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Imbalances

CHF JPY - Weekly testHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Four day view The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling. The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers. The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone. Monthly Imbalances The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from. Cross Pair Analysis Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of USD CHF - Orange EUR SGD - Purple The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY. Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse. Sell position entry points Using the 4 day Fibonacci tool, a retracement is required where a nice liquidity wick will need to be filled. This will be a key area to monitor for shorts as a double weekly test is highly probable. Possible entries Now that price has tested the "0" Fibonacci creating a bottom, price has created over the last few days some wicks but created an engulfing candle - price will now to look to close the wick fill and move towards 118.60 - where a double top formation has occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
4
XRP - 2021 April updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous tracking here: - short term analysis Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish. Monthly imbalances: The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes. Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84. The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle. The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance. The weekly imbalances The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances. The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly. Putting the four day and weekly chart together with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect. The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place. There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation. Two key criteria to follow here: I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. Cross asset analysis: Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances. OMGNetwork - Black Tezos - Green These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish. And also additional buy points. Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
10
XAG Update Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea here: Use the weekly imbalances as a reference Check the monthly to confirm what you are seeing Eight hour imbalances applied Four day analysis Keep track off the bigger picture; use XAU, XAG correlation Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
4
Weekly outlook for GBPUSDLooking for two scenarios to play out here on GBPUSD this week. I do like the supply area marked by the risk entry. The only reason I see this failing is all the liquidity above it. I would need to see a confirmation at this zone for LTF sells. If price blows through this zone I see it filling the imbalances above and mitigating buy-to-sell orders. I Will look for shorts in the highlighted low-risk entry zone. Can easily take buys up to targets as well. Will update as things get moving.
by UnknownUnicorn1956671
2
GBP AUD - New zone, new buyHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the AUD USD chart here for further updates. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD - with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
EUR USD - Imbalance path is clearHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Euro USD monthly imbalances These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here. Here is the link to the privatised idea EUR USD Short Euro - Weekly imbalances The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone. Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning. snapshot EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. snapshot US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation snapshot Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. snapshot Correlation: USD CHF - Green Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here. snapshot Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
5
GBP NZD - buying imbalance updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Daily Imbalance pathway The Kiwi Dollar has a focused pathway, using the four day trendline The current possible imbalances are marked and align with the price targets where price will look to reject using a Fibonacci extension tool to form the range where price will bounce between. The Kiwi being the minor pair, has sensitivity far more volatile than the Pound Sterling. From a Daily imbalance perspective. I.// Price is creating a higher low - keeping the trendline in take. II.// The monthly imbalance acts a strong support base for the long term positional holders. Four hour buy zone confirmation Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Buy zone Between 1.906 - 1.916 if price retraces to this zone again. Despite this being a 100pip zone, the confirmation of this range from a personal perspective is necessary. Looking to hedge accordingly with weekly imbalances at the top to close out potential 'losses' and retain fee maintenance. Targets The price targets set are GBP NZD 2.08 + - with a longer term final profit target of 2.15. Why? Because this is where our imbalance wick fill is. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
