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Imbalance

XAU USD - the pathwaysHello traders and analysts A Note before reading - this is a technical qualitative analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Volume is used on occasion as well as quantitative features - which will be explained. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See the SPX or US500 analysis here: Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Below are the imbalances which are clearly outlined; (i) the first imbalance, shows the 2020 low whereby price has retested the zone between 1112 - 1180, the previous imbalance identified is comprised of the Spinning top - while on a monthly body, the evidence is clear here where price will experience a buyer, sellers imbalance - giving the high probability of price closing out sells and creating a high buying imbalance upon the low. (ii) the second imbalance is between 1447 - 1554 (despite this being a huge range - the reason for this zone is due to the price creating a high of 1554, which price has established - imbalances will be retested and filled successfully . Notice the monthly doji - before the bullish engulfing candle** (see screenshot two) to understand where the imbalance has filled the low closing of the high. Price reacted and created the buying imbalance - converting the sellers to close out or buyers hedging positions. ** imbalance filling example (iii) Price then established a high of 2077.XX - 1966 imbalance upon the monthly. This is now the Fibonacci monthly top - or the weekly target using Fibonacci on the extension target for further evidence of the high reaching the target top. From here though, the imbalance converted the high - to the Fibonacci 38.2*, whilst this is only a confirmation, the real reason for this is price will close out the imbalance at 1673 - which needed filling. This created a pivot point within the market structure to establish further longs. Now adding the weekly imbalances Here are the highlighted zones which are where the imbalances have occurred. Notice how these zones align within the monthly imbalances. These are clearly defined as outlined by the second chart. . Whereby price has touched the imbalance low and closed out the wick. This has proved the monthly level imbalances and determines the pivot structure. Four day, 16 hour is privatised Daily Imbalances The Daily levels are shown and on the imbalance wick - before price has created an engulfing candle. The price shows the target of the range at 198X.XX - this will form a range top before the four day, weekly imbalance and daily imbalance above. Price will look to leave a wick here for a high towards 1990 where the previous wick high was. This will be needed where the imbalance. Where gold is heading using trendlines and patterns. The idea of what price is looking to achieve - using the eight hour chart as a drawing tool. Cross-asset comparison Here is the XAU XAG sector index for a cross comparison showing the levels of commodities - showing the rise in precious metals are back with the imbalances. Weekly overlay of XAU sector index vs XAU XAU XAG Here is the chart of Gold and Silver correlation - where price is floating around the 61.8%* Fibonacci retracement. The reason for using this chart is to fully understand the relationship of the undervalue of XAU XAG against the market sentiment. Inflation ETF Vs XAUXAG Here is the monthly chart with the overlay of the Pro Shares Trust Inflation Expectation. Below is the weekly chart - where 0% interest rates have been applied, since this moment repeating again since 1930's - this is a critical pattern piece of the market to understand. Attached is the Fred Federal Reserve balance sheet The monthly chart represents the S&P500, US02Y and the FRED/WALCL all together. Notice the cross patterns between 2008/09 and of course with the most recent Pandemic. A further detailed version of this is . GBP JPY is privatised Key SPX = Orange US02Y = Light blue WALCL = Dark Blue The returns of the US02Y correlation is negative against the SPX & FRED. Although the SPX is completing the Fibonacci extension - this is a cause for concern. This is a huge macro-economic shift and is now becoming concerning. For a further understanding, of QE and inflation measures - please do your research on said topics. To put things into perspective - the Repo market has now created an over supply of cash in the market which has essentially no where to go.. where, the increase of USD at 0% has been part of the asset purchase and drawdowns on the balance sheet causing a Reverse Repo situation. This has not been helped in the slightest by states, and other financial measures providing stimulus onto the end user . Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LupaCapital
3
