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Imbalance

EURUSD 4 hour breakdownEURUSD 4 hour expectational order flow still intact and still bearish. I did think price was going to grab the liquidity at 1.6200 before tuesday/wedensday bearish impulse, but its a good lesson of just because you know where the liquidity is, it doesn't mean you know when the market is going to take it. But yes we reacted to the 4 hour order block and broke structure nicely leaving some imbalanced price. we are now sat at an daily order block which we could see a reaction from taking price back into discount market. again the new 4 hour structure and order block at 1.5900 will be vital in holding structure. probably won't try and trade Monday and just let price develop and see if we are going to continue straight bearish or retrace into the range. let the market make its mind up and follow the money
by AarronWoods
NZDJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 78% short on NZDJPY, making me bullish. On the 1D, higher highs and higher lows have been made, giving me no reason to go bearish. There's also divergence between price and Cumulative Delta Volume (CDV). CDV has trended up short term, while price had trended down. Suggesting a weak sell. Price has seemed to find support right around 80.00, a nice whole number price. However, right below price is a large 4h imbalance inside of a 1D imbalance, where 50% of each imbalance lies right around 79.50, a nice half level. This area is also around the 50% retracement of the recent bull run if you apply a fib. My TP1 is the 4h imbalance that hasn't been filled, which is right around 81.5, another half level. Since this imbalance didn't break the previous short term market structure, I think price is likely to surpass this imbalance. Hence, my TP2 is targeting last month's highs at 82.5, another half level. A triple top formed right below last month's highs, providing liquidity for price to go to last month's highs, making it a likely target in my opinion.
Long
by NotFrank247
CADJPY Long Entry IdeaPer myfxbook, retail is 68% short on CADJPY, making me short to mid term bullish. There are also more short term inefficiencies in CADJPY to the long side than the short side. Price has formed support right above the 50% mark of a 1D bullish imbalance, making me even more bullish. Looking for entry at the 50% mark of the 1D, and an ultimate TP at a major 1h imbalance. Plenty of places to trim along the way. Notice how the orderblocks and imbalances I marked up either start at, or have 50% levels around whole 25 pip values (quarters theory)
Long
by NotFrank247
6
Shiba Inu - Daily ray rejectionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more crypto and through the analysis links which provide explanation's for further resources. Also to add - regarding the simplified method of the Shib Burning model, a full detailed model will be available - please contact me for further information.** Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Review the full analysis below; Monthly Imbalance Thus far there is not an abundance of Data provided from brokers and platforms - further imbalances will become clearer, however with data analysed - price had immediately sold off upon listing. Creating an immediate low of 0.0000569. The identifiable formation is a cup and handle which can be more visible on the weekly and four day chart. However with an introduction of further establishment of the traction from fundamental plays where new listings occur price can adopt an established consolidation. So new entrants to the market who began immediate price action on the monthly basis begin an immediate change of hands adding buyers to a selling market from the inception. This has now created a trading rang on the following four months listed whereby 0.0000471 is the established low point forming the monthly imbalance as well as the upper range of the imbalance reaching 0.00000979. The weekly Imbalance The reason here for the half candle imbalance is provided for two reasons; 1. Being the Formation of the 50% low Fibonacci from the peak 1.00 at the introduction of Shiba Inu to the market. 2. The second reason for the 50% candle imbalance - is due to the upper 50% quartile using probability for price to retest the body of the candle for buying targets. Price did change hands from a selling market by creating three consecutive higher lows on the weekly timeframe, offering a >50% probability for buying power and long positions to be taken. Again using a fundamental backing with further adoption of users and further development of the project to become a useable token, the development through to the usage of Leash and Bone. - revert below to what is Leash & Bone. 8 Hour formation; There is a combination whereby the grey bottom correctional channel line is a 4hour line, but this as provided by the screenshot shows a clear 8hour view also encompasses the correctional channel. The channel has offered price action to move towards the upper channel boundary which will now play an important break and retest or rejection for longs as the imbalance has now formed upon the 50% high probability of a rejection of the pivot zone. Daily talk points The daily ray is intact with 3 zones of a trend rejection showing the longs are in positional play The daily close out of the correction shows that the 50% and 0.000047X is a strong psychological value which rests upon a daily and weekly imbalance zone. The lower highs being created from the wicks by looking left have offered shorts to be closed out and retested with sellers unable to provide lower lows in the market. This is a sign the trend is reversing for you support and resistance traders. Please be aware that while analysing ETH, BTC, XRP, ADA - the reversion imbalances have often tested 70.5% so expect a pullback to the weekly zone as shown below. To see further studies of this - review my other analysis'. What the top formation correction would offer at a high probable scenario The chart speaks for itself as to what occurred. Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
