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Imbalances

GBP NZD - reach a fresh zone, now we waitHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Breakdown 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. March Analysis: Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Volume Analysis Weekly View At the key zone of 0.382 the buyers had two weekly whipsaw events, but failed to capitalize on this. Also, second to this - the "0" had been tested so price now had established a range to gear up from the next pivot point. Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Absolute pairs current scenario Here are the current state of the weekly correlation between GBP AUD, EUR NZD, the imbalances are all moving in line with the imbalance levels. GBP AUD having the closest correlation with the cross pair base using GBP. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
GBP AUD - Continuing to grow to 2.00+Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Grow with Lupa, this trade has seen a huge reward in pips. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Analysis: Previous Analysis below: Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since The pathway Bullish scenario, combined with the bears using a weekly timeframe is below. Using the bullish scenario firstly - where the white candles represent the bullish scenario. The weekly imbalance covers a strong are where price has now left after consolidating for weeks and broke through. Price can now extend and revert back to 1.85XX, this will offer a strong opportunity to add positions here to get to the 2.XX+ target. The bearish scenario is inclusive - where price can revert back to 1.82 which is a strong pivot point, however this scenario probability is low, as price has now left this zone. Price can create a new zone at 1.85 as a Fibonacci zone. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march The current scenario The update has seen the weekly imbalances from the march low of 2020, where price had a strong inverse correlation between AUD USD, GBP AUD with the DXY spiking also. Now with a criteria regarding room to towards the imbalance, the monthly and weekly will offer the highly probable reactive levels. Keep on top of the pairs and specifically the S&P for a fundamental view which affects the AUD. Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Removed; Volume profile, explanation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD. 4 day line chart SPX talking point Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
XAUUSD | Technical Analysis U.S. Treasury yields were little changed to slightly lower in choppy trading on Monday, recovering a bit from sharper falls in the Asian session and tracking shifts in risk appetite, with investors cautious as well ahead of the Federal Reserves monetary policy meeting this week. The yield curve, which can be a gauge of risk sentiment, was little changed at 107.40 basis points, as measured by the spread between 2-year and 10-year yields Gold edged lower on Monday as investors turned cautious in the run-up to a Federal Reserve policy meeting, overshadowing some support from a weaker dollar.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by DynamicCapital-FX
Link USD - Await the next move, overall shortHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Where investors Dollar cost average in the long term, the buying or selling average will be highly beneficial to the trader opposed to the traders who lose out upon short term positions. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Please see the previous chart idea to understand where price was heading Monthly Imbalances The established upper imbalance has been printed - with the price $35 - 53 USD. Price created a monthly candle close bearish but with two weeks out of the month whipsawing offering an opportunity for the buyers to obtain a second entry. The very strong imbalance between $1.38-5.08 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly. * Caveat - July has not yet completed - so the rejection can be retested and close lower - bringing into play $8-10 range where price will offer some rewarding opportunities. See what price could do; Weekly Imbalances The weekly has still provided a clear opportunity for sells to be added to the original position. Price has tested the weekly and "rejected" in most eyes, however this is a pivot point, but has created a trap for the buyers. What happens here is where attention has been increased for gearing up for a bull run. Buyers have will drive price higher where sellers will be looking for buying impulses. Price will ultimately move within a correlation range and follow the BTC and ETH market cap from a fundamental prospective. The overall investment strategy here is to dollar cost average and then await the imbalance for the price to create the larger buying opportunity. Bullish scenario Before the selling opportunity occurs. Note the valid weekly imbalances to take profit or enter new reactive levels where the probability to buy, sell will present opportunities. Daily Imbalances The Daily shows alignment with the reactive levels at the 50% Fibonacci and again at 0.236 level. While price has created the temporary pump - the reactive zone, where price has yet to clear the imbalance to shift to buying imbalances. Await the change of hands - this is the clear target. Where the logical neutral mind set is in position - price can provide valuable information to those who wait. Where BTC is the market leader, prices follow in correlation See the zone above - with no "test of the fractal" Overall, yes the market is in a bullish structure using the inception and three month chart, conversely price will always return to the imbalance - when? This is the question. BTC USD, ETH USD comparison As the two largest cryptos are both here and where the correlation of smaller alternative coins - the market is in "euphoria mode" but to prevent losing out. Paying attention to the critical levels highlighted below will assist. Where price breaks $2,000 on ETH "Rounded Psychological level", price will created a lower bearish channel formation - the opposite to current situation where price has created a breakout. See the capitalization of the two correlated pairs with respect to Ethereum Based Link. Key Bitcoin - BTC - Blue Ethereum - ETH - Purple Link - LNK - White See the secondary scale showing BTC price chart using the weekly to identify the zone to watch for. Ethereum pairs correlation to ETH Weekly Linear Positive Correlation Where Ethereum has the largest market capitalisation of the Eth token based pairs, the correlated pairs to Link are; Tellor TRB - 98% positive correlation - cyan Ox - ZRX - 97% - Orange Uniswap - UNI - 96% - light purple Ethereum - ETH - 91% - dark purple Monthly chart to show the bigger picture; note the 93% Ethereum correlation is the key picture in terms on asset correlation. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:LINKUSD
by LupaCapital
4
