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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: With the completed downfall to our Completed Outer Coin Dip of $19,700 on March 10, the coin rebounded strongly to an Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and $27,000, respectively, as shown on the Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of February 17. The current upside target is the Intermediate Outer Coin Rally of $29,200 and Outer Coin Rally of $30,000 - The Mean Res $31,700 might be possible this week. Once these completed rallies are verified and validated by Trade Selecter System, we will see the pullback to Mean Sup $26,200.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Gold leads inflation by 20 yearsBank run crisis causes the current Fed fund rate to trade higher than the rest of the bond yields, what is its implication? As US CPI remain high, global equities will continue to be uncertain this year. Investors are now turning their attention to precious metals. Gold has started to move up since year 2000, it has appreciated more than 700%. However, the inflation and interest rates was stagnated the last 20 years. What's happening? Because in those years, I classified it as "Borrowed Time" A need for easy money policy by: 1) Increasing the money supply 2) Lowering interest rates Good times may be over, but I am seeing opportunities in the other set of assets - commodities. For traders - 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
The 3 Dimension Trading / Investing 3D Investing or Trading = Technical Analysis + Depth Analysis Depth Analysis: • Macro analysis or / and • Micro analysis or / and • Other analysis See the following video "3rd Dimension Analysis" link for other analysis. Many use either technical or fundamental analysis alone in their research work, I observed they likely to struggle with confidence to make the entry judgement call. We can develop a greater confidence in how we time the market by combining TA + FA. 3 types of gold for trading: • COMEX Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00 • E-mini Gold 0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50 • Micro Gold 0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of March 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin continued to downfall passed our Mean Supports of $21,500 and $20,476 this week to complete the Outer Coin Dip of $19,700. Once this completed knockdown is verified and validated by Trade Selecter System, we will see the rebound - the initial target of Mean Res of $20,900 with a possible extension to Mean Res of $22,500. The rally to Key Res of $25,000 and the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 is postponed until further notice.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Interest Rates are Moving Again - Breaking Above Recent High2 year, 5 year, 10 year and 30 year yield are all showing a similar characteristic: · Low established in 2020 · Major support trend started forming since then · Seem to have completed its retracement with a double-bottom · Resuming on its major support trend · Target to break above its recent all-time high set on Oct 22 Chart illustrated a 10 year yield futures market. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem, why? Borrowers (for eg. home owners with loan) take reference from interest rates and lenders (or investors) take reference on the yield. Interest rates and yield moves in tandem. Meaning if yields are indicating an upward momentum driven by mainly the investors, interest rates will soon to follow or vice-versa. Though interest rates are making a U-turn from its recent low and breaking above its all-time high. Are you seeing opportunity or feeling stress with more volatility ahead? My strategy: • Have lesser long-term hold on stocks • Trading into the indices - Sell into strength and trading into the volatility • Investing into commodities related asset • Buying into dip(s) on yield futures CME Micro Years Yield Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CBOT_MINI:10Y1!Long
by konhow
Gold as an Inflation Hedge? Myth Busted!COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ) and Gold Options ( COMEX:GC1! ) Gold is often hailed as an effective hedge against inflation. It generally increases in value as the purchasing power of the US dollar declines over time. Does this still remain true? Since January 2013, the US Consumer Price Index increased 29.4% cumulatively, while the 10-year total return of Gold is only 11.3%. Let’s demystify the gold myth. In fact, gold is by no means among the best-performing investment assets in the past decade! Let’s look at where investing $10,000 in different assets would take you in the past ten years: • If you held $10,000 in cash, you still have $10,000, a 0% nominal return; • If you bought a gold ETF fund, you would have $11,300, assuming it tracks gold price perfectly. However, after subtracting an average 0.5% a year in fund expense, you would end up with only $10,800, an annual return of merely 0.78%; • 5-year bank certificate of deposit (CD) yielded 1.0%/APR in 2013 and 1.5% in 2018. If you put the money in CDs back-to-back, you would have $11,322 now; • If you invest in a market index stock portfolio, the S&P 500 gained 159% in the past ten years. You would end up with $25,900; • If you bought bitcoin at $4.43 each in January 2013, you would have amassed nearly $1.6 million from the original $10K, an astonishing 15943% return! Actual data shows that holding gold, a non-yielding asset, underperformed other investable assets in the past decade. Gold price endured a double-digit decline, from $1,600 per troy ounce, to as low as $1,000, during the low-inflation period of 2013-2018. It shot up in 2019 as the US-China trade conflict intensified. The outbreak of Covid pandemic pushed gold to a record high of $2,075 in August 2020. As US economy remerged from Covid in 2021, gold price fell back to $1,700. Then, the Russia-Ukraine conflict pushed it back up above $1,900. However, when the Federal Reserve embarked on the path of rate increases, gold price fell sharply to $1,600. This was a period where US CPI raged between 7-9%, and gold completely failed as a defense against inflation. US Dollar Is the Primary Price Driver Gold prices rose on Friday as a rally in the dollar and bond yields paused. COMEX