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Hang Seng HSI

Rebound is around the corner for Chinese developersLast week we discussed the scenario of Hong Kong/China equity rebound due to the political environment change in China. HSI did end up close above the May open, creating a hammer candle in the monthly chart, and stood atop the 50 days moving average. Both showed strong bullishness from the chart perspective (Last week note here: ) As a continuation of the rebound story, earlier there were some developments on the Chinese developers front, which there might be a distress revaluation opportunity for traders to make bets on . Update on Chinese Developers After almost 2 years since the Chinese government imposed “3 red lines” rules on developers, which later leaded to the Chinese high-yield bond collapse in 2021 (majority of Chinese high-yield are issued by the Chinese developer), on May-17 the Chinese government finally showed sign of relaxation on the crackdown, by supporting some developers to issue domestic bond to ease their cash insufficiency . This development is under the backdrop of Chinese economic slowdown, as well as poor monetary/fiscal policy transmission capability with weakened property market. As of today, there are 5 non-state-backed developers that have confirmed on the domestic bonds issue: Longfor (HKEX:960) Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Media Real Estate (HKEX:3990) CIFI Holding (HKEX:884) Seazen (HKEX:1030) Note that investors of the newly issued bond also have the option to get protection by purchasing the credit risk mitigation warrant (CRMW), of which China Securities Finance Corporation (state-owned) is the underwriter of the warrant . The important message here is that, in order for the Chinese government to take a “short-put” position, they must have vetted the Chinese developer names and shortlisted the above 5 companies for the most solid fundamentals (and political correctness). Essentially, the Chinese government is doing stock picking for us . Among this batch of developers, I would recommend Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007) . In the sector-wide distressed situation, companies with more deployable cash or financing capability actually have the optionality to acquire and consolidate weaker developers to strengthen their future market share. Longfor and Country Garden are the largest and healthiest financials among the list. Comparing Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007), the former actually have demonstrated stronger confidence among investors as one can tell from the severeness of price decline for the passed year. Hence if you are a less active investor who wants to buy this idea, go for Longfor (HKEX:960); for those who have the bandwidth for active management, Country Garden (HKEX:2007) might have more room for trading around positions with leverage. Trading Plan for Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Albeit the fact that I am writing a long side execution plan, please note that the stock technically is still in a bear trend, which we still see selling pressure near 20 and 50 days moving average . Hence this is not a trend following, but reversal-plus-breakout play, where more time is needed for the turnaround and breakout from the downtrend resistant levels . Right now the stock is flirting around the 20 days moving average. One might want to place some protective bet at current level (in case of sharp upside movement with overnight news), or wait for the following 2 key level for turnaround confirmation: 5.4-5.8 : 50 days moving average and May-3 spike 6.75 : Rebound peak from March market plummet For the bearish trend to continue, the stock must go through the 2 recent troughs. According to the trader’s conviction to the rebound stock, one might choose to scale in (i.e. average down the position cost) or scale out (i.e. partial cut loss) the position at these levels: 4.1 : May-12 bottom 3.3 : Mar-16 bottom, lowest price made in march market plummet In terms of trading vehicle selection, apart from holding the stock outright, good news is that Country Garden (HKEX:2007) also has stock options available for trade. By using call option one can be immune from sharp drawdown in case of overnight bearish news, also better cash management for the natural leveraged nature of options. Note that Hong Kong listed stock options are less liquid compared to those in the US, I would recommend to choose expiration less than 3-4 months for narrower spread and more active quotation .
HKEX:2007Long
by geoffreyip523
HANG SENG The 6 year Support is holding. Potential 25k move.Hang Seng (HSI) broke and closed today above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 2021. Despite the weakness since early April, the index hasn't yet broken or even come close to the March 16 low, indicating that we have a long-term Support. That is reasonable technically as that level (18250) is a 6 year Support formed by the February 12 2016 low and as long as it holds, pull-backs should keep finding buyers. The natural target next is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and towards the end of the year, the 0.618 Fib (around 25000), which would be a symmetrical move with the 2016 bullish break-out from the long-term correction. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:HSILong
by TradingShot
3
HANG SENG 30th MAY 2022In China, authorities are holding an unprecedented national meeting by teleconference in a bid to boost the economy hit by Covid-19. Investors' concerns about tightening monetary policy seem to have eased. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index led the strengthening of Asia-Pacific markets today. One of the driving factors was the soaring stock of Alibaba. Premier Li Keqiang also warned that China's current economic difficulties outweigh the severe shocks at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. So the bearish possibility could occur before they actually get out of the fight against the pandemic.