GBP JPY - Short, but awaiting the next moveHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous Recap Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Now where is a good take profit point or where is a strong area to add buys upon the imbalance? Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Daily imbalances Here is the daily imbalances - where prices has established three zones - where the monthly and weekly have created a as explained above, the lower lows. Price did create a low, and a retracement creating a further daily imbalance which was also the 50%-61.8% The price targets complete the pattern at estimated 148.3XX subject to price taking us to this imbalance point. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities. Fibonacci - Daily Using the Fibonacci upon the daily timeframe, assists with looking for imbalances and confirms reaction points which aligns near levels which are of interest (by looking left). Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. XAU USD - weekly looks interesting in terms of a correlation aspect. The JXY - what is going here? Well, the Yen is getting stronger - which means the inverse correlation for the GBP JPY and respective pairs. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
6
USD CAD - Fibonacci Day sequence completeHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the original idea: USD CAD - Longs positions active AUD USD - USD CAD - Fibonacci Pattern work Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalance Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view Weekly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. Analysis breakdown: The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares USD/CAD - Grey USOIL - Orange AUDUSD - Pink Dollar Index - Blue These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue). American Treasury rates are going higher. When they will rise depends partially on the US labor market and partially on inflation. Janet Yellon needs to remain vigilant on the inflation status where bottlenecks are re-opening of the economy. However, price imbalances in commodities have a lot of upside remaining. So lookout for rate hikes. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - 4hour 50% Fibonacci rejectionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Scroll to the bottom to see valuable information regarding GBP AUD, NZD. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original analysis process. Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: - 1.72 - 1.75 we will be looking at a test of the order block, movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of a 1.72 redistribution, liquidity to show bears further short options before the lows. From here we will expect a spring and a test of said springs. A rejection will occur and then see accumulation phase of price hitting the target on the AUD USD with bullish Aussie. 2. Exactly the same but making further gains moving down to 1.67-1.60 which will be the development. We volume will be a key indicator here to see the set up of the buy/sell swaps. Moving to now... Monthly imbalances: Pretty simple breakdown from a monthly perspective, where GBP maxed out in March 2020 and began the sellers imbalance to reach lows of 1.742 as previously stated above. From a buying retrace imbalance - the targets are set at the 1.87 mark and 1.93 the next target. From a positional buy into 2022 if the 50% monthly Fibonacci retracement permits the target and holds above, then extension of 2.0X will be looked towards. Weekly imbalance While the GBP and Aussie is trading within a defined range - adding more positions on the range lows are pivotal here to maintain the long position. The weekly position now is clear with the daily candle to close within the Weekly, the probability to continue the rally base rally is evident. The movement since: Closely correlated pairs GBP NZD and EUR AUD weekly chart and monthly chart respectively using correlation and imbalances. Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. The DXY is pivotal DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. SPX vs AUD USD with an importance note of GBP AUD. The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Pre-march Current scenario: since the lowest point - where the monthly imbalance had hit the march low. GBPNZD 4 hour - Fibonacci rejection also, but the 61.8% as the correlation between the New Zealand Dollar is not 1:1 correlation. Both pairs have slippage as the pairs move quick in terms of volatile moves upon reactive zones. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
5
CAD JPY - Long imbalance opportunity upon completionHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to the selling opportunities further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the private analysis to prove the original move anticipated. Monthly Imbalances - with profit targets Attached is the daily chart with the current positional sell in play. Why? Ensure you check the screenshot below dated March 17th - the order was set as a sell limit where price will create a high probability of an imbalance at 90-91.5 - this is the monthly zone where the imbalance needed testing. Please note* - where price can produce a level which slips outside the monthly zone. Why did we set our order here? Very simple - the monthly and weekly align with two highly probable zones where the imbalances of reactive levels exist yet remain untested. The Monthly - highlights an area which has been clean since 2018 - and what this means, broken down is that price has offered a correctional downtrend, where overall the downward channel has shown a breakout - and a move towards the monthly zone. With a large candle pattern on the monthly printing pure bullish candles - the reason behind this is due to the buying imbalance offering a long from 74-76.3X. Weekly imbalances Here is the a high probable area predicted - where price was watched closely and sell limits were placed. Price will be pushing through this zone up towards the monthly. Price may show a smaller area where the initial weekly zone has an immediate corrective move to test the lower zone of the weekly. This is a slippage move, but does not allow a sell opportunity at present, this is purely where the imbalance is beginning to take shape. This is where the pivot points in the structure are placed. Bearish pathway - predicted 17th March 2021. See the above analysis and the screenshot below to see where price ended up. See the overlay Cross-asset analysis monthly & weekly imbalances applied only. EUR JPY - With the applied weekly imbalances and month available - here is where price will react. See the analysis attached NZD JPY The Monthly imbalance has not yet touched the correct zone, however the inefficient price thus far has been found in the weekly. although, this could be considered a lower monthly zone - be ensure to check the monthly timeframe. See the analysis attached GBP JPY With the highs of 156. XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. See the analysis attached JXY or Japanese Yen Index Here is the analysis of the Japanese Yen Index Note on the weekly channels have pushed the Yen to show "weakness" but now, price has hit the monthly and the imbalance is now applying. Weekly Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