Gold Futures (GC) for April delivery closed up $14.10 to $1,854.60 per ounce. The rise comes on expectations that higher interest rates are on the way as reports show that US economy is still running too hot to quell high inflation. Dollar index was down 0.35 points to 104.68, while the US 10-year note was paying 3.977%, down 8.4 basis points. US dollar continues to call the shot for gold as investors assess the Fed's rate path. The above chart shows a perfect negative correlation between gold price and dollar index. When dollar rises, gold falls; and when dollar declines, gold advances. Last month, the dollar's bounce had weighed heavily on gold. The dollar rallied as a run of hot U.S. labor and inflation data saw traders’ expectations for more aggressive Fed rate increases. A stronger dollar can be a drag on commodities priced in dollar, making them more expensive to users of other currencies. In recent weeks, gold may have found some support on fears that an aggressive Fed could push the U.S. economy into recession, but a continued rise in U.S. Treasury yields, along with a relatively resilient dollar means limited upside . Rising Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, like gold. Short-term Trading Strategies At $1,850, gold is neither too expensive nor too cheap by historical standard. As such, I am not in favor of an outright directional trade, one way or the other. However, the market’s razor-thin focus on Fed rate actions will make a compelling reason for event-driven trades on Gold Futures and Gold Options. March is a very active month for macro-economic data releases: • March 8th, Fed Chair Powell will testify on the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee; • March 10th, Bureau of Labor Statistics will release February employment report; • March 14th, BLS will release the February CPI report; • March 22nd, Fed will announce its interest rate decision. Financial market tends to be sensitive to these data releases, as the latter could deliver huge shocks if actual data goes beyond market expectations. If you expect an upcoming data release to be bullish on gold, you could express this view with a long futures position on COMEX Micro Gold Futures (MGC). Each MGC contract has a notional value of 10 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June 2023 contract (MGCM3) is valued at $18,800. Initiating a long or short position requires a margin of $740. This is approximately 4% of contract notional value. In comparison, buying physical gold (i.e., gold bar or gold coin) and gold ETF fund requires 100% upfront investment. If gold price moves up to $1,950, the futures account would gain $700. Relative to the initial margin, this would equate to a return of +94.6%, excluding commissions. Alternatively, the same bullish view could be expressed by a call option of COMEX Gold Futures. Each COMEX Gold Future contract has a notional value of 100 troy ounces. At $1,880, a June futures contract (GCM3) is valued at $188,000. A call option on the 1,900 strike is quoted 37.0 on 3 March 2023. Acquiring 1 option requires an upfront premium of $3,700 (100 ounces per contract). If gold moves up to $1,950, the options account would be credited by $5,000 (=(1950-1900) x100), which represents a theoretical return of +35.1% from the original investment of $3,700. If you are bearish on gold, a short MGC futures or a put option on GC would be appropriate. Futures and options account would gain in value if the price of gold falls. Similar to investing in physical gold or gold ETFs, the biggest investment risk is betting the wrong direction. However, futures have a built-in leverage. In the case of MGC, each $1 movement in gold price translate into $10 variance in futures account balance. Options have a non-linear payout diagram. As the contract moves deeper in-the-money, options value grows exponentially. Long-term Trading Ideas After the active central bank action period is over, will gold price trend up or down? What would be the primary driver of gold price? Inflation, US dollar, interest rate, economic growth, or geopolitical crisis? All are possible, maybe a little bit of each. My research reveals that gold price has a relatively stable relationship with WTI crude oil (CL). Over the past ten years, each 1,000 barrels of WTI (1 CL) sell at a price between 150 and 300 ounces of gold for about 80% of the time. We could visualize an oil producer wanting to be paid by gold. When dollar fluctuates, he would adjust the dollar selling price to keep his gold acquisition stable. Therefore, whenever the price range is breached, gold price has a strong tendency of falling back in. In the next writing, I would explore a convergence/divergence idea between GC and CL. Stay tuned! Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trade set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, check out on CME Group data plans in TradingView that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
2
SPX Monthly - Adjusted for Real InflationThe assumptions are that money printing is real inflation as is often stated by Peter Schiff and M2 money supply is a good measure of the amount of money that has been printed into circulation. This data goes back to 1959 and makes the dot com bubble in 2000 look much more exuberant than current price levels. There is room for downside from here as the 1966 to 1974 decline and 2008 crash suggest. The chart also suggests that there has been no real stock market growth since the 1960s. It should be noted that the stock market was a good place to keep capital as an inflation hedge and a source of dividends and that cash kept over this time period would have lost pretty close to all of its value while earning no dividends. It demonstrates how important it is to not let cash sit in a bank and collect dust and to be financially literate. The central bank system punishes savers and forces participation in markets. The S&P can see a 75% increase or a 68% decrease from here and still be within its historical range. I’m leaning more bullish right now but these are very uncertain times, with the Fed having raised the fed funds rate to 4.75% and the stock market having declined for all of 2022. Nothing would surprise me but this chart helps to show that maybe the market isn’t as ridiculously priced as it looks when looking at the S&P 500 chart alone.
