NZDJPY bottomed being formed. Huge long-term buy.The NZDJPY pair gave us an excellent sell signal back on our July 10 analysis (see chart below) and not only hit our 95.580 Target but broke below and invalidated the medium-term Channel Up:
The long-term Channel Up however, is still intact and it is evident on the 1W time-frame where the July - August sell-off found support and stopped exactly on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
That was the first strong long-term buy signal. Since then, the price has been consolidating within the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has already rejected the uptrend multiple times and the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up.
The second buy signal came this month, as it made a Double Bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. This whole sequence is very similar with the bottom formations of Jan - April 2023 and December - February 2022. Both started new Bullish Legs and never looked back once the price broke above the 1W MA50.
So the confirmed buy signal for this pair will be if a 1W candle closes above the 1W MA50. If that happens, we will turn bullish with our Target being 102.000 (+18.31%, the minimum Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up).
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GBPJPY Strong bullish break out inside the Channel Up.GBPJPY is having its strongest (1d) candle today in almost 18 months.
The main pattern is a Channel Up and this rise is extending its new bullish wave.
The previous one retested the MA50 (1d) after crossing over it and the resumed the uptrend to peak on a +8.70% rise.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next MA50 (1d) test.
Targets:
1. 204.500 (+8.70% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) formed a Bullish Cross 9 days ago, the 3rd inside this 5month Channel Up, which confirms that we are on a bullish wave.
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USD/JPY Surges Higher:US Economic Strength Fuels Dollar MomentumThe USD/JPY exchange rate continues its upward trajectory, aligning with our forecast as robust US economic data bolsters the dollar.
The price movement reflects the strong momentum of the USD, with the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report indicating that commercial traders maintain a strong position, while retail investors are riding the wave. Our initial price target is set at 155.050, and beyond that, we anticipate a potential move towards 158.000, where a notable supply zone exists.
Recent US macroeconomic indicators point to significant growth in the fourth quarter. Investor sentiment remains buoyed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may implement interest rate cuts in December. However, the Fed may emphasize the strengthening economic conditions and rising inflation, which could lead to a more hawkish stance in their forward guidance.
Conversely, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to maintain its current interest rate levels during Thursday's meeting. This comes after indications of a possible 25 basis point reduction just a week prior. Dovish comments from BoJ officials suggest that the bank will likely postpone any decisions until January to evaluate how US policies under the Trump administration might affect the Japanese economy.
Today's economic calendar highlights US Retail Sales, which are projected to reflect strong consumer spending. This, combined with positive services activity reported earlier this week, is likely to curtail any downside pressures on the US dollar, at least until the Fed meeting's outcome.
We are optimistic about a continued upward movement in the USD/JPY pair.
Our Initial Forecast:
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CADJPY Higher Low formed. Strong buy opportunity.The CADJPY pair has formed a new Higher Low on the 4-month Channel Up pattern that started after the 2.5-year Channel Up bottomed its Bearish Leg on the August 05 Low. Being now below even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), this is technically a great buy opportunity.
The previous long-term Bullish Leg hit the 0.9 Fibonacci level before retracing, which gives us a 117.100 Target for Q1 2025.
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GBPJPY: Channel Up rally has started.The GBPJPY pair is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 49.167, MACD = -0.620, ADX = 31.719) as so far it remains under both the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200, which are very close to each other. Basically today we are having a clean technical rejection on those two. In spite of this, the prevailing pattern is a Channel Up and we have already started the 3rd bullish wave. The two prior started after a 1D RSI Bullish Cross and the shortest one has been +7.34%. We are aiming for this extension (TP = 201.900).
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USDJPY 1st 1D Golden Cross since June 2023! Bullish!The USDJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the October 21 2022 High. Today it formed its 1st Bullish Cross on the 1D time-frame in 1.5 year (since June 202 2023) and technically it is a very bullish development.
It is not just the standard bullish dynamics of this formation but also that last time we had a Golden Cross, the price bottomed upon the completion of a 1D MACD Bullish Cross, which we also got today and rallied to hit the Resistance 1 level.