S&P 500 - Fib 1.786 Reached - where now?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Monthly Imbalances Currently price has reached the 1.786 extension in a very quick fashion. The imbalance here on the monthly has not established itself for a sell, however a reactive level upon the monthly is the 1.786 Fibonacci Extension. Here is a potential imbalance to add longs Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented. Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high. Here is the weekly imbalances which have provided the roadmap for trading. The clear path of the Fibonacci sequence - with the price offering reaction levels upon the "0" Fibonacci, again at the 1.272 (although not used on the chart) the pivot point to create a higher low between 3700-3800. Daily Imbalances The daily chart offers the overall structure from the Extension targets, providing high probabilities for bullish pricing from the price reverting to first the ("1") Fibonacci which is a double top format. From here the price had an opportunity to look for higher highs to be created. Using the the Ray extension to infinite* - the reactive levels showed imbalances where price will form a reversion point being the ray. This will dictate "bounces" and offer new additions for longs. *infinite being, using the monthly chart to show a number outside the chart axis. Daily VIX or Volatility Index overlay With a Risk-on approach, the SPX or SP500 has created multiple opportunities to continue with price rising towards the imbalance zones. VIX Chart Stand Alone This is based on the weekly chart, where the VIX has been trading in a bearish channel. Now with the inverse correlation here printing lower lows and lower highs. The SPX is printing the opposite opportunities. The monthly imbalance is still presenting a high probability of inverse moves whereby the Bullish Risk-off scenario can present itself. (Only where the price creates higher lows and engulfs from 12-14XX. Comparisons using; RINF - Inflation Expectations ETF TLT - iShares 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF Based on the weekly as it shows further data and to distinguish patterns upon trading weeks. This is the best format to apply imbalances. Notice the inverse correlation with the Growth of the inflation ETF climbing to the double top imbalance which dates back to January 2019. The 20year bond yields are stuck in a zone of there own at this present moment distinguishing a noticeable pattern - heading towards an imbalance. for a closer display of the probability where the Vix can catch up to the 20 year yields. The VIX displays a depressed low - "Risk on approach" while witnessing the monthly imbalance to be tested. The run away of the yields however in the 20year in the past cycle rereferring to 2020 - highlights the yields to turn bullish from the imbalance in a flustered move to create a new high. The VIX is left behind but the trigger delay is then caught up and surpassed. Can this cycle repeat? Refer to the Chart below for the Aussie Dollar Vs US Dollar. Using the US Dollar strength to your advantage This explains it all in inverse correlated pair. Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX Black = DXY See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD , where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability. The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively. Here are the weekly timeframes to support: Removed Bearish Scenario, Bullish Entry scenario. FED Funds Commodities Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPX
by LupaCapital
5
GBP JPY - Testing the weekly imbalance? or down to 141?Hello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances and also a probability of a sell off. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note - I am an imbalance trader and long term setups will beat the short term. While short term trades are taken, the overall picture is more important. Therefore less is more. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Here is the weekly imbalance below - where price has comfortably retraced from the monthly imbalance zone. Previous analysis to this; What does the imbalance show? With the highs of 156.XX creating a needed retracement upon a pivot point - the monthly imbalance has been successfully filled. From here using confirmations - shorts were placed to hedge and override long positions. The weekly has created successfully - lower lows - meaning that price is looking to correct. Now where is a good take profit point or where is a strong area to add buys upon the imbalance? Scenario I Using the Bullish scenario - where price will test the weekly imbalance between 151-148 - noting a opportunity to add longs from here. Price has a fresh weekly zone - which is in this area. The pivot point will need to touch the imbalance and reject successfully. Daily imbalances Here is the daily imbalances - where prices has established three zones - where the monthly and weekly have created a as explained above, the lower lows. Price did create a low, and a retracement creating a further daily imbalance which was also the 50%-61.8% The price targets complete the pattern at estimated 148.3XX subject to price taking us to this imbalance point. Bearish scenario Where price is rejecting the 156 - price can fall to a potential low - towards 141. This is due to the heavy bullish imbalance which was established back in November 2020. Price had created a reversion point - and from here the imbalance had tested the rising channel - creating a huge opportunity. With imbalances - price can and will move back to retest the lower imbalance. Despite the overall *3month chart - producing a bullish consensus, the pattern can be a longer term buy. Where price has a probability of breaking the weekly imbalance - the chance of the price continuing is likely. Again this is using probabilities. Fibonacci - Daily Using the Fibonacci upon the daily timeframe, assists with looking for imbalances and confirms reaction points which aligns near levels which are of interest (by looking left). Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion. XAU USD - weekly looks interesting in terms of a correlation aspect. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
2
BTC SCENERIOSHey traders, Yesterday BTC broke through the bearish orderblock and snatched liquidity to move higher today. Today, I've spotted a distribution on the lower timeframes: If we do start to move downward, price will want to fill out the massive imbalance we created yesterday and then possibly move lower to fill out more imbalance or bounce higher to take out buyside liquidity. As always, if you found my analysis helpful feel free to like and follow as I'll post daily crypto updates and analysis. Happy Trading everyone!