HSI:HSIShort
by DNP-FX
HSI TREND FOR 01 MAY TO 05 MAY========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. I hope everyone has bought on dips for the past four day, and here we go, the trend now meets the first pressure at 20850, only if the trend can stand above this pressure, then the uptrend will keeps going. IF THERE IS NO BAD NEWS, THE TREND WILL CONTINUE. ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSILong
by lsking0425
1
HSFI - Rebound or BreakdownComment : 1) HSFI has came closely to (e) Lv-2 target and a rebound today. Will it be reverse the trend upward or breakdown further more? 2) FundFlow+ indicator - Fund flow trend is still going downward 3) Tricol+ indicator - weak sentiment Support & Resistance : S : 25441+/- and 24211+/- Remark : - Length of ab = cd = de = ef DISCLAIMER: Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
HSI:HSFI
by TheWinningDay
HSFI - Reaching Lv-2 of retracementComment : 1) HSFI has come nearly to Lv-2 of retracement at 19642, if it breakdown Lv-2, next destination is Lv-3 at 18615 2) FundFlow+ indicator - Fund flow still going down, no sign of short-term reversal 3) Tricol+ indicator - weak/no banker sentiment bar (RED) Support & Resistance : S : 19642+/- DISCLAIMER: Analysis above SOLELY for case study purpose, not a PROFESSIONAL ADVISE. This analysis does not provide any trading advise and buy or sell. Trade at your own risk. Trade only after you have acknowledged and accepted the risks involved.
TVC:HSI
by TheWinningDay
HSI trend Prediction for 22 and 23 APRIL 2022========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. The trend has appeared oversold signal today, and it break through 20750, which means the trend will go down for a short period until it has searched its bottom. Therefore, we predict that 22-23 APRIL (Thursday and Friday) will godowntrend again before 20085, or go side retracement trend between 20750 - 20085. Our advise is: May start to buy on dips if it meets new low everytime, and observe it will rebounce or not before 20085, if not, may be careful ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSIShort
by lsking0425
1
HSI trend prediction for 19 April 2022 (One day only)========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. Now the trend go in sideway retracement almost One Month, and the next important change date will be at 19 April 2022. The trend is now between 20750 to 22500, now is waiting for a IMPORTANT NEWS to help change the trend in the future, and we predict it might come up during this weekend. Our suggestion : May buy on dip when it meets new low everytime, but if the trend break through 20750, the risk of downfall will become bigger and should have to observe whether the trend will refill the gap below 20750 or not. ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
Tencent .. my ten cents worth on it sharedQuick note... a good friend asked me about Tencent. Given the developments recently, as well as over the past year. There was some regret in not buying during the dip, but it was about risk management in catching a falling knife IMHO. Missing the boat is also another feeling, and it is perhaps something dangerous to feel when looking at charts. So, this is called planning the trade... and in doing so, we might expect a dip in the week of April 25 at about 320-350. IF it does play out to that, we can expect a bottoming pattern to form, and then start looking to go shopping. Not before. Here we are planning the shopping trip. For now, it remains as a plan. Wait for it... For you, my friend... just so we go live on what we spoke about.
HKEX:700
by Auguraltrader
HSI Trend Analysis for one day only 23 Mar 2022========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. Today the trend gap up open again, and surpass the resistance area of 21875. The future change date will be at 29 March 2022. We predict that the trend might probably go down and touch 21875 again today or tomorrow (24 Mar 2022). If the trend does not break through 21875 and go below, then the support will be strong enough to support the futher rebounce in future. Our suggestion is, may start to reduce the stock when meets the new high in this few days, and observe the trend whether will go below 21875 or further low 21495 and 20795. This few day the trade volume reduced half of the volume if compare to the time HSI rebounced at 16 Mar to 18 Mar. Most of the investors guess the trend might go down whenever, But there will be 30% of exception that the trend might go in a different way that out of the investors expectation. ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