SP:SPX
by Skipper86
2
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The index Mean Res 4145 was the culprit target with the recent Intermediary Up Trend as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17; all three targets were hit - Mean Sup 4060, Mean Sup 4015, and the Inner Index Dip 3980. The newly created Mean Res 4028 is our intermediate upside target - Dead-cat bounce. Keep in mind that the current bearish market sentiment is intact. There is a significant possibility that the Mean Sup 3890 and retest could be undertaken of Key Sup 3785 and completed of the Inner Index Dip 3785 as well.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The Eurodollar continued a downward spiral this week, as shown on EUR/USD Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 17. The price action hit our Mean Sup 1.066 for several days, indicating its bearish mode. The leading downside target designation is Mean Sup 1.052 and the Inner Currency Dip of 1.046. Once this puppy hits our targets, we will see a revival to the upside aiming for the main target of the Mean Res 1.060.
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 24, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: After hitting our Key Res $24,500, as shown on the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of Feb 17, the coin is retreating aggressively, striking our target of the Mean Sup $23,500 as marked and showing an earmark move to Mean Sup $21,500. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence to the upside - the initial target of Key Res $25,000 with a rally all the way to the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and the Extended Outer Coin Rally of $27,000 targets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook The index continues to respect our Mean Sup 4060 target as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 10. The newly created Mean Res 4145 is our intermediate upside target - However, keep in mind that the temporary bearish market sentiment is intact, and a significant possibility that the Mean Sup 4060 retest could be undertaken with an eye on the inner stepping stone of Mean Sup 4015 and completion of the Inner Index Dip 3980.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
3
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Feb 17, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook: The coin is resting comfortably at our Key Res $24,500, as shown on the Bitcoin Daily Chart Analysis Update For the Week of Feb 16. We expect a pullback to our Mean Sup $23,500 for this week's price action. Once this puppy settles down, we will see a resurgence to the upside - the initial target of Key Res $24,500 (Retest) with a rally all the way to the Outer Coin Rally of $26,000 and Soon-To-Be the Outer Coin Rally of $27,000 outcome.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Gold a currency hedge assetThe 2 key reasons why gold keeps rising it is because 1) Gold is an inflation hedge asset 2) Gold is a currency hedge asset Content: • Gold is still an inflation hedge instrument • Gold is also a currency hedge instrument • How to invest & trade in Gold? CME Micro Gold Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.1 = $1 1 = $10 10 = $100 100 = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of February 10, 2023Technical Analysis and Outlook Spooz hit our Mean Sup 4060 target as shown on S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For the Week of Feb 3. With the confirmation of the Key Res $4180 in place, the current dead cat rebound is expected to take us to Mean Res 4120 - However, keep in mind that the bullish market sentiment is intact, and a significant possibility that the Key Res $4180 retest could be launched with an eye on completion of the Outer Index Rally 4230. But if all fails, the index will take us down to two Mean Support targets: 4015 and 3970, for this week's trading scenario.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
DAX H4: Too early for bears to enter? Fed did it again.Bears in Twitter start to ask themselves whether they were all wrong or they were too early to bet against the market after the Fed was hawkish-but-not-too-hawkish in yesterday's meeting. DAX is a heavily automotive, banks and other cyclic assets weighted European index. Europe has performed better than America, but if ECB decides to implement an even more hawkish strategy than that of the Fed, those "better European gains" will vanish relatively soon. That is why, together with the current economic, political and social-unrest context; I am beginning to feel bearish on DAX and CAC. DAX could be shaping a H&S pattern the next days that could end up pretty bad if inflation does not calm down, ECB continues to raise rates and unemployment increases. Therefore, my prediction is that DAX will not reach ATHs and stay around 15580-16250 to drop later on to 11350-13350. Could there be again a Head and Shoulders on its way?
XETR:DAXShort
by alexinve
2
2 Key Reasons Gold Keep RisingThere are two assets being the best hedge against inflation, they are stocks and commodities, especially the precious metals. How are they performing so far? Who is the real winner and how about if inflation persists, between stock & precious metals who will perform better in the near and further future, and why? Content: • Their performance in the last: (who is the winner?) i. 50 years ii. 20 years and iii. 3 years • Market outlook if inflation persisted • 2 key reasons for gold keep rising Gold as an inflation hedge has cast a lot of doubts. I hope today’s presentation has given you a better appreciation about Gold. 2 key reasons for gold keep rising • 1st Key - Easy money policy produces inflation - We all know by now printing money will cause inflation • 2nd Key – Gold is a currency hedge Some argue that with higher interest rates to come, Gold may face greater headwinds ahead because of a stronger dollar, we will discuss Gold as a currency hedge next week. CME Micro Gold Futures Minimum fluctuation 0.1 = $1 1 = $10 10 = $100 100 = $1,000 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
DJ:DJILong
by konhow
2