Short
by TRADE_SNIPES
AUD USD - broke Fibonacci "0" - keep holdingHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Previous analysis: link here: See the previous work AUD USD, USD CAD The Aussie has now passed 0.76 hurdle first, using a a daily Fibonacci on the daily chart, the price levels of this very strong strength from the Australian Dollar, the Fibonacci retracement of 0.382% is a strong possibility which has now been proved as price action here tapped 0.772 zone and consolidated while still making higher lows - giving confidence of confluence here rising to the monthly imbalance. The next Hurdle is 0.80 which is our target for the next 3-5 months. The plan since the original analysis, price has been bullish and driving towards the 0.80 mark as expected. beating the analysis prediction at an early scenario by 1 week. Monthly imbalances Price has rejected the previous yearly lows of AUD USD at 0.55 to a $1.00 This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance for buyers. Weekly time frame Imbalances The weekly imbalances are shown and provide a clear indicator where 0.80 was a great opportunity with a key wick where price closed at the same price. The weekly imbalances once the short has initiated shows the lows to monitor at the next imbalance where price will offer two key scenarios; 1. - The probability of the rally, base, rally continuation . 2. - The probability of a rally, bounce, rally where price will offer an opportunity to sell again. Fibonacci Weekly and Daily Fibonacci levels. Weekly Fibonacci level using the high to the low - the retrace shows the opportunity at 0.618 or 61.8% - this also aligns next to the monthly "edge" however, looking left the wick highs failed to close inside 0.785XX, which means the rejection upon this level provides a perfect opportunity for a second sell position for a positional or weekly swing sell. Daily Fibonacci The Daily Fibonacci provided a double top or a 50% retracement rejection. For the shorter term sellers adding a position here would suffice, but recommend placing a larger position on the 61.8% as mentioned. The edge of the monthly imbalance, has key closes which come down to a daily level with fractal pivot points. Notice how price will revert to test the zone price has come from. But creating the formation of a lower high. SPX vs AUDUSD The correlation of the SPX and the Aussie is a positive correlation when the SPX is bullish , this allows the AUD USD to remain bullish . With respect for USD purposes where the SPX becomes bearish from an imbalance or has a trend breather, the correlation becomes a sell imbalance for the SPX and AUD based upon the USD having the fundamental safe haven positional stance for investors. Yields: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the SPX growth and AUD Bullish correlation. DXY criteria: DXY to see the imbalance reverse upon the devaluation of the USD where the FED has created an abundance of credit which has financed the citizens essentially to 'stay put' in cases whereby specific industry sectors within the US are rendered 'useless' until the hospitality and entertainment, aviation can all be kick started again. Below are the pivotal monthly imbalances on the chart which are hard to not notice. The Monthly imbalances clearly indicate where the profit targets for the DXY are as price has clearly rejected. Use this monthly imbalance analysis to help trade in a higher time frame. Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. XAU is also a factor here whereby XAU a hedge against inflation and a propulsion for the Aussie to provide further additional strength. Here is the graphical scale below: Where by the inverse of the AUD from 0.80 and a low of GBP AUD to 1.768XX, the opportunity arises for short positions and respective longs for the GBP. See the GBP AUD chart here for further updates. Gold production as the Aussie is a commodity currency. Gold discounted offering See here for the imbalances on Gold . This can help adjust the situation upon the USD. Why is gold falling? Well simply put volatile situations where the return of XAU maintains no yield, the Dollar however does Yield through interest rates. Gold will look to fall to level of around $1500 before examining next where the price is to move next. However pay attention to the 1700* whereby price has a good wick where price can closed out and may have an alternate buy opportunity here. 4 hour view - potential bearish continuation? Here we have a clear imbalance filled where price has touched the low and successfully rejecting as price closed out - confirming the imbalance. Now price has continued to sell off - looking for a low of the Fibonacci '0'' to be tested. From here price will look to continue and break the zone at the low structural four hour zone. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Short
by LupaCapital
3
EUR JPY - longs are still highly probableHello traders and analysts Below is a good recap of an analysis which was conducted back in December 2020 . A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is the weekly Imbalances - where the Euro has provided a clean fractal point on the monthly imbalance back between 120.00 - 122.XX JPY. The Fibonacci sequence using a four day and daily chart showed the newly created imbalance was a pivot point at the 61.8 - 70.5% Fibonacci retrace zone. see for further charts. Imbalances have a high probability for a retest which aligns with the monthly ray, where price will look to revert to for filling the wicks upon the four day fractals. Here is the application of using the Fibonacci extension - where the low has been taken using the monthly imbalance zone where the 114.3X becomes the - The high (or zero) is 127.16X where price - falters and provides a correctional using the imbalance . Here is the evidence where price has corrected using the Fibonacci retracement which has aligned the 61.8% with a great imbalance - and a upper correctional imbalance on the 38.2% This is using the four day perspective as a probability to prove the longs/call are still in play from the monthly imbalance. Probable scenarios - using probability applied to the imbalances and chart data. A possible scenario - where looking left, indicates a low probability of a correctional path. Please note - the weekly imbalance, where price has now exited - the imbalance is now a structural pivot level - where price can close back to - with a lower time frame imbalance offering a close out from sellers to allow the Bulls to 'breathe'. Scenario 2; Here is the Daily trendline - which accounts for a safe option as a base case scenario. Like previously stated, where wicks are occurring, price can identify this as a reversion point to pick up buy orders - as this is where imbalances lay waiting. Price can now consolidate or make an upside move and tail off when required. The trend is still in tact, the pair is currently in a correctional phases as imbalances are always retested. Cross correlation Using the correlation table - and using the average of variable x - where EUR JPY is variable X vs the average of variable Y - where CHF JPY is variable Y Using data from the screenshot below - with the built in indicator of the correlation coefficient. Below is the real cross asset weekly timeframe comparing the probability of imbalances - where two safe havens (CHF JPY) both indicate a new break of imbalance. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