As a result, this is a strong buy signal and our Target is just below Resistance 1 at 160.000.
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USDJPY Channel Up bottomed. Very strong BUY.USDJPY is trading inside a Channel Up and the price is starting to recover from November's bearish wave correction.
It has already crossed above the MA50 (4h) and only the MA200 (4h) remains to confirm the trend shift.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy after the price crosses above the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 162.500 (top of the Channel Up and under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is printing a cup into Channel Up pattern, identical to the previous Low of the Channel Up. An additional buy signal.
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USDJPY: Technical buy opportunity on RSI fractal.USDJPY turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.175, MACD = -0.460, ADX = 31.807) as it crossed under its 1D MA50 and has failed to recover it this week. Yet, this is technically a buy opportunity in disguise as this is the exact same pattern that the price did on the March 24th 2023 Low. After the initial bullish wave start of the long term Channel Up, the price pulled back again and formed that low with the RSI at 37.000. This is the level it is right now as well. We expect the bullish wave to resume the uptrend like it did then. We are again targeting the 1.786 Fibonacci extension, only a bit lower on the R1 level (TP = 161.870).
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CHFJPY: Bearish wave of Channel Down unfolding.CHFJPY is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.014, MACD = -1.180, ADX = 47.694) as it is more than halfway on the new bearish wave of the 5 month Channel Down. Having crossed under both the 1D MA50 and MA200, the 1D RSI appears to technically be on a level much like the July 25th rebound. This indicates that we are on an ideal sell entry. Short and target (TP = 164.300) the full -7.43% extension (the decline of the July-Aug bearish wave).
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AUDJPY: Channel Up bottomed. Bullish.AUDJPY turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.123, MACD = -0.750, ADX = 46.331) as it touched the bottom of the Channel Up. Unlike the price's LL decline, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Up from oversold range, which is the exact same formation it had after pricing the September 11th bottom. Consequently, we should be expecting the pair to bottom now and start the new bullish wave. The last one hit and even breached the R1 level and then pulled back to the 4H MA50. We are aiming for the same level (TP = 101.550).
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CHFJPY expected to bottom soon. Unique long-term buy opportunityThe CHFJPY pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Up pattern for more than 2 years (since the September 22 2022 High). More recently on September 16 2024, the price bottomed on its Higher Lows trend-line and the subsequent rebound to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, initiated a new pull-back that broke yesterday below its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is identical to the Channel's previous bottom formation in January 2023. The rebound that followed also got rejected near the 0.786 Fib and retraced all the way to the 0.236. Then it started a relentless Bullish Leg all the way to the 2.0 Fib extension. Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are identical and we are at the point where the RSI is about to break below its MA and give the buy signal.
As a result, we turn bullish on the CHFJPY pair, targeting 188.000 (near the top of the Channel Up).
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AUDJPY Channel Up approaching its bottom.The AUDJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 05 Low and yesterday broke below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The previous Low of the pattern was priced on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level as well as when the 1D RSI started rising after almost hitting the oversold (30.00) barrier.
As a result we are looking for a buy below 97.500, targeting 104.000 (just under the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, which was the last Higher High).
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USD/JPY:Yen Recovers as Interventions and Geopolitical Tensions The Japanese Yen has gained some ground against the U.S. Dollar, leading the USD/JPY pair to settle at 154.30 on Friday. This recovery is fueled by speculation that Japanese authorities may intervene in the foreign exchange market to support the domestic currency. Additionally, rising geopolitical tensions are providing further backing for the safe-haven JPY.
Though the Yen is finding support, a slight decline in the U.S. Dollar is also helping to limit the upward movement of the currency pair. As noted in our previous discussion, the Dollar Index (DXY) appeared poised for a retracement. However, at the time of writing, the USD has managed to regain some strength against the JPY, trading around 154.72.
Analysis from the Commitment of Traders (COT) report suggests a potential reversal in the market's direction. Furthermore, historical seasonality trends indicate a possible shift toward bearish conditions, reflecting patterns observed over the last decade. This raises the possibility of continued bearish momentum for the USD/JPY pair moving forward.