CHF JPY - Awaiting sell offHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Four day view The four day chart has provided key information with a great opportunity to highlight the sell area using the Fibonacci tool as a confirmation. Ideally to show a true confirmation - price would look to fill the wick of long legged wick which breaks the scarlet zone . This will show where price should look to before selling. The zone is clear here where price will react before the sell imbalance probability takes over. Weekly imbalances The weekly imbalances are here to provide the clear view from where price will have considerable tail offs as sellers take over from the buyers. The reason for the key weekly zones forming under the monthly is where lower highs have taken place meaning that the monthly imbalance and price cannot offer a retest of said zone. Monthly Imbalances The monthly imbalances are clearly laid out which present the high and low of the imbalance, the top imbalance has not entirely been tested where a monthly close has tested the 119 - 124 zone, however this being said. Price has reverted to test the Weekly imbalance where price has successfully filled the wick in August 2014 which is where looking left the entire weekly zone has build the structure from. Cross Pair Analysis Using the cross pair analysis using the basis of USD CHF - Orange EUR SGD - Purple The weekly chart shows the relationship using the positive correlated pair against an the USD CHF a major pair with negative correlation. The imbalances are not shown here, however the key takeaway from the chart here is to understand what the USD is doing and the other major is having an inverse imbalance at the present moment. Although CHF JPY are fundamentally two safe haven currencies - the aligned weekly cross sectional zone shows scope for a negative imbalance probability for CHF JPY. Using solely CHFJPY & USDCHF adding imbalances shows a simplified view of imbalances where price can show USD CHF next imbalance zone where price will climb to and CHF JPY inverse. Sell position ready Here is two possible sell scenarios Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
XLM USD - Mid/late 2021 forecastHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour XLM USD Monthly Imbalances With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level. These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. To see this, play the original analysis below: See XLM chart in the link below. Weekly Imbalances The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified. 1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play. 2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs.# Here is a possible scenario which could play out, where the probabilities align with the overall structure in play is geared to buyers imbalance. Here is a scenario which could be a probability - based on the coins structural past using the weekly data at present. To every Bullish scenario is a bearish probability. The idea here is for price to reach a monthly low imbalance. Daily Imbalances The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure. Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions. Eight hour imbalances Here is the Imbalances which have been previously filled with the long wicks rejecting price reversion points showing a clear imbalance from the shift from buyers to sellers, and from the bottom shift from sellers to buyers. Four hour imbalances The four hour imbalances for the downtrend are identified and when tested will be a lower time frame area of interest for adding buys or sells in, but the overall picture is the main priority. The four hour just identifies a good down trend pattern or correctional move, so buyers wait patiently. Cross Assets Looking at the correlation pairs with Ethereum, Atom, District0x and Band - price is currently experiencing a sellers imbalance correctional move across all coins at the current moment. However, price will look at respected areas for longs. Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:XLMUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
SPX - It might be time to face it [Bearish scenario]Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish, this is a game of patience. Bullish scenario here: Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Rolling returns method: SPX is in need of a correctional Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est. SPX is in need of a correctional move using the monthly time frame, ideally the monthly close will indicate an array of imbalance with large wicks providing an indicator of a battle with for example a hammer candle, shooting star, doji, or long bodied and legged wick. This will provide a great amount of support of accumulation before an impending distribution from the monthly imbalance. It's a game of probabilities. SPX Weekly Bearish scenario Monthly imbalances Un-sustained rally Current picture - where a good Fibonacci short could take the price from a four hour perspective. 3721.XX was always a test zone for me. A four hour perspective of where price has moved from for the bullish scenario in the short term to a negative risk, however what price is actually doing is testing the monthly imbalance zone where the zone either breaks or rejects. This zone was a good test, however please note - the probability here is building up a profit take for buyers and an imbalance can cause the sellers to take over with the wick on the monthly close of February indicating the inefficiency is present. Taking a technical approach with the Fibonacci retracement, using the four hour, price has shown the start of the move - gathering a all time high pivot point, retracing to a low, forming the Fibonacci structure. Targets being said for the 3721 - is the imbalance, which is in between the short term Fibonacci retracement extension zones. However, price will test the low, look for a reversion pivot and continue the sell. The probability with be depending on the wick in focus where price has created a shooting start to 3834*.XX. US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. Cross Analysis; USD JPY VS DXY VS Debt instruments - Impact Simplified - U.S. bond yields gauge the performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the USD JPY - the Yen will show it's weakness. Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation. Inflation further analysis: Keep an eye on the SPX with Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space Gold discounted See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXShort
by LupaCapital
2
