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SP500 - #SPX melt up targets for cup and handle pattern.BLUE SKIES Would you have believed it If you were told a year ago. When every expert was predicting a recession. (which will come of course but when no one is expecting it ) So the conditions are set for a melt up I believe #Bitcoin bottoms very shortly maybe this week or next (grab some bitcoin miners!) ENJOY THE NEXT few months! #CNBC will trumpeting SOFT LANDING Investors will believe interest rates are falling because of low #Inflation Which is when the next slowdown will hit. This cycle has been crazy and hard to follow the main trend. The stimulus was unprecedented Remember this cycle started in 2009... 15 years ago We are near the end! But first SPX to smash 5000 and than potentially we hit that 6000 number
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BallaJi
2
$GBINTR -U.K Interest RatesECONOMICS:GBINTR (December/2024) source: Bank of England The Bank of England left the benchmark bank rate steady at 4.75% during its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, as CPI inflation, wage growth and some indicators of inflation expectations had risen, adding to the risk of inflation persistence. The central bank reinforced that a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate and that monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The central bank will continue to decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
ECONOMICS:GBINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$JPINTR - Japan's Interest RateECONOMICS:JPINTR (Devember/2024) source: Bank of Japan -The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its final meeting of the year, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and meeting market consensus. The vote was split 8-1, with board member Naoki Tamura advocating for a 25bps increase. Thursday's decision came despite the US implementing its third rate cut this year, as the BoJ needed more time to assess certain risks, particularly US economic policies under Donald Trump and next year's wage outlook. The board adhered to its assessment that Japan's economy is on track for a moderate recovery, despite some areas of weakness. Private consumption continued its upward trend, aided by improving corporate profits and business spending. Meanwhile, exports and industrial output remained relatively flat. On inflation, the YoY figures have ranged between 2.0% and 2.5%, driven by higher service prices. Inflation expectations showed a moderate rise, and the underlying CPI is expected to add gradually.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY (November/2024) source: Office for National Statistics - The annual inflation rate in the UK edged up for a second month to 2.6% in November 2024 from 2.3% in October, matching forecasts. It is the highest inflation rate in eight months, with prices rising at a faster pace for recreation and culture (3.6% vs 3% in October), mostly admission fees to live music events and theaters and computer games; housing and utilities (3% vs 2.9%), particularly actual rents for housing; and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2% vs 1.9%). In addition, transport prices fell much less (-0.9% vs -1.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars were partially offset by a downward effect from air fares. Meanwhile, services inflation was steady at 5%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI edged up 0.1%, less than 0.6% in October and matching forecasts. The core CPI rose 3.5% on the year from 3.3% in October but below forecasts of 3.6%. On the month, core prices stalled.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025Market Year Wrap 2024: Key Highlights and Outlook for 2025 The year 2024 has been a transformative period in the global financial markets, characterised by a mix of challenges and opportunities. Inflation battles, monetary policy shifts, economic uncertainties, and surprising bouts of optimism dominated the landscape. These forces created a volatile yet dynamic environment where some markets flourished while others struggled under significant pressure. From central bank interventions to geopolitical developments and technological advancements, every corner of the financial world experienced notable activity. In this article, we will take a detailed look at the major trends and events shaping the global economy in 2024 and provide insights into what lies ahead in 2025. Inflation and Interest Rates: A Balancing Act In 2024, inflation showed signs of moderation globally. In the United States, it stabilised around 2.7%, marking a notable shift that bolstered market confidence and set a cautiously optimistic tone for the broader economy. Throughout the year, rate cuts dominated monetary policy discussions. Following the unprecedented rate hikes implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, major central banks began scaling back rates. However, they had to walk a tightrope between a complex landscape of lower but still stubborn inflation and resilient labour markets and the necessity for monetary easing. The magnitude and pace of these cuts varied significantly, reflecting differences in economic conditions across regions and creating complex relationships in the forex market. Analysts widely anticipate that policymakers will adopt a more measured approach to easing monetary policy as 2025 unfolds. Most developed market central banks, excluding