Indextrading
NQ1!: CONFIRMED CHANNELS & OVERSUPPLY MOVE ON 12/13Note: In the chart above I have provided a clear distinction between what I would consider to be CONFIRMED CHANNELS that have been held for a considerable amount of time.
Points:
1. With todays trading day on 12/13 we moved back into oversupply territory where price action failed to hold.
2. Oversupply move confirms a rejection of the 200 EMA Line.
3. Key Level for NQ1! to hold is 11,600 or we can be set to see new lows and lower highs.
4. Current channel we are resting on will collapse if NQ1! decides to break past 10,600 this would be the equivalent of $SPY breaking 350.
AUS200running trade,, waitting for my traget.. nice trade.. beautiful trade.. volume imbalance , cot. shifting order flow , sequencing..
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash.
* BOUNCE WATCH . It's volatile week with investors preparing for another FFR hike (12/14) that is widely expected to be 50bps (with a chance at 75bps) as China continues to formally lax their Covid-Zero restrictions in major cities like Beijing where people with a negative PCR test result are now allowed to congregate in certain public places . This has investors torn over a China reopening rally and more flight from Risk-On assets to DXY and US Treasurys with further FFR hikes. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian energy infrastructure as Russia prepares to ban the sale of Russian oil to buyers participating in the new $60 price cap imposed by the G7 yesterday . In the coming years it would be reasonable to expect more of a push toward renewables like Solar energy in response to the geopolitical factors that are causing oil prices to be unsustainably volatile.
VIX, Metals, Agriculture, NI225, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. DXY, US Treasurys, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos (mixed), Energy, CNYUSD and N100 are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23 .*
Price is currently trending down at $3954 as it approaches a $3913 minor support after being rejected by the 200MA (~$4058 minor resistance). Volume is currently Low (moderate) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. The VP Point of Control is at $3913 minor support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4102, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50 as it tests 52.68 support, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~46. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 28, the next support is at 17. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 48 as it risks losing 55.35 minor support if it breaks down further. ADX is currently trending down at 18.53 as Price is also trending down, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$4040 as resistance before potentially retesting $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4040 .
SPX Model Trading Plans for FRI. 12/02: NFP FridayFed Pivot Hope Turning Into a Bull Trap Nightmare?
After 20 days of meandering around 3950/4000 level, the index rocketed out of the range to a session high of 4093.50 on the FOMC day, 11/30/22. This morning's Non Farm Payrolls data could be suggesting that it could potentially be an "irrational exuberance", and the futures' reaction so far post-NFP points to this proving to be the case. Of course, how the index trades in the regular session and how it closes today will hold further clues to this.
Trading Plans for FRI. 12/02:
Positional Trading Models: Our positional models went long on 11/29/22 at 3950.89, with a 40-point trailing stop. The long rode the post-FOMC spike up and stayed long for another session, finally hitting the trailing stop yesterday with an exit at 4060.51 - for a gain of 109.62 index points!
For today's session, models indicate going long on a break above 4040, with a 35-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4008, with a 36-point trailing stop. Models also indicate instituting a break-even exit once a trade is in profit by 12 points.
Aggressive Intraday Models: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4040, 4022, or 4007 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4018 or 4000 with a 10-point trailing stop.
Models indicate long exits on a break below 4054, and short exits on a break above 3991. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 09:31 am ET or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check our results to see for yourself how our published model trading plans have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURES AND NOTICES - READ CAREFULLY:
(i) This article contains personal opinions of the author and is NOT representative of any organization(s) he may be affiliated with. This article is solely intended for informational and educational purposes only. It is NOT any specific advice or recommendation or solicitation to purchase or sell or cause any transaction in any specific investment instruments at any specific price levels, but it is a generic analysis of the instruments mentioned.
(ii) Do NOT make your financial investment or trading decisions based on this article; anyone doing so shall do so solely at their own risk. The author will NOT be responsible for any losses or loss of potential gains arising from any investments/trades made based on the opinions, forecasts or other information contained in this article.
(iii) Risk Warning: Investing, trading in S&P 500 Index – spot, futures, or options or in any other synthetic form – or its component stocks carries inherent risk of loss. Trading in leveraged instruments such as futures carries much higher risk of significant losses and you may lose more than you invested in them. Carefully consider your individual financial situation and investment objectives before investing in any financial instruments. If you are not a professional trader, consult a professional investment advisor before making your investment decisions.
