GBPJPY SHORT Price is making a longer term bearish N-Wave on the 4hr Chart. We just completed the third point. Now we are forming the last leg of the N-Wave
Ichimokukinkohyo
BTC- SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS !Once again, the magical Fibonacci retracement occured... Indeed, yesterday, the BTC filled its 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'340 (which is also by the way the KS and the 21 DMA ! (intraday being slightly higher @ 40'387)
Currently in a SYMETRICAL TRIANGLE IN PROGRESS .
BREAKOUT IMPLICATIONS COULD TRIGGER A MOVE OF + / - 3'099 pts !!!
TARGETING RESPECTIVELY (currently ) :
43'200 TO THE UPSIDE
35'100 TO THE DOWNSIDE
RECOMMENDATION :
WATCH ON A DAILY CLOSING THE POTENTIAL BREAKOUT LEVELS WHICH ARE, FOR TODAY, THE FOLLOWING. :
SUPPORT. : 38'200
RESISTANCE : 40'200
4 HOURS
Magical clouds too,,,
Currently still just above the MA 21 @ 39'400 and the Kijun-Sen @ 39'250
A failure to hold and stay on a 4 hours closing basis above the KS would be the first intraday warning signal, calling for further downside.
Please, also take note that a RISING WEDGE is now alive in this time frame (target 38'700)
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently supported by the hourly clouds support are which has already been tested twice (yesterday and a couple of hours ago today and as the thickness
of the clouds becomes very thin (twist) in a couple of hours, this support area should be seen as very fragile and a next breakout attempt will be difficult to be rejected...
Any comments or suggestions are always more than welcome :-)
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Regards
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC - WATCH 39'295 ON DAILY CLOSING !!!DAILY
Yesterday's price action filled for a couple of points to make a "PIERCING LINE" (following the RSI bullish divergence detected and mentioned in my previous analysis yesterday I mentioned the level of 39'295 which was the minimum point to reach to confirm this "minor" reversal pattern which, to be cleat a white candle, in order to be validate should close at least above the middle of the prior black candle and in our case closed @ 39'256...)
Please also note the importance of this 39'300 area which was for a while the daily congestion support which rejected several downside breakout attempt with success before to only be broken once and now the BTC is attempting to recover above this former support which became the new short term resistance to break, ON A DAILY CLOSING BASIS, to neutralise the downside risk !!!
Currently, a FALLING WEDGE IS IN PROGRESS , the upside BREAKOUT being...the bottom of the DAILY CLOUDS...
LEVELS TO WATCH REMAINS THE SAME :
UPSIDE : 39'295 - 40'340
DOWNSIDE : 39'295 - 37'700
So, in this daily time frame, the next closing will give us the answer..
in the meantime we are looking at the shorter time frames, in order to try to find more clues about further development.
4 HOURS
Currently in an uptrend ongoing channel (39'000 - 40'000)
38.2 % Fibonacci retracement @ 39'717 (nearly filled, high so far being @ 39'692)
Above both the Tenkan-Sen and the Kijun-Sen, respectively @ 38'696 and 29'250)
In this 4 hours time frame, a failure to hold on H4 closing basis above the Kijun-Sen @ 39'250 would already be the first warning signal to take in account... as it would put the focus to lower levels towards the 38'700 area, then to the former low @ 37'700
On the other hand, in order to maintain its current upside bias, the BTC should close above the former closing level which was @ 39'359.
A next closing level above 39'359 would open the door for the 40'000 area being the H4 clouds resistance zone and also the 50% Fib ret @ 40'340
1 HOUR
Currently above the hourly clouds area, therefore this zone (39'250-38'700) should now be seen as the new intraday support area which also roughly match with the ongoing uptrend support line (39'100) which started from the former low @ 37'700 and with the Kijun-Sen @ 39'000.
CONCLUSION
VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE CORROBORATION BETWEEN THE COMMENTS MENTIONED IN EVERY TIME FRAME !
IRONMAN8848 - JEAN-PIERRE BURKI
BTC-DAILY-RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE..BUT !Yesterday's price action (long black candle - BEARISH ENGULFING !) which pushed sharply down the BTC towards a low of 37'701 (nearly filling the TRIANGLE TARGET @ 37'581), triggered a BULLISH DIVERGENCE...