EUR JPY - New Zone created for LongsHello traders and analysts Below is a good recap of an analysis which was conducted back in December 2020 . A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is the weekly Imbalances - where the Euro has provided a clean fractal point on the monthly imbalance back between 120.00 - 122.XX JPY. The Fibonacci sequence using a four day and daily chart showed the newly created imbalance was a pivot point at the 61.8 - 70.5% Fibonacci retrace zone. see for further charts. Imbalances have a high probability for a retest which aligns with the monthly ray, where price will look to revert to for filling the wicks upon the four day fractals. Here is the application of using the Fibonacci extension - where the low has been taken using the monthly imbalance zone where the 114.3X becomes the - The high (or zero) is 127.16X where price - falters and provides a correctional using the imbalance . Fibonacci Retracement Here is the evidence where price has corrected using the Fibonacci retracement which has aligned the 61.8% with a great imbalance - and a upper correctional imbalance on the 38.2% This is using the four day perspective as a probability to prove the longs/call are still in play from the monthly imbalance. Probable scenarios - using probability applied to the imbalances and chart data. A possible scenario - where looking left, indicates a low probability of a correctional path. Please note - the weekly imbalance, where price has now exited - the imbalance is now a structural pivot level - where price can close back to - with a lower time frame imbalance offering a close out from sellers to allow the Bulls to 'breathe'. Scenario 2; Here is the Daily trendline - which accounts for a safe option as a base case scenario. Like previously stated, where wicks are occurring, price can identify this as a reversion point to pick up buy orders - as this is where imbalances lay waiting. Price can now consolidate or make an upside move and tail off when required. Cross correlation Using the correlation table - and using the average of variable x - where EUR JPY is variable X vs the average of variable Y - where CHF JPY is variable Y Using data from the screenshot below - with the built in indicator of the correlation coefficient. Below is the real cross asset weekly timeframe comparing the probability of imbalances - where two safe havens (CHF JPY) both indicate a new break of imbalance. Watch the chart to see price move in our favour to the upside or sink? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
Long
by LupaCapital
1
AUD/CADPrice has created a new higher high on the daily and done a deep retracement (HL) into the area it's in right now. Looking for price to create another higher high and test of the last IC candle to the downside and target some of the equal highs and areas of imbalance If there is a strong immediate reaction from entry area, then will look into entering the trade. On the other hand, with the strength that price is coming down with, it could easily break the last lower low. So will be looking out to see if price has strong rejection from entry area, if so, a retest of that up candle would be the ideal entry.
Long
by manudimamdo
XAG USD - May update [Full breakdown]Hello analysts and traders, Please see the previous chart below for Silver. A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour See the original idea here: Monthly Here are the clear paths for silver, to provide clear indications of where price will drive from and to. The inefficiencies are clearly marked and have previously reacted at these points in the past. The buy zone - price had tested the low of 2009 - at a testing of the imbalance at $11.6XX, which falls inline with the three month chart view* With the initial first time imbalance providing a clear buying path - the opportunity here was to buy upon confirmation of the low rejection, by looking to the weekly for a confirm. The price was showing a high probability of inefficiency, allowing the price to pivot off the bottom of the wick. Three month view* The zones applied here are crucial to understand the monthly and weekly zones placed on top. Yes, the zone on the top is a huge wick - however, this had provided price to grow into the pivotal and vital zone where price has provisions to show an opportunity here for the zone to become a great opportunity to obtain a future outlook breaking said zone. What price can indicate at this moment - is a large gap for price to freely test. See the follow up chart ** ** Weekly the weekly imbalances have been marked - where; 1. the inefficient pricing imbalance from the low point of 2020 - which marked the test of the monthly zone, price had rejected and created a new formulated zone above, where price had created a great opportunity and