JPM
JPM: Breakout to ATH again? JPM is starting to breakout here on the 4hr chart and is currently up about 2% on the day. We're breaking out of the wedge and it is trading above both moving averages. Monitoring to see if JPM can make a move towards $167, which is the all time high, 3%-4% upside per share.Also, it has hit FIB 0.382, the risky part that it might be a rejection in this wedge especially when market is flat or down. If it doesn't breakout this time, there is a potential that it will be in near future.
JPM daily perspective and possible impulse coming.Today we will take a look at the JPM chart:
What are the main things we can see here?
a) The price is above the last support/resistance level.
b) The ascending channel has been broken, and the price is currently supported on the broken structure
c) We can see a complete ABC corrective pattern
d) Projecting a new channel assuming that the price makes a new ATH, we can see a convergence with fibo levels using the previous impulse
What conclusions can we take with this?
a) f the price reaches our green horizontal line, we will consider that to confirm our bullish view.
b) The targets we will be using are the two levels we have drawn using Fibonacci extensions
c) Ok, what happens if everything goes wrong? Our stop loss will be below the Corrective pattern.
d) If the setup is never activated and the price falls below the structure, we will cancel our view.
e) The risk we are taking on this setup is 1% of our trading capital.
f) This is another setup of the stock strategy we are applying on the markets. The expected win rate of this is between 45% - 55%, which means that we tend to be wrong half of the time. However, when we are right, we make around 1.8 to 2.5 times what we lose.
g)The expected movement can take between 150 - 250 days.
Thanks for reading guys!
ES 4450 Late Chasers will be lit up: 4250 - 4150As Volumes begin to dry up and Seasonality begins to take hold as Euphoria
morphs quietly into "Fear" the ES will begin a large retracement.
Globex has been another Low Volume affair with the Retail Chasers continuing
to BTD with diminished conviction.
The chart remains in a Bull Trend, with extreme divergences.
We are preparing for a very nasty 10% correction, followed by another 9% @
minimum.
Ideally, and it is far too early to know - 3600/3800 Range should reduce the
appetite for the ES as Financials continue to fall apart.
Cohesion in Banking has been extraordinary. I have been an Chemical/Chase/JPM
Customer since 1991. This morning I received a notification from CHASE in which
they informed me I had not used my CHASE Credit Card in over 9 months - Citing
a lack of activity against a Large Revolving Line of Credit.
American Express, Member since 1991 - has dropped my credit score internally
from 835 to 717. The reason - an undisclosed Line of Credit, which I do not have.
My LOCs have not been reduced, although they appear to be creating causation.
Interesting times indeed for Money Center Banks.
Hedging with short JPMWhen the market reached a (new) All Time High earlier today I wanted to get some short Delta in my positions. I learned my lesson during the 'recent unpleasantness' bottom of 7/19 that being all net long puts one at risk of volatility in a portfolio... even if the positions themselves individually remain strong and profitable.
This morning's volatility setup a good short entry on NYSE:JPM that by looking at futures this evening should hedge against tomorrow's potential downside.
JPMorgan to $80 by October 2022NYSE:JPM
Jamie Dimon and his army of minion traders at $JPM are printing the classic bear pattern of a H&S top (green). Measuring that formation, that should put us at a local bottom sometime in October.
From there I would expect the Santa Rally to be our retest of the neckline, before creating the base of the much larger H&S pattern in yellow. Measuring that pattern out gives me my price target of $80 when it is all said and done by October 2022.
And yes that is a price gap at $110 (purple box) that I expect to be filled in these moves.
- Penny
FXCM USBANKS Basket Hourly Rally in Longer-Term WeaknessFXCM's USBANKS basket is in the bearish area on the daily chart on the left. The basket is an equal weighting (20% each) of JPM, BAC, WFC and C. A bearish cross of the EMAs and stochastic potentially align short-term traders with the daily. If signals occur, movement of stochastic to 20 level and maintenance of that level increase the chances of a successful trade. Trend following indicators may be useful in this case as a potential exit tool. Stop above hourly high in conjunction with risk management techniques.