EUR USD - It might be timeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Euro USD monthly imbalances These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of 1.25 to be a structural level for the Euro against the Dollar. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 1.235XX. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a lower high, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the monthly imbalance and have created a weekly imbalance zone where price will use as a discounted zone. Breakout traders will be looking for a quick scalp and also hedging traders will be in place here. Here is the link to the privatised idea Euro - Weekly imbalances The weekly and monthly imbalance are both here within the same zone, therefore the zone is marked with a monthly inefficiency zone. Looking at the weekly it is clear this zone is a strong imbalance zone where just like the USD JPY - the monthly zones have shown a great amount of respect. Subject to the weekly higher low which took place, the hammer signal here on the weekly indicates a great opportunity to understand that the sell off is beginning. EURO Daily and Weekly chart side by side Using the daily and weekly structure – the move was identified early – with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the monthly time frame, referring to the high firstly at 1.254XX. Why will traders look to sell here? – It is a simple buy trap for retail traders and scalpers. Traders in the short term can win big and of course anything is possible in trading. The pattern which has clearly emerged though from my analysis shows I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. US Bonds yield curve, accelerating the USD first U.S. bond yields gauging performance of the U.S. stock market, thereby reflecting the demand for the U.S. dollar in subsequence. Where investors move away from stocks and other high-risk investments, the new increased demand for “less-risky instruments” such as U.S. bonds and the safe-haven U.S. dollar pushes their prices higher against respective pairs. However, when it comes to the EUR USD - the Euro will show its weakness with the Remember: A rising bond yield is dollar appreciation. A falling bond yield is dollar devaluation Mirrors Edge EXY Vs DXY - looking here at the Euro Currency Index and the Dollar Currency Index, price has established some very defined levels - which have been marked in Purple - Refer to Master key for zone colours. With the impact of the DXY - the jaws are looking to close here, from a technical standpoint clear fresh movements are foreseeable with the probability of positional holds for Dollar buys and Euro sales based upon the chart. So long as price reverts back to a clear higher low formation on the EUR USD and respectively on the EXY with the DXY creating a defined point of higher lows, then the holds are clear to the imbalances stated. Correlation: USD CHF - Green Look closely on the weekly imbalances - where price has created two opportunistic weekly imbalances where profits will be taken [ Marked in orange] . USD CHF will a an inverse trade, however taking this can double exposure so ensure one pair is traded here. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
GBP AUD enters weekly zone, what next?Hello traders and analysts, Below see the original idea dated: January 1st 2021. Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. What has happened since? Price has tested the inefficiency zone with a double bottom of 1.742X lows- but on a weekly chart against the ray trend line, this has created a false breakout for the bears - which is exactly what was needed to identify the imbalance shift from sellers to buyers. The imbalance zone is highlighted blue to represent the monthly zone due to the price hitting monthly lows, so from here the buyers took over. Long Positions held: Position 1: - 1.74550 Position 2: - 1.77200 Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Daily chart imbalance Here is the price chart for the daily chart and the previous idea of tracking the update Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. AUD USD peaking at the imbalance of 0.80 Below is the AUD - USD rising to the imbalance of 0.80 Here provides a clearer view as to why the GBP vs AUD is ranging between a 300pip range, based upon a strong GBP and a strong AUD Why the previous analysis pointed to 0.80 as a selling pivotal point using imbalances. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD - with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
GBP JPY 150 touched! - let's re-analyseHello traders and analysts. 150 target has been hit! Congratulations holders! Below is our setup for the pair GBP JPY. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance Current situation - the Fibonacci sequence has completed over night in the Asian session - whereby price needed to close and reach the target of the extension using the 4 hour of the -0.786. The smaller time buy zone is now in place for possible longs so long that price creates a liquidity wick in this area. If price falls further, the daily zone comes into play. GBP JPY weekly timeframe Daily time frame 4 hour time frame See the original idea for the 2021 bullish outlook here: The imbalances are clear, price will hit our 150 analysis and then we will update the outlook accordingly. GBP pairs currently state of play in returns percentage: Here are the returns thus far from 2021 - 2022. GBP JPY has appreciated the most as expected. Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 149 poised to be filled by the bulls. This has now taken effect, however confirmations of a daily close will highlight further bullish momentum. The current zone in play approaching 150 is a monthly imbalance which has been previous tested as a supply imbalance. The Bulls may side-line between 147-150 in a range as GBP JPY can erase gains and equally provide gains very quickly in a trading session. Targets: 150! 152 154 Re-buy zones: 148 147 Lows of 145. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
8