HSI Trend Prediction of 21 Mar 2022 (One day only)========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. Last week, we have met the most horrible way to wash out investors chips in HSI stock market, then met the most powerful rebounce in two day. Therefore, most of the people will think about that, DOES THE REBOUNCE WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK? We will analysis this question by predicting ONE DAY ONLY trend at 21 Mar 2022. Since the NIGHT FUTURES closed at 22110, then it means that next Monday will be a gap up open trend. Then we should mark out TWO PRESSURES and TWO SUPPORT area in the chart. Our prediction as below : 1. IF THE TREND CAN REBOUNCE WHEN IT TOUCHED THE FIRST SUPPORTIVE LINE ONCE AND NEVER TOUCH IT AGAIN, THEN THE REBOUNCE MIGHT BE CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD. 2. iF THE TREND BREAK THROUGH FIRST SUPPORTIVE LINE AND REBOUNCE WHEN IT TOUCHED SECOND SUPPORTIVE LINE, THEN THE REBOUNCE MIGHT GO WEAK AND PROBABLY END THE REBOUNCE TREND AT TUESDAY 3. IF THE TREND FLIP DOWN WHEN IT TOUCH THE FIRST PRESSURE LINE AND CANT BREAK THROUGH AGAIN OR CANT GO HIGH AGAIN AFTER BREAK THROUGH, THEN THE TREND WILL BE END ON MONDAY 4. IF THE TREND FLIP DOWN AFTER IT BREAK THROUGH FIRST PRESSURE LINE AND FLIP DOWN WHEN IT TOUCHED SECOND PRESSURE, THEN THE KEY POINT WILL BE THE TREND CAN MAINTAIN ABOVE THE FIRST PRESSURE LINE OR NOT? IF CAN, THEN MIGHT HAS ONE MORE DAY UP TREND AGAIN. IF NOT, THEN THEN TREND WILL END. 5. IF THE TREND REBOUNCE AND FLIP DOWN BETWEEN FIRST SUPPORTIVE AND FIRST PRESSURE AREA AND CANT HAS A EFFECTIVENESS BREAK THROUGH IN ONEDAY, DEPEND ON THE TRADE VOLUME, IT MIGHT BE DEALER TRY TO WASH OUT THE UNSTABLE CHIPS, AND SEARCH A GOOD CHANCE TO CREATE NEW HIGH AGAIN. = ===================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
HSI Index - Worse than the 2008 financial crisis?The Chinese stock market crash may be worse than the 2008 crisis! Fundamenta Aspect Everyone is concerned about the decline in the value of Chinese companies' stock and the resulting decrease in demand for commodities! Today, selling pressure on Chinese stocks grew. China's major stock index fell to its lowest level since 2008 due to concerns about its relations with Russia and tighter regulators pressure. The Hong Kong Index of Chinese Companies, a measure of Hong Kong stock prices for Chinese firms, declined by 6.6%. Likewise, the stock prices of Chinese companies dropped sharply the day before yesterday, since July 2015, this has been the largest fall. Economic sanctions against China are a concern for the market due to China's ties to Russia. Concerns have also been raised about the quarantine of Chinese cities. Analysts are concerned that this time around's financial market catastrophe could be even worse than the one that occurred in 2008.
TVC:HSI
by VipForexLive
HSI trend prediction for 14 March to 18 March 2022========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Greetings, now i would like to share some of my opinion of HSI trending. Apparently, we may find that the trend is now going sideway retracement, and waiting for a chance to change the trend. We all know the war and the increase rate of USA are all going together in this short period, it may influence the stock market in short period, BUT NOT IN LONG PERIOD. I believe everyone have read enough news, so i will not repeat the content again. For HSI trend, we expect it might go in a sideway box between 21330 to 20000, may possibily break through 20000 and go to 19800 too. AS LONG AS THE TREND DID NOT BREAK THROUGH THE FINAL SUPPORTVE LINE OF 19800, THE SIDEWAY TREND WILL NOT BE CHANGED IN SHORT PERIOD UNTIL SOME GOOD NEWS IS COMING UP. THEREFORE, IT COULD BE SAID AS THE BEST CHANCE TO BUY ON DIP WHEN MEETS EVERY NEW LOW IN SHORT PERIOD. IF THE TREND SEARCHING BOTTOM MODE IS OVER, WE WILL ADVISE TO YOU ALL ASAP. BUT IN SHORT PERIOD, IT WONT CHANGE. ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSI
by lsking0425
2
The important prediction for the HSI trend 09 March 2022========================== ====== DISCLAIMER ========== ============================= This chart and trend analysis is MERELY an OPINION, not the PROFESSIONAL ADVISE This analysis does not provide any trading suggestion and ask for selling and buying, please be responsible for your own investment behaviour And we do not be responsible for your own loss Also, the future might change anytime and everything won't go as what we predicted, so please accept this analysis as an entertainment, don't be serious about fail prediction or wrong concept and prediction. Thank you. ========================= Analysis Start ( GOOGLE TRANSLATE) ========================= Today we have observed a important signal of HSI, therefore we would like to share with you all faster. Now the HSI trend has gone to 20102 this afternoon, and then it started to rebounce until 20600 above. The trade volume is increased this three day, But the decline began to shrink, and the trend is becoming a FAKE TRHEE CROW OF BLACK CANDLE. What is this mean? It means THIS IS PROBABLY A BEST CHANCE TO BUY ON DIP. If you check the Moving Average of HSI Month Period, you will find that the trend has touched the 250 MA. If the trend can close above 250 MA (20615), today will PROBABLY to be the last day of the bottom searching of HSI. Unless there is another war happen or new virus be found in future. I hope this trend analysis prediction may give you some clue to make decision ====================== At last, all the prediction above IS MERELY AN OPNION, and probably won't go as we predicted, so please jsut accept all this prediction as a entertainment . Hope all of you may gain more and more profit in Stock market, good luck
TVC:HSILong
by lsking0425
1