Therefore, on short term and it'is exactly what is going on, a recovery should take place; nevertheless and in order to confirm a TACTICAL REVERSAL, the BTC should recover and close on a daily basis, at least above the middle (39'295 of the yesterday's long black bearish candle which is also by the way the area of the former daily support congestion !
This only will be the first step of this potential recovery as, as long as the BTC does not make a closing level, above the closing level (40'440) of the last white bullish candle, the trend will not change and the downside risk will remain !!!
LAST BUT NOT LEAST IN THIS DAILY PICTURE, THE BTC IS WELL BELOW THE BOTTOM OF THE CLOUDS RESISTANCE AREA WHICH IS ALSO CONFIRMED WITH THE LAGGING LINE...
CONCLUSION. :
ANY RALLY, FOR THE TIME BEING SHOULD BE SEEN AS A CORRECTIVE MOVE ONLY (TACTICAL COUNTERTREND PRICE ACTION) AND NOT AS STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET; THEREFORE, ANY TACTICAL LONG POSITION SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY AND MANAGED WITH STOP LOSS ACCORDINGLY !
KEY LEVELS IN THIS DAILY TIME FRAME ARE RESPECTIVELY :
DOWNSIDE : 37'000 (ONGOING PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE)
UPSIDE : 40'500-40'800 (FORMER HIGHS)
IMPLICATIONS :
DOWNSIDE BREAKOUT OF THE PRIMARY UPTREND SUPPORT LINE :
A failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the 37'000 area would be seen as a NEGATIVE SIGNAL, calling for lower levels towards 34'325 (February low) ahead of 32'950 (January low)
Then, below the 30'000 area (psychological support) and last but not least THE VERY IMPORTANT KEY STRATEGIC SUPPORT @ 28'600 (double top trigger level !)
RECOVERY ABOVE THE FORMER HIGHS (40'500 - 40'800:
A successful recovery and a closing level above this area would momentary neutralise this ongoing downside risk and put again the BTC in a TACTICAL UPTREND.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE PRIMARY DOWNTREND LINE RESISTANCE IS CURRENTLY @ 45'600
4 HOURS
RSI BULLISH DIVERGENCE CONFIRME BY A BULLISH ENGULFING PATTERN
R1 : 38'500
R2 : 38'917
R3 : 39'717 (38.2% FIB RET 42'979 -37'701) and also the middle of the long black bearish candle seen yesterday afternoon (40'484-38'572 !)
On the downside a failure to stay and close (H4 closing basis) above the recent low @ 37'701 would reactivate the downtrend and put the focus towards the levels previously mentioned in D1
1 HOUR
RSI school case ...
On April 25th we saw a BULLISH DIVERGENCE which trigger a move from 38'202 towards a high of 40'800 (first top)
Then a second top also @ 40'800 which triggered this time a BEARISH DIVERGENCE which pushed the BTC down again from 40'800 towards a low of 37'701.
Finally this morning a BULLISH DIVERGENCE took place (potential double bottom with its trigger level @ 38'462)
WATCH ONGOING PRICE ACTION AS AN HOURLY CLOSING above 38'462 WOULD ACTIVATE THIS DOUBLE BOTTOM FORMATION FOR A TARGET @ 39'223, which roughly match with the KIJUN-SEN (or base line), currently @ 39'250
A failure to activate this double bottom in progress would put again the BTC under selling pressure with the focus on the former low of 37'701.
As usual, monitor closely price action from intraday short term time frames to longer time frames which will help you to catch early and intermediate validation or invalidation signal of what has been mentioned in longer (DAILY and 4 hours time frames)
Have a nice trading day.
Any comment are more than welcome.
Regards
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC - HOURLY - NICE RECOVERY...VERY S HORT TERM ANALYSIS (HOURLY)
Today, we are going to look carefulLy what happened after the validation of the RSI bullish divergence coupled with the double top formation which i mentioned yesterday morning in my previous analysis as a warning ... (see related idea below)
So as you can see, after this validation signal the BTC moved quickly up in a new intraday bull trend, (higher highs and higher lows, confirmed with a convergence on the RSI indicator; please also note the bullish engulfing pattern at the bottom of the chart, which also added value to this nice recovery; note also the successive long white candle which broke at each time important resistance level, begining by the Tenkan-Sen, then the Kijun-Sen, the resistanc of the former downtrend channel and finally the clouds resistance area (39'475-39'713) which increase the upside move towards an intermediate high @ 40'375 then going to the high so far @ 40'800.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'590 of the last downside correction (42'979 - 38'202 has also been filled), with the next 61.8% Fib ret @ 41'154, which also match the 4 hours clouds top resistance area and which should also be considered as the next important level to break in order to maintain this upside bias.
