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Imbalance

NZD JPY shortHello, just a quick one analysts and traders We have a good opportunity as the supply zone in the green has been rejected. On the 4 hour we drew a second fibonacci to look for an entry point as you can see on the chart. The Aussie is still strong but needs a retracement - price can continue to breakthrough but the sells are in play for now. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
3
GBP AUD - update Hello traders and analysts, we have a nice update to GBP AUD - now the weekly and monthly zone has been touched and rejected - the bulls are in play now COT data: - will update when released Tuesday in the comments. Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly range formed bettwne the red zone and green highlighted - monthly we have seen a demand formed and a great monthly bullish candle. 1.84 has now been rejected twice so the next hurdle is to overcome this. - strong Aussie and Strong GBP - bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.72+ for upside strength and struggling to break. - COT report in favour of GBP now with longs added and shorts closed in the past few weeks however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package - but no agreement GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors, however with the Aussie struggling with Dollar correction and GBP strength in orders, the Aussie will be unfavourable in the pair. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
USD CHF - new short opportunity update Hello traders and analysts, Here is an update - see linked idea below. we have a new opportunity for the USD CHF - we have a nice correctional move for some dollar strength after an impulse move - however; the 50% fibonacci has been rejected - so now looking for a entry if price corrects up to 38.2% or the 50% again - in order to collect further orders. Remember: Trading is reactive - The Dollar is weak - but still has an opportunity here to reverse before the ride continues down. Nothing has changed to our previous bias - it is clear longs have been added. Expectations based on the consolidation: Technicals: 20month + consolidation of the pair ranging from 1.00 to 0.93 - now the price has broken the distribution Weekly demand zone - however, the demand has previous touches this is the so the chances of a breakthrough from the strong safehaven of the CHF is a likelihood. Looking at the VIX - we can see this increasing by a large amount first targets are 40.00 DXY the dollar is weakening to a 95.2 lows - however the buying of this at the lows will produce huge rewards - the lows of 82 are to be tested. Looking at Russell and SPY has the gap to fill to $340.00 per share , is this sustainable growth which is being propped up - with earnings quarter now in play, we will see those numbers finally provide profit targets either severely missed or the few will beat earnings . Nasdaq monthly close will be a bearish hammer unless bulls keep the 10,600 supply intact. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Short
by LupaCapital
1
EUR USD vs Exy Hello traders and analysts - We have our take on the EUR USD - a lot of speculators have seen the Euro as the stronger of the currencies against the USD which has been seen as out of favour - but this is all part of the plan from the FED and US government in order to see the dollar as good for import and export . Is this all part of the money printing plan for the future to de-value the dollar? or a huge mistake causing an sovereign debt crisis? or just part of supply and demand? Let's see the Data: COT Data: EUR AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 180,947 86,109 267,056 68% 32% 94,837 2,910 Avg_20 171,218 105,719 276,937 63% 37% 65,499 9,843 Avg_130 169,626 177,152 346,778 51% 49% -7,256 3,155 Avg_50 169,349 175,216 344,565 51% 49% -5,867 3,381 USD AVG Long Short Total long% Short % Net Change Avg_13 18,057 12,046 30,554 60% 40% 6,462 -1,569 Avg_20 19,538 12,046 31,584 62% 38% 7,491 -958 AVG 50 30,399 11,917 42,316 70% 30% 18,481 -742 Avg_130 31,126 12,171 43,297 70% 30% 18,955 -672 Technicals: Monthly Fibonacci retracement drawn and shows price will either bounce and reject 61.8% Fibonacci retrace a break to the upside will test the 70.5% or hit the 1.21 zone - Note the monthly trendline from using the Ray - has proved the constant lower highs and lower lows printed in the cycles. The lowest low of 1.066 has shown a good retest zone for targets. Fundamentals: US election rallies before taking place at the end of the year with campaigning - We have NFP numbers showing millions return to work.. but also high unemployment still looming. Trade war with China, Hong Kong unfolding with US responding High figures in multiple states which are concerns for large communities- record numbers still being released Fiscal intervention in July, August for stimulus.. constant printing money is not good for the economy. US tech stocks have seen the highest returns and zero confirmation by Dow30 and S&P following suit. - will this last? no.. billionaires just adding wealth, SME businesses not receiving the correct funding at all.. Dow 30 is in a fragile state and desperate to keep pushing higher but limited upside will cause a steep decline - refer to Dow chart.. around 27,000 is a good point for a previous monthly high but it may fall over at 28000 tops. Crippling 1trillion money printing exercise to be released to prop up false growth. enter sovereign debt crsis - printing all this money is just beyond words. With having a weak dollar and inflation created - the dollar will be out of favour. Euro second wave & quarantine rules for tourists outside EU and now Spain for UK. Brexit talks are still in focus as not much separates a no deal scenario. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
TVC:EXYShort
by LupaCapital
Tracking MOC vs SPY (also potential Long Signal)First off, MOC and MOC Imbalances are two things I am still in the process of learning and understanding better, so I am not claiming to be an expert on the topic. Please chime in if I have wrote anything incorrect or if you have something valuable to contribute! A Market-On-Close (or "MOC") order is an order sent to trigger near the market close. We see this pretty routinely trigger 10 minutes before the closing bell, and it often produces some fireworks with sudden, spiky moves in one direction or the other. There is often an imbalance in one direction-- Buy, or Sell-- which can sometimes seem random, but when smoothed can help show flows into the market or out. I took a little bit of time to just color the periods on SPY in the last year or so for the 4 scenarios of the 20 day moving average of MOC imbalance. They are as follows- DARK RED MOC is Below 0 and Increasing in that direction --> Sell Imbalance LIGHT RED MOC is Below 0 and Decreasing/Reversing LIGHT GREEN MOC is Above 0 and Increasing in that direction --> Buy Imbalance DARK GREEN MOC is Above 0 and Decreasing/Reversing I think you could generally say these phases of the MOC Imbalance correlate with SPY. The two phases of Light Red and Light Green (moving