Japan, are expected to reduce interest rates to neutral levels by the year's end. However, if economic conditions deteriorate more than anticipated, there is potential for central banks to push rates below neutral to support growth. The Fed, in particular, faces a delicate balancing act, as it must carefully navigate potential policy developments—such as trade tariffs—that may not ultimately materialise. At the same time, any resurgence in inflationary pressures could prompt a shift toward a more restrictive rate trajectory in 2025 and beyond, further complicating the policy landscape. Forex Market: A Year of Divergence Currency markets in 2024 were shaped by a combination of monetary policy shifts, economic recovery efforts, and political developments. The US dollar experienced a rollercoaster year, initially depreciating against major currencies as markets anticipated the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it rebounded toward the end of the year, influenced by post-election optimism and expectations of protectionist trade policies under the Trump administration. The British pound demonstrated resilience throughout 2024, supported by the Bank of England’s patient and measured approach to monetary policy. Despite potential rate cuts, the pound maintained its strength, reflecting confidence in the UK’s economic fundamentals. In contrast, the euro faced significant headwinds. The ECB’s aggressive easing measures widened interest rate differentials with the pound and the dollar, weakening the euro. By the end of the year, trade uncertainty stemming from potential US tariffs weighed heavily on the euro, given the Eurozone’s dependence on global trade. The Japanese yen experienced mixed fortunes, bolstered by the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, the highest level since 2008. This move provided much-needed support for the yen, although concerns about potential US trade policies created downside risks. Meanwhile, commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars saw fluctuations driven by interest rate differentials, global trade dynamics and their respective economies' ties to the United States and China. Analysts caution that President Trump’s tariff policies could intensify the overvaluation of the US dollar in 2025, potentially heightening the risk of global financial instability. The prospect of trade restrictions may add complexity to an already volatile economic landscape. Commodity Markets: Precious Metals Shine, Oil Struggles Commodity markets have seen a resurgence in investor interest. According to data from WisdomTree and Bloomberg, the proportion of investors allocating resources to commodities rose to 79% in 2024, compared to 71% in 2023—an expected rebound after a challenging year for commodities in 2023. Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, emerged as top performers. As of time of the writing on 11th December, gold prices surged by over 30%, while silver outpaced gold with a 35% gain. Several factors drove these impressive performances, including geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election, and strong demand from emerging market central banks. According to analysts, these factors should continue supporting precious metals in 2025. Natural gas prices also experienced significant growth, rising 30% to 50% across major markets in Asia, Europe, and North America. Colder weather forecasts have fueled demand, particularly in Europe and Asia. Analysts suggest that this bullish sentiment in gas markets is likely to persist through the winter, with prices unlikely to see significant declines until well into 2025. However, high gas prices are expected to increase power costs globally, straining fragile economic growth in key regions such as China and Europe while rekindling inflationary concerns. Oil, however, faced a challenging year despite geopolitical crises and production cuts. One of the reasons is a weak demand, particularly from China. In the United States, gasoline inventories exceeded long-term seasonal levels. According to analysts, the growing transition to electric vehicles in developed markets represents a long-term challenge for oil demand. Although some analysts anticipate a recovery in 2025 as OPEC+ production cuts take effect and geopolitical risks persist. Stock Markets: Tech Leads the Charge The US stock market delivered robust performances in 2024, reaching new record highs, with the technology sector at the forefront. Innovations in artificial intelligence (AI) played a pivotal role in driving growth, with major companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, and Amazon reporting strong earnings. This momentum boosted broader indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 recording gains of 28.57% and 27.4%, respectively, as of 10th December. The broader market also benefited from declining inflation, interest rate cuts, and better-than-expected corporate earnings. These factors may contribute to the stock market growth in 2025. However, stretched valuations temper some of the optimism, and concerns about potential trade tariffs add a layer of uncertainty. Looking Ahead to 2025: Key Market Drivers As we look ahead to 2025, several critical factors are poised to influence the direction of financial markets. Central Bank Policies Central banks will remain pivotal in shaping financial markets in 2025. The balance between maintaining growth and addressing inflationary pressures will