(iv) Past performance: This article may contain references to past performance of hypothetical trades or past forecasts, which should NOT be taken as any representation or promise or guarantee of potential future profits. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
(v) The author makes no representations whatsoever and assumes no responsibility as to the suitability, accuracy, completeness or validity of the information or the forecasts provided.
(vi) All opinions expressed herein are subject to change at any time, without any notice to anyone.
everything could have just changedif we see downside in semiconductors and rotation between sectors tha is slower and more masured leading to slower losses in indices, and the countertrend movement breaks out into a larger rebound i would call this the beginning of a broader market recovery. the inverse is that we traverse slightly lower, and extend backwardation with resistance around estimate (we are now below) and not seeing support till lower envelope. basically the trend is threatening to reverse in short and in long term, and if sss signal stays green index could be a buy. top of channel is not out of the question.
China A50 set for a corrective bounce?The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation and a move back towards the 13,000 resistance zone.
This could be the final move of a 3-wave correction, before it reverts to its bearish trend.
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BullishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% DXY, 30% Cash.
*All markets reacted negatively to news of Chinese citizens protesting the Covid lockdowns in fear of more supply chain disruptions. The Pentagon is currently devising a proposal to send smaller precision bombs that can be fitted onto rockets and allow for Ukraine to strike behind Russian lines as the US and NATO military inventories are dwindling in response to a now 9-month constant bombardment by Russia on Ukraine. Russia's plan to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainian's during what is expected to be a very cold winter is reminiscent of The Holodomor (Great Famine) under Stalin in 1932-1933 when Russia ignored natural factors and enacted repressive policies that contributed to a massive decline in Ukraine grain and killed 3-5 million people as a result. It appears that Russia is also intentionally exhausting military supplies from NATO countries (US mainly); which could possibly hamper future US intervention during potential future altercations between China and Taiwan. Elon Musk is "waging war" against Apple after Apple decided to suspend advertising and is mulling the idea of removing Twitter from the App Store . Apple takes 30% of all sales within the App Store, so Twitter would only be seeing $5.60 of the $8 iPhone users would pay for a Blue-Check. BlockFi did what everyone expected and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy today .
DXY, Short-Term US Treasurys, US Equity Futures, EURUSD, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, Gold and VIX are up. Long-Term US Treasurys, US Equities, Cryptos, CNYUSD, NI225, HSI, N100, Energy and Agriculture are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29 ; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. *
Price is currently trending up at $106.66 after bouncing off of the 50MA at ~$105.35, the next resistance is at $108. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $108.46, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 40.73 and is still technically testing 39.43 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 38.83 as it approaches a test of 45.65 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up at -1.28; it's still technically testing -1.21 support and if it can cross above -1.18 it would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 26.85 as Price bounced off a critical support level (the 50MA), this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to continue higher then it will likely retest $108 resistance . However, if Price falls back down here it will have another chance to formally retest the 50MA at ~$105.35 as support before potentially retesting $103.15 support for the first time since June 2022. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $105.35.
SPX 4H Analysis📈Trade Idea📉
🟡 #S&P500 Index 4H
✍️We can have two trading scenarios for this index. Considering that S&P is in the Equilibrium range, it can move as a continuation movement (CP) to the supply ranges in the chart (Premium), of course, with the condition of penetrating and closing a four-hour high candlestick (PDH-PWH). In this case, consider two scenarios for trading.
In the first scenario, you can use the supply ranges specified in the chart to activate sell orders.
The second scenario is for traders who are looking for a long stop in this index, they can use the block order limits specified in the chart. For trading in these areas, you can place your trade as a limit by observing the stop loss.
🟢Minor Order Block >🟢3640$ -3684$
🟢Major Order Block >🟢3740$ -3780$
🔴Minor Order block >🔴4080$ - 4120$
🔴Major Order Block> 🔴4165$-41250$
📊Poc (Point of Control) : 3960$
⚠️ Margin 1% For each position.
⚠️Use Tight StopLoss.