from a Sell Imbalance to Buy Imbalance) have generally shown to be good old fashioned bull fun. Dark green often is a profit taking phase. Dark red is usually when its too late or just the start of the descent. Here are crude measurements of the light red and light green phases, their gains and length of time- +4.39% in 44 days +7.27% in 50 days +4.22% in 30 days +4.50% in 24 days +4.55% in 45 days +25.00% in 31 days +15% in 24 days Presently, so far: +4.15% in 15 days The times I did not include, which are obviously the recent outlier, is from February to early March. If you had a good chart of the 20sma MOC in front of you like I do, you could see there were a couple times when it looked like the MOC had reached its bottom and was going to start reversing and heading towards a Buy Imbalance, only to get rejected and keep selling. The actual confirmed bottom never happened until March 20th, so you could say that was the true start of this light red colored area, but I felt it was relevant to still color those as if it was a real-time scenario. It also helps show how that crash really manifested itself, with a lot of traders/investors thinking the end of February is just a dip or buying opportunity, to manifest into a rug pull. Myself and others have been thinking this week and last that a melt-up is on its way, and the MOC turning above 0 today to a Buying Imbalance could be a great bit of data to possibly confirm this. Where do you find MOC Reports? I only started looking at them recently from Market Chameleon so unfortunately I do not have any great resources to point people towards other than Market Chameleon. I hear that its publicly disseminated information, though. Here's their -free- daily report- marketchameleon.com They also have a more aggregated report, which is what I used, but that is behind a pay wall.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by chrism665
5
GBP AUD - back in longs after 1.765 structure rejectedHello traders and analysts, we have a nice update to GBP AUD - now the weekly and monthly zone has been touched and rejected - the bulls are in play now COT data: Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. The sentiment has changed dramatically Aussie cot Data - Date Long Short Total %Long %Short Net Change 14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944 07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214 30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902 23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722 16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043 09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216 GBP COT 14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822 07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582 30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474 23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518 16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050 09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996 Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish - monthly also bearish - - strong Aussie and Strong GBP - bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP USD - Risk on scenario Hello traders and analysts, Here is our take on GBP USD - the trade is active, with FX it is a moving target so we will look for an additional entry upon a nice supply up coming but will it hold? the answer is yes, so price reacted at our 0.705 and resisted - now we have a long aiming to close into the purple zone. COT report: Long Short Total %Long %Short GBP Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% USD Avg_13 18,508 12,046 30,554 60% 40% Avg_20 19,886 11,437 31,323 63% 37% AVG 50 31,006 11,782 42,788 71% 29% Avg_130 31,573 11,946 43,520 71% 29% Technicals: We have a good opportunity here to break the trendline as the triple top formation failed with heavy resistance at 1.265XX and weekly fibonacci level of 0.705 this could be a strong opportunity to sell again. However, be aware of the above supply which is a full retracement from lows of 1.14 - 1.15 if price reacts and falls back into the range - look for a range sell, however if price shows a breakout and closes above with a weakened dollar. look long There is bullish sentiment on the 4hour, but daily we can still a nice range here - it is shaking out a lot of investors which is good for liquidity grabs and flow of funds between the players. We are playing the supply and demand here between bulls and bears. This is all that matters. for this trade however we are in short. Add sell positions if a fakeout of the retest of the breakout to create a lower low. Fundamentals Coronavirus in the EU and UK - both showing cases in respective countries, Euro stimulus package has not been agreed so can show signs of strength of GBP if this fails to transpire. Brexit talks - will send the pound with huge strength once a deal is reached - inverse will send EUR to almost parity if talks end and no deal is reached Keep a watch for manufacturing orders in Germany and any causes for concern within France, Italy, Germany and Spain which can drag data components down. Vaccination attempts to drive market sentiment. USD safehaven upon tensions between HK move on China vs USA debate. USA - cases in multiple states are high risk, the disconnect is unbelievable. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. To all our followers, we appreciate the follow and likes. Thanks, Team Lupa
Long
by LupaCapital
GBP AUD - long term buys - impulse into the range againHello traders and analysts, We have an update to our GBP AUD trading range - price is still very much ranging but we have managed to yet again catch a trade to the upside whilst still hedging the downside movements. Over the end of last week, we saw the Aussie get stronger but was not enough to break through to 1.78 area. so the demand zone still stands and the range is in play and active. COT Data: Aussie Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 30,441 54,256 84,697 36% 64% Avg_20 33,958 63,290 97,248 35% 65% Avg_50 39,133 76,363 115,496 34% 66% Avg_130 38,877 76,625 115,502 34% 66% COT data: Pound Avg_13 32,923 49,892 82,815 40% 60% Avg_20 41,245 43,918 85,163 48% 52% Avg_130 43,323 68,286 111,609 41% 59% AVG_50 43,547 67,458 111,004 41% 59% Technicals: What can we see technically? - Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel. - weekly bearish zone touched - bounce from the demand zone zone. - we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred. - we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction - now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing. -AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.70 for upside strength. -Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading. - COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment. Fundamentals Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc. Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia. Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates. USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package. Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Much appreciated Thanks, Team Lupa.