FTX:SHIBUSDLong
by LupaCapital
1
Wall Street - Surpasses another extensionHello Traders and Analysts, A Note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon our trading strategy. This is tagged Neutral for the short term. Long term, bullish, due to purchasing further increments upon imbalances. Please do not take this as face value and conduct the relevant investment strategy to successfully trade the probabilities. Note: To see more information - review the linked ideas for more reading upon the suppressed VIX and S&P500. The addition of the overlay of the SPX does not provide a clear 100% correlation as the top 30 companies in the US and the SPX comparison does not 100% move in parity despite both being within the same country. There are differences where sectors perform worse in Health care, energy, consumer goods, automotive as opposed to the 30 individuals who can out perform. Fibonacci extension - using the inverse method, I'm aware I use the inverse extension tool but this methodology aligns with pivot points and price reacts clearly upon this method. Idea tracking at the bottom is in progress - not much data is compiled, but will be added as we go, but for full scope, the charts are available to keep up to date for those who do not follow multi-assets. Master Key for zones Blue = Monthly Purple = weekly Red = 4 Days Yellow = 16 Hours Orange = Daily Dark Green = 8 Hour Grey = 4hour Pink = 1 hour Risk Warning Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence. Firstly why has the SPX and US30 become so bullish? Simply put, as the FED Funds have been slashed - and with yields being key to movements of both institutional and retail - credit deposits provide a little return so if the trend is up and to the right, then a standard metric is sure, keep on investing regardless of the high value. This keeps the Shiller ratio and price earnings ratio are seen as "this seems fine" (to view the website to review these metrics, click the link below) - www.multpl.com . To further understand this, the use of the cross-asset comparison shows a simplistic view but also a reality. US yields Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and Yields shows an opportunity where imbalances have established for longs where the dollar will show some strength. Why the Stock market didn't crash was due to the FED, with the correction to the 50-61.8% Fibonacci zone, this was due to the movement of money in outflows changing hands to new influx of buyers - the need for liquidity is everything. In a generalistic term - buying bonds from institutions and buy backs are generating cash, where will this be placed? Not into CDs as the yield is cut based on the cash generation. The feedback loop allows the movement of cash is within the Stock market hence the indices movement towards the overextension targets. The representation of said loop cycle is visualised below. Monthly Imbalance Looking back on the monthly chart - select areas have been found for longs, additional longs and further longs as the market refused to dead cat bounce during the pandemic resurgence. The monthly ray has been used to plot the higher lows which have failed to close outside the ray. Even though price did break the ray - it actually reverted to a pivot point which will be shown in the following chart image . The monthly low formation aligned and created an equal low - which matches a three consecutive which occurred Aug, Sept, Oct 2016. Monthly US30 FIBO chart* The Fibonacci had shown a deep correction which pivoted to continue the uptrend - but at the same time triggered a large change of hands back in February 2020. Whilst this happened, it did discount the market heavily through to the 0.786% Fibonacci, but the important factor is where it aligned upon the three consecutive bearish candles. Now refer to the QTR chart The quarterly chart is clean just removes all noise and provides clear information of the uptrend from creating imbalances along the way to revert from. The net closing out from buyers exhaustion to a selling change of hands offered a close out from a correction to rest on the new imbalance to add a new position upon or longer term investors who use funds or hedge FX, this would indicate profit taking on a selling imbalance. Please note - the current Sequence may not reach the full extension or may, but a sell imbalance has yet to be clearly identified, but what is beginning to show on the monthly and weekly timeframe has provided a clear opportunity to create at least a correction impending as the weekly channel has become steep and is showing a tail off as a wedge would normally suggest. Weekly Imbalances The overall trend is your friend, clearly shows a multiple buying opportunities to keep pivot points on the Fibonacci extension pattern to completed the overextended pattern. The newly formed which has rested upon the -0.27% Fibonacci has indicated the pivot level has withstood (refer to white box) where three valid wicks have provided a key upper zone to remove early sellers. The two key purple zones fit perfectly at both the "0" Fibonacci full retracement to the previous market structure high and also before this, the 0.236% . SPX Chart Refer to link below. Here is the weekly chart for the SPX500 - which shows the extension target -0.618 or 4,465 points, price has reacted in favour of an extended bullish move where price corrected on a five week consolidation phase before securing a "resistance turned support" but in reality the overextended market phase had not yet