OIL #WTIC ticking higher into the $90'sNice little inverse head and shoulders
Yep!
#Inflation is sticky & persistent
High prices for goods & cost of living not only to remain high
but if the #fEd starts dropping rates expect another spike up
Inflation
TLT Treasuries Long breaks down under VWAP SHORTTLT on a 120 minute chart has continued its trend down since early December after a suddent
uptrend in November lasting for a two month until the end of 2023.
Inflation data is kicking the rate cut down the road of time.
Price has now fallen under the VWAP and all of the EMA lines including the EMA20.
Relative strength trending correlates with price . I conclude, TLT continues to be set up
SHORT or alternatively TBT LONG . I will take short trades at weekly highs on a 30-60
minute chart until signs of a reversal are seen on the chart.
COF - Capital One Drop and Pop LONGCOF is shown on 1 15 minute chart. The trade idea is to play the drop in a bank stock as a
reaction to the sticky inflation report and the idea that a rate cut already baked into stock
price is about to come off the table. This is a risky reversal trade. However, with risk comes
reward. The idea is on the chart. I will take a long trade here anticipating a return of 2%
and about seven times risk. A call option for an expiration of 4/19 will also be in the position,
striking 141. See also
FAZ Triple Leveraged Bearish Financial Sector LONGThe idea is on this FAZ 15 minute chart. This is a ply on the idea that a rate cut may get kicked
down the road and a rate increase may come into consideration as a result of the report
of "sticky inflation".
Australian dollar steadies after sharp slideThe Australian dollar has stabilized on Thursday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6524, up 0.19%. The Aussie plunged 1.75% a day earlier after US inflation accelerated and beat expectations.
US inflation has hit a bump, as March CPI accelerated to 3.5% y/y, up from 3.2% and above the market estimate of 3.4%. This is the second straight month that inflation has risen and is raising concerns that the Federal Reserve will delay lowering interest rates.
The markets have responded by slashing the odds of a rate cut in the upcoming meetings. A June cut is off the table and the odds of a July cut have dropped to 41%, down from 81% just one week ago. The Fed will understandably be reluctant to lower rates with inflation moving higher and the economy posting strong data such as last week’s blowout nonfarm payrolls.
In Australia, consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.6% in April, up from 4.3% in March and beating the forecast of 4.1%. This was the highest level since November and reflected sticky services inflation. Australia’s economy has been sluggish and GDP fell to 0.2% in the fourth quarter, the weakest print in five quarters. The slowdown in China has been a key reason why the Australian economy is struggling, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner.
China is grappling with deflation, a worrying sign of a weak economy. March CPI fell 1% m/m, after a 1% gain in February. This was lower than the market estimate of -0.5% and the lowest inflation rate in three years. On an annualized basis, inflation dropped to just 0.1%, down from 0.7% in February and shy of the market estimate of 0.4%.
China didn’t get any love from Fitch Ratings, which downgraded the country’s credit outlook to negative this week. Fitch highlighted China’s large fiscal deficits and rising government debt, although it did not lower China’s credit rating of A+.
AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6548 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.6596
0.6464 and 0.6416 are the next support levels
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
In the KOG report on Sunday we gave the extension levels of 2365 and 2372 as bullish targets which as we can see we're extending in to and completed one of them. Yesterday we said unless we broke below the bias level we were likely to take liquidity from higher again, so put caution on the short trades. Again, the opportunity presented itself to long the market which we gladly took for a level to level red box trade adding to the other pairs that hit TP's making this one of the biggest Months so far in terms of completed targets and pip capture in Camelot. For that reason, we're going to take it easy now and wait for CPI unless a clean opportunity arises.
So, what now?
For the remainder of the session and the Asian session we have resistance now 2350-55 which if we manage to hold could give us the potential swing down into the support levels 2330 and below that our bias level 2320! Break above, and we have added a new level for everyone as the potential target region before another expected RIP. We've left the original chart illustration from Sunday's KOG Report as we did say there will be an extension of the move, so for now we'll stick with it unless anything changes tomorrow. Please remember, pre-event price action will entail choppy market movement and conflicting patterns as well as the potential small range forming. Please be cautious on your trading!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Bearish Hedging Strategy LONG inverse ETFsThe idea is shown on this 120 minute. With the new sticky inflation data, the writing is on the
wall. Likely the rate cut will be kicked down the time road. When is in consideration may be
a rate hike in the meanwhile. Mortgage rates unchanged makes the banks suffer. Loan
applications are down. Treasuries are being affected. So are tech stocks that have a growth
perspective as a fundamental basis for anticipated futures growth propelling share price.
This hedging idea is a way to survive or even thrive in a chaotic and volatile market
environment and a means to treat an overload of bullish bias with an antidote of sorts.
EUR/USD to slump again after ECB decision? The EUR/USD plunged after the hotter-than-expected CPI, as traders reevaluated the odds of a Fed rate cut in June.
EUR/USD has now perhaps broken out of the range of its significant Simple Moving Averages.