be a key theme for central banks throughout the year, influencing the strength of equity markets. Interest rate differentials will play a significant role in determining currency movements. Global Economic Recovery The global economy is expected to continue rebounding from pandemic effects. GDP growth, employment trends, and trade balances will be key factors influencing financial markets. Trade War Uncertainty Potential trade tariffs pose a significant risk. The scope, products, and geographies targeted will determine the impact on global GDP, inflation, and interest rates. Any escalation in trade tensions could disrupt markets and strain economic recovery. Artificial Intelligence and Innovation AI and emerging technologies may drive productivity gains, offering an upside to global growth. By boosting efficiency and reducing costs, AI could also exert disinflationary pressure, influencing economic dynamics in the long term. Geopolitical Tensions Geopolitical risks, including trade disputes and political conflicts, remain unpredictable but could disrupt markets. Final Thoughts: Embracing Opportunities Amid Volatility The year 2024 brought its share of challenges and opportunities, showcasing the resilience and adaptability of global markets. From navigating geopolitical uncertainties and evolving monetary policies to embracing the transformative potential of technologies like artificial intelligence, market participants faced a dynamic landscape. Looking ahead to 2025, the horizon offers new opportunities. Continued advancements in innovation, shifts in economic policies, and the resolution of key global tensions could set the stage for exciting market fluctuations. Use the new year to test your skills and look for new opportunities! This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
by FXOpen
2
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: Bitcoin's repeated pullback in this week's trading session by upholding firmly at the Mean Sup 96000 price level within the completion of the Inner Coin Rally 103600 is now noted. Recent analyses indicate that the cryptocurrency will likely retest the completed Inner Coin Rally 103600 by navigating the weak Mean Resistance 102300. This movement is anticipated to revitalize its upward trajectory toward the projected Outer #1 Coin Rally 110000 and beyond. Furthermore, a potential decline to the Mean Support 97000 would prepare the market for the subsequent phase of a bullish trend.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
1
Swiss National Bank cuts by half-point, Swissy dipsThe Swiss franc is down on Thursday following the Swiss National Bank rate announcement. In the North American session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8880, up 0.43% 80on the day at the time of writing. Today's Swiss National Bank meeting was live, with the market uncertain as whether the SNB would cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. In the end, the central bank opted for a jumbo 50-bp cut, bringing the cash rate to 0.50%. The driver for the today's oversized cut was the November inflation report, which came in at -0.1% for a second straight month. Inflation hasn't posted a gain in six months and the SNB is concerned that inflation could fall below the 0%-2% target. The 50-bp cut marks the SNB's biggest rate reduction in 10 years. In its statement, the Bank pointed to lower-than-expected inflation, risks over US economic policy and political uncertainty in Europe. The statement was somewhat dovish, noting that "the forecast for Switzerland, as for the global economy, is subject to significant uncertainty". Today's rate cut marks the fourth reduction this year. The SNB has been aggressive in its easing cycle, with the twin goals of avoiding deflation and combating the Swiss franc's appreciation. The SNB does not want a highly-valued Swiss franc as this hurts the critical export sector. The central bank implemented a negative rate policy until mid-2022 and the SNB has not ruled out a return to negative rates. After the meeting, SNB President Martin Schlegel said that today's 50-bp cut had reduced the probability of negative rates. The SNB also released its updated inflation forecast at today's meeting. The September inflation report was revised downwards, with a forecast of 1.1% in 2024 and 0.3% in 2025. USD/CHF has pushed above resistance at 0.8860 and is testing resistance at 0.8879. Above, there is resistance at 0.8903 0.8836 and 0.8817 are the next support levels
by OANDA
USD/CHF edges up ahead of SNB rate decisionThe Swiss franc is slightly lower on Wednesday. In the European session, USD/CHF is trading at 0.8845, up 0.19% on the day. 