WATCHING $JPM for ENTRY TARGET @ 141.20WATCHING $JPM for ENTRY TARGET @ 141.20
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I will repost when it get’s closer (or if I take a position)if it goes that way and if it makes higher highs I’ll repost with new entry.
Look to the right. ENTRY target in grey. Sell target in green. Double position target in red. That’s it. I’m starting to also add in a few support levels to add as well.
I’m also thinking about doing the Entry targets on YouTube instead, maybe twice a week… I think the 10 daily charts should be for new positions, targets hit, and adds… thinkin’ about it.
JPM support line, target price It seems that it will show support at 61.80% and break through all high points if it crosses the purple downward line. The effectiveness of jpm was actually a surprise. I don't think it's reflected in the stock price yet. I think a good buying opportunity is coming soon. If the golden cross of 100ma and 200ma appears on the 15-minute chart, it is recommended to enter.
Alarming sign in S&P500If you sort the market based on the YTD performance Financial sector would be the front runner in 2021..!
Although big banks' stocks are traded at slightly lower prices these days, they outperform most tech stocks and major indexes in 2021..!
this could be an alarming sign for S&P 500..!
NYSE:JPM
NYSE:BAC
NYSE:WFC
NYSE:GS
NYSE:C
NYSE:AXP
a comparison between S&P 500 and banks performance in 2021:
A comparison between big banks and major indexes' performance in 2021!
Just to add the last cherry on the cake:
do not forget when I published the post about NASDAQ front runner in mid-February 2021:
All EV makers experienced a crash after that and never see the same price..!
JPM longI think that this stock is a great investment long term. So my thought process is that as a young individual I should wait for a great opportunity to buy in and hold for the long term to make more profits. The NASDAQ is also at highs so an eventual setback will affect the stock as well and that will be a good opportunity to buy in and hold on forever in my opinion
The Credit Cycle - Free Wealth is Over?Idea for Macro:
- Financial sector selling off heavily.
- While it's early to call a bear market, the exhaustion gap at an all time high is a reasonable signal for market reversal.
- XLF, XLE and FAAMG have been holding up the broader markets at this high... Cracks appearing?
Underlying conditions:
- Institutions will invest based on 18 months into the future (Druckenmiller).
- There are 3 relevant possibilities for the banks:
(1) Inflation is sticky, interest rates will be raised in the future, within 18 months. This actually increases the banking sector's profitability, but the price is declining because they have been speculated above valuations.
(2) Inflation is transitory, interest rates will not be raised, and we will have negative real rates. This will hurt the banks' profit margins. This is a possibility due to the 40 year demand-push deflation the US has been in (see Oil/CPI).
(3) More importantly, the economy will decelerate (deflationary). Liquidity components of the Fed B/S have been decelerating and global credit impulse (lending) has gone negative. No more easy lending, less loans, meaning less earnings for the banks. Investors know this and are exiting the overheated trade.
Either way for inflation, global liquidity and global credit impulse are turning down, so the Long Volatility trade seems to be ideal.
Why did global risk assets rise to such insane levels? Credit impulse - easy lending. Now that supply of sugar is gone. Only one thing left that can happen.
GLHF
- DPT
JP Morgan Chase & Co. bearish scenario:We have technical figure Rising Wedge in US company JPMorgan Chase & Co . ( JPM ) at daily chart . JPMorgan is an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company. The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line at 15/06/2021, if the price holds below this level we can have possible bearish price movement with forecast for the next 30 days towards 146.13 USD. Our stop loss order should be placed at 167.44 EUR if we decide to enter this position.
Things Looking Up for JPM this Summer?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 11, 2021 with a closing price of 159.92 on the hourly chart.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 161.6855 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.7815% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.577% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 23.5 trading bars; half occur within 36.5 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 44.5 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).