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HSI1!

15-19/8 weekly Playbook Overall, $HSI remains cautious until heavy-weighted names earnings release. Therefore, I expect $HSI will continue tight range bound between Monday and Wednesday. Of note, I want to see how the price reacts around the 2H belt as it entered the belt. Price scenario: Open/bid above 20078-096, build up time/volume, would test these 20230s area and see if the sellers are still there. If we do manage to break higher, would tgt 20500 and 20633 along the way. 192-230 would be reasonable targets for longs. If this 20230s area fails, then can revert all the way lower and test 19455. Open/offer below 20000, want to test 19873/842/825. Below this we’re more than likely going to tgt this 760-600 weekly low volume area where I expect responsive buying. On the way lower would look at 549/519/440 for support. Depending on the action, if I dont see strong reaction from sellers prior to hitting this 760-600 area, I think we can bounce and test 20167 and 20236.
HKEX:HSI1!
by sherlou_0505
Belt STILL rejected HSI!Last week HKEX:HSI1! rallied to 20300 previous week low volume area then got sold off towards 19450-ish, previous daily excess, where seller couldn't find traction. Buyers stepped in and ended OTFD and created three sessions of OTFU into 20300-ish and again got rejected, which left weekly OTFD continued. Looking ahead, with the Belt, aka @spacemanbtc creation, getting lower, I expect STFR mode still in play, unless the low volume area is taken out. Bullish case: IMO, buyers in control as long as the area holds, then claim and gain acceptance within 266-355, targets 585 Bearish case: breaking down 4/8 low would trigger weakness, and overall it's simple, keep price under 356 and break 19456, to maintain weekly OTFD, target 19216/063/18879/576
HKEX:HSI1!
by sherlou_0505
HSI 25/7-29/7 weekly planHKEX:HSI1! Failure to take out previous VAH led to sell-off down to level near the single prints created on Monday. Week ahead, pivot would be 20868 Since the huge excess 21192-21600 has not been untested, the sentiment for upcoming week favours bears and remains sell-the-rally mode until aggressive buyers take out that excess, which I doubt. FOMC may be the catalyst. 20626-20560 would be a significant area for buyers to defend, or found a bottom. Yellow area under 20626-20560 is definitely an area that likely to see responsive buyers jump in, which is necessary for bulls to reverse downtrend. If bulls buy this dip, they need to establish acceptance above that LVN around 20500 for continuation. If bulls fail, the previous week excess will be next support. Indicators: www.tradingview.com
HKEX:HSI1!
by sherlou_0505
Will HSI finish strong for Q2?2 weeks ago we discussed why the HSI:HSI rebound rally would be slowed by profit takers (). The choppiness in the index we saw for the past 2 weeks was also due to the discrepancy between the China and US equity market. While the SSE Composite SSE:000001 still held above 3300 level, the US equity indexes all broke through the 2022-May low due to the increasing worries of inflation and recession risk. Hong Kong as a market sitting in between the east and the west taking different messages from each side, fluctuation is inevitable in such a situation. Strong rebound in the US equity market last Friday In the recent Friday session (Jun-24), the US equity markets showed a strong rebound and paired back most of the losses from the past 2 weeks and stood above the May-2022 low again. That means the breakout to the downside we saw last week is likely to be a false breakout. While the main direction of the US equity market is still downward, it could take a break at this price level (to accumulate more energy before diving further). This break also means alignment between the US and China markets, which create the necessary condition for Hong Kong HSI to continue the rally to the upside. Xi Jinping is joining the HKSAR 25th anniversary event Next Friday, July-1 is the 25th Anniversary of the establishment of the HKSAR (also known as reunification with China). Last week Xi Jinping has confirmed that he will physically attend the anniversary event , which marks the first time for Xi to step out of mainland China since Covid outbreak in 2020. This gesture re-emphasizes the importance of Hong Kong to China. Reopen to revive Hong Kong Economy Back in early June the Liaison Office of Central People’s Government (LOCPG, Beijing’s main body overseeing Hong Kong) had hosted a meeting with foreign business chambers to collect “suggestion” and “advice” on how to revive the Hong Kong business environment. All chambers had expressed that the existing quarantine measure is the biggest roadblock for local business. With the new chief executive of Hong Kong, John Lee coming onboard next month, all eyes will be on him to iron out the reopening details of Hong Kong with mainland China and the rest of the world. Personally I am optimistic about the relaxation of quarantine measures as soon as the coming Q3. Reopening of Hong Kong is actually a one-stone-two-birds move for China. First, it can serve as a welcoming gift for John Lee from China, to help him rebuild trust between the government and the people in the city. Second, reviving Hong Kong economy, especially its financial market, is one of the crucial steps for China to save its downturning economy. I believe the announcement of the reopening would be one of the major events in Q3 that send the Hong Kong HSI Index to the upside. Technical Discussion HSI index retested the 20 days and 50 days moving average without going through, reconfirming the support at these levels. The strength also pulled the 20 days moving average above the 50 days creating a bullish technical signal. If we follow the upside rally narrative, below are the levels the index must break through to confirm the sustainability of the trend: 22142: 09-Jun, choppy zone peak 22523: 04-Apr, rebound peak from market plummet in Mar-2022 However, one needs to be extra cautious if the index drops below the low of the choppy zone at 20697 again , as this would mean the rally narrative discussed above is still premature. Long positions in the index as well as other Hong Kong listed stocks should be trimmed partially for risk management.