'Tis the season of central bank decisions, with four major central banks making rate announcements this week. The Swiss central bank meets on Thursday and a rate cut has been fully priced, but what will the SNB do? The market has currently priced a 50-basis point cut at 60% and a modest 25-bp cut at 40%. Just one week ago, the odds were 70-30 in favor of a 50-bp cut. Inflation declined by 0.1% in November and Switzerland hasn't posted a gain in inflation since May. The signs of deflation support the case for a jumbo 50-bp cut. Still, central banks prefer modest rate moves in 25-bp increments and with the cash rate at just 1%, policymakers may opt for a 25-bp cut. US inflation for November was a non-event for the US dollar, which has shown little movement today against the major currencies. Headline CPI ticked higher to 2.7% y/y up from 2.6% in October, while the core rate rose 3.3% y/y for a third straight month. Monthly, headline CPI rose from 0.2% to 0.3% and the core CPI rose was unchanged at 0.3%. The data matched expectations which explains the muted response of the US dollar. In the aftermath of today's inflation data, the market expectations for a rate cut at the Dec .18 meeting have jumped. The rate odds for a quarter-point have climbed to 97%, compared to 88% immediately prior to the release. The Fed has lowered rates twice this year and is poised for a third cut next week, even though the inflation downswing has stalled and inflation remains higher than the Fed's 2% target. USD/CHF tested resistance at 0.8853 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 0.8876 0.8810 and 0.8787 are the next support levels
by OANDA
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
GBPUSD Fundamental AnalysisThe Pound Sterling trades sideways near 1.2750 against the USD as investors await the US inflation data for November. The impact of US inflation should be limited on Fed interest rate prospects unless there is a dramatic deviation from expectations. Investors expect the BoE to leave interest rates steady at 4.75% on December 19. Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous:0.2% Core Inflation Rate MoM forecast: 0.3% previous: 0.3% The Pound Sterling strives to reclaim the key resistance of 1.2800 against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.2720. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Depending on how the inflation information is received, it could see the FX:GBPUSD claim 1.2800 or head down to 1.2500
by luak
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY November/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China - China’s annual inflation rate unexpectedly eased to 0.2% in November 2024 from 0.3% in the previous month, falling short of market forecasts of 0.5% and marking the lowest figure since June. This slowdown highlighted mounting deflation risks in the country despite recent stimulus measures from Beijing and the central bank's supportive monetary policy stance. Food prices rose the least in four months (1.0% vs 2.9% in October), driven by softer increases in both fresh vegetables and pork. Meantime, non-food prices remained unchanged (vs -0.3% in October), with further rises in the cost of healthcare (1.1% vs. 1.1%) and education (1.0% vs 0.8%) and more declines in prices of transport (-3.6% vs -4.8%) and housing (-0.1% vs -0.1%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% yoy, the most in 3 months, after a 0.2% gain in October. Monthly, the CPI fell 0.6%, surpassing October's 0.3% fall and the estimated 0.4% drop while pointing to the sharpest decrease since March.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
AUD/USD soars as China's inflation dipsThe Australian dollar continues to takes traders on a roller-coaster. AUD/USD has surged 0.85% on Monday, recovering most of the 1% decline on Friday. In the European session, the Australian dollar is trading at 0.6443 at the time of writing. The week ended with a rebound from US nonfarm payrolls. In November, nonfarm payrolls climbed by 227 thousand, above the market estimate of 200 thousand. This followed a very weak October report, which was revised upwards to 36 thousand from 12 thousand. The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% as expected, up from 4.1% in October. The employment data has raised expectations of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 18 meeting, with the odds currently at 87%, up sharply from 62% a week ago. The Australian dollar took a tumble after the strong nonfarm payroll numbers, but has quickly recovered after China's inflation was lower than expected. In November, CPI eased to 0.2% y/y, down from 0.3% in October and short of the market estimate of 0.5%. Monthly, CPI declined by 0.6%, down from -0.3% in October and lower than the market estimate of -0.6%. The weak Chinese inflation data has raised expectations that China's central bank will respond by lowering interest rates. That would help boost the economy and increase demand for Australian exports and  the Australian dollar has responded with sharp gains today. The Reserve Bank of Australia  meets on Dec. 10 and is widely expected to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, where it has been for over a year. The markets aren’t expecting a rate cut before May 2025, although a surprise decline in inflation in the coming months could push the central bank to lower rates in Q1 2025. AUD/USD has pushed above resistance at 0.6407 and is testing resistance at 0.6492. Above, there is resistance at 0.6492 0.6356 and 0.6322 are the next support lines
by OANDA
1