completed, so the probability was in favour of longs. The Daily chart Note: this is only valid on a bearish scenario where the -0.618 or 1.1618 Extension is no longer clear of buying pressure and looks to correct. Invalid if data is bullish towards continued growth of the Index. The daily has provided a great build up on creating higher highs to test the rising channel with three consistent tops within the white boxes, but only twice tested the channel bottom, which has provided two major lower high formations. With a possible third forecasted on the chart - this will indicate a sell off whereby price can pivot from as it has now created an all time high. The probability of pivot levels may not occur with a change of hands in the short term, but a correctional in accordance with other major pivot levels have all provided a consolidation zone to allow an imbalance to form, so using the historic data, price >50% probability will look to 36055* est as a reference pivot. What can the chart also indicate that buyers were still in control? Within the inner channel construct lays a rising wedge, but this only took price to form a short term correction for buyers on the four day as well as the two chart to pick up a discounted long addition and . Note - the red lines which identify the four day channel align with the one day channel, but remove noise of lower timeframe candles. [ Reference four day ]** The four day chart shows a clearer image of showing where the wicks show the same highs as does the two day which follow the same pattern but again remove consolidation phases and simple show a larger candle in a bearish or bullish candlestick - where the wick forms a shorter wick or none - as per candlestick analysis, this indicates that the movement can provide a change of hands. Reference Two day VIX (Volatility Index) please keep in mind that the VIX has correlation, causation is caused from the associated short term risk of the sentiment change within profit taking, impending policy changes, health warnings, war and other macro-factors. There are multiple talking points here which are noticeable. The corrective channel is ever present upon the weekly and two day whereby the channel has created opportunities for longs in a bearish scenario but has been rejected upon numerous occasions. The VIX has been leaving multiple wicks above the 10.00 zone and is drifting currently between 14 lows to 28 highs which relate back to the 15th September. See the full chart to track here; VIX VS SPX Inverse correlation at its finest - but not causation? or is it? Read the US Yields - this can indicate why the corrective state of play is not present as yet. Cross-asset comparison; Looking to the DXY, US05-US02Y short term yields, look towards the critical levels here where DXY and USDJPY shows an opportunity where imbalances have established. To see a tracking of the full chart on the weekly timeframe - this is possible to view as part of a full analysis scope. Quantitative easing (QE) is where the increasing the money supply of the system, where the Central Bank creates new money and uses the money to make asset purchases. These asset purchases inject the new money into the system. (QE) tapering will be seen on interest rates. The impact is almost immediate - affecting the sentiment. (QE) can be used where interest is at zero %, as the central bank(s) want to introduce more stimulus. Conversely - when easing occurs, adoption of a new introduction is will send the interest rates shooting, the money to those who can offer the highest interest rates and this competition will send the interest rates skyrocketing. This directly affects the Equity market and the FX safe-haven pairs immediately. Employment In relation to employment is closely linked to that state of inflation or deflation in the economy. When there is excess money in the economy, the confidence is upbeat and CPI aligns with goods production resulting in people getting employed in the economy or in this case - returning to the original job before the pandemic. Therefore quantitative easing (QE) is positively correlated to a higher employment level* subject to NFP "True" figure of new jobs created, not in the aspect of 'Return to work'. See the article snippet below affecting the US Market. "On Labor Day, COVID-era expanded unemployment benefit programs expired. Those temporary programs included the $300 weekly bonus checks as well as coverage for those who are normally ineligible for unemployment insurance, like gig workers and the long-term unemployed. More than 11 million people were impacted by the cutoff, and roughly 7.5 million people lost their benefits entirely". - Source CNET.com/personal-finance/your/money Inflation or Deflation? inflation is likely to turn into deflation through (QE) where tapering pulls money out of the system, where less money (as compared to before) chasing the goods available, making every good less expensive. Great for consumers?! Keep aware of a bullish weekly formation that the channel never stops to corrects, based on the vicious cycle of printing the Trillion dollar coin and also ever moving the debt ceiling., plus the cycle of money being put back in the market on repeat. We all win Bearish the cycle completes and the fun stops in order to reset at a pivot point to continue growth. Not an advocate, but it seems the right thing to do. Everything must come down right at some point? Do you enjoy the setups? Professional analyst with 5+ years experience Focus on technical output not fundamentals Position and swing trades Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress. If you like the idea, please leave a like or comment. To all the followers, thank you for your continued support. Thanks, LVPA MMXXI
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by LupaCapital
2