✍️Desert Eagle
📊Analysis Method SMART Money
Concept + ICT+ Volume Profile
(DYOR)
📆11.27.2022
⚠️This Analysis will be Updated⚠️
💸Good Luck Traders.
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 40% DXY, 60% Cash.
*I violated the House Rules for showcasing private indicators that I didn't create and was put in timeout in addition to my previous 5 ideas being hidden. Sorry I guess.*
*Investors are fleeing DXY and their Fixed Income trades and moving back into Risk-On assets as market participants seem to think that the Fed is going to slow down rates hikes by opting for 50bps vs 75bps on December 14th. Meanwhile Ukraine continues to operate with half of the country's energy capacity as the winter continues to get colder and has appealed to President Biden to consider sending Gray Eagle Drones to aid in their defense against Russia . Tomorrow is a big day for economic data in the US with Manufacturing PMI, Consumer Sentiment, New Homes Sales and the FOMC Minutes all due to report. It's important to remain prepared for a reversal back to DXY and US Treasuries if the numbers don't support the "inflation is coming down" narrative. TIPS are still attractive until CPI comes down consistently.
Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Commodities, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, CNYUSD, NI225 and N100 are up. DXY, US Treasuries, VIX and HSI are down.
Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 11/23 ; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 11/23 ; US October New Homes Sales at 10am EST 11/23 ; FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST 11/23 ; 6th GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 11/23 ; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. *
Price is currently trending down at $107.15 after being rejected by $108 resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $109.73, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently testing 39.43 resistance, if it can break above this level then the next resistance is the uptrend line from July 2020 at 49 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 39 as it approaches a test of 45.65 resistance. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending up off of -1.21 support, if it can get above -1.05 this would be a bullish crossover. ADX is currently trending sideways at 25 as Price attempts to recapture its uptrend, this is neutral at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest $108 resistance before potentially pushing higher to test $110 minor resistance . However, if Price continues down here, it will likely test the 200MA at ~$105 as support for the first time since June 2021 before potentially retesting the uptrend line from May 2021 at $103.15 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $108.04.
NAS 100 I It will rise from support Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
**NAS 100 - Listen to video!
We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met.
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Trend of MSCI Hong Kong Index ETFUnlike the more widely referenced HSI Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong which is dominated by Chinese stocks listing on Hong Kong market, MSCI Hong Kong Index only have ~6% stocks controlled by Mainland Chinese entities and another ~6% stocks that are significantly and directly exposed to behavior of Chinese consumers (For example companies which main business are casino in Macau and such). Hence it is more capable of reflecting the economy of Hong Kong.
However, EWH being an ETF that track the MSCI Hong Kong Index, does not appears to benefit from this distinction.
BANK NIFTY ANALYSIS 15 MIN (NOV 15)Hello TradingView community and my followers, please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you very much and here we go.
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BANK NIFTY 15 min
Daily view : It is stretched and it has made inside candle at all time high. If we study history, when last time it was at all time high on 25th oct 2021 it reversed back and made big red candle after 2-3 days. Be cautious....!
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15 min view : I have mentioned everything in the charts you can see and observe and learn.
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Let,s what condition market gives to us tomorrow. Thank You !
BANKNIFTY 15 MIN INTRADAYHello TradingView community and my followers, please if you like the ideas, don't forget to support them with likes and comments, thank you very much and here we go.
BANKNIFTY in 15 min taking support from previous day low area and
It is consolidating in the range.
Wait for breakout then we could see a upside momentum as trend is up. Thank you !
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 20% DXY, 80% Cash.
*DXY and Long-Term US Treasuries are down after a barely dovish October CPI print that has investors thinking that the Fed is going to somehow pause rates hikes in 2023 or slow down on December 14th. Equities benefited from this and if it wasn't for the FTX/Alameda fallout then Cryptos may also be benefitting from this recent transition back to Risk-On. Bad headlines keep coming out for FTX as a large portion of their remaining assets (around ~$700m) were "illegally moved" last night after they filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy earlier in the day; after hearing about the FTX backdoors that only SBF and 3 other people knew of, it's hard not to be skeptical of who orchestrated this. The Fed has made it abundantly clear that they still have a ways to go before bringing the federal funds rate to a sufficiently restrictive level, and if there's one thing that we learned in 2020 and this year, it's to not fight the Fed. Keep an eye out for what Russia decides to do about the Grain Deal with Ukraine that's set to expire next Saturday 11/19.