highly probable long position . the relevance of this candle marked, is where price has reacted - whereby sellers are closing out positions as the price is creating long orders. The mid zone opportunity was based on the 2014 candle formation - where, price had begun to sell off upon a retest of the sell off from 2013 monthly imbalance. This acted as a swap zone - but created a testing of the structure for sell imbalances to look to add positions. The top imbalance is hiding within the monthly zone. Where price had rejected the monthly zone but needed to be retested. Price created a weekly low which allows the price to create the low. From here, allow a retest - which forms a formation lower high. Historical Fractal Here are two weekly fractal formations where price had created an imbalance opportunity. Price made a low which reaches the key level desired imbalance. Four day Here is the current four day imbalances applied to the chart - where price currently does not have an imbalance as yet - some would consider the $29.9 zone an imbalance but looking left - the next zone looks to be a high probability at $35.XX The current state of the market - will see price 'move' where the market determines the range - which is well established. Price during a bear market, will provide a high probability to keep price moving up to $35 range and beyond, but keep in mind the caveat of price falling first to shake out smaller buyers. 16 Hour time frame Here is the 16 hour time frame, where price has established the area of the imbalance at the top of the range. Price has reacted multiple times in this zone. Now price will be looking to test this area again for a third time. Once it has now - the imbalance will become a new additional zone to keep the long positions. Cross over assets Here is XAU XAG with the US10years as a cross over asset. The Yields have always been entrusted as a good indication from a macro-economic prospective. Using the weekly chart - price has established lows - which equate to a 'bottom out' . Price created a great monthly imbalance on the monthly chart* The low zone $45 - 30 - price moved to create a new high which is -0.618 as intended using the Fibonacci extension tool. Using Fibonacci - the 61.8% shows that price is at a strong level to react and pivot to push towards the all time high - but extend further. ** Adding the Vix (volatility index) on the weekly timeframe. Price has has shown the yield correlation between the VIX and Yields. Using the XAG chart vs the gold and silver sector index - this is for correlation purposes. . XAU VS DXY DXY is showing a weakening further of the US dollar , but has touched upon a critical imbalance as previously analysed, comparing the imbalance upon XAU in correlation to the SPX, XAU has created an imbalance between $1670- 1730 on the monthly rejection. This imbalance here can be retested as the SPX moves towards completing the Fibonacci extension sequence and forms its new imbalance upon a monthly time frame. DXY is critical here as it forms a strong outlook in terms of the cross correlation of other assets (shown above) to give an indication of taking the risk in account that the identified imbalance is an area of interest to monitor moves for SPX and XAU alike in respective of awaiting the next action. Applying Fibonacci to prove the price extension target lines with the imbalance on the four day, and weekly. Inflation - simplified: Types of inflation Cost-push inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by a rise in the cost of production, such as higher oil prices Demand-pull inflation – when a rise in prices is caused by rising aggregate demand and firms pushing up prices due to the shortage of goods The most likely scenario will be a cost push inflation scenario Rising wages If trades unions can present a united front then they can bargain for higher wages. Rising wages are a key cause of cost-push inflation because wages are the most significant cost for many firms. (higher wages may also contribute to rising demand) Import prices Using the UK as an example, where 1/3rd of all goods are imported in the UK. If there is a devaluation, then import prices will become more expensive leading to an increase in inflation. A devaluation/depreciation means the Pound is worth less to the EUR GBP, GBP USD, GBP AUD etc. Therefore the payment is more to buy the same imported goods as before, where these prices are pushed on to the consumer to keep profits, the same. Where are we with the inflation outlook? Currently it is uncertain, but applying using the charts above where the VIX has been supressed but should not be ignored — plus the economy has never reopened from a pandemic before — and because the way the government approaches economic policy has shifted over the past year - where the