GBPCADWe've caught the sell back down to fill the imbalance, now gearing up for another 600 pip bullish rally.
I will hold my sells as I wanted GBP pairs to drop lower before the rally but the elections had different ideas about that so we will see how this now plays out to potentiall end 2019 with a strong GBP.
Imbalance
Bank Nifty Indian Index bullish bias with new weekly imbalancesBank Nifty Indian Index bullish bias with new weekly demand imbalances.
Bank Nifty Indian index has a clear long term long bias, bearish corrections must exist if we want to plan a trade using imbalance. The Indian stock market and its indexes does not move in straight lines and so do the other world indexes, the Indian Bank Nifty and Nifty 50 indexes are not an exception.
As explained in a previous Bank Nifty Index analysis and forecast a few weeks ago, we were expecting price to rally strongly after seeing that strong weekly demand imbalance created around 27300. Bank Nifty Index has done as expected rallying very strongly,
As explained in previous Bank Nifty NSE index analysis, we had a super strong weekly demand level around 27300 where we want to go long and that imbalance has played out nicely as expected. Check previous Bank Nifty supply and demand analysis, we called that trade months before price ever retraced to that price level and demand imbalance. At Set and Forget trading community we call the trades before the fact, sometimes weeks and months before price returns to the levels explained in our technical analysis.
CADCHFConfirmations
Market structure
Institutional candle highlighted in yellow
Fib levels are between 62 - 88%
Imbalance below
4 out of my 5 criterias have been met which has made this trade for me a high probable set up, i am expecting price to go higher to atleat 50% of the institutional candle which is where my second entry is however right now price seems to be coming down.
With the interest rate coming out later today i suspect to see a lot of ranging movement. This may mean that i may have to exit my trade taking money off the table and find a new entry after the rate has been announced.
I have provided a market outlook on a range of pairs for this week ahead youtu.be
XAUUSD - GOLDWe've had the accumulation Wyckoff phase happening for the last 2 weeks for a push to the upside. With mitigation currently happening meeting our reversal 71.8 Fibonacci level, my bias is currently to the downside with my sell limit being met. I won't be surprised if this pushes higher to the price points of 1527 however to fill the huge imbalances we have at those levels.
GBPJPYIf we get a (very slow) pull back filling imbalances down to these levels I'll be looking to pull the trigger on a bullish rally to the upside clearing liquidity and potentially closing out the open order above once clearing the resistance area marked out in green.
Alot of.... PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
AUD/CAD short. Reaction from institutional levelExpecting an impulsive reaction downwards from 0.90500 level. 71% OTE(optimal trade enrty) fib level agrees with the imbalance zone and the strong level of 0.90500. High probability trade, minimal risk, tight stop loss just above 0.90675 covering the top of liquidity capturing candle 4H chart September 19 04:00 o'clock (UTC+3).
XAUUSD - GOLDWe have been in the Wyckoff distribution event phases for the last week.
The current move to the downside is looking like a fake out to me (I hope) to make 1 more move to the upside as I am hoping for the UTAD move to be met which should finally see our big sell off to the downside which also fills ineffecient imbalance and also has the opportunity to close the open order above.
As always..... PATIENCE - CONFIRMATION - ENTRY - PROFIT
NZDUSD LONGWith the last equal low below soon to be taken out the market has left a lot of liquidity pools above combined with imbalances and mitigation zones. By identifying institution candles also this trade is a high probability set up for me as i believe the upside targets must be taken out before a continued downward move.
I plan on holding this trade for as long as it takes, the imbalance zones are very noticeable on the 4H time frame and leave large indications to exit areas and signs of reversals which can create potential re-entry points.
Lets see what happens
EURNZD SHORTInteresting set up on all time frames, a nice reaction off of 50% from a previous weekly candle has given us a sniper entry and now going down into the daily time frame the pull back we had has given another nice entry. Going down to the 4H you can see areas of liquidity visible along with multiple imbalances, beneath that we have mitigation zones and institutional candles. Another confluence was that price was discounted which gave me reason to execute a second sell.
Will be closing half my positions once i am 100 pips up.
GBPJPY BEARISHAs we can see price struggled to break the bearish structure on the daily despite the bullish rally we have previously just had, i would like to see price now come down to at least 61% which for me i have marked this zone in green and the blue zone being 88%.
Mondays are never really a day i look to enter markets but over the next coming weeks as we are also approaching brexit talks i would like to see the pound fall and in doing so mitigating candles below and filling imbalance.