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XAUUSD Analysis was great, execution was not .. heres why Good evening gold gang!! another lovely bit of short term analysis playing out with a little twist ... price broke structure in asian as expected before shooting up in london pre ny! This had us fooled as it looked like it was coming up but it was actually tapping the zone from yesterday before dropping all the way through in the intended position. The sells i had eyed up from the top .. but they were outside of my trading hours pre NY so i followed my rules and didnt take them The current area were in now is dangerous as its sandwiched between 2 HTF zones and we need a break out. Price is respecting the current trend being bullish .. but its very close on its 4th touch of the trend! so it could collapse in asia. Lets wait for a clear break of the zone before entering catch me in the DMS if you have questions ... its nice to be back posting on here after so long and reconnecting with you all! have a great rest of your day big T
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
3
XAUUSD 2 options for tomorrow, lets discuss Good evening gold gang! a great day today catching 2 buy positions as planned last night. Well done to those who got in. Price is still making bullish structure so i need to see a break of this and retest before selling currently. Buyers be aware we have a solid section of price at 2338 that will create a reaction .. ideally id like this cleared by london. Scalp sells can be available there but will need confirmation. Geopolitical news of war etc is still bullish for gold and im expecting it to continue to rise as long as the HTF remains in trend. the trend is your friend until the end as they say have a great rest of your day and ill catch you in london Tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
3
Trade Like A Sniper - Episode 51 - JPYTHB - (25th June 2024)This video is part of a video series where I backtest a specific asset using the TradingView Replay function, and perform a top-down analysis using ICT's Concepts in order to frame ONE high-probability setup. I choose a random point of time to replay, and begin to work my way down the timeframes. Trading like a sniper is not about entries with no drawdown. It is about careful planning, discipline, and taking your shot at the right time in the best of conditions. A couple of things to note: - I cannot see news events. - I cannot change timeframes without affecting my bias due to higher-timeframe candles revealing its entire range. - I cannot go to a very low timeframe due to the limit in amount of replayed candlesticks In this session I will be analyzing JPYTHB, starting from the 2-Month chart. If you want to learn more, check out my profile.
Education
by Road_2_Funded
USDJPY: Bullish Outlook USD/JPY Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: USD/JPY trades around 159.70 on Monday, maintaining a bullish bias. The pair is testing the upper boundary of an ascending channel pattern on the daily chart. Japanese Yen Stability: The Japanese Yen (JPY) holds its ground, likely due to verbal intervention by Japanese authorities. Masato Kanda, Japan's top currency diplomat, stated his readiness to intervene around the clock if necessary to prevent excessive movements in the forex market. 2. Technical Analysis Bullish Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 level, indicating upward momentum. Surpassing the upper threshold of the ascending channel pattern will reinforce the bullish sentiment, potentially pushing the pair toward 160.32, a major resistance level last seen in April, marking the highest level in over thirty years. Support Levels: Immediate support is at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 158.42. A breach below this level could increase downward pressure on USD/JPY, targeting the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 155.60. Further support is at the throwback level of 152.80, which could be tested if the lower boundary is broken. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has edged lower due to a decline in yields on US Treasury bonds. However, the downside for the USD may be limited as higher-than-expected US PMI data has delayed expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is now priced at 65.9%, down from 70.2% a week earlier. Yield Differentials: Despite lower US Treasury yields, USD/JPY remains near 160, driven by the large yield differentials. Value investors are deterred by carry traders, suggesting that significant rate cuts by the Fed might be necessary to change this dynamic. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) faces a prolonged period of economic challenges, potentially extending through the summer and autumn. 4. Market Sentiment Verbal Intervention: The Japanese authorities, particularly Masato Kanda, have emphasized their readiness to intervene to prevent excessive volatility in the forex market. This stance provides some support to the JPY. Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Speculation around the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts has a significant impact on USD/JPY. Delays in rate cuts support the USD, contributing to the pair's current bullish momentum. Conclusion USD/JPY is trading around 159.70 with a bullish outlook, reinforced by technical indicators and the current yield differential environment. Immediate resistance is at 160.32, while support is found at 158.42 and lower at 155.60. The pair's performance is influenced by verbal interventions from Japanese authorities and ongoing speculation regarding the Fed's interest rate policy. Market participants will continue to monitor these factors for further direction.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish OutlookGBP/USD Analysis 1. Recent Performance Current Trend: GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2650 in the second half of Monday. Following a strong performance due to upbeat PMI data on Friday, the US Dollar has weakened amid a positive shift in risk sentiment, allowing GBP/USD to extend its rebound. Previous Movements: GBP/USD fell below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2640 on Friday but closed the week above this level, indicating sellers' hesitancy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has recovered toward 50. 2. Technical Analysis Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.2700 (200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart). Additional resistance is found at 1.2720-1.2730 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend, 100-period SMA) and 1.2800 (psychological level, static level). Support Levels: If GBP/USD falls below 1.2640 and uses it as resistance, the next bearish targets are 1.2600 (psychological level, static level) and 1.2580 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). Market Indicators: Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD touched its weakest level since mid-May near 1.2620 on Friday. Despite ending the week in negative territory, GBP/USD stages a correction and trades above 1.2650 on Monday. 