AUD USD - USD CAD - Fibonacci Pattern workHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral due to analysing two charts. USD CAD Long due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. AUD USD - as price has overall since 0.80 provided short opportunities. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour To see the original analysis see below; AUD USD - 4hour time frame link here: USD CAD - analysis: USD CAD - Bigger picture using the daily time frame - here is why price has a high probability of reacting against this zone. Using the four hour Fibonacci sequence (inverse) as a hedging mechanism for the overall counter trend - based upon the imbalance at 1.22XX - 1.19XX The Fibonacci extension aligns from the Top - to the low and has an extension target which perfect adjusts to Compare the two charts - the right shows where price has a high probability of completing the pattern - and the imbalance has been filled - with a chance of rejecting and going back to continue towards the overall weekly imbalance as previously analysed. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. AUD USD Below is the Daily time frame - based upon the USD imbalance showing strength - the correction from 0.80 has been in a monthly imbalance. Now to add a shorter position - to hold for maybe one - three days. Here is the Eight hour timeframe applying the same scenario but for the bearish AUD USD. Here is the side by side comparison using the Eight hour (left) vs the four hour (right) The imbalance wick has been successfully filled on the eight hour imbalance and successfully rejected. GBP AUD Correlation Correlation: Correlation of GBP AUD vs AUD USD Imbalance spotting is important to note on one pair like GBP AUD, however the web behind the imbalance is just as important to keep in mind when looking for imbalance trades as pairs are called pairs for a reason. Looking into two variables where correlation is either Perfect positive correlation +1, 0 or Perfect negative correlation -1 i in simple Lehman's terms. AUD is coming from a monthly imbalance meanwhile GBP AUD will turn positive where price is coming from a monthly buy imbalance. Comparing the GBP AUD to the AUD USD - using a monthly correlation grid. The current at time of analysing is -79.7% negatively correlated. This has been due to the weak USD in play and the positive correlation against the SPX500 and the USD associated with the index. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
by LupaCapital
3
GBP NZD - tested the 0 Fibonacci and created a new imbalanceHello Traders and Analysts, This is a quick short term update: A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! June analysis: i]Trade education Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected. Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels. Finally executing - this is down to the individual. For me - using probability at the zone in the ellipse. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
6
SXP - June BreakdownHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged neutral, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Overall, assessing the short idea . Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original below: This will provide a good explanation with multiple charts and views which give enough evidence to create the possibility of the targets reaching the Fibonacci over extended pattern. Analysis for 2021 outlook. Multi-time frame analysis overview: Weekly time frame of imbalance analysis: Here is the weekly imbalances taking effect of the over extended Fibonacci sequence. The ray (trendline) has been indicating strong resistance and has been tested repeatedly thus far, creating wave patterns and more recently rejected weekly candle closes which close out the low of the weekly candle. . Here is the monthly timeframe: Price has moved towards the 1.618 and 1.786, this is now a critical zone to highlight. Price has now created the interesting inefficient pricing leaving a long imbalance short effect, this will require patience while the sequence is completed for the Selling imbalance to take place. However, smaller timeframes of course opportunities will be presented. Take note of an impulsive wick and instantly rejecting, this can be the creation of the imbalance all time high. Cross asset analysis: Where are we with the Inflation ETF - RINF VS SPX? Here is the current action view of RINF vs SPX EEM vs SPX What does the emerging markets show us? Well the imbalances are within the same as the US market, but the economic recovery in terms of imbalance price driving in the EEM - shows that whilst fundamentally there is more volatility . The activeness of these markets provides a telling Fibonacci extension target is not to dissimilar along with the SPX . Beware of XAU , XAG - currently lagging behind upon a large correctional imbalance move as inflation remains low, plus the imbalance zone not ready yet for action to be taken. EEM current scenario where EEM is outperforming the SPX still, with a risk-off approach, EEM being more volatile - the discounted factor will present opportunities. Vix vs SPX Do not forget about the VIX, the volatility index is currently at low levels within a monthly imbalance and creating a good sense of fractal movements within the lower time frames for example, the daily and 16 hour timeframes. Price is showing a good probability of supressed capitulation waters, in relation to the Fibonacci sequence - SPX will nearly or complete the move to $4360 est. and then the VIX will grow an increasing sign of bullish probability based on high inefficiency. XAU USD vs DXY What is the scenario at the current play . Price has shown that the imbalance of XAU will look to find a weekly imbalance before heading further towards the longterm targets above $2000 * * this links to the XAU idea: DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action. Current scenario of the DXY vs SPX Black = DXY See the split screen of the outcome of the weekly USD CAD , where price has rejected the weekly imbalance and still inside the monthly imbalance however, but the wick on the weekly has successfully filled in the wick creating a buying imbalance upon the shift of probability. The DXY has also noted a triple bottom where the monthly shows a strong probability of the negative correlation of the SPX and EUR USD where the imbalances will offer opportunities in buying imbalances, short imbalances respectively. Fed funds - tracker Removed - Volume profile Fed Funds tracker XAU XAG inflation tracker Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
