GBPJPY: Correctional Movement Ahead?! 🇬🇧🇯🇵
GBPJPY reached a recently broken major trend line.
We see a strong bearish reaction from that with a formation of a bearish engulfing candle.
Taking into consideration that the pair is locally overbought, the price may drop.
Next support - 157.6.
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Japaneseyen
EURJPY: Pullback From Key Level 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY reached a peculiar zone on Monday:
we see a perfect match between a horizontal demand zone and 618 retracement of the last bullish impulse.
Testing the underlined zone, the market was rejected nicely and formed a doji candle then.
On 4h time frame, a double bottom was formed. The price successfully closed above its neckline.
I think that the pair will keep growing, targets: 141.2 / 142.3
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USDJPY- Time to Sell $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves?The Japanese yen has lost almost a fifth of its value against the USD this year, lifting the price of imports and contributing to an eight-year high in the growth of Japan’s core CPI. Similar situation with EURO and GBP.
Could this be time for a global backlash against the Fed?
Possibly yes, as Masato Kanda, Japan’s leading currency official, said on that Tokyo had “taken decisive action” to address what it warned was a “rapid and one-sided” move in the foreign exchange market. It is the first time Japan had sold dollars since 1998, according to official data.
The U.S. Treasury has very calmly acknowledged the Bank of Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange, but stopped short of endorsing the move.
“The Bank of Japan today intervened in the foreign exchange market. We understand Japan’s action, which it states aims to reduce recent heightened volatility of the yen," a Treasury spokesperson said, when asked about the currency intervention.
Rates:
Japan is now the only country in the world to retain negative rates after the Swiss National Bank lifted its own policy rate by 0.75 percentage points on Thursday, taking it into positive territory and ending Europe’s decade-long experiment with sub-zero rates.
I see FEDS rising to maybe 5% and most likely GBP is expected to hike to probably 6%
The interest rate rises set off heavy selling in government bond markets. US 10-year Treasury yields, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs has soared.
It doesn't look good for anyone, especially smaller nations in debt....
Back to Japan: There is a lot of USD that can be sold and they have expressed the need to a 'currency market intervention'. That can only be expressed in selling USD at the moment.
Yen-buying intervention has been very rare. The last time Japan intervened to support its currency was in 1998, when the Asian financial crisis triggered a yen sell-off and a rapid capital outflow from the region. Before that, Tokyo intervened to counter yen falls in 1991-1992.
Intervening by buying yen is also considered more difficult than by selling it.
In an yen-selling intervention, Japan can keep printing yen to sell to the market. But to buy, it needs to tap its $1.33 trillion of foreign reserves which, while abundant, could quickly dwindle if huge sums are required to influence rates.
Related articles:
www.reuters.com
www.bloomberg.com
NZDJPY: Breakout & Bearish Forecast 🇳🇿🇯🇵
Update for NZDJPY pair.
It turned out, that the price managed to break and close below a key daily support.
82.1 - 83.28 is a solid supply zone now.
The pair will most likely keep falling to 80.0 support.
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NZDJPY: Your Trading Plan 🇳🇿🇯🇵
NZDJPY dropped to a key daily structure support.
Approaching the underlined structure, the price formed an inverted h&s pattern on 1H time frame.
To buy with a confirmation, we need a bullish breakout of its neckline (82.57 -82.7 area).
Goals will be 83.24 / 83.77
If the price sets a new low, the setup will be invalid.
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💵British Pound/Japanese Yen💵Analyze (9/23/2022)!!!
British Pound/Japanese Yen was able to break the support lines and the support zone and is currently completing its pullback.
I expect the British Pound/Japanese Yen to go down to the trend line, at least.
🔅British Pound/Japanese Yen Analyze (GBPJPY) Timeframe 8H⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
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Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsJPY – The Japanese yen soared across the board on Thursday after monetary authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market to boost the battered currency for the first time since 1998.
Nevertheless, despite JPY’s immediate uptick, analysts doubt Japan will be able to sustain a pronounced recovery in the safe-haven.
Indeed, commenting on monetary policy divergence between the BoJ and other major central banks, Wells Fargo argues: “Over the next three to six months or possibly even longer, as long as those diverging paths of monetary policy are still in place and those differences persist, you’ll continue to see a weaker yen.”
NZDJPY Rebound on the 1D MA200 or break to pre-March levels?The NZDJPY pair has had a massive rejection today on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as the forex market is attempting to digest yesterday's Fed Rate Hike by 0.75 bp for the 3rd straight meeting. The sell-off almost hit and is so far holding the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been holding since March 02. A break below can test the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) or under conditions, the Higher Lows Zone that started back in July 20 2021.
Before we consider those levels however, as long as the 82.160 Support holds, the long-term action remains to buy the dips, with the obvious target being the 86.830 - 87.910 Resistance Zone. Not only that, but the 1D RSI is close to the oversold 30.000 level which since November 2021 it caused medium to long-term rebounds. The price action since June 15 has strong similarities with that of March - July 2021. As you see then, when the Support broke, the price gradually reached the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which on the current sequence is 80.800. A break below that, can test the July 2021 Higher Lows zone we discussed about above.
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Japanese Yen - Short & Long Term TargetsJapanese Yen Daily
Where is the bottom of this market? This is my take on where we are at in the cycle.
I believe we are approaching an area where some buying interest will show up to bring us through a wave 4.
Ultimately a wave 5 will bring us to a long term buying point as shown here:
CADJPY Sell-opportunity on a long-term rising trend.The CADJPY pair has been on a (very) long-term rising trend as depicted by the Fibonacci Channel on this chart, since the March 2020 market low. At the moment we see a short-term pull-back after the price made a new Higher High since the April 21 one.
