NASDAQ reaching end of Capitulation? Or only half way there?Every investor should ask themselves, are we in store for the usually 20-30% correction?
Or are we in store for a market meltdown, similar to the Mortgage Backed Security collapse of 2007-2009?
Or the Dot Com bubble during in 2001-2002?
I have the most recent corrections in history highlighted, their reasons listed.
> It is clear that the current situation and correction is more serious, than those in recent history. It has more drivers to the downside than the last 3 corrections.
> It is also clear that the global economy isn't collapsing with like in 2008. In that recession, $10.2 Trillion alone was wiped from the American economy alone. That's not including the hit to Global Wealth, resulting in the elimination of many more Trillions.
> It is further clear, current tech equities are not as overvalued as in the Dot Com bubble. I cannot deny that there has been an increasing number of Unicorns and IPOs entering the market. The majority of which have already had their values demolished. One only has to look at the recent SPACs, to see the smack these "Vision over Reality" companies have received from the market.
>>> I believe we are more likely in a 20-30% correction, rather than a meltdown of 50-70%. Long term stocks go up.
Historyrepeatsitself
Understanding Bitcoin from a different perspective #4
On November 19th, Finney praises Satoshi for some revisions and inquires about the Bitcoin network's aspired size, which would effect scalability and performance. 'How big do you think it will get? Hundreds of nodes? Thousands? Millions?’ This foreshadowed the scaling discussion, which eventually resulted in the emergence of splinter cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin cash and so-called layer 2 solutions like sidechains and the Lightning Network.
In an unusual step, the Bitcoin Community issues a quarterly report, and values remain remarkably stable for such a typically volatile currency. For the quarter, the website received over 7 million page views, three new wallets were introduced to the page for users to choose from, over 114 new pages of developer documentation were provided, and translations for 26 languages were uploaded.
In March, the Bitcoin Foundation welcomes a new member, and it appears that Olivier Janssens' first order of business is to reveal a slew of Bitcoin secrets in a Reddit post, claiming that the Foundation is "effectively bankrupt" due to "two years of ridiculous spending and poorly thought out decisions." According to his exposé, the Bitcoin Foundation had almost no money left, had fired 90% of its employees.
Prices had been hovering between $220 and $240 for the past few months, but on June 16, Bitcoin peaks at $252.05. The price increase was attributed to the situation of the Greek economy, according to some. At first glance, it may appear to be an insane correlation, but the Greek economy was in bad shape. Bank accounts may even be frozen if the country defaults on its credit obligations. In that event, digital currency may be the primary means in and out of the country. This was the first case where we see bitcoin being considered as a viable solution to traditional finances limitations by a sovereign country.
Bitcoin Core developers Mike Hearn and Gavin Andresen have released Bitcoin XT, a new, slightly modified version of the software. Fears of a split drive price volatility . The issue boils down to a disagreement over the size of the chain's blocks. Andresen, Hearn, and their followers claimed that as the currency grew in popularity, the blocks should be increased in size. They cautioned that if this did not happen, Bitcoin would fall down a "capacity cliff," where all of its blocks would become full, causing a backlog of transactions . This would flood the network with data, causing long delays and potentially raising rates. Bitcoin XT proposed increasing the block size from 1MB to 8MB as a solution.
However, the publication of the new software alarmed many individuals since it presented the chance that the Bitcoin community might be unable to agree on a size. Consensus is crucial in a decentralized group, and a lasting dispute could lead to a permanent split. This time, though, it didn't go as planned: few miners chose Bitcoin XT, and the alternative software eventually died out around mid-2016. However, the prospect of a hard fork continued to worry the market, and the price fell from $261.46 on August 15 to $209.72 on August 24.
The EU has declared no VAT on Bitcoin exchanges and declared it a legitimate currency, which is a huge gain for crypto. By contrast, the US government classed Bitcoin as a commodity in September. The European ruling was as well-received, and Bitcoin's new tax-free status drew traders and drove the price back up to $300.