SPX liquidity was needed - bullish trend intactHello traders and analysts, A quick note: This is tagged as long, for the wider outlook. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is an update to the previous idea - keep in mind the imbalances in the wider time frames. What does this chart show? Well, the trendline has been tested, but a higher low has been created suggesting that a correctional move was imminent. Why in this "sell off" remaining cool, calm and collected is important here. The emotional move in profit taking is crucial, but this move was needed. see the Fibonacci aligning here; This was another opportunity to add a long position - all be it small as price is at a costly price to buy in. But the power of compounding and average price will allow for these moves to take on a short term horizonal risk. The Fibonacci retracement aligns and a buy order can be placed. Note* this 61.8% maybe broken in the short term for a trendline retest of a false breakout to pin a bearish move. See the correctional move from the channel below. Notice how price is back within the lower green target. The trendline has been tested of 6 losing days consecutively. The 2021 analysis: Price has followed the path prediction thus far to a almost perfection at this moment in time. The reason for this is using the daily, weekly and monthly. The probability of the imbalances remain clear Multi time frame analysis: SPX is in need of a correctional Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est. SPX is in need of a correctional move using the monthly time frame Daily time frame: A four hour perspective of where price has moved from for the bullish scenario in the short term. SPX vs the Vix The Vix to be maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. SPX vs Emerging: What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . The commodities such as Copper , Silver , Gold and Platinum will now provide a solid buy opportunity now the demand will grow. The second image shows the return % of the fund upon a scale against the SPX on a daily chart close. Fundamental failures, to ensure imbalances are made clear for the bullish scenario. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500 . If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio , the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
24
GBP AUD - Run with the bulls with the range breakHello traders and analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is a nice opportunity for buys which has happened this morning European session; What happened? well from the low to the high, take your Fibonacci retracement tool and plot the 61.8% zone where we anticipated the buys. GBP still has bullish potential here to climb into 1.8XX - this is still in play upon the previous few days passing. The rejection happened nicely at 1.78 as expected. This pair has a nice liquidity zone so when entering be aware of a larger stop loss in comparison to other pairs. - Here is the latest update of the previous analysis. This update shows the beginning of the consolidation range: Four hour chart range view Price is currently trading a great 4 hour range, perfect to hedge short to protect long positions and buy in upon the lows . What will happen next? Well, price needs to break the 1.8030 zone, to push higher upon the bullish lower timeframe movements. Imbalances original idea: 1. Zone 1: - we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. A large break of structure will occur - taking out the equal highs. These are our Points of interests. Now the trend is moving, looking to see a weak dollar maintained in 2021 so this will be great for the Aussie, affecting the GBP also which has also been seeing a volatile state - however Growing against JPY, USD, but against the CAD, AUD, NZD is now seeing large flows creating ranges to accumulate account growth depending on signs of movement. Here is the bigger picture updated on the weekly time frame: Take a look to see what AUD USD is signalling; Here is the current situation: imbalances are clear The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. However, with the year end - we will now look for two scenarios - 1. Price will revert back using the Fib retracement - looking at a new high low to form before a further bullish movement to the Aussie towards 0.80 - . 2. Price will continue to flow with minimal setbacks with a high probability of a weaker USD - due to the stimulus and presidential change, with new reforms to boost the economy again tumbling the Dollar. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
Bitcoin 50k! - Congrats holdersHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily grey = 4hour pink = 1 hour Here was the previous chart tracking our progress: Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint - the sell off begins with a new equal high peak or a higher high. We will expect price to pullback engineering liquidity to shakeout buyers and free up the market players - using the 4 hour, there is a possibility the 50 - 61.8% retracement showing a good imbalance zone. We will not look to buy at this moment due to the fact price is working well and needs the activity to free up in order to consolidate. Crypto in our eyes works like rocket fuel , in the sense of bursting out - tailing off and crashing - while most FX pairs do this - crypto is still establishing multiple fresh zones both in fractal senses and adoption will have a momentum here if you look from a fundamental view. Fundamental Update - E Musk has been tweeting and purchased $1.5bn of bitcoin and accepting payments of BTC for Tesla products. Past analysis; This was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. What did we see - while patiently waiting for the imbalance to hit? The above image, shows the Fibonacci on a daily - whereby we used our previous retracement back in the end of January, this confirmed to us the buyers were still in control. Inefficiency 1 zone was valid. This is now a new buy zone for future reference. Here was our latest buy position - based on the previous idea January 28th 2021 The first analysis to show the imbalances upon a smaller scale: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. To see this in full - click the idea below. The analysis provides sufficient detail Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