Long
by LupaCapital
AUD USD update with new shortHello everyone, we wanted to try something a little different today but doing a quick video showing our AUD USD intra day chart. Swings The technical side; Supply imbalance - weekly Daily - manipulation move in the supply zone 1 hour chart shows a wedge pattern which allowed the bullish momentum to correct and look for upside potential, however this failed and we caught the trade during the London open. If you did not catch this move, this is no problem. Look for a pullback and re-enter when price has shown good wicks to reject upside moves. or Fibonacci 1 hour levels for intra-day trades. Watch out for on the way down for false dips, but the confluence of the trade will take us down to a level of 67.5 before hitting a strong zone with a trend breather, we will look to close 80% of the trade around 67.5 level from here we can expect consolidation build up below this level as the busy days of the week are Wednesday and Thursday. COT: Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 26,250 58,009 84,259 31% 69% USD is showing it's strength now as a time of uncertainty. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. We trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Take care out there. Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
AUD USD short 1 hour intraday trade Swings The technical side; Supply imbalance - weekly Daily - manipulation move in the supply zone 1 hour chart shows a wedge pattern which allowed the bullish momentum to correct and look for upside potential, however this failed and we caught the trade during the London open. If you did not catch this move, this is no problem. Look for a pullback and re-enter when price has shown good wicks to reject upside moves. or Fibonacci 1 hour levels for intra-day trades. Watch out for on the way down for false dips, but the confluence of the trade will take us down to a level of 67.5 before hitting a strong zone with a trend breather, we will look to close 80% of the trade around 67.5 level from here we can expect consolidation build up below this level as the busy days of the week are Wednesday and Thursday. COT: Long Short Total %Long %Short Avg_13 26,250 58,009 84,259 31% 69% USD is showing it's strength now as a time of uncertainty. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. We trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Take care out there. Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
GBP NZD currently shortLong term we will update with our long bias, however the sells are still looking to test the weekly and monthly zone this week. Technicals: Downtrend - rejection of monthly supply Daily in a weekly and monthly zone - demand could be a potential swap zone as the zone underneath is a setup for a strong fresh touch of demand. However, the GBP is weak, so is the NZD over 13AVG weeks GBP NZD AVG weekly COT Report, Non commercials: Short: 43,607 Long 31,477 Previous week report: Short 29,654 62% Long 48,170 38% NZD USD Short: 11,705 67 % Long: 24,107 33% Short: 16,174 50% Long:16,189 50% Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted. Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias. Why follow us? Updates on our pairs as and when we can. Swing trade out looks 10 years combined experience in capital markets simple breakdowns for beginners to advanced . KISS - keep it simple stupid. we trade purely from naked charts, less indicators - remove the noise. If you like our work, please leave a like or comment. Many thanks for your support to our existing and new followers. Take care out there. Thanks, Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
DAX - shortDax correction or long term? Regardless - we are short What can we see technically? A strong supply level. which price has tested and was respected. The imbalance of the supply is evident due a strong engulfing on the daily . Targets are the zones market on the chart and beyond . If the daily target bounces - we will allow price action to either reject the zone or use the zone as a swap zone. Fundamentals behind the move are caused by the virus second wave, Brexit and recession in Germany. Further to this stimulus bills in place to keep Germans from losing respective jobs. If you like our work, please leave a comment and like. Thanks, Team Lupa.
XETR:DAXShort
by LupaCapital
AUD USDDaily time frame we have a good sell off pattern as price hit our weekly supply imbalance. Price made a good manipulation move yesterday during NY hours. The technical side; Supply imbalance - weekly Daily - manipulation move in the supply zone Watch out for on the way down for false dips, but the confluence of the trade will take us down to a level of 66 before hitting a strong zone with a trend breather and consolidation build up below this level. If you like our work, please leave a comment and like. Thanks Team Lupa.
Short
by LupaCapital
1