Ichimokukinkohyo
Good time for long on EURUSD /BB/RSI/ICHIHi, TradingView community! I would like to share with you my analysis on EURUSD. It looks like we have a potential opportunity to take a buy position, based on several key factors.
I present my observations below:
Duration of analysis:
H1-D1 intervals (position: daytrade / max 2 days)
Current situation:
Ichimoku: .
D1: EURUSD after the dead cross signal from D1 - realized the target (touching the cloud)
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Bollinger Bands + RSI: .
D1: Price is at the lower Bollinger band
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H4: Price is at the lower Bollinger band and RSI is at ~30
H1: Price stops 3 times at the lower Bollinger band and RSI is at ~30 level
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In addition, on the lower intervals the Haiken Ashi candles are turning upward:
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Please keep in mind that trading in the financial market involves risk, so it is always important to apply appropriate risk management principles. This is just my personal analysis, so I always recommend that you carefully check the data and make your own assessment before making a trading decision.
I encourage you to share your insights and opinions on this topic. I look forward to your comments!
Warning: this publication does not constitute investment advice. Trading in the financial market involves the risk of capital loss, so always evaluate your investment decisions carefully.
Ichimoku Target Price Theory V, N, E and NT CalculationsTHE BASICS:
Here is a close up of the Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō indicator:
Many people do not know that the Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō cloud system has its own Number, Wave, Target Price and Timespan Theories. After years of study, the numbers that Goichi Hosoda choose for his system are 9, 17, 26 as the basic numbers with 33, 42, 65, 76, 129 and 200~257. These numbers are used in the timespan as well as on the indicator itself.
9 is used for the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen)
26 is used for the Base Line (Kijun Sen)
26 is also used for the Lagging Span (Chikou Span) and is used to shift the current price back 26 periods. The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) is an exceptional part of the system and allows you to see possible support and resistance levels without drawing any lines.
The Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) is calculated using the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) and Base Line (Kijun Sen) values and is then plotted 26 periods into the future and shows potential future support and resistance levels.
The Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) is calculated using double of 26 so 52 periods and is then and is then plotted 26 periods into the future. This also shows potential future support and resistance levels.
Note that:
The Area ABOVE the cloud is called the BULLISH ZONE.
The Area BELOW the cloud is called the BEARISH ZONE.
The Area IN BETWEEN the Leading Span A (Senkou Span A) and Leading Span B (Senkou Span B) levels is called the EQUILIBRIUM ZONE.
Note that the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) and Base Line (Kijun Sen) ARE NOT MOVING AVERAGES but are instead calculated high and low midpoints of the price. So the Conversion Line (Tenkan Sen) is high and low calculated midpoint for the last 9 Periods (short-term) and the Base Line (Kijun Sen) is high and low calculated midpoint for the last 26 Periods (mid-term).
THE ADVANCED:
Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō Target Price Theory with examples:
How accurate is Goichi Hosoda’s Target Price Theory? Using the history of the DJI/USD chart….. it turns out the calculation are very accurate.
Note that i have added in timespans from Hosoda’s numbers to see if there is a day of change on the Ichimoku numbers 9, 17, 26, 33, 42, 65, 76, 129 and 200~257. Note that you can be flexible with these numbers so if a day of change is 8 days instead of 9 or 77 days instead of 76 then that is fine with this system.
Ichimoku System has 4 Price Target Calculations called V, N, E and NT. A few of these we will see below. As you’ll see below, the calculations do change if they are POSITIVE or NEGATIVE.
If we look at the Positive N Calculation from the Monday 3rd August 1896 until Monday 6th sept 1897 we can see that it was spot on.
N Calculation positive
N = C + (B-A) = D
(B) $32.55 - (A) $20.77 = $11.79
(C) $27.79 + (B-A) $11.78 = (D) $39.57
The actual price it went to was $40.41
If we look at the above Negative V Calculation from the Monday 29th Sept 1929 until Monday 5th sept 1931 we can see that again, the calculation was spot on.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $302 - (B) $194 = $108
(B) $194 - (C-B) $108 = (D) $86
The actual price it went to was $85.76 and continued to $40.72
If we look at this Negative N Calculation from the Monday 9th November 1931 until Monday 30th May 1932 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
N Calculation Negative
N = C - (A-B) = D
(A) $118.86 - (B) $69.85 = $48.75
(C) $89.87 - (C-B) $48.75 = (D) $41.12
Actual = $43.52 and continued to $40.72
If we look at the Positive V Calculation from Monday 4th July 1932 until Monday 17th July 1933 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
V Calculation Positive
V = B + (B-C) = D
(B) $81.63 - (C) $48.81 = $32.82
(B) $81.63 + (C-B) $32.82 = (D) $114.45
Actual = $110.90
If we look at the Negative V Calculation from Monday 4th Nov 1940 until Monday 13th April 1942 we can see that again, it was almost spot on.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $131 - (B) $114 = $17
(B) $114 - (C-B) $17 = (D) $97
Actual = $92.60
If we look at the Positive NT Calculation from Monday 23rd March 2020 until Monday 10th May 2021 we can see that again, it was spot on.
