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JOBS

Initial Claims UpdateToday's read (not accounted for in this chart) is starting to make this a bit worrying. ICSA rising again week over week, threatening to break momentum. ICSA is a noisy indicator, but if you simply add smoothing with a moving average calculation, it becomes a better version of the unemployment rate. I say it's better because it's not subject to data issues such as workforce participation rate or other such issues that may skew the data a bit. Beyond that, ICSA leads the unrate from a data perspective, so it's a bit more of an advanced indicator. For this indicator, I like to use the 52 week (1 year) EMA and the 26 week (1/2 year) EMA to smooth things out. This HAS crossed in the past 10 years temporarily during some big unemployment swings from hurricanes. So it's important to understand those as just temporary false signals, and not anything real going on with the economy. Right now however, we clearly have no hurricanes going on, and we're getting very close to a cross, which is a pretty damn good sell signal.
FRED:ICSA
by GTStockmaster
What's With These Jobs Numbers? - Market Pop on Fake News?Where are these jobs numbers coming from? On 5/4, the latest U.S. jobs report came out showing unemployment at 3.9%(?!?) with 164,000 jobs added and wage growth virtually nonexistent. The market (DIA) couldn't decide what to do with that news early on, but Apple (plus tech overall) and energy (stocks like RIG ) were credited with lifting the indices higher, and traders ultimately deciding the jobs report shows inflation being held at bay. Thank you for lending me your attention! But if the market pop is on low unemployment (fake news) and staved-off inflation (short-term reprieve from the inevitable), that's not going to prop the market long. How is that 3.9% unemployment even calculated? Without going into details, the way unemployment is calculated has changed over the years. Many experts will tell you that if unemployment was calculated as it was back in the 90's, the number would be much, much higher. Even still, I believe unemployment has been miscalculated for a long time - presenting numbers lower than what is realistic - and a claim that unemployment is below is 4% is outrageous. The jobs environment is desolate, especially for young people. Not only is entry-level pay below livable wages, but a massive amount of jobs are ready for replacement by automation. More and more people are dropping out of the workforce, and record debt levels are coming to pass as the U.S. population is forced to turn to credit - rather than a paycheck - to maintain an acceptable standard of living. Peak earnings, slow global growth, fake jobs news, a destitute situation for young and old workers alike - the short term (questionable) news can't change the nature of reality, and if there is something that can legitimately send the markets higher, it's not - and won't be -jobs. Please like, follow, and share, and maybe we can have fun and do great things together. Thanks again! See it on the site: holsturr.com/category/markets/charts/ ** For speculative and research purposes only - good luck! **
AMEX:DIA
by holsturr
USDJPY accumulating below 114.95/115The Dollar is extremely well bid against the Yen as we head into Non-Farm Pay Rolls and may even break higher before the number. We are anticipating an eventual move to 117 - 117.50 over the coming weeks, however, the path higher is far from clear. Initial resistance is 114.95/115, already tested earlier the session. The figure could well go today, but further resistance lies just ahead; with 50% of the down-move at 115.12. Beyond there, we have the 115.40 - 115.65 zone, which sparked two bearish reversals in late January. Assuming an in line jobs print, this zone seems like a logical target for end of week. In the event of a substantially stronger than anticipated jobs number; we see a move to the 115.95 - 116.25 zone, marked by the 61.8 fib at 115.94. Initial support is today's low around 114.25, with more important support seen in the 113.55 - 113.80 zone, and a breach of there invalidating our bullish bias.
Long
by MFXSCharts
NFP Forecast EURUSD : What you should do on Friday Looking at the EUR/USD daily graph ForexSQ exprets see that the uptrend that started on 25th of July ended on August 18th. 50% Fibo retracement of that move is around 1.1155/60 and as the pair continues to stay below that level 1.11 area (Fibo 61.8% retracement) and 1.1040 (Fibo %78.6 retracement) can be targeted with the help of positive NFP numbers. It is also possible for the pair to test 1.09 area before September’s FOMC meeting. Even if we see below consensus NFP the downward may continue after a short term upward spike especially after seeing (on August 31st) how CPI and core CPI for Eurozone is respectively at 0.2% and 0.8%. 1.1200/10 area where the linear regression channel and Fibo 38.2% retracement is sitting may act as the first short term resistance level. In case this resistance is violated Fibo 23.6% retracement around 1.1265 seems as a harder obstacle to overcome. RSI on daily graph is around 42 and shows that there is more space for the pair to keep going down. Pair may go for a short covering if RSI comes close to extreme oversold levels. The last time daily RSI went below 30 was at the end of November of 2015. 100 DMA (red line) also technically supports the continuation of downward movement. Read More at www.ForexSQ.com goo.gl
by ForexSQ