NEVERTHELESS, looking at the last couple hours price action, we can see a trend changing from UP to SIDEWAYS, with a RSI also moving in the same way !!
Therefore, this is the first warning signal to consider and respect !
Indeed, no bearish divergence has been confirmed yet, but I would strongly suggest to monitor very closely the price action over the upcoming trading hours.
CONCLUSION :
In order to maintain to come back in the former short term uptrend mood, the BTC should at least recover and hold above the former uptrend support line and make a new high (higher than the previous one @ 40'800
On the downside, an hourly closing below 40'375 (respectively former short term resistance area and now new short term support area !) would be the first warning signal calling for a downside correction towards the following levels :
S1 : 39'800
S2 : 39'500
S3 : 39'194 (VERY THIN HOURLY CLOUDS SUPPORT ZONE !)
As usual monitor and watch closely both shorter time frames (M30, M15 and M5) in putting in place alerts which will help you to detect early signal (s) of validation or invalidation of what I previously mentioned.
Do not forget, of course, to keep an eye, at the DAILY, WEEKLY and MONTHLY picture which will bring you a broad picture and which will remember you that the BTC is still under the influence of a MAJOR DOUBLE TOP FORMATION, with its trigger level @ 28'600, currently in the weekly time frame still in a secondary downtrend move and in the daily picture, still below the clouds...meaning that the countertrend recovery should only be consider, for the time being, as a TACTICAL RECOVERY ONLY IN A BROAD BEAR TREND and NOT AS A STRATEGIC REVERSAL YET.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
GBPJPY LONG Price is continuing to move bullish with the correction of the lagging span. The Chikou Span bounced off of the cloud for a great bullish entry. We also noticed price is creating an upward channel.
USDCAD SHORT Price has been in deep correction on the daily chart. If you look at ichimoku on the Daily Chart price has rejected at the top of the cloud and currently is projecting a bearish future also known as the kumo. On the hour chart price rejected at the fractal level and created a lower high.
Lagging Span (purple line) is pointed down and we have a bearish tk cross over for a entry into the market. Since price rejected on the daily clould I would hold this trade to maximize profit.
How to use relative strength/weakness in Forex — GBPUSD exampleIchimoku makes identifying trends very easy, but it can be difficult to know when to enter a trend. This factor is often overlooked by newer traders, and it makes a significant difference to risk-adjusted returns.
One of my favourite ways to identify when to enter a trend is to use the concept of relative strength or weakness. Put simply, relative strength or weakness is when you compare a security to an "index" and try to understand whether:
The index is moving up, and your chosen security is moving up even faster = Relative Strength
The index is moving down or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly higher = Relative Strength
The index is moving down, and your chosen security is moving down even faster = Relative Weakness
The index is moving up or ranging, and your chosen security is holding ground or moving slightly lower = Relative Weakness
This concept is incredibly important to understand. It can turn a B+ setup into an A+ setup.
The question is then, how do you find relative strength? The really easy, beginner-friendly, way is to plot the "Rate of Change" (ROC). This is an included indicator in TradingView and simply tells you how quickly something is moving up or down. What you can do with ROC is to plot it against the symbol you're trading, and then plot it again against an index. An example of an index could be $DXY for the USD. This index would work for pairs like USDJPY, USDEUR, USDGBP, etc. Any pair where USD is the base.
I found a perfect example of relative weakness on GBPUSD. I plotted the ROC for GBPUSD (green) and the ROC for all GBP pairs (red). Ichimoku already told me that GBPUSD was bearish and I was looking for an opportunity to go short. Notice, that when GBPUSD becomes weaker than all GBP pairs, there is almost no bullish pressure.
If you short when there is relative weakness, your trade would have almost zero drawdown, and you would be in profit almost instantly. Yes, you could short anywhere on this chart and make money if you didn't have a stoploss, but this is not how to trade like a professional. If you tried to short this morning when there was no relative weakness, you would have to suffer through +37 pips of drawdown before it started moving down again. Could you take that? Could your risk manager take that if you were trading someone else's money?