"Bitcoin has failed," declares Mike Hearn, a Bitcoin Core engineer who had previously built the alternative Bitcoin XT software. He's also the person to whom Satoshi Nakamoto allegedly wrote his "resignation" email in October of 2013. "The fundamentals are broken," Hearn wrote on Medium, and "whatever happens to the price in the short term, the long term trend should definitely be lower." He claimed to have sold all of his coins and warned that "the network is on the verge of technical failure."Bitcoin, of course, is still in use after all these years.
The first successful Zero-Knowledge Contingent Payment (ZKCP) on the Bitcoin network has been announced. Prices have risen by 2%. Zero-Knowledge Contingent Payment is a transaction protocol that allows a buyer to buy information from a seller anonymously and securely using Bitcoin; simply, you don't have to trust anyone because no information is transferred unless the payment is made.
The Japanese government has approved a bill that recognizes virtual currencies as being equivalent to real money, with the ability to make payments and the ability to be moved digitally. This is a significant step forward, as many other countries are still struggling with the role that cryptocurrencies may or should play. The Payment Services Act Amendment Bill was aimed to put the industry under the oversight of Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) and introduce new registration requirements for virtual currency exchanges, as well as overseas exchanges that provide services to Japanese users. It also imposed a slew of additional regulations on cryptocurrency exchanges, such as recordkeeping, annual reporting, and anti-money laundering compliance.
After a few weeks of reasonably stable overall price performance, despite volatility in daytime trading, Bitcoin hits a closing price of $467.42, its highest since September 2014. Increased usage of cryptocurrency technology in general is thought to be the reason for the surge. Intel (INTC) announced plans to employ blockchain technology, Storj, a new blockchain technology developer, joined the Microsoft (MSFT) Azure blockchain, and the UK announced plans to use blockchain to track taxpayer money on April 26.
The second halving is approaching. People are ecstatic, and Bitcoin is benefiting. It's shaping up to be one for the books, with a 10% price increase for May . There were a few theories as to what caused the May surge, but it was most likely a mix of factors. Ethereum, a rival currency, had entered the market a few months prior, attracting more attention to the digital currency ecosystem globally and finally giving Bitcoin some meaningful competition. The prospect of a halving was also generating enthusiasm in the UK market.Having started the month at $448.43, May closed at $531.84, and June only got better.
Written by neotrader.
cryptoverse2.blogspot.com
DJI: It doesn't get simpler than thisThe DJI has been reinflated from after the COVID crash, by 'cheap' money coming out of reckless monetary and fiscal policy.
The value of the market has been over-inflated by some 15 times its true value.
Fundamentals are almost never seen in charts like these - which only show 'price' (not value).
A man-made 'virus' called war, looms. Not to mention - which is to mention - that the FED who have propped up this market (and others) is in big trouble.
Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
UP or DOWN, what do you think?On weekly chart,
- Negative signal RSI, BTC need a positive divergence signal.
RSI < 50, BITSTAMP:BTCUSD down in range 70-80% from ATHs.
Right now, BTC just downed more 50%. So it's done? Maybe not yet.
But when zoom in
BTC has been downing more 35K equivalent to previous times. If the decreasing has done, BTC comes back to the race go up to 79K.
Unless, we have a support at 20K.
Time will tell!
A glimpse to a Bitcoin-FractalThe past few Weeks were pretty hard and boring for Bitcoin. It's far from funny to watch the Charts at this current moment. I KNOW!
Still, I think there are some things to consider and look out for. Foremost, Bitcoin still is heavy correlated to the traditional Markets, like it was observable yesterday (DJI, SPX, NDX). The Markets are driven by Fear, you can't expect rational decision-making right now, but hey that's how it goes, right?
What I actually wanted to have a look at, was a Fractal from Mid-2021. Bitcoin is in a similar scenario right now. Definitely, history does not always repeat, but it rhymes (pretty sure you head that a lot).
Analysis Mid 2021 to now
Drop after a Weak "Death Cross" (don't get fooled by this - look here )
Price slowing decline over the course of 30-40 days
RSI went deep to 22.24 and started to reverse slowly
MACD Moving Averages slowly started to reverse, leaving us with some nice "Waves"
Compared to the current situation, it is indeed somehow similar. Price would still need to decline a bit. Sadly, the RSI does not match at all.