Now we might get another pushdown in the lead up to or after the ECB interest rate decision tomorrow. The April 2 swing low of 1.07245 may prove pivotal. The previous session's decline was the biggest single-day decline since March 2023, so it will be interesting to see if this bearishness has been exhausted.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates unchanged but perhaps point towards the start of its own rate cutting cycle in June. ECB officials have already begun discussing this timeline, so tomorrow’s announcement might lack the bite of a CPI print.
Instead, traders could look for clues on future ECB policy during Christine Lagarde’s press conference following the rate decision.
JPY has had 180 next few years written over it for a while nowI wasn't going to post about this one as I imagine it's being covered by everyone what with the captain obvious setup on a basic horizontal but since I've covered the Yen before I may as well
I haven't re-visted this chart properly since I made some calls about that blue broadening wedge a few years back and the initial 152 resistance (see the related posts below) but one of these days in the not too distant future I will
The cyan channel that I spotted out when I looked at it last looks like it's the upper half of a bigger channel
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
THE KOG REPORT -CPIQuick update on the charts pre-event.
We'll keep it simple as for this, there is likely to be a lot of volume entering the markets on the release, and the movement can be extreme. A lot of traders are expecting this to pullback, and they may get the move, however, they could surprise everyone and continue this move to the upside before then bringing it down.
We have added our basic intra-day levels as well as the hots spots on the chart. We'll be looking for RIPs at the levels.
Immediate support stands at 2340 and below that 2320 which is our bias level, which if broken you can see where they can take the price. That's where we feel opportunities will present themselves to long the market.
Immediate resistance stands at 2380-5 and above that 2390-5, if broken, you can see where they can take the price before any attempt on the pullback short!
We'll stick with extreme levels, or, wait for the move to finish before we get involved. No need to throw ego's into calling the move this time as this one is an important one!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
lets talk about halving Take your time to readCRYPTO:BTCUSD This is not a trend analysis or signal of any kind just my own speculation about what may come to happen after the halving .
as we know the last cycle coincided with the fed cutting rates and the money printing going crazy like brrrrr .
although we can expect at least another round of rate cuts in 2024 nothing is really guaranteed this cycle .
we've been seeing consolidation in the BINANCE:BTCUSDT chart for the last couple months . now I'm not really bearish but what scares me is that last time we had the rate cuts then the halving kicked in and we gone from nearly 3k all the way to 64k before any major correction .
If a sell the news event was going to occur after the halving we could expect a few weeks to a couple months of downward selling pressure on bitcoin price before major upside gains .
I don't say such scenario will happen but it's better to be prepared incase of such event .
what i personally do is just have 50 percent of my capital ready to invest if the markets go down as the result of a black swan event because we do have the institutional support this cycle but at the same time after about 4 years of experience in the markets i know that brokers and institutions love to liquidate the retail before major moves .
So i think although the trend is bullish in the long term we might have extra volatility in the short term and it pays to be ready for any possible move .
thanks for your time.
use this information with due diligence.
Are Interest Rates going Higher?What would cause rates to move higher?
Inflation 2.0?
According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates.
If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future.
This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a 30 year bond bull market/ 30 year bear yield market.
Maybe the traditional 60 equity/40 bond gets toppled. Maybe we move to a 40 equity/60 bond portfolio.
If This rotation was to occur, the stock market would likely see a significant loss.
NZ dollar climbs ahead of RBNZ rate decisionThe New Zealand dollar has posted considerable gains on Tuesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6065, up 0.54% and its highest level since March 21.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets early on Wednesday and it’s practically a given that it will hold the cash rate at 5.5%. This would mark the sixth straight time that the RBNZ maintains rates and prolongs its “higher for longer stance”.
Investors will be interested in whether the RBNZ pushes back against market expectations of rate cuts – investors have priced in two cuts with a 70% probability of a third this year. The decision will not include updated economic forecasts or a news conference with Governor Orr, which could limit New Zealand dollar volatility around the meeting.
The markets are being aggressive in their pricing of rate cuts, mainly due to a weak economy, as GDP has contracted in four of the past five quarters. However, high inflation is a key reason why the RBNZ is hesitant to signal rate cuts are coming. In the fourth quarter, the inflation rate was 4.7%, well above the upper limit of the 1-3% target band. New Zealand releases first-quarter CPI next week, and the release will be a key factor in the central bank’s rate policy.
The RBNZ would prefer to have the Federal Reserve cut rates first, as this would boost the New Zealand dollar and weigh on inflation. The Fed has signaled rate cuts are coming but stronger than expected data, such as last week’s nonfarm payrolls, may lead the Fed to delay lowering rates.
NZD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6060. Above, there is resistance at 0.6107
0.6000 and 0.5953 are providing support
Where my 40k NKD target came from & why it could go higher laterI've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from
For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand
In theory there's no reason why a solid year can't be spent consolidating under that resistance a la 2006
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Must-know events for the trading week Must-know events for the trading week
The week ahead in the US will be marked by significant events, including the release of the FOMC meeting minutes and March inflation data.