I encourage all traders to explore Relative Strength/Weakness. It is one of the most powerful concepts in trading, and as long as you have your "index" right, you can use this anywhere. Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Commoddities, etc.
BTC - INVERSED HAMMER AND DOJI....WEEKLY
Last weekly closing triggered an inversed hammer pattern which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal; however, it is important to note that the weekly closing is now under the weekly clouds area which means a persisting downside risk bias, stil alive...
RSI below 50, @ 43.70
LAGGING LINE is still in the bottom part of the weekly clouds support area which currently gives little support
Globally the trend remains bearish (higher lows) and this trend would only reverse if the BTC manage to recover and hold above the Tenkan-Sen, currently @ 42'701.
The next weekly closing level will be very important to look at as it will either validate the inversed hammer pattern in making a bullish engulfing pattern or invalidate in making a closing below 39'467.
DAILY
Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern (uncertainty and indecision !) this time, below the minor support, I mentioned in my previous analysis (see related ideas below)
The triangle target @ 37'581 is still valid and the base of this triangle@ 40'128) should be considered as the first significant resistance area to break which would stabilize and neutralise, for the time being this persisting selling pressure.
RSI below 5, @ 38.43
LAGGING LINE broke the clouds support area, which means, if the BTC does not recover quickly, the selling pressure will increase and will push the BTC lower towards the primary uptrend support line, currently around the 37'000 area.
4 HOURS
Below the clouds, the Kijun-Sen and the Tenkan-Sen
Watch carefully at the level of the RSI at the next upcoming H4 closing level (potential bulish divergence and double bottom !)
LAGGING LINE far away below the clouds
1 HEURE
Watch also as per H4 the upcoming price action
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
BTC - UNCERTAINTY AND INDECISION ...WEEKLY
Currently below the clouds and as I had already mentioned in my previous analysis, a weekly closing below 40’118 would add more selling pressure.
RSI below 50, @ 44.31
LAGGING LINE au milieu de la zone des nuages.
Levels to watch in a weekly basis, are the following :
UPSIDE : 41’279 - 42’690
DOWNSIDE : 38’547 - 36’500
DAILY
Currently trying to hold above a minor support trend line and still under the influence of this triangle pattern with a target @ 37’581.
In order to neutralise this ongoing downside pressure, the BTC should imperatively close, in a daily basis, above the triangle support line (@ 40’000) and also confirm the Tenkan-Sen breakout @ 40’0763 which also match with the triangle resistance line of this formation which is approaching of the apex.
RSI below 50, @ 41.16
The LAGGING LINE hold for the time being above the bottom of the clouds support area; a breakout confirmed of this support would be seen as an added negative signal.
4 HEURES
Currently below the clouds, moving sideways in a relatively narrow trading range (39’000 - 40’000) wc his corroborate perfectly with the weekly and daily comments previously mentioned.
Please note the « TWIST » (40’150 - 40’276) which means a clouds resistance area very fragile which could be broken very easily due to its little thickness and if it occurs, that would put the focus to higher level such as the Tenkan-Sen @ 41’088
On the downside, a failure to stay and close above the 39’000 area would open the door for lower levels towards the next support zone between 38’500 and 36'500
1 HEURE
Also below the clouds, currently caught between the KS and TS in support and hourly clouds (39’800 - 41’088) in resistance; the top of this resistance zone is also confirming the importance of the weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 41’279
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Bürki
BTC - YO-YO - UP AND DOWN...WEEKLY (W1)
Ongoing price action is for the time being not very encouraging ; indeed, after having briefly tested the resistance ton @ 42’680, the Bitcoin reversed sharply and came back below the weekly clouds support area.
The level of the next weekly closing will be very important to look at as, a closing confirmation below 40’118 would be seen as a negative signal which would increase considerably the downside risk, putting the focus for the next supports :
S1 : 38'547
S2 : 37'581
S3 : 36'980
In order to temporary neutralise this downside risk, the Bitcoin should at least close above the Tenkan-Sen,(@ 41’279), level already mentioned several times in my previous analysis.