NT Calculation Positive
NT = C + (C-A)
(C) $26,114 - (A) $18,217 = $7,897
(C) $26,114 + (C-A) $7,897 = $34,011
Actually price went up to $36,971 which was until Monday 3rd Jan 2022.
If we look at the Negative V Calculation from Monday 12th Dec 2022 until Monday 13th March 2023 we can see that again, it was close but off from about $600 but still would’ve made a profit.
V Calculation Negative
V = B - (C-B) = D
(C) $34,344 - (B) $32,582 = $1,762
(B) $32,582 - (C-B) $1,762 = (D) $30,820
Actual price went to = $31,428
I have done these examples on the 1 week chart but this system also work for lower timeframes. I could go through and add much more calculations but i think you get the point with just these few. I hope this post has been helpful and insightful.
For those interested, below are 2 links to my previous post about Ichimoku Kinkō Hyō that you may find helpful.
Ichimoku Wave Theory:
Ichimoku Crypto:
BTC SHORT TERM LONG + EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW.DONT FORGET TO CHECK MY PREVIOUS ANALYSIS,
BTC CURRENTLY IS TRADING IN BETWEEN 20K-23K, ONCE BULLS HOLD 23200 AND CLOSE ABOVE THIS NUMBER WE MIGHT VISIT 30K FOR SURE. THE MARKET MIGHT RANGE IN BETWEEN 22K & 30K AS WELL FOR A LONG TIME. SO IF YOU ARE A SCALPER YOU MIGHT ADVANTAGE FROM ITS MOVEMENT, + Dont Forget To Match With Your Strategy.
TO LEARN MY WAYS JUST DM ME.
Like + Comments Will Be A Big Support.
Disclaimer:
Buying OR Selling is your own decesion. This is just my personal view of the market for educational purposes.
WTI Crude Oil possible down trend On weekly time frame:
- Price is below the cloud
- Chinkou is under price
Overview: Bearish
On daily time frame:
- Price needs to go out of the cloud to be clear down trend continuing
- Chinkou is right above price. It needs to close below the price in order to confirm down trend
GBPCAD Ichimoku Kinko Hyo AnalysisMonthly: no trend based on 5 lines of Ichimoku
However, Chikou 9 still above candles
=> Price can still sideway-up or retrace a little bit to Tenkan-sen till 1 Sep 2023
Weekly:
Kumo up
Kijun-sen up
Tenkan-sen up
Chiko above candles
Bullish Kyushu Ashi (note: Kyushu Ashi is in Kihon suchi => wait for the breakout bullish of daily to trade
Daily:
Price is in a small range between 1.70491 and 1.68908, however price is above Tenkan-sen
Kijun-sen flat
Chiko above candles
Kumo flat
Buy scenario: Price break the small range up, which also makes Kijun-sen up and Kumo up => buy based on lower tf
Sell scenario: not recommend
BTC/USD Monthly Chart - Volume POC AnalysisBTC/USD Volume Analysis - Bitstamp 1 month chart.
BTC is still in a massive Ichimoku Y-Wave Pattern, which is like a western Broadening Wedge Pattern.
BTC is also in a massive Ichimoku P-Wave Pattern, which is like a western Symmetrical Triangle or Pennant.
BTC is also in a massive Rising Wedge Pattern.
I have also added in various Support and Resistance lines on this chart as highlighted by the thin dotted straight white lines.
Here is a closer look at this Bitstamp monthly chart:
At the moment of typing this, BTC is still being hampered by its Key Resistance Area located with the dotted straight white lines with yellow shading.
Note that on the month of 1st Feb 2023, BTC broke out of its Falling Wedge Pattern and successfully re-tested it as support, 1st on the month staring 1st Feb 2023 and 2nd on the month starting 1st Mar 2023.
Looking at the Bollinger Bands we can see that the price is still under its Bollinger Bands Middle Band Basis 20 Period SMA on this month chart. Note that the Lower Band has started to curve back around straight.