5
SPX 500 - to 4000+Hello traders and analysts, Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see our previous idea - where 3920 for the SPX has been achieved, with an explanation as to why. The idea which lead to where we are now using Fibonacci from the latest correctional move. The main idea for 2021: Rolling returns - historical data . Using the base model of 3 year rolling returns, the simplified explanation of the model shows a 41/50 years have returned a positive growth. As opposed to 6 years of negative returns. With 2020 closing out 16.26% return . *Note - the 6 years where the rolling return is negative - the dot com bubble only stood to lose 6.2%* Est Why the previous Extension zones fell in line with inefficiency 1 . Price has followed the path prediction thus far to a almost perfection at this moment in time. The reason for this is using the daily, weekly and monthly. The probability of the imbalances remain clearer. SPX500 vs the VIX The Vix to be maintaining below 35 max positional moves will show correctional patterns of distribution flows in the smaller timeframes where price engineering will take place to allow discounted prices to occur. This will tend to steady the recovery but also give the rally base rally move a chance to breathe. Vix update: SPX vs Emerging: What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility. The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX. The commodities such as Copper, Silver, Gold and Platinum will now provide a solid buy opportunity now the demand will grow. The second image shows the return % of the fund upon a scale against the SPX on a daily chart close. Fundamental failures, to ensure imbalances are made clear for the bullish scenario. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Last comparison; Inflation ETF vs SPX500. If you as a trader are interested in the price ratio of Shiller P/E ratio, the market is at this moment 35.83x, with low inflation at the moment, the bulls are on the run. Watch this space. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPXLong
by LupaCapital
4
GBP JPY - Bulls strolling to the next targetHello traders and analysts. Below is our setup for the pair GBP JPY. Zone colour Master Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances - Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance See the original idea for the 2021 bullish outlook, Weekly timeframe Four hour chart We had a falling wedge on the four hour time frame, where price had bounced off the high, created a correctional sell pattern, however price has managed to sell off to 144.50. Price broke through with the continuation pattern and is now heading towards the weekly imbalance at 148 highs. We are currently in the weekly imbalance zone now, between 145.8 to 148.00. Fundamentals at play With the successful Brexit transition and recovery from the Risk-off scenario from Brexit, the commodity hedge from Gold will not push higher. While the vaccination and cases remain a concern for the UKs long term success in the economy opening up, the GBP has been seen rising and looks set to continue with a target of 143 poised to be filled by the bulls. XAU USD & GBP JPY are safe havens so expect the volatility within the pairs to remain strong as short term sentiment turns sour. From a Fibonacci prospective: We took the low and plotted the high. We expected the previous wick to be filled as the order blocks in GJ are volatile so price and hit a fresh zone and reverse very quickly . The extension targets below signify our areas of longer term profit taking. At the time of the previous idea - the positional trades still hold and require a quick overview high level to ensure the trade is still running to target. The overall bullishness from GBP is due to the JPY with an imbalance on the weekly (see the key) above where price is approaching a purple weekly zone between 147+. We are currently in a weekly zone between 143-145 whereby price has been creating a steep incline however has had healthy price engineering. Keep in mind the imbalances where price can retrace back to 145 (weekly). Targets are still set between 148-150 as bullish take profits. Do you enjoy the setups? We have 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Offer our technical breakdowns here Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
4
EUR JPY - Bullish updatesHello traders and analysts, Key: Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Orange = Daily Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is our original idea for Euro Japanese Yen back in December 2020. Here is the weekly time frame of where the price imbalances are taking us: At the current daily chart; We are currently experiencing a great bullish momentum for the Euro, where the Euro is seeing strength against the US Dollar and Yen a like due to the imbalances identified on the weekly time frame - which is shown by our weekly . The weekly ray is included to provide us a strong trendline, as time has moved on - the lows created are higher lows, whereby daily closes are showing us a bullish move. Be wary of this pair as the Yen is a safe haven so expect pullbacks and sell offs to occur on a 4hour and daily timeframe. However, with this bullish movement the creation of a divergence is created between the trendline as oppose to the weekly blue trend. A bullish scenario: Pay attention to the consolidation block on the left [in the blue ellipse at 129.00, there is an inefficiency here where price can easily be broken to create a path for the upper imbalance and use this consolidation as a demand zone. A Bearish scenario: The Fibonacci can complete the pattern to 129 completing the -0.27 target on a daily level and from here using the consolidation as a selling fractal, the fresh zone at the orange zone can be the profit point for a sell off scenario. Keep in mind the imbalance pr Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise and clears your mind. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