TVC:SPX
by LupaCapital
1
USD CAD - Longs positions activeHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Attached to this idea I will be tracking the USD CAD and DXY. Monthly Imbalance Weekly Imbalances Below are the imbalances for the weekly, where the previous low 1.19XX had provided the closing wick for the monthly candle close. The imbalance here is key to understand the rejection and retest of the zone is highly probable. 1. Price closed and matched the May 18th 2015 weekly close - meaning the wick is successfully retested. 2. Price has now hit a pivot point and created a monthly imbalance. Looking to the weekly however, price traded a cluster of candles which shows the 'battle' printing indecision - what does this signify? Imbalance trading from buyers to sellers, sellers to buyers - as a imbalance trader - a trade will be placed here before an aggressive addition later. Further explanation: 3. When forming a sell position rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bearish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 1.466 to 1.469X. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle. Cross asset relationship between asset crosses Purple - XAU USD Dark Blue - US500 The reason for showing this chart here is with Canada and US both contributing to the top ten countries in output for the commodity. The Correlation of using Gold against the Standard & Poors 500 index shows the inverse of the US dollar imbalance as opposed to the SPX bullish imbalances. Gold is on a correctional imbalance as the Metal is cross correlated using a global investor asset whereas the focus on SPX is focused on the U.S markets. Monthly View USD CAD relationship with US OIL and EUR USD. Again here is another cross asset whereby Oil heavily produced by the USA and Canada a like. The EUR USD and Oil are both on bullish imbalances, however the imbalance on EUR USD has been confirmed and identified . Purple - EUR USD Dark Blue - US OIL The weekly view and monthly are key to providing inverse correlations and look for pivot , fractals on higher timeframes. In order to fully comprehend why these are crosses are key, looking into the chart shows key structural areas which on USD CAD can show a long probability. However on the Oil chart, can show an identified Selling probability. I. Weekly view Weekly view Fibonacci Extension Using this pathway build upon how the market cycle repeats, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. Weekly - Fibonacci extension Daily Fibonacci The daily Fibonacci pathway shows a completion of the -0.618 target, where price is now consolidating on a smaller timeframe. A cup and handle pattern is forming on the daily pattern. USD CAD vs DXY What does this show here? Well the US Dollar has been been seeing a downward move towards a strong imbalance which aligns with the USD CAD zone on the weekly timeframe. With the Dollar showing weakness and the DXY showing relative weakness, while yes the Dollar is weak. This important monthly zone will set up a buy/long opportunity where price will reject and consistently create an inverted pattern for example - Head and Shoulders, bull flag. Rejection wick for a false break. The Loonie has been trading in an exaggerated one figure rut for more than a month from 1.2035 to 1.2160 Most recently an engulfing ending Fridays trading session saw a bullish move to the upside. With Rising oil prices, which supports the Canadian economy and dollar, are poised against the strength of the US expansion and inflation, keeping the Canadian Dollar poised for strength. The chart below shows that a cross-asset comparison compares USD/CAD - Grey USOIL - Orange AUDUSD - Pink Dollar Index - Blue These are based on the weekly timeframe and without adding imbalances - the price lines both have noticeable - negative correlation and align to the imbalances upon the monthly. (charted in light blue). Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
GBP NZD - June analysis updateHello Traders and Analysts, Breakdown: 1. Note 2. Contents 3. Research breakdown 4. Education recap 5. Information on Lupa. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Contents Master Key for zones Red = Three Month Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Original Idea here: February 15th 2021. Previous Update to the trade - proof the analysis is working! Analysis Monthly imbalances Price has rejected multiple times the zone with 1.81 being the lowest wick on a monthly close. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance What is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the monthly top reaching 2.175XX March 2020 in line with the January 2016 - where the last supply imbalance was prominent. The candles leading up to the imbalance in January, February signify great bullish continuation closes showing a clear pathway to creating a monthly double top or at least a lower high. [The matching equal high here can be seen on the three month chart* * Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point or a pricing inefficiency. Weekly imbalances Price has rejected the monthly zone as well as on a weekly, the weekly close is showing bullish signs as the candle closes are creating higher lows. Further to this, the price analysis of the candle sticks show a strong engulfing whipsaw of a bearish week followed by a bullish week immediately after. This shows that price action on a lower time frame will indicate that the profit taking for the sellers are transitioning the imbalance of sellers to buyers. The gap from this zone where the imbalance has arisen, from a technical stand point gives the probability of the fresh zone on the monthly is the open target. Cross Pair Analysis: Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. Absolute correlation pairs GBP NZD comparing against the top correlators - GBP AUD and EUR NZD on a weekly time frame against