FED (US) have adopted an approach of printing and keeping rates at very low rates to obtain and justify continuing a huge bond-buying program that the Fed began at the start of the pandemic downturn. Those policies make money cheap to borrow, ultimately bolstering demand for goods and services and helping prices to rise. Keep in mind, the federal government has drastically loosened its purse strings, spending trillions of dollars to pull the economy out of the pandemic recession. Both the fiscal and the monetary response are meant to keep households economically whole through a challenging period, so there was also a risk to having less-ambitious policies. Watch the chart to see price move in our favour to the upside or sink? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by LupaCapital
2
BTC using probabilityHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast quick analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. See previous analysis here : Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is an explanation of the imbalance/inefficiency zones based upon the original analysis view. 1. Zone 1: The daily zone is where price will be looking at a test of the order block based on how the mark flows between imbalances to create the range. The current week has seen a sharp outflow of movement away to keep shorts flowing to keep the imbalance moving towards the zone of $42,000. This redistribution of wealth is the transfer from impatient to patient buyers, liquidity to show bears opportunities to 'shake' Bitcoin wallets out to create a new engineered low. 2. Exactly the same development but making further lows to around $37,000 - $39,000. This zone will be a 'full retrace' upon a daily Fibonacci standpoint, however this is where the imbalance lies. 3. The true imbalance remains at $28,000 . - see BTC VS yields for this information. Monthly Imbalances Below are the monthly imbalances, where price has now created a monthly imbalance using the close of the high. Price has created a nice area which has broken down to the weekly imbalance zone . The main structure here is dependant of the pivot points upon the price closing in the zone where BTC can retest the monthly highs, creating a lower high. The probability of these occur where price breaks using the Fibonacci rules as a second strategy. Here is the probable paths where price can show Fibonacci rules are still in formation on the weekly chart: The structure is in a corrective phase here where the imbalance created will now offer an opportunity for buyers to look at the fractal zones where imbalance wicks align nicely at 61.8%. If looking to buy, confirm the buy is active with confirmation. 16 hour chart Here is the 16hour imbalances which breakdown the imbalances to show in a smaller trading session - this timeframe removes further noise and solidifies the inefficient imbalance of the supply and demand strategy. The 16hour here shows the 40k is a great area where the price has a high probability of becoming a rejection fractal. This zone here is a completion of a higher time frame fractal. Combined with the Daily imbalance Using the Fibonacci tool - the daily level shows us the 50% and the 61.8% retracement zones. Looking at the 16 hour, the zones align. The corrective process here shows a good opportunity for buying opportunities to the patient. BTC VS VIX The Volatility index is always an interesting measure, where the Vix Screenshot below to show the monthly relationship of the price closing. The volume profile added to the Vix shows here where; orange = value area up Blue = value area down *showing the buyers, sellers upon the imbalance of the newly all time high. As described on the chart - the key zone here is the correction which aligns on the 2 week imbalance rectangle where price can revert to to provide a key positional move upwards to continue the buyers imbalance. US Treasury volatility - not to be ignored by Crypto: Using Yields and the Volatility index to provide further evidence. Be aware of the Yields of the US05 - US20 Year, this can impact the indexes also which will impact the imbalances of Crypto currencies. BTC vs ETH: Notice the imbalance pattern? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by LupaCapital
6
USDJPY SETUPUSDJPY 15M Interesting setup on both sides, whichever that pends out first. Prices tapped onto a H4 demand zone, propelling a buy-side move into a H4 supply zone, which made a sell-side move as well. We will be looking to trade the immediate moves on the lower timeframe if the setup is still valid for us to monitor later on. Understanding how prices break structures, leaving behind unmitigated areas for us to catch an entry towards a specific target is important in intermediary movements like this. If you're unsure, skip this trade.