GBP USD - Bull target imbalancesHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily grey = 4hour pink = 1 hour What is the chart currently showing us? The current situation for the 4 hour chart shows us some good offerings within a trading range. There are lower time imbalances at play - where price has been consolidating. But has now broke our range high and produced a rising channel. The Fibonacci from the range low to the range high - saw a nice retracement to the 61.8% to 1.356 zone. From here, price is now at the extension -0.272 where price will look to find a new support and break through to the new targets. Where will price take us from here? The USD will continue to see a deepening soft dollar, which is what the US want right now to keep pushing the stocks into 2021 with cheaper import/exports as a major player. Furthermore a cheaper dollar will boost 2021 visitors to the US and see Gold rushed to as a hedge of inflation . GBP we have a weekly zone the pound has now surpassed creating a good new daily demand to move further. The monthly zone towards 1.50 as our target for a position buy. Before this zone on the daily to take us to 1.44 on our weekly zone. Here is our previous analysis whereby price is moving towards the upper imbalances. When it comes to the USD, we have now been seeing continued devaluing of the USD into 2021 with the Biden administration. The FED injecting 22% of all USD in circulation within one year. A Staggering amount of est $9T USD was injected to save the US from collapse, despite its ever mounting debt of as it stands 11. 01 .2021 $27.775T USD www.usdebtclock.org The question remains as the USD loses value - in order to promote cheaper investment and more prospects for cheaper imports - the country will have a real issue with the constant cycle of financing debt upon debit. With the Global fiscal policy to remain between 1.5-2% - this should keep the FED side lined for a few years monitoring the US and world economy. What we would expect to see will be the growth of EM and commodity based countries in terms of FX to continue the growth against the USD. Why is the GBP USD continuing to climb? The weekly zone has now been intact within the weekly zone showing a good price engineering move which took 'steam' off the the bulls with a healthy retrace. See the monthly chart to show the clear imbalances: Whilst fundamentals are important, it's clear to understand that the key levels of inefficiencies where the chart shows us key levels. For example, a previous bull run after 'Brexit announcement' - see the 2017, 2018 bull run. If you enjoyed our work, please ask us a question. Why follow us? 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Technical breakdowns using our strategy Ignore majority of fundamentals. Trade for swing, positional trades. Update our explanations where we can. Keeping things simple for ourselves and you. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
BTC USD - The final path to $50,000Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. Please do not take this as face value. Master Key: Purple = weekly Blue = Monthly Orange = Daily grey = 4hour pink = 1 hour Looking at the chart from a technical standpoint - the sell off begins with a new equal high peak or a higher high. We will expect price to pullback engineering liquidity to shakeout buyers and free up the market players - using the 4 hour, there is a possibility the 50 - 61.8% retracement showing a good imbalance zone. We will not look to buy at this moment due to the fact price is working well and needs the activity to free up in order to consolidate. Crypto in our eyes works like rocket fuel , in the sense of bursting out - tailing off and crashing - while most FX pairs do this - crypto is still establishing multiple fresh zones both in fractal senses and adoption will have a momentum here if you look from a fundamental view. Fundamental Update - E Musk has been tweeting and purchased $1.5bn of bitcoin and accepting payments of BTC for Tesla products. The previous analysis was based off the Fibonacci - keep in mind the zones here aligned with the 0.5% retracement. what do we see? Here is the current situation for Bitcoin. The above image, shows the Fibonacci on a daily - whereby we used our previous retracement back in the end of January, this confirmed to us the buyers were still in control. Inefficiency 1 zone was valid. This is now a new buy zone for future reference. Here was our latest buy position - based on the previous idea January 28th 2021. Here is our target: Further analysis; Delving into the consolidation in the past, market participants are looking at the consolidation when Bitcoin was introduced - it took 106bars on the weekly timeframe to reach $1,000 price. This consolidation area, has shown us the volatility yes, however it has provided further information as to how the price is behaving upon weekly imbalances and how the cycle is showing it's fractal patterns as time brings us to now, and the future. See here for the imbalance occurring back in 2015. See again in June 2016 - bar replay example. upper imbalance daily zone and weekly at the time. Where will price take us? Inefficiency zone 2 - or inefficiency zone 1? The answer is zone 2 - the imbalance wick is present here and needed a full fill. If you enjoyed our work, please ask us a question. Why follow us? 10 years combined analysis experience in world markets. Technical breakdowns using our strategy Ignore majority of fundamentals. Trade for swing, positional trades. Update our explanations where we can. Keeping things simple for ourselves and you. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Regardless we will continue producing analysis. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2