Australian dollar eyes GDPThe Australian dollar is drifting on Tuesday. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6461, down 0.20% on the day at the time of writing. Australia’s economy is expected to improve in the third quarter, with a market estimate of 0.4% q/q. This follows a disappointing gain of 0.2% in Q2, the weakest growth in five quarters, as household spending declined. On a  yearly basis, GDP is expected to tick up to 1.1% compared to 1% in the second quarter. The Australian economy continues to groan under the weight of high interest rates, which the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented in order to tame high inflation. Now that inflation has come down, there is pressure on the RBA to respond with lower rates. The RBA has become an outlier as most major central banks are in the middle of an easing cycle while the RBA has held rates for over a year. RBA Governor Bullock has remained hawkish, reiterating that underlying inflation is too high for the RBA’s liking and that a rate hike is not off the table. Headline inflation has fallen to 2.1%, well within the RBA’s target bank of 2%-3%, but the RBA remains concerned about underlying inflation, which  accelerated in October to 3.5%, up from 3.2% a month earlier. The market isn’t buying the warning of higher rates and expects the next rate move to be a cut sometime in mid-2025. That means that consumers will have to grapple with high rates for months, barring an unexpected fall in underlying inflation. In the US, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that he is leaning toward a cut in December but could change his mind if inflation surprised on the upside. The US releases November CPI one week prior to the rate announcement and the release will be a key factor as to whether the Fed cuts or maintains interest rates. AUD/USD Technical AUD/USD tested resistance at 0.6478 earlier. Next, there is resistance at 0.6514 0.6441 and 0.6405 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Why Cost of Living is Still a Concern?Why is the cost of living still a concern, even though inflation has declined to 2.6%? In many elections over the past two years, voters have ranked inflation as their top concern. As we can see, the prices of many commodities remain above pre-COVID levels, with gold and meat prices currently much higher than they were at the inflation peak in 2022. Consciously or unconsciously, both investors and consumers seem to feel that the cost of living will remain elevated for a prolonged period. Moreover, there is always a risk that inflation might creep back up again. Feeder Cattle Futures & Options Ticker: GF Minimum fluctuation: 0.00025 per pound = $12.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:GF1!Long
by konhow
8
Can the Brazilian Real Survive its Perfect Economic Storm?In the intricate world of global finance, few narratives are as compelling as Brazil's current economic crucible. The Brazilian real stands at a precipice, buffeted by a confluence of domestic policy missteps and international economic pressures that challenge the very foundations of its monetary stability. President Lula's administration finds itself wrestling with a complex challenge: balancing ambitious social spending with the cold, hard realities of fiscal discipline. The currency's dramatic decline—losing nearly 20% of its value in recent months—represents more than a mere statistical fluctuation. It is a profound referendum on investor confidence, reflecting deep-seated concerns about Brazil's economic management. The potential depreciation to 7 reals per dollar looms like a specter, threatening to unleash inflationary pressures that could destabilize the entire economic ecosystem, from local markets to international trade relationships. What emerges is a high-stakes economic drama with global implications. The Brazilian real's struggle is not just a national issue, but a microcosm of the broader challenges facing emerging economies in an increasingly unpredictable global financial landscape. As central bank governors, international investors, and policymakers watch with bated breath, Brazil stands at a critical juncture—its choices will not only determine its economic trajectory but potentially reshape perceptions of emerging market resilience in the face of unprecedented economic volatility.
Long
by signalmastermind
Cosmos (ATOM)📊 Comprehensive Analysis of ATOM 🔍 Overview: ATOM, after experiencing a significant decline, entered a downward channel with a slight slope toward its weekly support level. With notable trading volume entering, it managed to rise strongly above the weekly support zone and the bottom of the descending channel. Currently, it is moving toward the top of the descending channel, where a critical weekly resistance (red zone) lies, with the possibility of a correction at this level. 🕰 Technical Analysis: 🔸 Current Status: The price is approaching the top of the descending channel and the weekly resistance (red zone). For buyers who entered at the channel's bottom, partial profit-taking in the red zone is a reasonable strategy. 🔸 Key Levels for Entry and Price Targets: Entry: Confirmation of price stabilization above the weekly resistance (red zone) is essential for re-entry. Targets: Breaking this resistance could push the price toward the yellow and green zones. 🔸 RSI Status: If the weekly RSI enters the Overbought zone, the likelihood of breaking the weekly resistance increases. This breakout may lead to a sharp price movement upwards, with the potential to reach Over-Extended levels. 🎯 Price Levels: Short-Term Target: Weekly resistance (red zone). Mid-Term Target: Yellow zone after breaking the resistance. Long-Term Target: Green zone and Over-Extended levels. 💡 Summary: Bullish Scenario: Breaking and stabilizing above the weekly resistance could lead to sharp upward movement toward higher targets. Bearish Scenario: If the resistance is not broken, a price correction toward lower supports (such as the middle line of the channel) is possible. 📌 Recommendation: Prioritize risk and capital management. Confirmation of resistance breakout with high volume and appropriate RSI conditions is crucial.
