Imbalance
EURCAD SHORT TO 1.38000EURCAD have been on the rise since August 2022, and now approaching the highs of 2022, what are my expectations?
We can see that above the 2022 highs, there is a weekly imbalance I labelled, so price might get to that highs before going bearish, remember that the first leg of the M formation, formed on December, so this will be our second leg. So we expect this move to flow to 1.38000
Why shorting?
There on the monthly timeframe, there is a high resistance zone we are currently on and we expect continuation of trend to the downside.
Please do share, and give a follow to support.
BTCUSDT LIQUIDITY STRUCTUREBTCUSDT price has been experiencing upward movement toward the previous SELL IMBALANCE & LIQUIDITY VOID created by previous sharp SELL OFF , so it is wise to consider SELL around these levels
Also price is reaching the BUY SIDE LIQUIDITY above previous EQUAL HIGHS at 32500
there are still strong UNMITIGATED SUPPLY LEVELS on the way and it is smart to consider SELL POSITION to the target of UNMITIGATED DEMANDS and FVG's around 24k$ to 20k$
If market want to become BULLISH it must clear the SELL SIDE LIQUIDITY first , which this HAS NOT HAPPENED yet , so I'm waiting for SELL ENTRY above previous EQUAL HIGHS to the target of DEMANDS from previous upward move that they pull the price down like GRAVIGY
EUR/USD - Back to fair valueEUR/USD analysis for next week. Price currently reacted on the H4 fair value gap after a long bullsih push. We took out liquidity first on London open and then on NY open causing a market structure shift on the m15 timeframe. You can look for a potential setup to go short once price retraces and potentially fill the FVG + Imbalance on this m15 swing that caused the break. Wait for rejection on the zone for a potential short targeting fair value (50% of the swing).
USDJPY Short IdeaWe are Currently in Premium, testing a Bearish Orderblock in the form of PDA. Inside this Orderblock, we have a new orderblock from which price moved rapidly away from as well as it took out previous high, which validates the OB. Price Manipulated the Previous Highs with a long wick, making this a Smart Money Reversal. We have a lot of FVG and EQL (SSL) to fill in. As another confirmation, we expect a retracement down as we have an overextended W, which should attract the market to move downwards.
If the price should reach there, I'm looking to scale off some profits at around 110.077.
Two possible Scenarios,
One entry (main setup), it's a lower entry so more likely to get triggered.
One entry at Equilibrium (CE), which has way better Risk to Reward but is less likely to get triggered. (however, LTF created lots of imbalance inside the new OB, which could definitely get filled)
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Confirmations:
- In Premium
- Orderblock INSIDE bigger Orderblock
- Manipulation of the High
- FVG & SSL Targets
- W formation Retracement
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My ONLY Concern for me is that we have a lot of News today which could impact price to move the other direction.
This may fail, but at least I'm not afraid to show my risk to reward box BEFORE it happens, unlike 95% of everyone on this platform.
If it fails, I still have a strong belief that these FVG and SSL level will get filled soon, and I'll still keep them as targets for future trades.
⚖️ Auction Market Theory📍Auction Market Theory, developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer and expanded upon by Jim Dalton in his book Mind Over Markets, explains how financial markets function as auctions where buyers and sellers interact. The theory focuses on two main objectives: facilitating trade through a two-way auction process and determining the fair value of assets. Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery play a crucial role in this process. Auction Market Theory is represented using tools like Market or Volume Profile, which utilize bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔷 In a balanced market , buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value. This leads to lower volatility and prices that remain relatively stable, resulting in a ranging market. The fair value can be recognized using the Market or Volume profile, which appears as a Gaussian bell-shaped curve. However, financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely. New information, whether fundamental or technical, causes markets to move away from fair value and transition into a different environment.
🔷 Imbalance refers to the opposite of balance, where there is a disagreement about fair value. In this scenario, one side of market participants becomes more aggressive, leading to a trending market. Typically, markets tend to trend only about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time. When the market is within the value range, it is more likely to remain in balance and explore within that range. However, in the case of an imbalance, the market often drifts higher or lower until it reaches a stop, typically within a previous value area.
💥Key Takeaways:
🔸 Auction Market Theory explains how financial markets function as auctions, focusing on facilitating trade and determining fair value.
🔸 Supply and demand dynamics and price discovery are essential in the Auction Market Theory process.
🔸 Tools like Market or Volume Profile use bell-shaped curves to identify the value area, representing 68% or 1 standard deviation from the mean.
🔸 In a balanced market, buyers and sellers agree on prices based on their perception of fair value, leading to lower volatility and a ranging market.
🔸 Financial markets rarely stay in balance indefinitely, as new information causes them to move away from fair value and transition into different environments.
🔸 Imbalance occurs when there is disagreement about fair value, leading to a trending market.
🔸 Markets tend to trend about 20% of the time and range about 80% of the time.
🔸 When the market is within the value range, it is likely to remain in balance and explore within that range.
🔸 Imbalanced markets often drift higher or lower until they reach a stop, usually within a previous value area.
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Panning for Gold on market structureOANDA:XAUUSD
Didn't take a trade today, as I scalped my usual 10 spot early on Asia session open.
But looks like the markets treated everyone good today with the hopes of USA debt ceiling fight might be resolved soon.
Gold looking good on this 4H market structure template
EUR/USD Forecast - May 18th '23My analysis on EUR/USD for the upcoming trading day. Price is currently stuck between two important zones and has now switched the structure to a bullish pattern. We reacted off a very important H4 imbalance giving price the strength to potentially fill the H4/Daily Imbalance above. Potential liquidity hunt on London open if we keep on building liquidity during Asian. Expecting liquidity grab to continue bullish at least until the Imbalance above. Good luck traders.
Possible Trade Plan for GBPUSDFX:GBPUSD
Here is my view for an upcoming trade. Over all looking to be on the buy side , clean level of demand resting in an extreme discount at 1.24200 where we could target the imbalance resting above at 1.25700
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EUR/USD London Open - May 10th '23Aggressive short setup on EUR/USD, we took out liquidity and reacted on the zone as explained on the previous trade idea. We have confirmation after double hunt of liquidity. Trade is aggressive because m15 structure is still long and we just took out an important H4 low
GBP JPY - Moving on up G'day,
Master Key for zones
Black = Yearly
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Three, Four Day
Orange = Daily
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Below are some of the take aways from the video.
Daily Chart
Bonus Four day hour chart
Weekly Chart
Monthly Chart
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