Next resistances being :
R1 : 42'248
R2 . 43'385
R3 : 44’523
DAILY (D1)
High volatility seen over the last couple of days, triggered firstly an upside triangle breakout, calling for a target @ 43’400 which has been missed, higher level being 42’979, which matched with the top of the clouds resistance area and which triggered the sharp downside reversal , pushing the Bitcoin below 40’000, @ 39’770.
Yesterday, the Bitcoin failed to recover and closed, for the first time, below the triangle bottom support line which validated this triangle formation calling for a target @ 37’581. Warning, watch carefully ongoing price action (pullback) which may either validate or invalidate this recent downside breakout.
Watch also carefully the price action of the LAGGING LINE which is currently testing the bottom level of the clouds.
Finally, it is also important to note that the primary uptrend support line is currently @ 36’980 (Support nr 3 mentioned in my weekly analysis)
4 HOURS (H4)
Currently below the clouds (39’824-40’998)
LAGGING LINE also below both Tenkan-Sen and Cajun-Sen.
RSI below 50, @ 36.91
A « DOJI » triggered a « shy recovery », which for the time being has been rejected by the bottom of the clouds resistance area.
1 HOUR (H1)
Below the clouds, Kijun-Sen and Tenkan-Sen
Watch closely the RSI which may show a potential Bullish divergence (potential double bottom too) which if confirmed may trigger some recovery, with a limited upside potential as this recovery should be seen as a corrective move only in a broad bear trend.
IRONMAN8848 Jean-Pierre Bürki
GBPUSD nears bearish breakGBPUSD has been bearish since Feb and is currently nearing support. The overall picture on the daily chart looks quite bearish:
1. Price under Kumo
2. Kumo thick
3. Tenkan-Sen below Kijun-Sen
4. Chikou Span has been below price. Is currently inside price but near a bearish break.
All that is needed for the bearish trend to resume is for the price to close below the swing low. I have used the 4H chart to mark a significant level at 1.29925. I will be looking for a short trade if we break below here on the 4H chart.
I won't short just yet. While the 1D chart is definitely more bearish, the 4H chart is choppy. The flat Ichimoku Han-ne lines tell us that price could retrace, so we need to wait for confirmation first.
It's also worth noting that IG Client Sentiment has retail traders net long 77% . Retail traders are typically losing traders, so if retail is loading up long, it increases my conviction to go short.
My plan is simple:
1. If price breaks lower, I look to short.
2. If price retraces upwards, I stay away.
BTC-DAILY- MAGICAL CLOUDS, ISNT'IT ?DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action has been a perfect school case about the POWERFUL ICHIMOKU CLOUDS; indeed, if you look at the yesterday's price action, the picture does not need additional comment...
Well, to very quickly resume the situation, the BTC is, after having nearly crossing over the top of the clouds, the BTC corrected sharply downwards, with its DAILY CLOSING BELOW THE CLOUDS @ 40'470 and also below the TENKAN--SEN @ 40'763 !!!
A couple of hours ago, the BTC reached an intraday low, a couple of hours ago, below 40'000, @ 39'770 and is currently trying to recover...
Overall, the yesterday's price action changed the mood , in moving from a potential BULLISH scenario (upside triangle breakout) to, currently rather at a BEARISH SCENARIO, calling for lower levels; a failure to hold on a DAILY CLOSING LEVEL above the former and recent low @ 39'770 should be seen as a first warning signal, calling for lower levels towards 38'500/37'500.
A WEEKLY CLOSING LEVEL below the weekly clouds of 40'118 would add significant selling pressure for next upcoming week !
4 HOURS (H4)
RSI bearish divergence, coupled with a shooting star pattern (above 42'000) was the reversal signal which pushed the BTC sharply down below the 40'000
After having briefly broken the clouds bottom of the 4 hours chart (@ 40'400) and reached the level of 39'770 previously mentioned, the ongoing price action, in this time frame, is showing an attempt to hold in the clouds.
RSI @ 43.78 and LAGGING LINE below the clouds.
Therefore, levels to watch (4 hours closing basis !) are the following :
resistance 3 : 42'979
resistance 2 : 41'374
resistance 1 ; 40'763
******************************* CURRENT LEVEL : 40'500/40'600
support 1 : 40'347
support 2 : 39'770
support 3 : 38'547
1 HOUR (H1)
Currently below the clouds...
Watch LAGGING LINE price action, which for the time being is still in the clouds !