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6J1!: Yen Strengthens Ahead of Ueda's InsightsThe Japanese Yen (6J1!) has been demonstrating notable strength against its American counterpart throughout the Asian trading session, as traders position themselves ahead of a highly anticipated appearance by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo later today. His remarks on the economic outlook, inflation dynamics, and the timeline for potential interest rate hikes will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing the trajectory of the Yen.
As we approach Ueda's address, there is a palpable sense of anticipation in the markets. Investors are keen to understand how the BoJ plans to navigate the current economic landscape, particularly in light of growing inflationary pressures and global economic uncertainties. With the central bank grappling with the balancing act of stimulating growth while containing inflation, Governor Ueda's insights will be closely scrutinized for clues on the BoJ's monetary policy direction.
Nonetheless, there remains an undercurrent of uncertainty regarding the prospect of further policy tightening by the BoJ. This hesitation among traders may hinder the aggressive positioning of JPY bulls, leading to more cautious trading behavior as they await clearer signals from the central bank. The market's apprehension is evident, as many participants remain wary of overcommitting until Ueda provides more clarity on the BoJ's stance.
From a technical analysis perspective, the rebound in the Yen’s price has been particularly notable, as it has entered what we identify as a demand zone. This area indicates a clear oversold condition, which suggests that the currency may be primed for a reversal. The fact that retail traders are significantly short on the Yen adds another layer of intrigue; if the anticipated bullish movement occurs, these short positions could lead to a rapid shift in market dynamics.
Our forecasting models indicate that, when looking back over the last ten years, there is a strong possibility for the Yen to enter a bullish phase soon. Historical patterns suggest that, following periods of significant oversold conditions, the Yen has often embarked on upward price movements. As such, the current environment may present a unique opportunity for those looking to capitalize on potential appreciation of the currency.
As we await Ueda’s comments, all eyes will be on how his insights might either reinforce or challenge the current market sentiments surrounding the Yen. Any indications of a future tightening of monetary policy could catalyze a swift rally, while ambiguity could lead to heightened volatility. Ultimately, the interplay between investor sentiment, technical signals, and central bank communication will determine the Yen's trajectory in the hours and days ahead.
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EURJPY bottomed on the 1D MA50. +5.40% upside potential.The EURJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the September 16 Low. Yesterday it made a Higher Low on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded. This is identical to the post December 07 2023 Channel Up, which was also supported by its 1D MA50 until its very top (July 11 2024).
The 1D RSI sequences between the two fractals are also similar and even more importantly the Channel Up patterns appear to have a high degree of symmetry. So far the two Bullish Legs have risen by +5.40%.
As a result, we are expecting another +5.40% from yesterday's bottom, so our Target is just below it at 170.000.
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GBPJPY First 1D Golden Cross after 19 months. Strong BUY.The GBPJPY pair is forming today a Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame, the first such pattern in exactly 19 months (April 21 2023). Naturally this is a huge bullish signal alone, as technically the Golden Cross calls for upside action. But more specifically for this pair's price action, it indicates the high probability of an immediate aggressive push as the current formation is very similar to the April 2023 one.
As you can see, both were trading within a Channel Up up to the moment of the Golden Cross, having started after a 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test. The 1D CCI trading on Higher Lows below -100.00 (oversold) is a confirmation that the price Channel Up breaks aggressively to the upside.
The previous Golden Cross pushed the price just above the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, to a +18.40% rise. Throughout this time, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting the uptrend.
As a result, we turn long now on GBPJPY, targeting 215.000 (just above the 3.0 Fib extension).
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AUDJPY ShortThis price made a pullback from the bearish momentum formed in July - August, and has been confirming the fib levels between that range.
Also, it has been forming a rising flag since it touched the lowest low, which IMO is a strong indicator of a strong bearish momentum.
As for now is on the 0.5 fib level 99.95, and I do anticipate that the price will continue with the bearish momentum.
An analysis using a shorter timeframe will follow so that we can know our entry position.
