLYXLF WEAKNESS / JPM SHORT AFTER iH&S RALLY
Clean trendline touch. Not going to catch a bid here.
Inverse Head & Shoulder typically rallies to 786 retrace- which coincides w/ upper trendline.
Great short opp.
Options could be used to gear up on JPM, or, buy some puts on the XLF if you can't afford it.
Would be looking to buy premium here, not be a writer..IV is ridiculously low so protection is cheap!!
JPM - Possible ShortJPM has declined from a double tops formation which is marked by two horizontal blue lines at approximately 70 and 68.5. Based on this formation, we would expect a new resistance level to be established at approximately 60, which has been the case thus far in 2016.
At the moment JPM is flirting with this line at 59.76 which brings up the question of whether it can break its resistance level or if it will decline again.
There's little to indicate that it should continue upward in a bullish manner. First note the expected decline from its recent double tops. This is the first price range shown on the chart, declining 14.31% from the resistance at 60. In actuality, the price never declined more than 11.09% (the second price range shown on the chart). This is a weak indicater that more bearish behavior is possible - albeit a weak one as its not at all uncommon for a reversal to miss a price target.
Second we can examine the volume, which is at 20.929M shares today against a moving average of 24.179M. Volume over the past several days has failed to increase significantly and show strong buying pressure, despite a jump in price. This suggests little moment behind the move.
Third , we can look at the last time the stock tried to reach its resistance level. On a similarly abrupt spike and on similar volume, it crashed dramatically almost immediately after and set a new low.
In terms of evidence favoring a bullish move, I should point out that there is a stubby little head and shoulders bottom pattern that appears from mid January until now. I do not believe this is a valid formation based on the nature of the head (you can examine JPM using candlesticks and see its a single outlier), volume spikes that are inconsistent with the formation, and its uncharacteristically short duration (though head and shoulders certainly do appear over short timeframes, I'm wary of them without strong confirming indicators).
Overall I think that while its possible (especially if the market on the whole surges) that the stock moves up from here, it is most likely that JPM will fail to pierce its resistance level and will decline to approximately 57 , possibly even setting a new low as it did the last time it approached resistance.
SPX Pullbacks Are Volumeless, Stay the CourseTraders have seen this before, and it continues to play out as the global economic climate breaks down. Although these pullbacks in the SPX are often lofty and swift, it is important to realize volume is the most import factor when considering the validity of a pullback.
Here , we can see that the move in SPY is volumeless. The entire squeeze from the Feb. 11 low has seen volume under the 20-day average. On balance volume is not supporting this move.
Next, when deciphering a mere pullback following a steep decline or an inflection point, think what is the "smart money" doing?
Simple. They've been selling to the dumb money for the last five weeks . Corporate buybacks continue to be the only demand in US equities.
Fundamentally, the index is highly expensive versus historical valuations. At a 21.79 P/E, the SPX is over 5 points over its mean. It's over 11 points higher that the "sweet spot." Shiller P/E, which tracks 10 years of inflation-adjusted earnings, is at 24.98 (also, historically expensive outside a recession).
Furthermore, earnings are, indeed, rolling over (along with the business cycle) while real earnings growth is cratering at -14.5 percent. Last time that happen, the US saw a recession in the early-90s, the recession following the tech bubble and the 2008 financial crisis.
See that here !
Aside from there lack of conviction with permabulls being scooped up in buyback fever, the index is about 160 points of its most recent low. Yesterday, price action closed at daily resistance at 1,978 and near the 50% Fib. level from this years epic start.
If it can close above these two levels, the next level that is key is 2,020. If bulls overtake this level a potential retest of 2,071 is probable.
However, this is how I believe it will go as the dollar continues to strengthen and the Fed continues to be out of place:
A bear market scenario like those that followed the tech bubble and financial crisis would put the SPX near 1,078.
This year, we've also seen SocGen's Albert Edwards forecast a potential 75% decline for the broader index.
17 months ago, I published a chart showing a whopping 71% potential decline in SPY from then current levels .
Granted, this was merely based on historical references and calculation, but interesting nontheless.
Will you get a chair when the music stops?
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is OverCNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream.
Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high correlation to the SPX, J.P. Morgan shares will unlikely be saved.
Since 2014, I been warning of potential headwinds from energy exposure in U.S. banks. It may not cripple the sixth-largest bank in the world, but death by 1,000 cuts won't be any better for shareholders.
On Tuesday, JPM reported a 20 percent decline in trading revenues, as well as a $500 million increase in provisions (up 60 percent) due to their energy exposure. Fee revenues were down 25 percent.
Technically, the weekly chart is showing more downside is to come. Traders are watching a 20-weekly bearish convergence with the 50- and 72-weekly EMA. Price action is, also, currently below the 200-weekly EMA.
The inability to show support above this level and challenge $59.60 could poise further stress on shares.
Near-term, we'll see price action test the trend/price demand between $52.30-$53.50. A close below $52.30 would open up $48.3 and trend lower to $43.74.
If looking at Fib. retracements, a close underneath Aug 24, 2015 Black Monday low, 1.618 Fib. extension would stand at $37.54. This would be my target for Q2-17.
Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26
Check my posts out at:
bullion.directory
www.investing.com
www.teachingcurrencytrading.com
oilpro.com
Possible Head & Shoulders breakoutLooks like our favorite investment bank may be have even more of a down swing in store. This head and shoulders pattern looks pretty well defined. The current candle however is sitting on a support level around 170 but if that is breached then 150-152 may be in store. as the next stop.
Consolidation inside the PRZ - Butterfly completion near X BAC Bearish Bat pattern is still valid as the price consolidates inside the PRZ, below two broken uptrend lines.
As the markets await Yellen and the Fed, Financials are stuck and that clearly being reflected in BAC's chart.
If the price will attempt to rally and test the X zone (18.5$) it will complete a small Butterfly pattern that will add chances that we will see bearish reversal in BAC and a move towards 16.5$-17$
R/R shown in the chart (for two scenarios)
Tomer, The MarketZone
This analysis is part of the Weekly Markets Analysis newsletters
To read more interesting technical reviews for the week- goo.gl
To subscribe to the newsletters - goo.gl
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: JPM TESTING MACRO UPTRENDSJPMorgan is testing its macro uptrend, after successfully testing its 10-year uptrend, currently price tires to reestablish its 5-year uptrend.
Recently price has bounced up from the 10-year uptrend border, marked by 1st standard deviation from 10-year mean (at 57)
Currently price is trading around its 5-year uptrend border, marked by upper 1st st deviation from 5-year mean (at 62)
The tests are aligned with short term risk.
Failure below 10-year uptrend border will initiate also a downtrend on 1-year basis (price falling below 1st standard deviation from 1-year (264-day) mean), while failure below 5-year uptrend border indicates a downtrend on quarterly basis (price below 1st standard deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean) - which is happening now...
(LIVE TEST) - STEVE PRIMO #8 SETUPS (Day 2)Day 2 - Seems like an important day for these stocks.
Most stocks here are wound in a some sort of patterns.. This Strategy #8 trigger today can take signal a technical breakout. Watch out for the market...
SPY Lagging behind QQQ lagging behind IWM.
- Nimble and selective are the words i want to remind again.