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
S&P500 1H Ichimoku Analysis — Three scenarios to watch forFollowing my analysis of the bullish 4H signal, it is important to look at lower timeframes to analyse the trend.
On the 1H chart, we can see price is currently consolidating. Flat Han-ne lines (Tenkan-Sen/yellow and Kijun-Sen/red) indicate the short and medium-term price isn't making new highs or lows. The same is true with the Kumo cloud. When our Ichimoku lines go flat, we can expect that the price might start retracing and testing support/resistance.
We have three scenarios:
A: Price continues higher
B: Pullback intensifies, we find support, price continues higher
C: Price can't find support, consolidates, then breaks lower
I would look for longs in A/B if we also get our Ichimoku lines angled up again. We have already seen the uptrend starting on the 4H chart, so this analysis of the 1H chart is to confirm our bias. If we get into situation C, then our short term bias is in conflict with our longer-term bias, so we don't trade. It's that easy!
The 4H chart for those interested:
Bullish Ichimoku Signal on S&P500 FuturesIf S&P500 futures close above 4482 on the close of this 4H candle it will trigger a strong Ichimoku buy signal. The "Sanyaku Kouten" signal is when we have a Tenkan/Kijun cross, Chikou breakout, and Kumo breakout. Watch today's price action and check lower timeframes for entries. We have nearly passed all the hurdles I mentioned in my earlier TradingView idea that would signal a bullish shift in bias.
As always, watch lower timeframes such as 1H and 30m to confirm if there is a simultaneous uptrend. We don't have an edge in trading ranging markets, so capturing the trend is important.
BTC-IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLOUDS...DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a DOJI pattern; indeed after having opened @ 41'476, briefly broken the former TRIANGLE BREAKOUT LEVEL @ 41'100 (low being 40'893, the BTC managed to recover in making a closing @ 41'375, confirming the still alive triangle target @ 43'400,
As long as the BTC stays and hold on a daily closing above 41'000, the way is open for 43'390-43'400 (50% FIb ret, Kijun-Sen and triangle target previously mentioned.
A failure to do it would invalidate this TRIANGLE FORMATION (daily closing below 41'000) and put the focus towards the daily bottom clouds support around the 40'400 area which is also, by the way the Tenkan-Sen level.
4 HOURS (H4)
Interesting price action seen yesterday and this morning where, yesterday, the upside breakout attempt of the clouds (long white candle) in this 4 hours time frame has been directly neutralized by a BEARISH ENGULFING PATTERN and the breakout of the ongoing uptrend support line, which pushed the BTC down again towards the middle area of the clouds.
The ongoing price action is showing a new breakout attempt with its last closing level (H4) matching roughly the top of the clouds zone in this time frame.
Therefore, upcoming trading hours should give more clues about further development, targeting respectively, 42'220 ahead 43'400 if the upside breakout is validated or in case of a failure to do it, a return in the clouds with first support level @ 40'858 (MBB) ahhead of the bottom of Hç clouds support at 40'400.
RSI above 50, @ 60.34 and LAGGING LINE, currently roughly in the middle of the clouds.
1 HOUR (H1)
The 38,2% Fibonacci retracement @ 40'811 of the recent rally (38'562-42202) has nearly been reached (yesterday's intraday low being 40^8939.
Interesting to note that once again the CLOUDS worked perfectly well and this time as a SUPPORT AREA.
Continue to monitor and watch closely at this hourly clouds (41'300 - 40'000) as very short term support area, the 61.8% Fib ret being @ 39'952, also matching the hourly clouds bottom zone.
IRONMAN8848 - Jean-Pierre Burki
CADCHF - Ichimoku Uptrend in 4H and 1HCADCHF is trending up according to Ichimoku on the 4H and 1H chart. Additionally, CAD is showing strength, and CHF weakness, on currency-strength.com
Ichimoku criteria:
1. Kumo angled up + thick
2. Price above Tenkan-Sen
3. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen angled up
4. Chikou above price
I am looking for a long entry on lower timeframes to follow this trend.
AUDUSD Intraday LongI have taken an intraday long position on AUDUSD using the 1H and 15m charts for confluence. Each chart shows:
1. Thick Kumo Angled up
2. Tenkan-Sen+Kijun-Sen angled up
3. Chikou above candles
We are also in the first leg of a Kumo breakout according to the 1H chart.