USD/JPY: USD Faces Correction Ahead of Key Retail Sales DataThe Japanese Yen has strengthened as the US Dollar begins to correct downward in anticipation of upcoming Retail Sales data. Japan's GDP annualized growth for the third quarter was reported at 0.9%, a notable decline from the 2.2% growth seen in the second quarter. In response to currency market volatility, Japan’s Finance Minister Kato emphasized his commitment to taking necessary measures to counter excessive fluctuations in foreign exchange rates.
From a technical analysis perspective, the current price indicates a rebound in an area where multiple supply zones converge, suggesting the potential for a pullback of the USD against the JPY. Retail traders continue to show a bullish stance towards the US Dollar, while other market participants appear uncertain or bearish in their outlook.
Given the significant rally in the USD that followed the Trump election victory, we are observing for a possible correction. As these dynamics play out, attention to price patterns and broader economic indicators will be essential for traders navigating this market environment.
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USD/JPY Daily Chart AnalysisThe USD/JPY pair is currently moving within an upward channel, demonstrating a steady uptrend since the recent lows around 139.56. The pair has been respecting key Fibonacci retracement levels, which could act as areas of support and resistance.
Key Levels to Watch:
0.236 Fibonacci Retracement (156.67): This level has served as a resistance zone, and a breakout above could pave the way for a test of the recent highs around 157.84.
Support Zones: Immediate support is seen at the 0.382 retracement (153.40), with additional support at the 0.618 level (148.12). A break below the channel could see a retest of these supports.
Indicators & Trends:
Moving Averages: The 20-day and 50-day moving averages are acting as dynamic support levels, supporting the current bullish trend.
Volume: There was a recent increase in volume as the pair rallied, suggesting strong buying interest. However, watch for any drop in volume, as it could signal weakening momentum.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is approaching overbought territory, so caution is advised as the pair nears resistance zones.
Outlook:
The pair may experience consolidation between the 153.40 support and 156.67 resistance levels in the short term. A breakout above 156.67 could lead to a potential test of 157.84 and beyond. Conversely, a breakdown below the support trendline may shift momentum towards the downside, targeting lower Fibonacci levels and potentially the key support near 143.88.
Trading Plan:
Bullish Bias: Wait for a confirmed breakout above 156.67, aiming for the 157.84 level.
Bearish Bias : A confirmed break below the channel could signal a trend reversal, with initial targets near 150.75 and 148.12.
Always consider using appropriate risk management.
USDJPY: Buy opportunity inside the 1H MA200 and 4H MA100.USDJPY is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.138, MACD = 1.880, ADX = 50.518) which perfectly explains the Channel Up it's been trading in since October 8th. At the moment the price is on an aggressive bearish wave, which got accelerated today as it was rejected on the 1H MA50. The result is so far a direct hit on the 1H MA200 for the first time since Nov 10th. The last two HL were on the 4H MA100 however, so there is still some more room to fall but even on the current level the reward largely outweighs the risk. We are just over the 0.5 Fibonacci level afterall, which is where the November 5th low was formed. We're long, aiming for a +3.20% rise (TP = 158.500).
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EURJPY ShortThis currency had a bearish momentum when it touched 156 only to retract to the 0.5 fib level at 164.
If the price fails to break out of the 165 zone & a daily candle turns bearish by the end of this week, then it might continue / retract with the bearish momentum retesting the 156 level.
An analysis using a shorter time length will follow to indicate the best entry position.
USDJPY Bullish Cross on 1W MACD will push it higher.The USDJPY pair is having an excellent bullish run since our September 25 buy signal (see chart below), which was right at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up:
We're approaching our 161.800 long-term Target much faster than we expected but we've identified this time a short-term opportunity that can go along with the long-term one. We are past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross and when the previous Bullish Leg formed one on Aptil 14 2023, the price (which was already within a Channel Up) didn't stop the uptrend. On the contrary it extended it up until a little after a 1D Golden Cross was formed.
As a result we can target additionally 160.000 within a 2-month time-frame.
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