by SharkAcademy
XAU/USDIt's been a few hours since the NFP release, which pushed price up over 250 pips within one hour. Looking like price might have been pushed there for the institutions to mitigate out their previous buy positions. If that's the case, looking for price to drop from where it is now for at least 150 pips, and could potentially come down a lot lower to take out the equal lows sitting further below. On the other hand, price is still extremely bullish and could easily take out stoploss very quickly targeting the equal highs above, so will use good risk to reward and see how the market unfolds.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by manudimamdo
9
NZD JPY Imbalance awaits. Hello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged short, due to the long term structure offering a reactional level upon the imbalance. Price is still creating higher highs and completing the sequence to create a "fresh level" but in actual fact this is an imbalance. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Previous update - Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour NZD JPY Monthly imbalances Using the monthly time frame, it is clear to identify the buying imbalance and selling imbalance here. At this moment in time, there is no opportunity to sell as price has not yet reacted to the zones in place. The monthly wicks also highlight a great opportunity where the imbalance is strongest within the wick zones around 81.30- 84 JPY established. While this zone is a large trading gap - the best imbalances for price levels to work from here is on the weekly, daily. Second to this, the monthly test occurring back in March 2020 created an imbalance low, whereby the yen was showing strength from a fundamental perspective of the safe haven. The low of 59.3 NZD to JPY was a structural low point where price indicated two key criteria; 1. Informing to positional buyers that the sellers have taken over the daily and weekly imbalance to create correctional move. 2. The key zone here is price hitting a monthly imbalance block at the structural low using the three month chart* what is evident here? The imbalance perfectly aligns here as price touches the price close on the three month as assigned on the far left with the green arrow. The second fill which occurred January 2020, touched the same zone between 59.30-59.50 NZD JPY. Price had to reverse from here, this is how the imbalance fill works where price perfectly reacts of a pivot point. Three month chart* Monthly chart Weekly imbalance plan From a weekly perspective, there has been a great opportunity to buy in for the positional buyers and within the 68.00 - 69.80 zone. There reason for this zones important is due to two reasons; 1. Price aligns with the weekly low referring to June 2016 imbalance sell rejection. 2. When forming a rally, base rally, or in a market shift 'poising' for a bullish continued market structure, the crucial aspect here is to understand the trading range on the daily and weekly timeframe where the maximum to the pip top of the range identifies with the 71.96-72.00. The significance of this here is purely the closing out of the fractal pattern completing the cycle . Screenshot two - Fractal completion. This shows the clear pattern that price will be 'broken' to create a new high here. I. The low has been confirmed by the previous weekly touch of the candle wick high. - this nets off. II. The body low has been netted by the wick high. Fibonacci pathway Using the daily timeframe, the application of the Fibonacci can be used here to plot next moves for entry areas in conjunction with the higher time frame to use the price path to reach the desired targets. Using the imbalance and Fibonacci tool also assists with trade management in terms of open interest fee's and furthermore exposure in short term trend shifts. The outcome from the Fibonacci extension tool. This has been used for demonstration purposes for the analysis, however the technique in place here is how the top down analysis is predicted and executed. Daily imbalance levels The levels are clearly identified, using the main criteria from the monthly and weekly imbalances. The levels on the daily take time to develop. Plot and assess upon price volatility and also the probability of the trade shifting direction , or in some cases, long term - dependant of the imbalance cycle* Understanding the cross pairs and correlation between commodity pairs The first chart shows the weekly and monthly using the commodity pairs: AUD JPY & CAD JPY in conjunction with NZD JPY. The pattern of the correlation is clear - these pairs are heading towards imbalances. The second chart provides key data for the weekly and monthly using the major pair currencies* GBP JPY is considered a minor pair - but with the correlation of XAU and commodity pairs the GBP also is a major pair so in this case with considered, it is analysed for the performance. Using the cross asset of NZD JPY vs XAU USD, while cross referencing VIX and US 10 year yields. The basis behind this, is to use the risk based approach of the NZD being a commodity currency where a produce of Gold and the correlation between the strength of the NZD and XAU in a 'risk on' approach. Particularly for the NZD using the imbalances as reference points. The use of variable instruments of the VIX and 10 year US yields are due to the 'risk off' scenario plan. Note; I VIX and 10 year - spikes in session Fundamental decisions do not necessarily result in a 'jolt' in the price on every occasion. This opens the door to a strong positional buying opportunity and openness to credit risk take on. II. The capitulation waters here on the economic cycle is ever present where buyers and sellers in the short term are profit taking and engineering liquidity from the transfer from the impatient to patient traders. Volume profile: Here is an important level at the monthly and weekly imbalance. Notice the sell volume taking over . Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Short