Key Upcoming Dates: Fourth GDPNow Q4 GDP estimate 11/16; US October Retail Sales at 830am EST 11/16; US October Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 11/17; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . *
Price is currently trending down at ~$106.41 and broke below $108.04 support after falling 4% on the CPI report. Parabolic SAR is bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 32 with no signs of trough formation, the next support is at 23. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 10.25 as it approaches a retest of 9 support. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -0.75 as it approaches a test of -0.83 support for the first time since July 2020. ADX is currently trending up at 16 after forming a trough at 13 as Price continues falling, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely test $108.04 resistance . However, if Price keeps going down, it will likely test the 200MA at ~$104.75 as support for the first time since June 2021. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $108.04.
The crisis is here but worst is to comeUs30 has a huge divergence with Nas100 and S&P500 . These 3 index usually behave the same but lately Us30 has been making a strong bullish move while Nas100 and S&P500 are holding way below. There are multiples catalytics this mont and the following month that can help this move to happen. In my opinion the move has started with the Federal Fund Rate interest rate . The interest rate went up to 75bps. We have NFP coming up, CPI and others. The scenario is not looking good. The curve is not here yet which must likely will make the market to suffer more.
DXY Daily TA Neutral BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 42% DXY, 58% CASH.
* MINOR SUPPORT WATCH . US Midterm elections are underway and the polls are getting ready to close soon, Republicans are expected to control both the House and Senate when the results come in. DXY, US Long-Term Treasuries, CNYUSD, Metals, Agriculture and Cryptos are all down. While Equities, Equity Futures, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, VIX and Energy all finished higher on the day. In a calamitous day that sent shockwaves through the entire Crypto industry, FTX experienced a liquidity crunch due to investors fleeing their exchange token FTT en masse after reports surfaced on 11/06 of Alameda Research (partner crypto trading firm) possibly not being as solvent as people thought. This inspired Binance to one-up their initial investment in FTX (that they exited last year) by acquiring all of FTX (excluding FTX.US) in a strategic transaction to provide liquidity to the struggling exchange . FTX CEO and Co-Founder Sam Bankman Fried was ranked the 95th wealthiest person in the world just yesterday with a $15.6b estimated net worth; now, after the biggest one-day collapse (94%) ever among billionaires tracked by Bloomberg, his net worth is estimated to be $1b. This event sent almost all Cryptos down 20%+ as investors feared what kind of ripple effects such a big player (FTX) going down in the industry would have on the broader market.
Equities and Cryptos showed another case of decoupling with Equities finishing higher for a fourth consecutive session on the expected Red Sweep in Congress, the CPI print on Thursday will be telling in how far this rally in Equities has to go. Today, Xi Jinping inspected the joint operations command center of the Central Military Commission as part of an effort to enhance combat preparedness, he was even quoted as saying that "the entire military should devote all its energy to, and carry out all its work for, combat readiness" to "enhance its capability to fight and win and effectively fulfill its missions and tasks in the new era". It's become quite clear that China will likely invade Taiwan later this year or in 2023 with Taiwan continuing to make independent decisions like investing $10m in chip production in Lithuania as well as "colluding with external forces" (meeting with world leaders that recognize Taiwan as a sovereign state). The US has information regarding North Korea supplying Russia with weapons , North Korea is one of the few countries in the world to openly recognize Russia's proclaimed territories in Ukraine.
Key Upcoming Dates: Third GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 11/09; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 . *
Price is currently testing $110 minor support for the third consecutive session and risks losing support of the 50MA if it breaks below $110. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $113.05, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 41 and is technically retesting 39.43 support for the second consecutive session. Stochastic is currently bearish and is beginning to form a trough at 15, the next support is at 9. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -0.30 as it approaches a test of -0.38 support for the first time since April 2021. ADX has been forming a soft trough at 14 for three consecutive sessions as Price struggles to find buying momentum, this is neutral at the moment but if ADX starts to go up as Price goes down this would be mildly bearish.