Based both on the RSI and MACD indicators, it appears that we are in a similar pull-back leg as the one that started on October 21 2021. As you see the MACD was on a Bearish Cross with the RSI dropping after previously breaking a Lower Highs trend-line.
That sequence found bottom on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. On the current pattern that level is at 104.810 and that is our target on the short-term. This is invalidated if we break above the 110.630 Resistance, in which case we will take it as a buy break-out signal, targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the Channel. Further selling can be made if the price breaks below the 1.0 Channel Fib, in which case we would expect it to reach the 1D MA200/ 1W MA50 (orange and red trend-lines respectively) Support Zone.
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USDJPYHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT USDJPY is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this long position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UPTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
GBPJPY: Classic Bullish Setup 🇬🇧🇯🇵
On a yesterday's live stream with my students, we discussed GBPJPY pair.
Falling sharply, the price reached a solid demand cluster last week.
The price formed a tiny ascending triangle on that yesterday
and broke its neckline then.
I believe that the pair will keep growing now.
Goals: 164.28 / 164.73
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Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
EURJPY: Your Trading Plan 🇪🇺🇯🇵
EURJPY is coiling around a key daily structure support.
Analyzing the reaction of the price to that structure, I spotted a horizontal range on a 4H time frame.
The market remains very weak and indecisive on 4H and trades in sideways.
To buy with a confirmation, wait for a bullish breakout of its neckline (you need a 4H candle close above that to confirm the breakout).
Then buy aggressively or on a retest.
Goals will be 144.93 / 145.4
If the price breaks the green support, the setup will be invalid.
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USDJPY: Key Levels to Watch This Week 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Hey traders,
Here is my latest structure analysis for USDJPY:
Support 1: 141.5 - 142.6 area
Support 2: 138.85 - 139.35 area
Support 3: rising trend line
Resistance 1: 144.55 - 145.0 area
Resistance 2: 146.5 - 147.6 area
The price is currently stuck between Support 1 & Resistance 1 composing a horizontal range.
For now, you can consider range trading, buying support / selling resistance.
To catch the next move, wait for a breakout of one of its boundaries,
it will initiate a move to Support 2 / Resistance 2.
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CHFJPY One of the most consistent signals of the past 12 months.The CHFJPY pair has been pulling back after the September 13 High, following the impressive rally since the August 02 low. This pull-back is taking place after the 1D RSI broke the 80.00 heavily overbought barrier.
On this 1D chart, you may notice that especially since October 20, 2021, every time the 1D RSI got heavily reversed upon breaking the 70.00 level, the pair pulled-back. Out of the 5 times that happened in total, in 2 occasions it hit the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level, and in the other 3 in broke even below the 0.618 Fib.
As a result, it is highly likely to see this pattern repeating. The 0.382 Fib is the highly probable target and is at 145.600 (where is should hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) in the process), while the 0.618 is at 142.500 (where it could make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)). If you are a medium-term, swing trader, this is one of the most consistent trades you can take at the moment.
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EURJPYHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT EURJPY is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the buyers from this area will be defend this long position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong buyers will be push up the market again..
UPTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this long trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
EURJPYHELLO GUYS THIS MY IDEA 💡ABOUT EURJPY is nice to see strong volume area....
Where is lot of contract accumulated..
I thing that the Seller from this area will be defend this SHORT position..
and when the price come back to this area, strong SELLER will be push down the market again..
DOWNTREND + Support from the past + Strong volume area is my mainly reason for this short trade..
IF you like my work please like share and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
EURJPY: Pullback From Key Level 🇪🇺🇯🇵
Hey traders,
EURJPY is testing a key level.
The price formed a double bottom on that and broke its neckline.
I expect a pullback from the underlined structure now.
Goals: 143.76 / 144.2
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsJPY – The yen rose over 1% on Wednesday after the Bank of Japan conducted a rate check, possibly in preparation for currency intervention.
Summarising the market’s current view, CIBC stated: “Most market participants are on pins and needles awaiting whether or not we’re going to get any sort of intervention from the ministry of finance in Japan. It’s one of those things where we’ve seen comments so many times about the fact that they’re watching and monitoring the yen. The fact that they did a rate check overnight kind of indicates we’re in greater proximity toward intervention. But just intervention by itself we don’t think is going to be all that successful outside of an immediate knee-jerk reaction.”
EURJPY Buy opportunity upon a pull-back.The EURJPY pair is pulling back currently after marginally breaking above the June Resistance Zone. This continues to repeat the fractal of 2020 as we pointed out in our last analysis:
As you see the projection was correct as the price rebounded exactly on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just like on November 02 2020 and hit the Resistance Zone. If the fractal continues to play out, then it was on January 15 2021 when the price pulled-back and hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and extended the rise. The 1D MA50 is now at 138.710 and rising rapidly. Most likely contact will be made once the MACD on the 1W time-frame completes that Bullish Cross that is emerging. Our long-term target is 147.500, just below the 4.0 Fibonacci extension.
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USDJPY: Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🇺🇸🇯🇵
On a today's live stream we discussed USDJPY pair.
The pair is currently stuck within a horizontal trading range:
144.55 - 145.0 is its resistance
141.5 - 142.6 is its support.
Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries,
I see 2 potential scenarios:
If the price breaks and closes above the resistance of the range,
I will expect a bullish continuation at least to 146.5 level.
If the price breaks and closes below the support of the range,
a bearish continuation will be expected to 139.4 support.
Wait for a breakout & then follow the market!
What do you expect?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️