by LupaCapital
2
US OIL - Weekly imbalance still activeHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. A bullish scenario is needed, as well as a bearish , this is a game of patience. For further charts - refer to the previous analysis with cross asset screenshots Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Monthly Imbalances Price has currently filled a monthly imbalance, with a new fresh imbalance zone awaiting price action to occur. The probabilities are strong here for price to enter into this zone, purely based on the candle wick which has been confirmed from February 2021. The wick on the lower time frames has provided evidence of this reaching a fractal point at $59.20 per barrel. . Price had created an engineered low, for the shakeout of the sellers who are looking for sells of the fresh "high". Note, on the daily, the trend line is well respected with the three soldier candle pattern 'identified as a sell off", however, this is a perfect opportunity to add a long. The monthly imbalance - is still showing the respective low as explained above. The price of oil has continued to show it's strength reaching the next liquidity wick fill at $66.34-54. Now, the next important imbalance zone is yet to be breached and tested. Price can now create a fresh test of the monthly chart, applying as to what the structure on the monthly is showing is, the price can have a high probability of moving back to $60.00 - $62 zone to create a solid rally base rally formation setup. s3.tradingview.com Weekly Imbalances applied: Bearish Weekly Scenario: Where price is now entering a fresh imbalance - this is a great opportunity to close out long positions which have been held in a shorter run up or simply close out profits to de-risk and transfer the risk by offsetting shorts. Why? - Simply put, fresh zone is a clear opportunity for the imbalance to occur. The imbalance will be closed out and the market structure will offer a new opportunity. Price can dramatically collapse again with a strong supply, however where price is still showing "long". Oil can be sold off to weekly imbalances or in a worst case scenario to the below Blue, monthly imbalance. Weekly Imbalances - still active zones. The Weekly imbalance provides a good indicator her where price can create a weekly supply or sellers imbalance as the zone is a fresh touch. The probability of price retracing from the newly created high, is a strong possibility. However, as there is a zone higher, Oil can still use this imbalance as a base, to create strong price action floating within a range of $67-60 per Barrel. Look into the smaller time frames for pivot points assessing the risk of entering a trade. s3.tradingview.com Eight hour Fibonacci, imbalance Below are the eight hour imbalances, where a great structure has taken place to provide an opportunity for the base to built upon. The imbalance here will attract the short sellers and scalpers and hedged sellers to cover longs. However the 50% retrace zone aligns perfectly to a strong indicator of where Fibonacci lines mock up a solid alert to monitor the minor inefficiency taking place here. however be aware for the weekly zone below this is only a short term hedge for buys to capture both sides of the trade. Price will have a high probability to fall towards $58-59 per barrel. Daily imbalance - for a simplified view Again the imbalance of the monthly aligns with the daily low, so take into account here a inflow opportunity for the building up of a buying imbalance at around $59-60. XX then initiate a buy order. Understanding the context behind Oil with the "disastrous" negative price of the Oil futures crash. 2020-2021. We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00 Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage. This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed. See the charts here - Understanding the Fundamentals behind the Supply, Demand & Future Supply through inflation of cause and effect. Oil prices and levels of inflation are often seen as being connected in a cause-and-effect relationship. Simply put with oil current at $66.00 per barrel, as oil prices move up, inflation—which is the measure of general price trends throughout the economy—follows in the same direction resulting in a higher overall price. Keep in mind, as the price of oil falls, inflationary pressures start to ease. Producer Price Index This is a measurement of the rate of change in prices of said commodity , where the change in prices of the products sold is measured by the producer. The exclusion of Tax, trade margins and transport cost which are all variables a buyer of a physical will have to burden. The PPI is a average movement of price, which are subsequently tracked by the economic indicators dealing with the price fluctuations end users have to pay at the end of the supply line. Below is the inflation ETF vs Oil - providing some crucial cause and effect over the future supply of Oil and where price is overall moving towards, again use inefficiency in the market. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