If Price is able to bounce here and defend $110 support then it will likely retest the 50MA as resistance at ~$111.25 . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will lose $110 support and likely retest $108 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $110.03.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash.
* CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . US midterm elections are tomorrow and the Republicans appear poised to take the House and Senate, if this happens then a short-term rally would likely ensue leading up to the CPI report on Thursday. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Metals, US Treasury Bonds, VIX, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. DXY, CNYUSD, Energy and Agriculture are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Midterm Congress Elections 11/08; Third GDPNow US Q4 GDP Estimate 11/09; US October CPI at 830am EST 11/10; UofM November Consumer Sentiment Survey at 10am EST 11/11; Russia/Ukraine Grain Deal Expiration on 11/19; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .*
Price is currently retesting the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3775 as resistance which is just below the 50MA (~$3800). Volume is currently Moderate (moderate) and on track to favor buyers for a second consecutive session if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3900, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 50 as it approaches a test of 52.68 resistance. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently beginning to form a trough at 27, the next support is at 18.32. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending sideways at 6.5, it's still technically testing 10.73 minor resistance but if it crosses below 0 it would be a bearish crossover (there are two support levels just below at -5 and -11). ADX is currently trending down slightly at 18.5 as Price attempts to push higher, until a trough is formed this correlation is mildly bearish.
If Price is able to recapture support at the lower trendline of the descending channel from July 2021 at ~$3775 and break above the 50MA at ~$3800 as resistance , then it will likely aim to retest $3913 minor resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3770.
FTSE in a short lived up move?Right now the FTSE is in a sideways consolidation range since early this year.
On the larger side it's forming somewhat a Descending Triangle with lower highs and same lows.
On the short side, it's formed a W Formation with short lived upside coming.
This is a great range bounded setup and for those who are short term traders, there are buying opportunities with stocks in the interim.
BIAS: Sideways - Short term bullish medium term bearish.
DXY Daily TA Neutral BullishDXYUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% DXY, 48% Cash.
* FOMC WATCH . DXY, VIX and Agriculture are down while Cryptos, Equity Futures, US Treasuries, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD, Metals, Oil and Energy are up. White House Economic Advisor Bernstein said today that "President Biden has endorsed the Fed's policy pivot", which many readers interpreted as a sign of 75bps and a Fed pivot tomorrow; turns out he was referring to the hawkish pivot already being made this year. Interesting word choice with the FOMC rate hike announcement tomorrow and US Midterms on 11/08/22. The US Pentagon has confirmed that there are US military personnel currently in Ukraine conducting security detail at the embassy and providing logistical support for Ukrainian soldiers , but that none are on the frontlines. However, it's rumored that there's a large presence of clandestine CIA and US special forces that have been operating in Ukraine since the Russian invasion in February . The second GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 2.6% , down from 3.1% on 10/28. Key Upcoming Dates: FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02; October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently attempting to push higher after bouncing off the 50MA at ~$111. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $112.75, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down and testing the uptrend line from August 2020 as support at 49.10 minor support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently testing 50.61 resistance with no signs of peak formation. MACD remains bearish and is currently forming a soft trough just above -0.38 support for the fourth consecutive session. ADX continues to trend down at 13.57 as Price attempts to push higher, this is mildly bearish.
If Price is able to keep pushing higher then it will likely aim to retest the local-high at ~$114 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down below the 50MA at ~$111 as support , it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental SL: (two b2b closes below) $111.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash.
* CRITICAL RESISTANCE TEST . US Midterm elections take place in a little over a week (11/08) and markets are bracing for the FOMC statement on FFR at 2pm on 11/02. Equity Futures are down while Cryptos are mixed and seeing a case of the Sunday Scaries. The Nikkei 225 and Hang Seng are currently up so it gives a bit of hope to US equities in the morning. Russia continues with its pause on the Black Sea grain deal which puts food supply chains at risk in the coming months leading into winter. As Elon Musk's Twitter deal completes, Twitter is to begin charging $20 a month for the blue check (account verification) . Brazil elects left-wing underdog Lula as President after serving two terms as Brazil's President from 2003-2010. Key Upcoming Dates: 2nd GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 11/ 01 ; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02; October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently breaking back above the 50MA and is trending up at ~$3900 after bouncing off of the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3790. Volume remains High (low) and has favored buyers in five of the past six sessions as Price tests the Point of Control (VP) at $3915 as resistance. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3600, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 60 after bouncing off of 52.68 support, the next resistance is at 68.42. Stochastic remains bearish in the "bullish autobahn zone" for two consecutive sessions and is completing a trough formation at ~89.5, it would experience a bullish crossover at ~90 where it would then likely retest max top. MACD is currently trending up at ~6.8 with no signs of peak formation as it approaches a test of 10.73 minor resistance for the first time since July 2022; it's also still technically testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at around -11.45 resistance. ADX is currently beginning to form a trough at 23 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment.