Alongside the meeting minutes, investors will continue to analyze speeches from various Fed officials: Recent remarks from Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari revealed that he had anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. However, he noted that if inflation remains sluggish, no cuts may be necessary. This outcome would really surprise the market, which is mostly still expecting three cuts, starting in June.
Headline inflation is expected to rise for a second consecutive period to 3.4%, while the core rate is projected to decline to 3.7%, reaching its lowest level since April 2021.
In Europe, all eyes will be on the European Central Bank's meeting, where current interest rates are anticipated to be maintained. The likelihood of future rate cuts will be assessed by the market at the same time.
In Japan, investors will be monitoring potential intervention actions from the Bank of Japan to support the yen. Governor Kazuo Ueda will also be speaking during the week regarding the central bank's future steps.
Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the official cash rate unchanged at 5.5%. The RBNZ's latest forecast from February suggests that the OCR will remain steady until early to mid-2025, despite expressing increased confidence based on recent data.
YM ran to 40k without any resistance just like I said it wouldI've been saying for some time now that Dow Jones has _no_ relevant resistance till 40k and now here we are
If that resistance fades quickly then the next relevant resistance is at 45k and probably most retailers will come up with excuses to short it the whole way there also
"But how did you come up with that number?"
See for yourself heh this is a very clear cut chart at such high timeframes not too dissimilar to BTC and XAU
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below)
The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown
So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns
At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags)
At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here
The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically)
It has not moved since
I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Short term yields still weak, longer term reversedWhat a difference 11 hours makes.
The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening.
10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent.
This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT.
TVC:TNX
Interest Rates NOT showing cuts...Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do.
The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though.
10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone.
30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment.
#FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Japanese yen flirting with 152The euro is showing little movement on Wednesday. In the European session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0777, up 0.05%.
Inflation in the eurozone continues to decline. March CPI eased to 2.4% y/y, down from 2.6% in February and below of the market estimate of 2.6%. This matched November’s 28-month low and was driven by the continued slowdown in food inflation. Monthly, CPI rose to 0.8%, up from 0.6% but below the forecast of 0.9%.
Core CPI also declined, with a reading of 2.9% y/y. This was below the February gain of 3.1% and just shy of the market estimate of 3.0%. Core CPI, which is considered more significant than the headline release, has declined for an eighth straight month and dropped to its lowest level since February 2022. Germany’s inflation report, which was released yesterday, also indicated that inflation dropped in March, with headline CPI easing to 2.2% and core CPI to 3.3%.
The drop in inflation is encouraging news for the ECB, which meets next week. The central bank must balance weak economic activity, which would support another pause, against falling inflation, which would support calls to lower rates.
The ECB is likely to maintain rates next week but there is a strong probability that it will press the rate-cut trigger at the June meeting. The ECB may want to prepare the markets for a shift in monetary policy and we could see some dovish signals at next week’s meeting, which might weigh on the euro.
In the US, today’s ADP employment report kicks off a host of employment releases, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ADP report isn’t considered a reliable precursor to NFP, but investors are interested in any labour reports they can analyse ahead of the NFP release. ADP came in at 140,000 in February and is expected to rise slightly to 148,000 in March.
EUR/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.0753. Below, there is support at 1.0712
1.0808 and 1.0849 are the next resistance lines
XAG gearing up to take over the lead charge of the XAU breakoutThis was supposed to be tomorrow's post but since it looks as if the breakout could be underway as I'm typing I'm going to make it right now
I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
XAU ready to break out now that most goldbugs have lost interestI haven't posted on TV since Dec 2022 as I've been posting elsewhere (check my profile) but I'll begin duplicating some of my calls here and continue if I gather a decent audience here
I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money
Some very notable calls in recent years:
SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance)
CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k
FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115
TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68
NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100
NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120
NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105
NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
Pound stabilizes as shop inflation dropsThe British pound is steady on Tuesday after starting the week with losses. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2563, up 0.09%. On Monday, the pound fell 0.57% and dropped as low as 1.2539, its lowest level since February 14.
Inflation in UK stores fell to 1.3% y/y in March, according the British Retail Consortium (BRC). This was below the 2.5% rise in February and the market estimate of 2.2% and was the lowest level since December 2021. The BRC also reported that food price inflation fell to 3.7% y/y in March, its lowest level since April 2022. This was the 10th straight month that food prices inflation has decelerated.
The data points to headline inflation continuing to fall and has raised expectations for a rate cut from the Bank of England. The markets have priced in a quarter-point cut in June at 62%, with an outside chance of an initial quarter-point cut in May. The BoE has stuck to its script of “higher for longer”, maintaining rates at 5.25% for five straight times, but the March meeting signaled a possible shift in policy.
Governor Bailey said at the March meeting that the UK was “on the way” to winning the battle against inflation but signaled that rate cuts could be on the way. As well, eight MPC members voted to pause and one voted to lower rates at the March meeting, while at the previous meeting, two members voted in favor of a rate hike. The UK releases the March inflation report on April 16th and this release will likely have a significant impact on the BoE’s rate path.
GBP/USD Technical
GBP/USD is testing support at 1.2605. Below, there is support at 1.2552
There is resistance at 1.2704 and 1.2757