3. Fundamental Context US Dollar Dynamics: The USD gained strength heading into the weekend after the preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMI for June showed robust expansion in the US private sector. Early Monday, the USD stays under modest bearish pressure amid an improving risk mood, helping GBP/USD hold its ground. Upcoming Data: The US economic docket will feature the Chicago Fed National Activity Index and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index. These are unlikely to trigger significant market reactions, with investors likely remaining focused on risk perception. Market Sentiment: Mixed actions in Wall Street, with Dow Futures up 0.3% and Nasdaq Futures down 0.1%, could make it difficult for GBP/USD to continue stretching higher. 4. Pound Sterling Performance Current Position: The Pound Sterling gains ground against the US Dollar, trading around 1.2650 in early New York session on Monday, rebounding from last week’s sharp sell-off. The upside move in the US Dollar Index (DXY) has paused and struggles to extend above the immediate resistance of 106.00. Economic Indicators: The near-term outlook for the USD has strengthened after the S&P Global PMI report showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing and service sectors, with the Composite PMI jumping to 51.7. Despite the improved PMI figures, inflation concerns have eased, aligning with the Fed's 2% inflation target. 5. Bank of England and Market Expectations Interest Rate Outlook: Market speculation for the Bank of England (BoE) to begin lowering its key borrowing rates in August has increased after a dovish monetary policy statement. The BoE’s decision to hold interest rates at 5.25% was “finely balanced,” signaling potential rate cuts. Annual headline inflation has returned to the desired rate of 2%, but officials remain cautious about persistent service inflation, which decelerated to 5.7% in May. UK Economic Outlook: The UK’s economic outlook faces uncertainty after the preliminary S&P Global/CIPS PMI report showed unexpected slowing in the service sector, though the Manufacturing PMI expanded faster than expected. The slowdown reflects business environment uncertainty ahead of the general election, causing a hiatus in decision-making. Conclusion The GBP/USD pair is currently trading above 1.2650, showing signs of recovery amid a weakened US Dollar and positive risk sentiment. Technically, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.2700 and has support at 1.2640 and below. Fundamentally, the outlook is influenced by US PMI data and BoE's interest rate expectations. The market will continue to monitor risk sentiment and upcoming economic indicators for further direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Recovery: Navigating Key Resistance Amid Mixed SignalsEUR/USD Analysis 1. Recent Trend Recovery Trend: EUR/USD is showing a recovery momentum, approaching 1.0750 after closing the previous week in negative territory. Improved Risk Sentiment: The improved risk sentiment hampers USD demand, aiding EUR/USD's rise. 2. Technical Analysis Moving Averages: On the daily chart, EUR/USD is below all its moving averages. The bearish 20 SMA crosses below the 100 and 200 SMAs, all in the 1.0780/90 price zone. Technical Indicators: The technical indicators are slightly higher, moving away from oversold levels but still far from their midlines. Short-Term Scenario: The short-term picture shows increasing buying pressure. The EUR/USD pair is above the 20 SMA, while the longer moving averages maintain their bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators aim higher around neutral levels but struggle to surpass their midlines. 3. Key Levels Support: 1.0705 1.0660 1.0615 Resistance: 1.0755 1.0805 1.0845 4. Fundamental Context USD Pressure: The US Dollar is under mild selling pressure ahead of Wall Street's opening, giving up modest intraday gains. EUR/USD trades around 1.0730, recovering from an intraday low of 1.0681. Inflation and Political Jitters: Focus is on political concerns and inflation, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. FOMC Minutes: The macroeconomic calendar will include the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with limited impact on financial markets due to the Fed's recent economic projections. 5. European Economic Data German IFO: Germany published the June IFO Business Climate Index, which unexpectedly fell to 88.6 from 89.3 in May, missing the estimate of 89.7. Expert Assessment: FX strategists at Societe Generale note that expectations are down. 6. Future Outlook Short-Term Scenario: The EUR/USD pair needs to surpass 1.0760 to confirm positive momentum and extend gains towards the 1.0810 price zone. Market Considerations: Despite lowered expectations, the Euro is advancing even with tepid local data and might face resistance in reaching higher levels like 1.08. Conclusion The technical and fundamental outlook for EUR/USD suggests that despite a recovery momentum, the pair remains under pressure with significant resistance around 1.0760 and beyond. Economic dynamics and market expectations will continue to play a crucial role in the pair's performance, with particular attention to US economic data and Fed decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/GBP potential shortContext: • Market broke through monthly lows and stayed below • Built a weekly FVG down • On the daily, market builds a creeping trend into the weekly FVG • The weekly FVG is supported by lower timeframe FVGs on the daily and 4h chart Idea: • Look for shorts in the area 0.8465 to 0.85 (i.e. lower bound of weekly FVG up to las broken low) • Preferred entry timeframe: 4h Caution / Scenario invalidated: • Caution if market closes above 0.8484 • If market goes into 0.85, a sharp reversal should occur • If the market accepts higher prices and builds up a bullish dynamic, returning into its previous range, I skip this one Target: • Low around 0.84 Stop: • Above your entry signal • Last resort: 0.8541 Watch for your CRV Please feel free to comment!
Short
by MichaelBw
XAUUSD im still bullish on gold!! heres why whats up guys im back after a little while posting on here .. hope you're all well Price to be failed to break swing lows on the daily and is respecting current 4h trend so i am still bullish! .. geopolitical factors too with the war keep me thinking price can come up looking for confirmation to buy down here at the bottom during london session tomorrow but need to keep in mind the obstacles in my way like the 4h zone 2338 .. price is likely to bounce there other than that lets see price play out in london and make informed decisions from there have a great week! tommy
OANDA:XAUUSD
by tommyXAU
4
WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST: DXY, EUR, GBP, CAD, AUD, NZD, CHFWelcome to another Weekly Forex Forecast. In this video, we will cover: USD Index EUR GBP AUD CAD NZD CHF Like and subscribe if you like the video. Thank you! May profits be upon you. Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6S1!
by RT_Money