If Price is able to keep pushing higher then it will likely formally retest $3938 minor resistance before potentially retesting the 100MA at ~$4100 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here then it will likely test the 50MA at ~$3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3780.
DXY Daily TA Cautiously BearishDXYUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 25% DXY, 75% Cash.
* 50MA RESISTANCE TEST. Both PCE price index and Core (without food and energy) for September saw the same increase from the August report , with PCE increasing 0.3% from August and Core increasing 0.5%. Though some may see this as plateauing, it's a bit premature and doesn't negate the fact that PCE is still increasing. Federal funds rate traders are still betting on a 75bps rate hike next Tuesday. The first GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate is 3.1% ; the last Q3 GDP estimate was 2.6%. DXY, US Treasuries, Cryptos, Equities, Equity Futures and GBPUSD are up while Commodities, CNYUSD, JPYUSD, EURUSD and VIX are down. Key Upcoming Events: 2nd GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate 11/01; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02; October Employment Situation at 830am (EST) 11/04; 2nd Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am (EST) 11/30.*
Price is currently trending down at ~$110.70 after getting rejected by the 50MA at ~$111 as resistance on the first test, the next support (minor) is at ~$110. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $113.45, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 46 as it approaches a test of the uptrend line from July 2020 as resistance at ~47, if it's able to break above then it will likely test 49.10 minor resistance. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after bouncing off of 9 support, the next resistance is at 24. MACD remains bearish and is beginning to show signs of trough formation as it tests -0.065 support. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 15 as Price continues to fall, this is mildly bullish at the moment; if ADX doesn't form a trough and Price keeps falling, this would imply that the bull run isn't over.
If Price is able to breakout above the 50MA at ~$111 as resistance then it will likely retest the 1-month high of $113.95 as resistance . However, if Price continues to trend down here, it will likely retest $110 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $111.
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash.
* 50MA RESISTANCE TEST . Equity Futures, Hang Seng (Hong Kong) Index, Cryptos, DXY, US Treasuries and JPY are up while CNYUSD, GPBUSD and EURUSD are down. Equities and Commodities finished today's session higher. US September New Home Sales came -10.9% lower at 603k compared to August's 677k, and 17.6% lower than September 2021 . The housing market is finally catching up to financial markets and starting to reverse course. The 20th and final GPDNow US Q3 GDP estimate came in at 3.1% compared to 2.9% on 10/19. As the FOMC meeting on 11/01-11/02 nears, the recent significant downturns in PMI and New Home Sales may not be enough to save the Fed from going with 100bps if US September PCE index doesn't come down equivocally. However, most speculators are still betting on a 75bps rate hike. Key Upcoming Dates: US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27 ; Amazon Q3 and Apple Q4 Earnings 10/28; First GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/28; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.*
Price has successfully broken back into the descending channel from August 2021 and is currently trending down at ~$3830 after being rejected by the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance; it would confirm support of the channel if it were to successfully defend the lower trendline of the channel at ~$3795 as support. Volume both remains High (low) and has favored buyers for four consecutive sessions now. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3547, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 55.5 after forming a peak at 58, the next support is at 52.68. Stochastic is currently on the verge of crossing over bearish at 96, the next support is at 76 but as long as it stays above 85 it is in the "bullish autobahn". MACD remains bullish and is currently testing the weak uptrend line from March 2020 at 10.73 resistance with no signs of trough formation. ADX continues to trend lower at 25 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment.
If Price is able to breakout above the 50 MA at ~$3860 as resistance then it will likely aim to retest the VP Point of Control at around $3938 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely test the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3795 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3795.