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This Analysis is not intended to be investment advice. Always DYOR.
$BNB support/resistance zoneBINANCE:BNBPERP has knocked on this zone twice in recent history.
Using no indicators and just very rudimental historic data would suggest it to be rejected at least one time before coming in for the crucial test of resistance.
Up or down after that is a different matter, I'm just suggesting to keep an eye on this zone.
SUPER EXTENDED MOMENTUMThis super extended momentum from 2009 low has the potential to reach 5,000 levels.
From 1990 to 2009, there were two major corrections ranging from 50 to 60 percent from its high. And from 2009 to 2020 and up to the present, there have been about 10 to 35 percent correction to form this impulsive wave. Assuming the SPX500 will reach 5,000 levels or 650 percent for its new high from the 2009 low, also expect a 40 to 50 percent correction from its high ranging 3,000 to 2,500 levels.
This kind of my view is based only on price action, price movement and market cycle theories, and what I see based on the history of the chart, it has no other basis or reason for this view to happen or not to happen.
Bitcoin break out, And now we wait..I think this chart speaks for itself. Bitcoin has broken out of a descending channel, which not only is it textbook bullish; it looks to be repeating the last breakout move at the end of September. From the beginning of October to now, it had repeated the move from July to early September almost exactly. The Fear and Greed levels on the 12HR havent been this fearful since the July bottom Will history repeat? Time will tell if this breakout confirms. Now we wait..
BTC can be goes up!Hello world. I think BITCOIN can reach 120,000$ or 160,000$.
A repetitive behavior is seen in history. The head and shoulders are reversed and the neckline is broken and it is possible for it to move upwards again after retracement move! The lowest support area can be between 52,000$ and 53,000$.
This is a personal opinion. If that's happening, it's wonderful! Do you think it is possible?
Warning: This is not a buy and sell offer.
Small correction for BTC/USDT | Big Pump AfterwardsGreetings,
In the chart you will see the slogan "history repeats itself" depicted on the price of BTC/USDT.
Bulls are taking profits since the second pump of the price of the mother of cryptocurrencies.
This is taking the price downwards but that doesn't need to scare us.
The second wave is incoming as the bulls are accumulating while the bears are selling.
This process is taking the price downwards to the green area marked as "Buy zone after correction".
Once we reach the green by zone, the price will see a pump of around 50%-60%.
After the third pump we will see All time highs for BTC.
This is not a financial advise as it's my view for the price of BTC. Never trade without making your own analysis and be smart when it comes to money.
Will History Repeat?Almost exactly one year ago the 50 day crossed below the 200 day. Shortly after the price skyrocketed on earnings. Will history repeat itself or is it going to be a nursery rhyme that ends with our hero being devoured by a bear?
Those that don’t know teach, and those that don’t know technical analysis use the esoteric approach.
BTCUSDT: History may repeat itself, just at a smaller scale THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE. Do your own research. This is just my thoughts on BTCUSDT
History may be repeating itself, just at a smaller scale. Current price movement and indicator behavior from August 2021 to September 2021 is similar to the price movement from February 2021 to May 2021.
In case the charts can't explain enough the similarities between the time periods, I will elaborate
1. Wedge with resistance hit 3 times and support hit 2 times before a breakdown(Breakout in reverse)
2. RSI Divergences
3. 100SMA stopping any downside movement
4. Breakdown candles have long wicks and break the 8SMA of the low(red MA)
More Conditions needed for the history repeat to be fulfilled
1. 100SMA Should be broken after a short bounce
2. Sharp drop after 100SMA broken
It will be interesting to see how this analysis plays out. Will history repeat itself? Drop a comment below on your thoughts
Thank you for reading. Drop a comment below for feedback, and like and follow if you like the analysis and want more analysis by me. See you!
$BTC/USD Technical Analysis of the Full Moon on September 2020Blessings family of traders, may you are well and in peace, and hopefully having some nice profits today. I want to share you what happened exactly 1 year ago during the last Full Moon on September 2020. Understanding our past is key to have a better use of our present possibilities under similar circumstances.