I entered on the labelled resistance breakout.
Ichimoku is somewhat bearish on the 4H chart, which is why I am managing this trade aggressively. I will keep my SL tight to manage risk.
USDJPY Bullish - Nearing V Price Target
USDJPY is bullish on the 4H timeframe according to Ichimoku.
1. Kumo is thick and angled up
2. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen are angled up
3. Chikou Span is above the candles
4. Price has cleared recent horizontal resistance.
I entered a long position at the break of horizontal resistance. I am holding with a target price of 128.959 as this is the Ichimoku V price target, using the 4th March low, 18 March high, and 30 March low as intercept points.
I am shifting my stoploss up higher with every flat Kijun-sen on the 30m chart expecting the bullish momentum to continue intraday.
S&P500 still bearish — three hurdles to pass before I trade longS&P500 (via E-mini futures) is still bearish on the 4H Ichimoku chart. There are three hurdles that it needs to pass before I will look for a long position:
1. Price action resistance at 4455
2. Resistance from the future Senko Span B at 4442
3. Price is still under the cloud
I would look for long positions if it clears these three hurdles and we have a Kumo breakout. I would look for shorts if it goes back below 4360. Until either of these happen I won't trade. It's that simple!
BTC - BREAKOUT OR BULL TRAP ?DAILY (D1)
Yesterday's price action triggered a second long white candle in a row, which broke on a closing basis (41'505) the upside triangle trigger level @ 41'115 which should, potentially activate the triangle technical target, calling for a move towards 43'400 , which is also, by the way, projected in the next days the top of the daily clouds resistance area and therefore should be seen, if reached at a KEY PIVOT LEVEL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
Interesting to note that 43'390 is the 50% Fib ret (48'534 - 35'547) and also the KIJUN-SEN, meaning very important level as previously mentioned.
Nevertheless, following this first upside breakout I would remain cautious and it also could be a BULL TRAP as already seen in the past...
In addition, the current level of the daily top clouds resistance area (41'900) is working as the first obstacle to be broken to confirm this upside move towards 43'400.
On the downside, a failure to hold and close on a daily basis above the triangle trigger level, now @ 41'061 should be seen as the first warning signal of a wrong breakout and would put again the BTC on a neutral mode, roughly in the middlle of the daily clouds.
4 HOURS (H4)
TOP OF THE 4 HOURS CLOUDS is currently working perfectly well, in rejecting four successive upside breakout attempts !!
RSI is losing momentum and began to turn down.
LAGGING LINE is above both TS and KS but did not managed, so far, to enter in the clouds resistance yet...
First support to look at in the 4 hours time frame is @ 41'166 and a closing below that level would increase the risk, calling for further downside towards the 4 hours clouds bottom area, around 40'300 (MBB being @ 40'467 and KS @ 40'150
Globally the psychological 40'000 former resistance level became now the NEW SUPPORT which should not be broken in order to keep going the ongoing upside bias !
1 HOUR (H1)
Short term support @ 41'277 (currently under attack) ahead of 41'166; 38.2% Fib ret of the last rally @ 40'53 , 50% @ 40'158 and 61.8% @ 39'781, this Fibonacci retracement zone match with the hourly clouds support area, which, also, perfectly corroborate the important 40'000 support level previously mentioned in longer time frame.
Have a nice trading day.
IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
How I'm setting stop losses on USDJPY using IchimokuIn my recent post I indicated that I am long USDJPY due to the higher timeframe bullish trend:
A question that traders often ask is "how do I set a stop-loss when the market is moving up?". This applies if you are looking to enter your first trade in the trend, or if you want to trail a stop-loss on an existing order. The answer is simple when you use Ichimoku.
Briefly, Ichimoku lines indicate the "market equilibrium" over various timeframes. There are three equilibrium lines (or "Han-ne" lines in Japanese). These are:
1. Tenkan-Sen - 9 periods / Short-term equilibrium (yellow on my chart)
2. Kijun-Sen - 26 periods / Medium-term equilibrium (red on my chart)
3. Senko Span B - 52 periods / Long-term equilibrium (red kumo cloud line on my chart)
A Han-ne line is created by finding the midpoint of the highest high and lowest low within the set number of periods. If price is above a Han-ne line, it is said to be bullish in that timeframe, and the opposite for bearish. There is a lot more to learn about Han-ne lines and the meaning of the equilibrium, but for our purposes here, understand that these lines tell you the point where buyers and sellers meet.