the monthly timeframe. The idea here is provide insight as to how the pairs follow in correlation - and provide three options to trade across pairs. Despite the GBP NZD & AUD having relatively close imbalances - the great opportunity here is to provide strong and high probability areas to set a position and trade off it. Week imbalances using the over lay of GBP NZD imbalances - EUR NZD does not correlate as strong, however looking at the pair the weekly imbalance and monthly imbalances align with key signs of liquidity wicks which engineer the low and reject the zone. Trade education Using the Fibonacci across the 16 hour timeframe where price has created a "pullback", but what has happened here is price reached an imbalance and has fallen back towards the original imbalance as expected. The correctional move has taken place here and found it's imbalance zone where price will reject. Here is why I entered a second trade Here is the breakdown of the wedges, pennants and channels. Enjoy the trade - targets are based on the Fibonacci extension. The 61.8% confirmed a breakthrough was my entry. Do you enjoy the setups? 10 years combined analysis experience in capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, Team LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
2
ETH USD - short, then long. Hello analysts and traders, Read before commenting; Odd title, but the trend is bearish of course but the overall grand scheme of Ethereum, the imbalance has not yet reacted on the monthly - when this does, the outlook is long - subject to probability of the imbalance. The key here is to forecast here - via a pullback, sell, take profit, convert sells to longs and buyers take over. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour This is the first publication for free regarding Ethereum cryptocurrency, this will be a full comprehensive breakdown using imbalances - on a multi time frame analysis with cross pairs. A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Below are the monthly imbalances Firstly using the monthly timeframe, this has provided two key zones of interests for long positions. (i) the first zone has created a perfect early opportunity where price has firstly established a high of $143X dollars and retested the low - creating an inefficiency between the high and the low. Now from the low test - price has confirmed a strong imbalance where price can now target to create an equal high. (ii) the second zone which marks an in efficiency - is between $200 - 490, where the monthly zone had created a bearish month - by creating a pathway from the bearish candle high, notice how price closed out the previous wick on the falling pattern back in July 2018. This is the key identifier which price has re-aligned creating a fractal pattern on the weekly. where; (i) A bullish fractal is created when the low point is established, with two higher low bars/candles on each side of it. (ii) A bearish fractal occurs when there is a high point with two lower high bars/candles on each side of it. ** the current picture: Here are the weekly imbalances Here are the three zones which are imbalances created in the past. Price is currently forming a weekly/monthly imbalance at this moment, however it is difficult to determine without a close. So longs are still activated in a buying pattern upon the long term outlook and short term outlook . The first zone established - has been created using the previously created all time high from $1100 - $1400- the previous monthly wick has been closed out by the imbalances of the buyers and can become the lowest imbalance but also the strongest to identify where price will able to drop to in a bearish probable scenario. the second zone is placed above - where price created a retracement from the high established. Using the Fibonacci tool, price aligns to a low of 50% which touches the zone perfectly. This is a perfect pivot point to complete the overextension sequence using the weekly. [refer to chart ii ] Chart ii Price has established strong zones where price has created a bearish candle and price has reacted of this zone as expected - ultimately retesting the zone. The upper newly established imbalance on the four day has created a retest opportunity. The bears are coming! - which is normal as part of buying and selling imbalances. Using the 16 hour timeframe: Below are the sixteen hour imbalances where - price has shown a good opportunity for price to react to the following zones. Note the top zone is a Fibonacci zone - as stated in multi timeframes above. The true zone according to the imbalances are $3100-3500 for a opportunity to short again . Let price fall and react accordingly to the zones. Await the opportunity for the imbalance wick to close out - where price will be successfully filled. The reaction occurred as expected as the weekly zone below is the most important established imbalance. The overall big picture of Fibonacci combined with the imbalances: Note the 50% & 61.8% of the retracement zones are important here. Eight hour candles pathway for a potential smaller time forecast Cross pair analysis Tracking the closest correlated coins . Ethereum, of course being the 2nd highest coin . Key: Bitcoin cash - Orange Litecoin - Sky blue Monero - Yellow Stellar Lumens - Purple. Using a line chart graph, you can distinctly find where price has shown a similar market structure using imbalances. Notice the pattern formation on the in the two current zones. the correlated assets are providing insights, respective to the pathway desired by price between the new imbalances. All coins have , the extension pathway has created opportunities here to continue longs - where the weekly zones and monthly zones indicate the buying zones or profit targets for sellers in kind. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by LupaCapital
6