TVC:USOILLong
by LupaCapital
18
XAU/USDGold that has been creating lower highs and lower lows on the daily, has retraced to a LH and bounced strongly off the last recent institutional candle. Looking for gold to continue its way to the downside, reaching the target areas below. Looking for it to make a new lower low taking out the liquidity below, also filling out some areas of imbalance. Two potential entry areas price may reject from for a SELL trade at 1790.80 and 1793.65 (0.786 and 0.88 on the fib). Low risk, high reward trade setup. There's also great potential the trade can break past the stoploss area as there are target areas there too that price may want to come to. If that happens, will then look for potential trade setup in that area.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by manudimamdo
1
XRP - Daily positional updateHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged long, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Update to original here: Previous tracking here: ** Price has rejected the Imbalance at $1.49 and successfully filled the candle wick - up we go! ** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Scarlet - Four day Orange = Daily Magenta = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Below is the outlined top down analysis for the XRP update. Please read and understand the imbalances and take into account the possible zones for new buys, sells, keeping in mind the imbalance in play - currently - long/bullish. Monthly imbalances: The three identified zones are in place here to provide the key areas for where price will look to consolidate before the continuation pattern completes. Price has now broken through the monthly zone . The price will now look to tail off to fall back between $1.21 - 0.84. The price here has been creating higher high with the closes on the monthly candle. The information here price has been informing imbalance buyers is that the big opportunity here is clear to gear up for a buying imbalance. The weekly imbalances The weekly zones are outlined and sit above the monthly, as these act as reversion points for the buying and selling imbalances. The very strong imbalance between $0.26-0.24 shows the great opportunity for longs only, it was just a case of buying in, and when price reverted back to test the low as these newly established trading ranges offer. A clear opportunity to add is recognised here - *subject to higher timeframe whereby closes are filling the wicks and rejecting the monthly. Putting the four day and weekly chart together with reference to the price finding an inefficiency on the weekly time frame - the pattern formed showed strong wicks and reversals occurring as price action takes affect. The inefficiencies here are tested but the sellers are now removed and buying imbalances are in place. There has been great opportunities to short from the weekly imbalance to maximise potential upon hedging or purely aggressively selling from +$0.60 zone as the weekly pattern completed. Conversely, this is short lived as the fresh zone is always retested with XRP as the higher weekly lows show a steady formation. Two key criteria to follow here: I Price has placed a key weekly whipsaw effect from the initial formation of the price inefficiency. II The consequence of this pair being the most liquid is testing the previous imbalance upon the motion of a risk scenario where price becomes a controlled shift of price inefficiency. The monthly reference here shows four candles of interest whereby consecutive months have resulted in large wicks where price has created the imbalance required. Cross asset analysis: Using the weekly time frame, XRP is lagging behind the two correlated pairs - however is offering large scope for new zones for smaller imbalances. OMGNetwork - Black Tezos - Green These two coins move with a very strong positive correlation - whereby price Fibonacci retracement tool - zone alignments The two outlined zones are clear indicators of where shorts will be good areas to take profits if you so wish. And also additional buy points. Price will need to close in the desired zone and infill the imbalance upon the four day, weekly timeframe* use these as references. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
BITSTAMP:XRPUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
WINUSDT 5th wave upHello traders. My wave counter is indicating the start of the 5th wave break out on the 4hr. The yellow line is the quickest and is for individual/sub-waves counts, the green line is for each completed 1,2,3,4,5, the red line shows the whole structure. The yellow line will show when to exit and when to place buy/sell orders etc. We had a short two-wave correction which has created a longer 4th wave correction. Price briefly created a double bottom, broke the line captured some liquidity, and has moved up. Target is an unchecked price imbalance, which I call a naked imbalance. I'm suggesting the price will return to that point and collect trapped longs. The two-period RSI is above 60 and is in the buy zone. Targets on the chart and as always good luck!
Long
by Avery_Upton
6