One of the reasons we know that USDJPY is bullish is because the Han-ne lines are angled up on the higher timeframes (4H and 1D). This means that the point at which buyers and sellers meet is increasing. In other words: we are trending up!
Now: the secret for setting your stop-loss. If the Han-ne line tells us where the equilibrium is over the short/medium/long term, periods where the line remains flat are significant. If a Han-ne line, especially Kijun-Sen or Senko Span B, remains flat for multiple periods, it means that midprice has been established by many buyers and sellers.
We can use these flat Han-ne lines as:
1. Support/resistance
2. Zones to place stop-loss orders
As I look at a pair like USDJPY trending up, I am zooming into the lower timeframes (think: 15m or 30m) and looking for flat Han-ne lines. If I see several "zones" forming I can place my stop-loss just near the other side of that zone. This means I can receive adequate protection, but also know that if the price does clear that zone and hit my order, a reversal or pullback is likely happening and it will be a good time to exit anyway.
We've already seen a flat Kijun-Sen line act as support on the 15m chart:
You can use this concept for any pair, currency, stock, crypto, etc. The secret is to look for flat lines and use these as your support/resistance levels and stop-loss zones.
Happy trading!
BTC - UNEXPECTED RECOVERY ?HOURLY (H1)
Although no bullish divergence was detected in this hourly time frame, the BITCOIN managed to recover nicely, breaking on its way up all resistances very quickly, in a short period of time; it also managed to recover above the hourly clouds and hold above it for the time being.
After having reached, a coupled of hours ago, an intraday high @ 41'250, the BTC is currently moving slightly down and is now, again, below the Tenkan-Sen, which should be seen as a good indicator in this hourly time frame.
We are now, roughly, in the same position than yesterday morning when the BTC reached a intraday low @ 38'547, no RSI bearish divergence had been detected and nevertheless a nice rally took place (38'547-41'250).
Are we going to see the same scenario on the other side ???
The answer to this question will be given by the KEY PIVOT LEVEL OF 40'000 , which also match with the hourly clouds support area, the H4 Mid Bollinger Band, the bottom of the Daily clouds zone; in summary, A VERY IMPORTANT LEVEL WHICH SHOULD NOT BE UNDERESTIMATED !!!
4 HOURS (H4)
The H4 clouds worked perfectly well as resistance level for the time being; two successive "shooting stars" took place when attempting to enter in the clouds.
On the upside, watch the 4 hours clouds resistance area between 40'950 and 42'100 as the next barrier to break.
A failure to hold, on H4 closing basis, above the ongoing former downtrend line resistance, currently @ 40'469) which became now the new support, would be the first warning signal of a BULL TRAP and would opent the door for lower levels towards, the MBB @ 40'178 ahead of the cluster of KS and TS @ 39'900.
DAILY (D1)
Despite this recent rally, the BTC did not managed to close on a DAILY BASIS above the Tenkan-Sen @ 40'998 !
Therefore, the today's ongoing price action and more important its closing level may give more clues about further development for the upcoming daily session (s).
Indeed, the TRIANGLE PATTERN is still alive, with now, 2 potential breakouts - 41'105 and 39'813 , targeting respectively 43'390 on the upside and 37'474 on the downside, depending on which side the breakout will occur...
Watch TS (40'481) as the first support ahead of the daily bottom clouds @ 40'000.
WEEKLY (W1)
Last weekly closing @ 39'691 below the weekly clouds bottom (39'895) for the first time since January 2022 when the Bitcoin reached an intraweek low @ 32'950 with a weekly closing below the clouds @ 36'294.
Ongoing price action is showing a recovery attempt, the BTC being, currently, again in the bottom of the clouds and facing the first significant level to break, which is the weekly Tenkan-Sen @ 41'279, (very important level, already mentioned several times in my previous analysis !)
The weekly clouds are very thick (40'118 - 50'550) and therefore should be seen as a difficult area to break straight away...Mid Bollinger Band @ 42'407 will also be an important level to watch at and also consider as a barometer or pivot level for further development.
IRONMAN8848. - Jean-Pierre Burki