Again, let's go quickly thorugh the basics of Moon Trading :
The day of the Full Moon usually is the lowest price of the month, sometimes this could be around 2 to 3 days prior or after the Full Moon.
The day of the New Moon usually is the highest price of the month, sometimes this could be around 2 to 3 days prior or after the New Moon.
The period between a Full Moon and a New Moon is two weeks, through which prices go up.
The period between a New Moon and a Full Moon is two weeks, through which prices go down.
Now, keeping this on mind, in the Full Moon on September 2020, $BTC had a fall of %18.81. To have even more perspective, in the Full Moon on September 2019 $BTC had a fall of %26.25. In the Full Moon on September 2018 $BTC had a fall of %7.36.
The question is, how deep is the fall in the Full Moon on September 2021? The answer so far: %12.15.
If we take these numbers as parameters, we can easily think that we are above the minimum (2018) but under the maximum (2019) which it could indicate there is a little bit more of room to keep falling, even the double, as it happened on 2019.
What have these Full Moons on September from each year in common? They all did rise again after the fall, and usually is kind of part of the rules, what it rises too much surely will fall, and what it falls too much must rise again.
Be patient, plan your entry and then do as you have planned.The best moment to buy usually is when the MACD's blue lines crosses above the red, and when the RSI is oversold/undervalued. Not yet there, but once we are be ready.
In a crisis there are two kind of people, those who cry and those who sell tissues. Which one are you? Let me know in the comments!
Keep an eye on it and let's make some nice profits with this amazing Moon Trading strategy! And remember to share this information so many more souls could become financially free and live a purposeful life!
This is not financial advice but for educational purposes only. Always do your own diligent research.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
How deep will Bitcoin fall?Bitcoin is gonna repeat itself, but how deep is Bitcoin gonna fall? Is it falling to where it came from so the 1 level? Is it falling to the big big support of 28K? Or is it gonna fall exactly the same amount of usdt? With the other markets like DJI and SPX falling and DXY rising it is very likely that BTC is gonna fall. The RSI is also interesting.
This is an update on my previous idea.
TATAMOTOR RETAILERS CAUGHT ON HIGHER LEVEL IN JULY -2021 HOW???In any stock breakout is very important, At the day was in july where TATAMOTOR fallen 10% and hit the LowerCircuit, That level was unexpected it has did breakout for UC and suddenly on fall has destroy all analysis.... We should be learn from this never enter in opposite direction breakout in any scripts..... Example is here where as intraday trader has did how much big loss and If i think about Option buyer trader..... I can't say what he/she felt.... Witout SL peoples ki to baaat hi kuch aur hogi.... So ultimately We should learn here Opposite breakout, Skip that stock.... And SL put surely.... Target bad me rakhna pehle SL rakhna Zaroori hai.
Sabse badhia baat bataye to inidcators ne pehle hi sanket de diya tha ki ye bearish trade hai bullish breakout consider kar hi nahi sakte hum.
#Education_purpose_only
#Learnfrompasthistory
#Biggestfallintatamotorsinjuly
#history
#Learnbeforeearn
Where are we on the cycle of #BITCOIN, this chart explains.we are obviously up against 26EMA resistance, this chart clearly shows where we are in the Bitcoin cycle. be prepared for it to play out exactly as it has in the past. this should be a roadmap of what can be expected should Bitcoin act exactly as it has in the past, and i get more and more confident this scenario plays to a T as the days go on, i say slow grind down over the next 4 weeks providing a local bottom at or around 25K a bounce back to current levels and then some serious red, down to the 7-9 k level, this is not overall bearish, but a very Bullish scenario. BTC cannot go straight up with out corrections. Good Luck Traders.
Gold vs BTC a historical comparisonA comparison of corrections for Gold and Btc, Gold as a less volatile and slower market takes around 8-12 times longer for the duration of submoves and also the bigger move. Similar steps are made, for example a few lows at a certain support before the 4th one breaks it and 2 more follow (for Gold). So far Btc follows a similar trend in terms of duration (if you divide by around 10) and price action (formation of lows). If this continues on it would give more room for lower lows and a time window towards August and September, which historically arent the strongest months for crypto as well. Then we could start a new uptrend from that floor.