XLM USD - Forecast on track Hello Traders and analysts. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the previous analysis here: XLM USD Monthly Imbalances With a small amount of data here, where price creates a new all time high, this is considered a daily, weekly or monthly imbalance so long as price retraces back to a zone e.g. a daily imbalance candle and fills a wick upon an aligning Fibonacci level. These zones have been highlighted due to the imbalance showing a strong pivotal reversion point where price has set a psychological level of $0.60, this was also a structural level of -0.618 Fibonacci extension . The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around $0.60-0.41 established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in January 2021 created a all time high*, whereby $0.43 was structural point where price was, informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. Previous: s3.tradingview.com Price has now established the monthly imbalance where price will be able to correct and continue to create new all time highs. Please note - the Monthly imbalance is wide - with respect to $0.20 cents. The reason for this is due to the scope of the imbalance on hand being established* no month thus far has provided a fractal structure to indicate the probability taking over. Weekly imbalances The imbalances are clear here, with two in efficiencies identified. 1. - The upper newly created all time high has provided a correctional move where the 50-61.8% Fibonacci retracement is in play. 2. - The imbalance wick between $0.38 - 0.30 needed filling as part of a engineer low for the imbalance to take effect for further longs. This was my previous analysis: March 14th. s3.tradingview.com Previous daily imbalances: The Daily imbalances are showing a rally base rally correctional wave formation for those who look at wave patterns. However the path is a clear indicator of Imbalance, fresh high, imbalance fill, create a new imbalance and create a new fresh wick imbalance for price to fill and hold the market structure. Currently price is looking to create lower lows while being squeezed out to create a low discounted imbalance change over between the sellers and buyers. Here price will be monitored for additional positions. tradingview.com Current Daily imbalances: This is how the current formation is looking using the flag parallel channel formation. While this is not a normal tool an imbalance trader would use it is a definitely insightful tool to highlight ranges which provide opportunities to add positions using the daily timeframe - where looking to buy and sell upon a rising range. Eight hour imbalances Here are the two imbalances price is currently ranging between. Note price is on the upward path to retest the all time high. Cross asset comparison using the 2 week time frame Each asset here has produced the same formation but with a relative price swing - which is respective to the asset in question. Swings may be visible to "volatility" however a smaller price from $1 to 0.50 is 50% far more dramatic than $200 to $170. The boxed zone is an interesting pathway following ETH. As ETH provides a strong weekly and month imbalance - this will determine great pivot points of reference which align to the imbalance. Taking a look at Ethereum and Stellar - understand the correlation pattern the two coins have are very closely correlated. Keep an eye on how the more expensive asset moves affecting Stellar. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:XLMUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
GBP JPY - imbalance awaitsHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Once price hits the imbalance an update will be provided and the re-analysed zone will be subject to short. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous analysis updates are below: 155 Price target Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly imbalances: Price has rejected the previous all time low of GBP JPY. It is important to note here as to why this area on the low is so significant. This zone is a powerful buying zone for positional holders like us for two reasons; 1. - Price is clearly making lower highs 2. - The monthly wicks are closing bullish - suggesting the zone is a fractal buying imbalance - with clear evidence of a engineered liquidity wick rejection. Weekly Imbalances The reason for buying in at this level is simply due to the imbalance being filled on the weekly at 140.5-70, this zone was the top of a trading range where patience is required here for a Fibonacci retracement back to 137 zone. Upon a rejection to 136.80+ a buy would be prominent. Keeping the outlook in perspective is the key to buying on a higher timeframe, more aligns and there is less noise to worry about regarding reversals, trading ranges. The reason behind the entry point here at 137.80 The monthly and weekly imbalances above the buy zone at 136.69 are geared for longs as the imbalance is yet again filled. Daily Imbalances: Now that 152 target has been reached - this is now in a weekly and daily imbalance where price will look to use the previous daily and weekly former imbalance to create a range for one final push into the next zone . From here price will be monitored watching the all important weekly imbalance at the top of the structural move. The daily imbalances in have been patient levels to signify buys. - Previous analysis has provided clear indicators as to why these are buying opportunities. Price will fluctuate back to a low of 148, to regain liquidity measures and false breakout the sellers will be trapped with further imbalance buy power. Profit taking As mentioned in the previous analysis 150, 152, 154 are even numbers to take partial profits. From this trade, profits have been taken leaving a small ending balance to follow through with smaller imbalances maintaining the open interest swaps. Cross correlations between GBP USD, XAU USD The price chart here signifies what GBP USD is doing, where the dollar is correcting against the pound from an imbalance level at 1. 40 - price is now in a correctional phase, awaiting a buy move, therefore GBP JPY with a strong inverse, is also experiencing the same inverse phase. The 16 hour chart above shows some key levels marked by the Yellow line markings show the correlation between the asset prices using GBP as a positive and XAU as a negative. The correlation will vary between time frames, but in terms of the way the range works, this ignores noisy data on the lower time frames and highlights different imbalances which match up using the four day and weekly crossing of imbalances. Current cross analysis Here is the current analysis using the four day view and the monthly chart to see the rise of the Pound Sterling against the cross pairs as well as the correctional move for Gold. Here is the multi-time frame analysis showing the eight hour imbalance currently being filled. The probability for this to continue moving toward the range top is clearly on the side of the move completion. Fibonacci pathway in which price is following smoothly since the low with a great test of the 50% retracement as expected. There pivot points are clear with the imbalances and align in the historical data where 'whipsaw' effects occur, this is showing a clear indication of an imbalance and fractal pattern creating the fresh level. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Long
by LupaCapital
2