HSI:HSILong
by geoffreyip523
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers. The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:HSILong
by TradingShot
3
HSI1! 2022 MAR 28 Week HSI1! 2022 MAR 28 Week Continue to watch reaction at 22703. Weakness expected, market may test 20241. Do note that downtrend remains since trendline has yet to be broken and higher low has not yet formed. Weekly: Ultra High Volume very wide spread up bar rejecting lower prices, followed by average vol down bar closing off low, level with previous bar = some strength Daily: Declining volume as price was marked up = weakness H4: Topping off, temporary weakness Entry will be based off the price reaction to levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
2
HSI1! 2022 MAR 21 Week HSI1! 2022 MAR 21 Week 18037 support returned strongly. Wait for reaction at 22703 as market returns to test previous breakdown and channel area. Weekly: Ultra High volume up bar closing on high = possible weakness Daily: Very high volume reversal followed by average volume up bar = strength H4: Market up on reducing bullish volume = weakness Entry will be based off the price reaction to levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
2
HSI1! 2022 FEB 28 Week HSI1! 2022 FEB 28 Week Short preference last week proved very fruitful. The spring over the last daily bar shows rejection of lower prices and demand overcoming supply (D/S). Scenarios: 1) Long on dip opportunity in the 22389-23000 region as temporary strength returns 2) Should Support 22389 fail, short opportunity on test of break down area to next demand region Weekly: High volume down bar closing off low = strength Daily: Average volume down bar closing at high = strength H4: Average volume shakeout bar closing at high = strength Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
HSI1! 2022 FEB 21 Week HSI1! 2022 FEB 21 Week Again at 24140 support if this is a formation of a new zone 25244 - 23304, would exoect market to test 23304 As such preference will be to short on retracement, and also at the failure of 24140 support. Weekly: Average volume down bar closing at low (also appearing like reversal bars) = weakness Daily: Average volume down bar closing on low = weakness H4: No result from bullish volume = weakness Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
HSI1! 2022 FEB 14 Week HSI1! 2022 FEB 14 Week Market tested again previous supply area. - No higher high was made - No commitment as market nears recent high. Temporary weakness expected for long opportunity on retracement. Weekly: Average volume up bar closing off high = weakness Daily: Average volume down bar closing on low = weakness H4: Temporary weakness Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
HSI1! 2022 JAN 24 Week HSI1! 2022 JAN 24 Week Last week scenario2 played out as price pull back below 24391 to test supply before uptrend continuation. Market may return to test breakout area Long on pullback preferred. Weekly: Average volume Up bar closing off high = Weakness Daily: Average volume Upthrust bar = weakness. H4: Price came down on reduced volume = No supply Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677
HSI1! 2022 JAN 17 Week HSI1! 2022 JAN 17 Week Last week scenario 1 played out - HS exited trend line, breakout was tested and now price is at a previous supply zone. (24391 and HTF brown dashed trend line) Possible scenarios are mapped out 1) Break of 24391 and resistance becomes support 2) Pullback below 24391 to test for supply before continuing on the uptrend 3) Do note the possibility of a formation of a larger rotation area 24391 - 22663,of which testing of the bottom of the range will not be a surprise. Daily: Average volume down bar closing off low = demand is present. Next bar should close higher in order for strength to continue. H4: Weak closes may see price heading lower temporarily, leading to scenario2. Entry will be based off the price reaction to these levels Short on Test and Reject) | Long on Test and Accept Have a sane trading week for Hang Seng : )
HKEX:HSI1!
by paradox677