I have added a few FRVP (Fixed Range Volume Profile) indicators to every group of 3 one month candles on this visible chart, you can clearly see the various Points of Control (POC) for all those 3x one month candles which are indicated by the straight white line on each 3 month FRVP indicators. Looking at the month starting 1st Feb 2021, we can see that our Point of Control (POC) for those 3x one month candles is located at our UPPER Resistance/Support line of our Key Area of Resistance. If we look at the month starting 1st May 2022, we can see that our Point of Control (POC) for those 3x one month candles is located at out LOWER Resistance/Support line of our Key Area of Resistance.
Looking at the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP), we can see where the Point of Control (POC) is for this charts Visible Range as highlighted by the Dashed straight white line.
Looking at the Volume on this Bitstamp 1 month chart, we can see that this month’s Volume Bar ended above its 20 Period Moving Average.
If we take a look at the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) we can see that the Red Histograms have consistently degreased in size since Sept 2022. The MACD Line (Blue Line) is indicating momentum is upwards and the MACD Line looks very likely to cross back ABOVE the Signal Line (Orange Line) on this monthly chart. If/when the MACD Line (Blue Line) crosses back above the Signal Line (Orange Line) it will create a new Green Histograms and a buy signal on this monthly chart for this indicator. When that happens it will be the first new Green Histogram since the month of 1st Dec 2021.
Looking at the Up/Down Volume Indicator for this Bitstamp chart, we can see the difference between the buyers and sellers as indicated by the Delta Line in the Volume Bars. Note that this useful indicator takes into account the whole Candle Wick so the full Open and Close price and not just the Body of the Candle.
If we take a look at the Average Directional Index (ADX DI) we can see that the Trend Strength hasn’t turned upwards yet with the ADX (Yellow Line) at 21.11 and note the DAX Line is still under its 9 Period EMA (White Line) which is at 26.34. Positive Momentum is sideways at the moment with the +DI (Green Line) at 22.05 and Negative Momentum is also sideways at the moment with the -DI (Red Line) at 19.06. A good sign to look out for on this indicator is when the ADX (Yellow Line) starts moving upwards and an eventually cross back ABOVE its 9 Period EMA (White Line) as well as an upwards trajectory for the +DI (Green Line) and a downwards trajectory for the -DI (Red Line) diverging apart form each other on this 1 month chart.
As stated in my previous BTC post, the Price needs to successfully CLOSE ABOVE its Key Resistance Area and turn that area into Strong Support. So it seems there might be very interesting times ahead for BTC and the whole Crypto market, especially if we get a Buy Signal on the MACD Indicator if/when the MACD Line (Blue Line) crossing back ABOVE the Signal Line (Orange Line) on this 1 month chart.
I hope this post is helpful.
BTC Cloud Analysis ☁️🇯🇵According to Daily Timeframe, BTC hit a supply zone which must be break above bullish in order to confirm the 24k target. Otherwise we can expect a retracement. At 21200 we have a fresh demand zone buying pressure is expected at least to push price higher.
Ichimoku Cloud Signals:
1D Strong Kumo breakout, however the cloud is not very thick which indicates the trend is not that long term. Chiko + Tenkan sen and senko span A are pointing upwards which is great! Kijun sen and Senko span B are getting flat though, this means a retracement is imminent plus we approaching a Supply zone.
4H A retracement to Kijun sen already happened. All lines are almost pointing upwards strongly there's a bit of a curve which means it could range a bit before the next move. Kumo is way thicker which means the bull trend is getting more stable and stronger!
1H Senko Span B + Kijun sen got flat which means a retracement is expected to Kijun sen the yellow horizontal line marks the level the retracement could go down then we expect price to react to this and with intraday trend change confirmation + candlestick pattern we can go long with a 22.6k target if retracement happens. As this is a strong breakout on the Daily TF it could totally continue to breakthrough without pullback.
5M bar chart we can clearly see a range already forming on this resistance level. We need to see a breakout of the cloud with a strong signal coming along with lagging span to confirm that the retracement is happening. Please wait for this to end and trade in favor of the main trend from higher timeframes.
Please manage your expectations and risk 2% of your capital per trade.
Happy Trading ♥
Trend Continuation Idea 🤖 Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis:
D1 Bounced off strongly from key support level that holds the uptrend within the ranging market.
H4 Ichimoku Kumo Breakout destroying downtrend structure signaling the start of a potential reversal to the upside which goes along with Daily Timeframe trend and structure.
Key Areas
Key Support area: 0.2748 - 0.2493 (Potential Entries)
Key Resistance area: 0.4558 - 0.5243 (Potential Targets)
Please make sure to check brokers slippage along with trading fees for you to accommodate if the trading signal is useful for you or not.
Do not risk entire portfolio on a single trade. Remember market is king!
Stay healthy and happy trading!