Long
by alizeynali69
$EUIRYY -Europe CPI (November/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY November/2024 source: EUROSTAT Euro Area Inflation Rate Rises to 2.3% as Expected -The annual inflation rate in the Eurozone accelerated for a second month to 2.3% in November from 2% in October, matching market expectations, preliminary estimates showed. This year-end increase was largely expected due to base effects, as last year’s sharp declines in energy prices are no longer factored into annual rates. Prices of energy decreased less but inflation slowed for services.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Yen soars as Japan’s core inflation jumpsThe Japanese yen has surged higher on Friday after a strong inflation release. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.19, down 0.87% on the day. Earlier, the yen has broken below the symbolic 150 level for the first time since Oct. 21. Tokyo Core CPI, a key inflation indicator which excludes fresh food and energy, rose 2.2% in November, above market expectations of 2.1% and above the October gain of 1.8%. Tokyo CPI jumped 2.6% in November, blowing past the October reading of 1.8% and the forecast of 1.9%. The robust inflation data has sent the yen sharply higher as expectations for a December rate hike have climbed. The markets still aren’t sure which way the wind is blowing and have priced a December cut at around 60%. The Bank of Japan won’t win any points for transparency about its rate plans but the BoJ has hinted that its plans to continue raising rates and moving towards normalization. If the BoJ stays on the sidelines next month, it is expected to trim rates in early 2025. The BoJ has more on its mind than inflation when it comes to rate policy. The yen has been on a miserable slide since early October, although it has shown some strength this week. The BoJ is under pressure to raise rates in order to support the yen, although a quarter-point rate may not provide much of a boost. If the yen continues to lose ground and moves back towards the 155-160 level, we can expect the Ministry of Finance and the BoJ to warn about a possible currency intervention. This would be a last resort but Tokyo has carried through with interventions when it felt the yen was depreciating too quickly. USD/JPY has pushed below several support lines today. Currently, there is weak support at 149.89, followed closely by 149.63 152.05 and 152.54 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
$USCPCEPIMM -U.S PCE (October/2024)ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM October/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis -The US core PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge to measure underlying inflation, rose by 0.3% from the previous month in October 2024, the same pace as in September and matching market forecasts. Service prices rose by 0.4%, while goods prices decreased 0.1%. Year-on-year, core PCE prices rose by 2.8% in October, the most in six months, also in line with market estimates.
ECONOMICS:USCPCEPIMM
by Mr_J__fx
Yen rally fizzles, Tokyo Core CPI expected to riseThe Japanese yen is lower on Thursday, after climbing 2.4% over the past two trading sessions. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 151.83, up 0.57% on the day. On the data calendar, Japan releases Tokyo Core CPI. In the US, the financial markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday and there are no US events. Tokyo Core CPI, a leading indicator of nationwide inflation trends, will be released on Friday. The market estimate for November stands at 2.1% y/y, following a 1.8% gain in October, which was the lowest level since April. The headline rate is expected to rise from 1.8% to 1.9%. October inflation numbers have been mixed. The Bank of Japan Core CPI index surprised on the downside with a 1.5% gain, down from 1.7% in September. However, services inflation inched up to 2.9%, up from 2.8% in September and above the forecast of 2.5%. If the Tokyo inflation release accelerates as expected, it will likely raise expectations of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the Dec. 19 meeting. Inflation isn’t the only item on the minds of BoJ policymakers. There is significant political uncertainty both at home and abroad. Prime Minister Ishiba lost his majority in parliament in the October election and needs opposition support to pass a supplementary budget. In the US, President-elect Trump is threatening to slap tariffs on its trading partners, which could have massive negative implications for Japan’s auto industry, a key sector of the economy. On Wednesday, US GDP (second estimate) confirmed the initial estimate gain of 2.8% for the third quarter. This indicates solid economic growth, which has been helped by strong consumer spending. The worries about a recession have subsided and the Fed has signaled that it plans to gradually continue trimming interest rates. USD/JPY is testing resistance at 151.60. Above, there is resistance at 152.75 149.97 and 148.82 are the next support levels
by OANDA